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The Dam That Could Start A War Between Egypt And Ethiopia - Foreign Affairs - Nairaland

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The Dam That Could Start A War Between Egypt And Ethiopia by gasparpisciotta: 2:12pm On Jul 15, 2020
Tensions rise as £3billion mega-project built by Chinese firms begins filling up - threatening to reduce the Nile to a trickle.

Rising 500ft out of the grasslands of eastern Ethiopia and spanning 6,000ft across the Blue Nile river, is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Africa's largest hydroelectric plant, which is pushing the region close to war.

It is a £3billion bet upon which Ethiopia has banked all its hopes for the future, but which could spell catastrophe for its downstream neighbour, Egypt, which relies on the river for 90 per cent of its fresh water.

Having strong-armed citizens, business and banks into investing in the project - which has also been supported by China - Ethiopia needs results. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has threatened to start filling the lake behind the dam this month, come what may. Egypt says that would be an 'existential threat', and it may resort to force to stop it.

Now, satellite images show the lake behind the dam is starting to fill. Ethiopia protests innocence, saying seasonal rains are swelling the river. Experts in Egypt say they will know by next month whether that is a lie.

Neighbouring countries and especially Sudan, which sits between the two and faces its own problems if the dam is activated, face a nervous wait for results. Presidential delegations from both countries are due to meet soon - but with four years of failed negotiations behind them, the spectre of conflict looms large.

Addis Ababa had threatened to start filling the lake behind the dam in July this year, a move which Egypt called an 'existential threat' and hinted it could go to war over.

Pictured is a satellite image take in July this year, showing the the dam has started filling - though Ethiopia protest innocence, saying seasonal rains are to blame

The row which is now threatening to boil over began simmering in 2011, with Egypt in turmoil amid the Arab Spring protests which forced Hosni Mubarak from power and created a leadership vacuum at the top of society.

With Cairo effectively blinded, Ethiopia's then-Prime Minister Meles Zenawi launched a five-year Growth and Transformation plan, with the dam at its heart.

His country, once among Africa's poorest, was emerging from the end of a decade of unprecedented growth - poverty had fallen, illiteracy rates were down, life expectancy had increased by a decade.

The Blue Nile, which begins in Ethiopia, is the Egyptian Nile's main source of water, providing about 80 per cent of its capacity. The Nile, in turn, provides about 90 per cent of Egypt's fresh water, and is already running short.

Egypt has long been aware of the threat of a dam being built up-river, with President Anwar Sadat threatening to go to war over any such project as far back as the 1970s.

More recent protests from Cairo set off four years of negotiations which have since suckered in UN and US mediators, but which have so-far failed to produce tangible results.

The sticking point is a colonial-era treaty signed in 1929, before Ethiopia existed, which guarantees Egypt almost exclusive rights over the waters of the Nile.

Ethiopia, meanwhile, refuses to recognise the 1929 treaty and says Cairo's expectations are 'unrealistic'.

The latest round of talks, which concluded this week, also ended without agreement.

'Unchanged and additional and excessive demands of Egypt and Sudan prohibited the conclusion of this round of negotiation by an agreement,' said Ethiopia's Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy.

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8525233/The-dam-start-war-Egypt-Ethiopia.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead

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Re: The Dam That Could Start A War Between Egypt And Ethiopia by Nobody: 2:13pm On Jul 15, 2020
Been seeing a lot of headlines about this Nile issue. I really need to dig in.
Re: The Dam That Could Start A War Between Egypt And Ethiopia by Olominira(m): 2:24pm On Jul 15, 2020
Ethiopia needs electricity just like many other countries in Africa. There are many sources of electricity but no other source for irrigation in Egypt, this is why Ethiopia should have considered and negotiate with Egypt.
Re: The Dam That Could Start A War Between Egypt And Ethiopia by Vyzz: 3:31pm On Jul 15, 2020
Two oldest African countries
Re: The Dam That Could Start A War Between Egypt And Ethiopia by Unnerve: 4:01pm On Jul 15, 2020
Building a dam upriver is not a wise thing to do generally, not just about restricting the flow of water to Egypt but it will also have an effect on the ecosystem around the areas downstream.

It's 2020, Ethiopia should be looking for alternative energy sources, not putting so much dependence on hydroelectricity by walling up a river which serves at least six other countries.

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Re: The Dam That Could Start A War Between Egypt And Ethiopia by Nobody: 6:01pm On Jul 15, 2020
Finally the Millennium/Renaissance dam snafu makes it to NL. sad

The last time they fought, Ethiopia won hands down.

But this time, should they go at it, it's gonna be a totally different ball-game. I mean, Egypt has Africa's largest air defense assets. 9th strongest military force in the world too with vast combat experience fighting in conflicts in the Middle East.

I'm always up for some thrills by the way.

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