With all the noise being made about power generation, this is a realistic appraisal, Is there hope for Nigeria's Development?

NIGERIA’S electricity generation may rise to 7,046 megawatts (mw) by 2020, going by a projection from UK-based research organisation-Business Monitory International (BMI).  The forecast represents 101.3 per cent increase over the present capacity of 3,500mw.

However, the projection falls short of Federal Government’s target of 40,000mw, which would ensure uninterrupted power supply nationwide, under a seamless distribution regime.

The country’s power generation increased to about 3,800mw recently from the regular 3,500mw, only to witness a decline to 3,313mw.

President Goodluck Jonathan had unfolded the power sector reforms in August 2010, where the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) was scripted to be unbundled into six generation and 11distribution companies.

BMI, in its 2011 first quarter report titled: “Nigeria Power Report”, released on Wednesday, stated that this figure is near the top of the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region range. “This equates to 40.2 per cent in 2015-2020, down from 43.6 per cent in 2010-2015”.

According to the report, Nigeria would account for 2.13 per cent of MEA regional power generation by 2015, with the country struggling to narrow the supply/demand gap.

The MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0 per cent over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). “We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,518TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 24.2 per cent between 2010 and the end of the period”.

MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated at 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3 per cent of the total electricity supplied in the region. “Our forecast for 2015 is 1,378TWh, implying 20.8 per cent growth in 2010-2015 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 90.8 per cent. Nigeria’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 15.5TWh, or 1.36 per cent of the regional total.

By 2015, the country is expected to account for 1.76 per cent of regional thermal generation”, it added.

It disclosed that direct burning of wood and waste materials would have been the dominant energy source for Nigeria in 2010, accounting for an estimated 77.0 per cent of Primary Energy Demand (PED), followed by gas at 12.3 per cent and oil with a 9.5 per cent share of PED.

Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8 per cent growth over the period since 2010. Nigeria’s estimated 2010 market share of 11.35 per cent is set to rise to 12.00 per cent by 2015.

Nigeria now shares sixth place with Saudi Arabia in the Business Monitory International updated Power Business Environment Ratings.

According to the report, Nigeria’s position should prove secure over the medium term, with Iran, six points below, posing little threat. “Import dependency is average for the region, while the proportion of renewable is relatively high. However, the power sector is not particularly competitive, with limited progress towards privatization”, it said.

It noted that PED growth in 2015-2020 is set to remain around the 27.6 per cent level forecast for 2010-2015, representing 62.9 per cent for the entire forecast period. Hydropower use is forecast to increase by 29 per cent between 2010 and 2020, while thermal power generation is expected to rise 134 per cent during the period, fuelled largely by natural gas. Details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.

“We forecast that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will average 7.48 per cent a year between 2010 and 2015, with 2011 growth assumed to be 6.70 per cent. The population is expected to expand from 158.3 million to 178.7 million over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 151 per cent and 23 per cent respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 20.2TWh in 2010 to 27.9TWh by 2015, providing an improvement in market coverage on the basis of 7.0 per cent average yearly growth (2010-2015) in electricity generation. Transmission losses and power industry usage of around 2.8TWh mean that the market is likely to remain tight for several years.

//www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option

yepa - my head don scatter


by that time population go don reach 160 Million.

as team Jonathan Odechukuw on NL will say look on the bright side " At least electricity generation has increased"

It disclosed that direct burning of wood and waste materials would have been the dominant energy source for Nigeria in 2010,

yepa part 2

didnot know we were this backward.

blacksta:

[b]yepa - my head don scatter[/b]by that time population go don reach 160 Million.
as team Jonathan Odechukuw on NL will say look on the bright side " At least electricity generation has increased"

hahahaha

On a more serious note this report, if true, calls for national mourning! Is it gas that we don't have to power the turbines? Is it money that we don't have to re-design/engineer the power sector?

The will and desire is key, and most importantly transparency