Table below main article. http://www.thisdayonline.com/PDP's Grip on Senate under Threat
25 Jan 2011
Views: 14
The winner of the April 9 presidential election may be determined by the outcome of the National Assembly elections holding a week earlier, going by the current calculations and dynamics ahead of the 2011 general election.
Meanwhile, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which lost so many members of the National Assembly to opposition parties after the primaries, is locked in a tug-of-war with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) over the party’s decision to cancel some of its primaries and hold fresh ones.
Going by the realignments in the polity and the fall-outs of the recently held primaries, THISDAY projects that the PDP stands a grave risk of losing a significant number of parliamentary seats – and this may have a bandwagon effect on the pattern of voting in the presidential race which follows immediately.
The growing popularity of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the North-west as well as the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the South-west may provide a difficult test for the PDP, with many of its seats up for grabs in the Senate.
Although the PDP currently controls 83 out of the 109 Senate seats – giving it absolute majority – THISDAY projects that a vast majority of the seats have become unsafe in the light of recent developments, including the possibility of an alliance by CPC, ACN and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP).
It is projected that 37 seats are safe for the ruling party while at least 33 seats will be in play, majority of which are currently held by the PDP. CPC is projected to win 18 seats outright, ACN 9, ANPP 6, with APGA and Labour Party winning three each.
With 33 seats up for grabs, PDP stands the risk of losing its majority, a situation that may make the presidential race difficult for President Goodluck Jonathan.
There has been a notable movement of PDP senators to other parties after losing the nomination of their party at the primary elections held earlier this month.
Significantly, most PDP delegates from the North-west voted for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in the party’s presidential primary in what was generally termed as a “pro-zoning” statement meant to send the message that presidency should remain in the North until at least 2015.
President Jonathan is expected to encounter a serious challenge in this zone in the April polls, in addition to the South-western states of Oyo, Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo and Osun where ACN has been making significant strides.
The North-west and South-west constitute the largest voting blocs in the country.
Jonathan is still expected to enjoy the support of South-south and South-east states, whose governors endorsed him yet again last Sunday at a meeting in Delta State.
But the votes of the North-east are “in play” – meaning they could still go either way – even then Jonathan is still expected to be supported by the North-central.
In the meantime, anxiety is mounting in the PDP over the insistence by INEC that the deadline for the conduct of primary elections for all categories of elective offices has elapsed since January 15.
The commission yesterday, in a letter to the PDP, drew the attention of the party to its (INEC) timetable on the conduct of party primaries.
INEC, therefore warned the PDP that if it goes ahead with the conduct of fresh governorship primaries today (Tuesday) as scheduled, it would be acting outside the law.
In a letter, the INEC Secretary, Abdullahi Kuagama, said the time for all primary elections was over.
Also INEC’s Director of Public Affairs, Mr. Emmanuel Umenger, told newsmen that although the PDP was making moves to conduct governorship primary re-run elections in some states, INEC had explicitly specified that such elections would only take place between November 26, 2010 and January 15, 2011.
He also disclosed that a formal letter had been sent to the PDP leadership on the matter.
“We have written a letter to the party and we have drawn their attention to the fact that the time for primary elections had since lapsed. They are supposed to have finished on January 15.
“It is important to draw their attention to the timetable and we drew the party’s attention to the (INEC) timetable and schedule of activities for the 2011 elections. These were issued by INEC pursuant to the powers vested in it by the provisions of Section 153 of the Electoral Act 2010, as amended.
“If the reports of PDP’s plans for fresh primary elections are true, we are reminding them that the time for the conduct of such elections has since elapsed on January 15, 2011. It has not been extended by the commission,” Umenger said.
The PDP had, last Saturday, ordered re-run gubernatorial primary elections in Kogi and Kano States.
The party also directed similar exercise in some senatorial zones across the federation.
Specifically, the PDP said a re-run senatorial primary election would take place in the following senatorial districts - South-south: Delta-central; South-west: Oyo-central; North-west: Sokoto-east; North-east: Bauchi-north, Taraba-central, Adamawa-south, and Adamawa-north; North-central: Kogi-central, Kogi-east and Kogi-west.
