The US Is Dramatically Overcounting Coronavirus Deaths

Over 86,500 people have reportedly died in the United States from the Coronavirus, and the fear generated by those deaths is driving the public policy debate. But that number is a dramatic overcount. Our metrics include deaths that have nothing to do with the virus. The problem is even worse as the Centers for Disease Control over counts even some of these cases and the government has created financial incentives for this misreporting. Relying on these flawed numbers is destroying businesses and jobs and costing lives.


“The case definition is very simplistic,” Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of Illinois Department of Public Health, explains. “It means, at the time of death, it was a COVID positive diagnosis. That means, that if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means, technically even if you died of clear alternative cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it’s still listed as a COVID death.”

Medical examiners in Michigan use the same definition. In Macomb and Oakland Counties, where most of the deaths occurred, medical examiners classify any deaths as Coronavirus deaths when the postmortem test is positive. Even people who died in suicides and automobile accidents meet that definition.

Still, these broad definitions are not due to a few rogue public health officials. The rules direct them to do this. Unlike other countries, “if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” as Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, recently noted.

Classifications go beyond even these broad categories. New York is classifying cases as Coronavirus deaths even when postmortem tests have been negative. Despite negative tests, classifications are based on symptoms, even though the symptoms are often very similar to those of the seasonal flu. The Centers for Disease Control guidance explicitly acknowledges the uncertainty that doctors can face. When Coronavirus cases are “suspected,” they advise doctors that “it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate.”


That isn’t just a theoretical issue. On April 21st, when New York City’s death toll rose above 10,000, the New York Times reported that the city included “3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive” – a more than 50 percent increase in the number of cases.

But the problem is worse than this broad definition implies. Birx and others believe that the CDC is over counting cases. The Washington Post reports they are concerned that the CDC’s “antiquated” accounting system is double counting cases and inflating mortality and case counts “by as much as 25 percent.”

There are additional reasons for concern. Some doctors feel pressure from hospitals to list deaths as due to the Coronavirus, even when they don’t believe that is the case, “to make it look a little bit worse than it is.” There are financial incentives that might make a difference for hospitals and doctors. The CARES Act adds a 20 percent premium for COVID-19 Medicare patients.

Incentives matter. When the government increased the disability compensation for air traffic controllers, a lot more controllers suddenly started claiming to be disabled. When unemployment insurance payments increase, more people become unemployed and stay unemployed for longer periods. When the government offers flood insurance that charges everyone the same insurance premium regardless of the risk level in their area, more people build homes in frequently flooded areas.


The Washington Post and others claim that we are undercounting the true number of deaths. They reach that conclusion by showing the total number of deaths from all causes is greater than we would normally expect from March through early May, and that this excess is actually due to deaths not being accurately labeled as due to the Coronavirus. But these are simply not normal times. Lots of people with heart and other problems aren’t going to the hospital for fear of the virus. Surgeries for many serious conditions are being put off. The stress of the situation is increasing suicides and other illnesses.

Deaths that have absolutely nothing to do with the Coronavirus count as virus deaths. Add to that claims that the CDC is double counting some of these improperly identified cases and the perverse financial incentives created by the government, and you have a real mess when crucial decisions are being made based in large part on this data.

Erroneous data unduly scare people about the risks of the disease. It keeps the country locked down longer than necessary, which destroys peoples’ lives and livelihoods in many other ways. Exaggerated fears of the virus endanger lives by keeping people from obtaining treatment for other medical problems. It also makes it impossible to accurately compare policies across countries.

It is hard to believe that we are basing such crucial decisions on such flawed data.


Lott is the president of the Crime Prevention Research Center. Allen is a Governor of the College of American Pathologists and Professor and Chair of the Department of Pathology at the University of Mississippi Medical Center. He is also on the Board of Directors and the Academic advisory board for the Crime Prevention Research Center.



https://townhall.com/columnists/johnrlottjr/2020/05/16/the-us-is-dramatically-overcounting-coronavirus-deaths-n2568925

Nigeria would do worse ,because currently the only sickness in Nigeria is covid 19

Corruption everywhere...

So whats killing them?

These ones dont hv problems.

