Africa has a COVID-19 time bomb to defuse
Tolbert Nyenswah
Senior research associate, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Africa’s healthcare systems will be overwhelmed when coronavirus cases escalate.

Africa has little hope of support when countries like the US cannot supply its healthcare workers with personal protective equipment.

In Liberia, the first case of COVID-19 came from someone who brought the disease from Switzerland. This traveller’s household cook was the next in Liberia to test positive for the infection.

This is not the way it is supposed to work. According to the stereotypes, it is the working class in the slums of a non-industrialized country – in this story, that would be the cook – who transfers the infection to the traveller, who then brings the contagion to the industrialized nation. But we do not live in stereotypical times.

Think back to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa a few years back. Seven out of the 28,646 suspected cases escaped the African continent in three and a half years and yet the industrialized world was in a full-scale panic.

Today, it is the industrialized world that is exporting an infectious disease to the global south. While not as deadly as Ebola, COVID-19 is far more contagious.

Africa, with its long underfunded healthcare systems, is a time bomb just waiting to explode. The first few dozens of COVID-19 infections were detected in March, but the virus probably arrived weeks or months before.

In Africa, deaths from COVID-19 might far exceed what the world is witnessing right now unless major steps are taken. But we have little hope for substantial financial support when countries like the US cannot afford to properly supply its healthcare workers with personal protective equipment (PPE).

In hearing stories of workers trying to make their own visors and re-using surgical masks, I think back to the Ebola outbreak when we in Liberia were compelled to do the same. The lack of PPE had a catastrophic effect: 192 health workers died in Liberia from Ebola and related causes.

And yet, with a virus this dangerous, the international community should invest in all countries needing help, from the US to Liberia to anywhere else, because to do otherwise would allow this infection to continue its virulent march around the world.

Sub-Saharan Africa is disproportionally affected by communicable diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. Non-communicable diseases such as heart attacks and cancer are on the rise, coupled with frequent outbreaks of diseases such as Ebola, measles, meningitis, and monkeypox. Health systems are severely challenged: they have unreliable stocks of essential medicines; little to no electricity; high medical fees for patients; and poor access to health facilities. We have some of the worst child and maternal morbidity and mortality rates on the planet.

There isn’t much in Africa standing in the way of COVID-19. It is one of the fastest-moving and hardest-hitting pandemics in human history. This is a looming threat to the over 1.2 billion people on the continent of Africa. The high-income countries that bear much of the healthcare costs in Africa are confronted with the COVID-19 fight themselves.

To be honest, unless we obtain more support, we may never know the true impact of COVID-19. Liberia’s healthcare system was able to identify these first two cases and track down their contacts – as a top-line system should. Many other African countries are also ahead of the curve, thanks to our experiences with Ebola.

But once the cases escalate, even the best of systems will be overwhelmed. And this pandemic will never end if we cannot root out all of the infections it causes, even in the poorest of countries. As we see with other infectious diseases like tuberculosis, once they find a home in the slums and other impoverished places around the world, infections will always escape out and threaten the wealthier regions.

The Ebola epidemic that raged through West Africa was an existential threat to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. A challenge to governments around the world, it severely threatened international public health systems in ways they have never been challenged before.

And yet, even as the first few months of COVID-19 has hit harder than Ebola, there is one lesson learned that many of us will never forget.

We are all on this planet together. You may not be able to wall off diseases like COVID-19 and Ebola, but you also cannot wall off the common bonds of humanity that all of us share. If we are to get through this pandemic – and we will, because humans are a stubborn species – we will get through it together, by providing support to the more impoverished parts of the world. This chapter of our history does not have to end so darkly.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/africa-covid-19-time-bomb-defuse/

Mr. Ponkins shut up

I know you were hoping that Africa would be overwhelmed by Chinese virus by now but our God is alive

I won't say a word until you are able to contain new york poor medical catastrophe

tbaba long time no see

I remembered you and maclatunji fighting viscously for the removal of gej by always posting falsehood just to make sure bubu comes to power.

now you have stated posting rubbish which is your stock in trade.

Gabon has just declare the country corona virus free what sayest thou

tbab
tbaba1
tbaba12
tbaba123
tbaba1234
tbaba12345

that was you keep changing your user name

it come to a great shock when African would be able to defeat the virus and come out clean

fairfora:
Thank you Seun...its a hard fact that WHO and the west would never tell you. I harped on our unprecedented temperature rise here, which was a reason for the minimal spread, considering how illiterate and careless the populace is but some never-ready-to-learn on NL took swipe at me. In an extremely cold weather especially when abroad, when I speak, heavy vapour would be coming out of my mouth as if I'm puffing out cigar smoke. Whatever is released in the air stays awhile before it fizzles. Covid-19 easily get spread in a cold region than it does in a hot weather. In like-manner, if you touch any metal or stainless steel in the winter, the finger print remains obvious for a long time.