However, the governorship re-run election the party ordered in Kogi State has been cancelled.
PDP’s National Organising Secretary, Prince Uche Secondus, told THISDAY last night that the governorship primary had been called off. He did not give further details on the development.
But it was not clear at press time whether the Kano State governorship primary election will still hold as scheduled.
The party’s primaries have generated series of protests from PDP members from the states.
Apart from the governorship re-run, the party also said its earlier scheduled senatorial re-run primaries would hold as planned. It is not, however, clear if the exercise would still go on, given the INEC’s letter to the party.
But the National Legal Adviser of PDP, Chief Olusola Oke, when reminded of the position of INEC, said: “Inasmuch as we understand that the guidelines for the conduct of the primary election is from INEC, the commission does not interpret the law. It is the court of law that interprets the law.
“We think that INEC has a misconception of the law. What we are doing is a re-run of the primary election, which is as a result of the outcome of the primary election conducted.
“It is still part of the law that when a primary election is conducted and there are irregularities, then a re-run follows to correct the perceived irregularities.
“The re-run is not a fresh primary election. It is still a language given freely to the electoral lexicon by the electoral body.” He also said the party would not engage INEC on the pages of newspapers.
He explained that PDP would go ahead with the re-run primary elections as earlier announced and later engage INEC to sort out issues.
Meanwhile, President Goodluck Jonathan has intervened in the controversy trailing the conduct of senatorial primary elections in Anambra State.
His intervention has resulted in the setting-up of a nine-man panel to sort out all matters arising from the primaries in the state. It is headed by Imo State Governor Ikedi Ohakim.
The Ohakim committee, according to a source, has up till Thursday to submit its report to the president.
The controversy trailing the senatorial primary election in the state has pitched Hon. Chudi Offodile against Senator Annie Okonkwo over who is the actual senatorial candidate for Anambra-central Senatorial zone, while Andy Uba is pitched against Nicholas Ukachukwu over who becomes the senatorial candidate for Anambra-south.
TABLE
Senate Polls: Looking Ahead
Editor's Note: Senators listed here are incumbents. Many of them are no longer candidates.
Party Projection
Abia
Uche Chukwumerije PDP Safe
Enyinnaya Abaribe Harcourt PDP Safe
Nkechi J. Nwaogu PDP Safe
Adamawa
Muhammed Mana PDP In play
Jibril Muhammad Aminu PDP In play
Grace Folashade Bent PDP In play
Akwa Ibom
Aloysius Akpan Etok PDP Safe
Effiong Dickson Bob PDP Safe
Eme Ufot Ekaette PDP Safe
Anambra
Ikechukwu John Obiorah ACN Likely APGA
Annie Okonkwo PDP Likely APGA
Igbeke PDP Likely APGA
Bauchi
Muhammed A. Muhammed ANPP Likely CPC
Suleiman Mohammed Nazif PDP Likely CPC
Adamu Gumba PDP Likely CPC
Bayelsa