They shd come to nigeria and see how each state Governor is fighting hard to top the table as if its Premier League

I've been wondering what the government will gain or has gained by shutting the economy and killing businesses by raising false alarms on this Covid-19.

To what ends really?

LibertyRep:
I've been wondering what the government will gain or has gained by shutting the economy and killing businesses by raising false alarms on this Covid-19.

To what ends really?

I don't think it's false alarm, government all over the world are losing a lot of money because of covid-19

LibertyRep:
I've been wondering what the government will gain or has gained by shutting the economy and killing businesses by raising false alarms on this Covid-19.

To what ends really?

follow the money. Did u read through. They just passed a bill worth 3 trillion dollars for the covid 19. Also u have to know that the top henchmen at the CDC are calling the shots and have a lot to gain when they eventually release the vaccine

If US is over counting, then Nigeria is still learning.

the fear of coro is the beginning of wisdom oo. if person get carttarh, cough and headache come go hospital no body will attend to that person cos na coro dem go call am. many people have dead because of the negligence from the health workers in public hospitals. may God save us oo

We are a big problem here in NG.
The problem is, we don't even know we have a prob

Rather they have the problem of under counting.
There are under counting issues in almost all countries.

All I can say is that the number of confirmed cases in Nigeria is overcounting. Common malaria fever is counted as Covid-19

A neighbor of mine recently had typhoid fever. I must confess, if he had gone to hospital, they would have said he has Covid-20.

Oh, so Nigerian government copied it from you people. Here, even malaria is covid.

Good for them.

nairamaniac:
These ones dont hv problems.

They shd come to nigeria and see how each state Governor is fighting hard to top the table as if its Premier League

Not true, where do you factor Kogi and Cross River, even Rivers in your all states assertion? On the contrary, I don't think any state is fighting to top Covid-19 cases. To what end exactly? Shutdown their economies? Reduce revenues? Job lost? etc. The theory is just a figment of imagination of a few

That's quite unprofessional of them.. but like it has been widely reported, the virus kills people with pre-existing medical conditions more.

US is over counting and instead of comments should be focused on US, they are busy dragging Nigeria. All because they still don't wanna admit US is lying about figures too.

Everybody thinks US is a Saint.

My friend in CV told me policemen will extort you and write down your phone number /address if you are caught without a face mask. You will be added to the Covid-19 stat

As far as human element remains a part of fact-findings, data collection and collation, the possibility of overrepresentation and underreporting is sacrosanct.

NCDC's data shows less than 180 deaths, meanwhile, more than 400 people, as reported recently, died in Kano in 2 weeks. None of these deaths in Kano, Jigawa, etc. made the NCDC database because of unverifiable audio autopsy.

China was also accused of underreporting. It's not a new phenomenon. Doesn't mean the act of overrepresentation or underreporting is always deliberate.

jeswinner:
My friend in CV told me policemen will extort you and write down your phone number /address if you are caught without a face mask. You will be added to the Covid-19 stat

Your friend told you? This is how people spread senseless rumour around Nairaland.

cruxgemmata:
US is over counting and instead of comments should be focused on US, they are busy dragging Nigeria. All because they still don't wanna admit US is lying about figures too.

Everybody thinks US is a Saint.

Overcounting is still better than undercounting.

tamdun:

I don't think it's false alarm, government all over the world are losing a lot of money because of covid-19

Seems they succeeded in making u believe that already
Smh.........

False info

nairamaniac:
These ones dont hv problems.

They shd come to nigeria and see how each state Governor is fighting hard to top the table as if its Premier League

Of course

bid4rich:
All I can say is that the number of confirmed cases in Nigeria is overcounting. Common malaria fever is counted as Covid-19

A neighbor of mine recently had typhoid fever. I must confess, if he had gone to hospital, they would have said he has Covid-20.

lol USA own is worse. Death from flu, heart attack, lung cancer etc are now nonexistent. If you look at the opposition party there all they are campaigning with is the death toll.

nairamaniac:
These ones dont hv problems.

They shd come to nigeria and see how each state Governor is fighting hard to top the table as if its Premier League

lol

Odinvahala:
Nigeria would do worse ,because currently the only sickness in Nigeria is covid 19

Nigeria is already over- counting covid cases and death.

If USA is overcounting then Nigeria must be highercounting