Those local cases reported were exceptional. They were mainly lovers who had lodged in a hotel since the day the partner arrived in the country. There's AC always in the hotel room. The driver who has been taking the index case upandan inside a chilled uber ride to as far as ekiti tested positive....another proof

as usual that was how you people causes unnecessary tensions creation fears in the mind of the Nigerians to vote in buhari

Seun:
Effect Of Temperature On COVID-19: An Unscientific Investigation.

In the early days of the Coronavirus scourge, many Nigerians believed that we wouldn't be affected because of our hot weather. Now that we're testing people, we have seen a sharp increase in the number of confirmed cases, to about 210, which is still quite low for a country with 190 million residents. However many people suspect that the virus has penetrated our society far more deeply than the NCDC statistics suggest. We've noticed that people who travelled to colder countries recently or spend most of their time in air-conditioned spaces, or their direct contacts, are massively over-represented among the confirmed cases. Is this because they are the only ones being tested, or is heat a factor?

Here is the list of the 10 countries that have the highest number of active COVID-19 cases, and their forecasted temperatures for the day:
* USA has 257,790 active cases. The temperature forecast for New York is 8°C - 15°C.
* Italy has 85,388 active cases. The temperature forecast for Rome is 7°C - 25°C.
* Spain has 77,488 active cases. The temperature forecast for Madrid is 6°C - 19°C
* Germany has 65,309 active cases. The temperature forecast for Berlin is 1°C - 12°C
* France has 61,650 active cases. The temperature forecast for Paris is 6°C - 17°C
* UK has 34,428 active cases. The temperature forecast for London is 4°C - 16°C
* Iran has 31,954 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tehran is 8°C - 19°C
* Turkey has 20,012 active cases. The temperature forecast for Istanbul is 8°C - 11°C
* Switzerland has 14,169 active cases. The temperature forecast for Geneva is 3°C - 17°C
* Netherlands has 13,986 active cases. The temperature forecast for Amsterdam is 4°C - 14°C

On average, the top ten countries with Coronavirus have a temperature forecast of 5.5 - 16.5°C. The temperature forecast for Lagos is 26°C - 34°C, and for Abuja, it's 24°C - 36°C. This is a massive, massive difference! The maximum temperature of nine of the countries above is lower than the minimum temperature of Lagos. The maximum temperature of 7 of those countries is lower than the minimum thermostat setting of most Nigerian air-conditioners (18°C).

The countries mentioned above are in Africa, Asia or Europe. What about Africa? Here's our top 5:
* South Africa has 1,401 active cases. The temperature forecast for Johannesburg is 9°C - 15°C.
* Algeria has 1,004 active cases. The temperature forecast for Algiers is 9°C - 17°C.
* Egypt has 703 active cases. The temperature forecast for Cairo is 24°C - 34°C.¹
* Tunisia has 472 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tunis is 8°C - 17°C.
* Burkina Faso has 236 active cases. The temperature forecast for Ouagadougou is 28°C - 43°C. ^1
1 The Egypt data is misleading because the their average temperature last month was 11.6°C to 26°C, but Burkina Faso is a legitimate outlier; the country is much hotter than Nigeria.

The above data, in spite of the outlier, is enough to convince me that the Coronavirus likes cold weather and probably spreads faster in cold places, such as air-conditioned cars, offices, and homes. This, apart from the lack of testing, may explain why we are yet to see as many cases of transmission outside the circles of travellers and the rich and powerful in Nigeria as expected. It is consistent with what we know about other respiratory illnesses, and why countries like the US expect the disease to slow down in their summer season (starting from June).

When I see videos of Lagos officials spraying open areas e.g. roads & sidewalks in Lagos, I have to laugh, because I strongly suspect that, if they actually bothered to test for the presence of the virus on those surfaces, they'd find nothing at all because the sun already sterilized them.

Knowing that the virus hates our hot temperature gives me hope. If a cold country like South Korea (0°C -13°C forecast for today) could beat the virus without destroying their economy by imposing a total lockdown, a constantly hot country like Nigeria could do much better if we used the same tactics. We need to start testing people who have had close contact with confirmed cases before they show symptoms. We also need to enforce universal wearing of face-masks and social distancing everywhere, which in itself may even be sufficient to end the virus.

May your days be bright and hot. May your air-conditioners be off and your windows wide open (to get rid of aerosolized droplets). Cheers.

PS: I always make a lot of mistakes when I post long articles, so if you spot any errors, omissions, or false statements, please correct me.

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