Nimi Barigha-Amange PDP Safe
Lokpobiri Heineken PDP Safe
Paulker Emmanuel PDP Safe
Benue
David B. Mark PDP Safe
Joseph Iorshager Akaagerger ACN In play
George Akume ACN In play
Borno
Maina Ma'aji Lawan ANPP Safe
Omar Abubakar Hambagda ANPP Safe
Kaka Mallam Yale ANPP Safe
Cross River
Victor Ndoma Egba PDP Safe
Bassey Ewa Henshaw PDP Safe
Gregory Isiaba Ngaji PDP Safe
Delta
James Ebiowou Manager PDP Safe
Patrick Enebeli Osakwe PDP Safe
Adego Arhiawarie Eferakeya ACN In play
Ebonyi
Agbo Anthony Ooduma PDP Safe
Anyim Chukwu Ude PDP Safe
Ekwe PDP Safe
Edo
Odion M. Ugbesia PDP Likely ACN
Ehigie Edobor Uzamere ACN Likely ACN
Yisa Braimoh PDP Likely ACN
Ekiti
Sola Akinyede PDP Likely ACN
Ayodele Arise PDP Likely ACN
Festus Bode Ola CAN Likely ACN
Enugu
Sen Anyogu Eze PDP In play
Ike Ekweremadu PDP In play
Chimaroke Ogbonnia Nnamani PDP In play
Gombe
Idris Umur PDP In play
Muhammed Waziri PDP In play
Ahmed Alkali PDP In play
Imo
Chris N.D Anyanwu PDP In play
Sylvester Ndubuisi Anyanwu PDP In play
Osita Izunaso PDP In play
Jigawa
Ibrahim Saminu Turaki ACN In play
Mujitaba Mohammed Mallam ACN In play
Abdul'aziz Usman PDP In play
Kaduna
Zagi Caleb PDP Safe
Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi PDP In play
Mohammed Kabiru Jibril PDP In play
Kano
Mohammed Adamu Bello ANPP Likely CPC
Aminu Sule Garo ANPP Likely CPC
Kabiru Ibrahim Gaya ANPP Likely CPC
Katsina
Kanti Bello PDP Likely CPC
Ibrahim Mohammed Ida PDP Likely CPC
Garba Yakubu Lado CPC Safe
Kebbi
Abubakar Atiku Bagudu PDP Likely CPC
Abubakar Tanko Ayuba PDP Likely CPC
Umar A. Tafidan PDP Likely CPC
Kogi
Nicholas Yahaya Ugbane PDP Safe
Smart Adeyemi PDP Safe
Otaru Salihu Ohize PDP Safe
Kwara
Ahmed Mohammed Inuwa PDP Safe
Gbemisola Saraki ACPN Likely PDP
Ajibola S. Simeon PDP Safe
Lagos
Mamora Olurunnimbe Adeleke ACN Safe
Munirudeen Adeleke Muse ACN Safe
Ganiyu Olanrewaju Solomon ACN Safe
Nasarawa
Abubakar Sodangi PDP Safe
Patricia Naomi Akwashiki PDP Safe
Suleman Asonya Adokwe PDP Safe
Niger
Nuhu Aliyu PDP In play
Dahiru Awaisu Kuta PDP In Play
Zaynab Abdulkadir Kure PDP In play
Ogun
Iyabo Obasanjo PDP In play
Ramoni Olalekan Mustapha PDP In play
Felix Kolawole Bajomo PDP In play
Ondo
Gbenga Ogunniya PDP Likely LP
Bode Olajumoke PDP Likely LP
Hosea Oladapo Ehinlawo PDP Likely LP
Osun
Iyiola Omisore PDP Safe
Isiaka A. Adeleke PDP Likely ACN
Simeon Olasunkanmi Oduoye PDP In play
Oyo
Folarin Teslim PDP In play
Babalola Andrew Abidemi PDP In play
Dekunle K. Adedibu PDP In play
Plateau
Gyang Daylop Dantong PDP Safe
John Nanzip Shagaya PDP Safe
Satty Davies Gogwim PDP Safe
Rivers
Lee Ledogo Maeba PDP Safe
George Thompson Sekibo PDP Safe
Wilson Asinobi Ake PDP Safe
Sokoto
Umaru Dahiru PDP Likely CPC
Abubakar Umar Gada PDP Likely CPC
Ahmed M. Maccido PDP Likely CPC
Taraba
Dahiru Bako Gassol PDP Safe
Manzo George Anthony PDP Safe
Joel Danlami Ikenya ACN In play
Yobe
Bukar Abba Ibrahim ANPP Safe
Ahmed Ibrahim Lawan ANPP Safe
Adamu Garba Telba ANPP Safe
Zamfara
Ahmed Rufa'i Sani ANPP Likely CPC
Hassan Mohammed Gusau PDP Likely CPC
Sahabi Alhaji Ya'u PDP Likely CPC
FCT
Adamu M. Sidi-Ali ANPP In play
|
