Tuesday 11/8/2020 - The Major Highlights That Will Move The Fx Market
1. Today's market headline themes will be mostly about stimulus talks in the US, the resilience of Oil prices, and German Zew sentiment that came out much better than expected.
2. We expect oil-linked currencies like the CAD to perform well today.
3. EUR-USD currently trades close to resistance at 1.1800 however note there are decent option strikes at 1.1750 later today.
4. We are not calling off the reflation trade but we see a possible correction in the EUR-USD.
5. Technically we look at the floor of 1.1690 been hit before further upward movements
6. We also recommend a sell USD-JPY trade call. it's our view that JPY strength will grow because of inflationary concerns.

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THURSDAY 10/9/2020- The Major Highlights That Will Move The Fx Market

Wednesday 12/8/2020 - Headlines in the forex markets will be dominated by US treasuries sell-off today.
1. The most pressing challenge for the reflation trade is the US 10 year yields.
2. Sustainability of factor reversals on UST yields in the absence of a rise in US yields is a key concern.
3. The factor yield becomes more likely to fizzle out.
4. At Alexis Philips Global Markets we expect UST to break over 0.72% and hold the line.
5. This afternoon in the New York trading session there would be UST quarterly refunding where $38 billion of 10 year yields and $26 billion of 30-year yields will be issued.
6. We see speculative supply and demand shifts in DM futures markets.
7. A new investor appetite for P/B stocks and cash equity markets.
8. July CPI is in view and we expect dollar strengths during the New York trading session.
9. Dxy can press towards 94 or even 94.50
10. On the Options front, there are strikes at GBP for 700million Pounds at 1.3000 tomorrow.
11. JPY for $2.6 billion maturing in the coming day
12. EUR 1.1700 in the coming days.

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THURSDAY 13/8/2020- The Major Highlights That Will Move The Fx Market

1. We are expecting US unemployment claims report this afternoon
2. We expect a reduction claims because of the reduction in the benefits.
3. The deadlock in stimulus negotiation is also an issue of concern.
4. The US - Chinese relations is generating additional heat and can't be ignored
5. Today's move of the EUR USD above 1.1800 is notable and the rally seen yesterday is irrational market reaction.
6. It shows us price action is still two way
With the downside favored for EUR USD
7. We think the EUR USD rally is a fools rally
8. We expect futher correction

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FRIDAY 14/8/2020- The Major Highlights That Will Move The Fx Market

1. US China tensions and stimulus negotiation brohaha are off the headlines today as the US Senate is in recess.
2. It's rising treasuries and retail sales that dominate trading sentiments today.
3. We see risky assets dominating the play today.
4. EUR strikes maturing today are 2.08 billion EUR at 1.1900 and 1.14 billion at 1.1850.
5. We favour a bullish Euro from here

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THURSDAY 10/9/2020- The Major Highlights That Will Move The Fx Market

1. The main theme for financial markets today will be the ECB rate decision by 12:45 BST and the ECB press conference by 13.30 BST.
2. We expect a mute market reaction from the rate decision and a strong market reaction from the press conference.
3. Prior to yesterday, ECB officials were serving a wrong cause of negative growth until their forecasts showed more confidence in the economic outlook yesterday afternoon.
4. EUR volumes are already pricing some jawboning risks which point to the fact market volatility will be high today.
5. However, the Euro could go either way today.
6. If there is no panic expressed in PEPP volumes, this would suggest that the bar for further policy easing is high and may trigger a hawkish market reaction.
7. But the market believes action speaks louder than words this time and if the ECB doesn’t add to asset purchases it would be a sell EUR story.
8. We expect the ECB to indicate the need for persistent monetary accommodation.

Read more Alexis Philips FX NEWS

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Following this thread, for daily updates.

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Wednesday 12/8/2020 - Headlines in the forex markets will be dominated by US treasuries sell-off today.
1. The most pressing challenge for the reflation trade is the US 10 year yields.
2. Sustainability of factor reversals on UST yields in the absence of a rise in US yields is a key concern.
3. The factor yield becomes more likely to fizzle out.
4. At Alexis Philips Global Markets we expect UST to break over 0.72% and hold the line.
5. This afternoon in the New York trading session there would be UST quarterly refunding where $38 billion of 10 year yields and $26 billion of 30-year yields will be issued.
6. We see speculative supply and demand shifts in DM futures markets.
7. A new investor appetite for P/B stocks and cash equity markets.
8. July CPI is in view and we expect dollar strengths during the New York trading session.
9. Dxy can press towards 94 or even 94.50
10. On the Options front, there are strikes at GBP for 700million Pounds at 1.3000 tomorrow.
11. JPY for $2.6 billion maturing in the coming day
12. EUR 1.1700 in the coming days.

TRADE RESPONSIBLY

$USD n $EURGBP demand pushing $GBPUSD down to test strong support/bids at 1.3000 having chewed thru the 1.3020 tranche.Taking some more pips down here but staying core short from recent re-sells. More bids at 1.2980-85 n $EURGBP has sellers 0.9050-60

THURSDAY - The Major Highlights That Will Move The Fx Market

1. We are expecting US unemployment claims report this afternoon
2. We expect a reduction claims because of the reduction in the benefits.
3. The deadlock in stimulus negotiation is also an issue of concern.
4. The US - Chinese relations is generating additional heat and can't be ignored
5. Today's move of the EUR USD above 1.1800 is notable and the rally seen yesterday is irrational market reaction.
6. It shows us price action is still two way
With the downside favored for EUR USD
7. We think the EUR USD rally is a fools rally
8. We expect futher correction

TRADE RESPONSIBLY

FRIDAY 14/8/2020- The Major Highlights That Will Move The Fx Market

1. US China tensions and stimulus negotiation brohaha are off the headlines today as the US Senate is in recess.
2. It's rising treasuries and retail sales that dominate trading sentiments today.
3. We see risky assets dominating the play today.
4. EUR strikes maturing today are 2.08 billion EUR at 1.1900 and 1.14 billion at 1.1850.
5. We favour a bullish Euro from here

TRADE RESPONSIBLY

THURSDAY 10/9/2020- The Major Highlights That Will Move The Fx Market

1. The main theme for financial markets today will be the ECB rate decision by 12:45 BST and the ECB press conference by 13.30 BST.
2. We expect a mute market reaction from the rate decision and a strong market reaction from the press conference.
3. Prior to yesterday, ECB officials were serving a wrong cause of negative growth until their forecasts showed more confidence in the economic outlook yesterday afternoon.
4. EUR volumes are already pricing some jawboning risks which point to the fact market volatility will be high today.
5. However, the Euro could go either way today.
6. If there is no panic expressed in PEPP volumes, this would suggest that the bar for further policy easing is high and may trigger a hawkish market reaction.
7. But the market believes action speaks louder than words this time and if the ECB doesn’t add to asset purchases it would be a sell EUR story.
8. We expect the ECB to indicate the need for persistent monetary accommodation.

Read more Alexis Philips FX NEWS