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Genbuhari3:

while most GEJ supporters are giving him arm chair support, some of us in the  Buhari Camp have built excel models looking at the current situation (Nigerian economy, politics, infrastructure after 12 years of pdp), sentiments (pro-zoning in the North) to project what will happen in 2011 elections using the 2003 elections as bench mark, at least more credible than 2007 elections which 3 out of 7 supreme court judges ruled Buhari won!

^^Nice spreadsheet! But your model will be more realistic and accurate:
1) if you adjust the inputs & assumptions to account for state by state variations; e.g the factors driving voters in Kogi state will be vastly different from those of voters in Plateau but they are both in the NC. And at the end of the day, the election will be won or lost on a state by state basis.
2) if you weight the votes for each state by expected voter turnout. Check Table 2 here (http://www.waado.org/nigerdelta/politics/2003elections/President-election/NigerDelta-OjameruayeII.html).

By adding these parameters; your model will be better able to predict the impact of say a high voter turnout in Kano versus an average voter turnout in Lagos on each candidates chances.

I hope I have your permission to make this adjustments.

Becomrich, you are the only person who can cure yourself of this ailment of yours.

^oh yes by shredding his map with 2 clobs of garlic, aligator pepper together with lemon. Finally, blend for 12secs. Simmer for another 15secs, allow to chill.
A daily dosage of 2 table spoons morning & at night will do the magic.

I really do care Becomrichn!

Ok, let me reveal a secret that the Buhari/Bakare Ticket can do little about!!

Imagine this scenario: PDP agents go around the poverty ravaged villages of the North West offering 3000 Naira each for voters registration cards!! They buy up 4 million cards at just about 12 billion naira only!! Take them to the bush and burn them all up!! Whatcha all BB fans gonna do about that??

Ok just joking!! The moral here is that money should not be underestimated for its ability to influence rural votes!!

aletheia:



The basis for your expectation of a runoff is flawed because it is based on the erroneous belief that for a candidate to win he must have 51% of the total votes. All he needs do is have more votes than the next candidate --- even if it is just 100,000 votes --- provided he has the required spread of at least a quarter in two-thirds of the states. You can easily confirm this by referring to the provisions of the constitution and historical antecedents: in 1979, NPN won with 33.7% of the total votes and in 83 with 47.5% of the total votes.
Secondly, you assume that in the unlikely event of a runoff, ACN will enter into alliance with CPC. Nothing stops them from going into an alliance with PDP instead.

By failing to reach out to the NC, SS and SE, Buhari has lost the elections.

Ok! So the 51% is not required in Nigerian elections right Nice!! That means the election is GEJs to loose!!! I thought that applies! Sorry!

Was he (buhari) welcomed to ph or spies welcomed him?

See pictures of patrotic Niger Deltans welcoming Buhari to PH.

Another one,

Another one,

And another one,

aletheia:

^^Nice spreadsheet! But your model will be more realistic and accurate:
1) if you adjust the inputs & assumptions to account for state by state variations; e.g the factors driving voters in Kogi state will be vastly different from those of voters in Plateau but they are both in the NC. And at the end of the day, the election will be won or lost on a state by state basis.
2) if you weight the votes for each state by expected voter turnout. Check Table 2 here (http://www.waado.org/nigerdelta/politics/2003elections/President-election/NigerDelta-OjameruayeII.html).

By adding these parameters; your model will be better able to predict the impact of say a high voter turnout in Kano versus an average voter turnout in Lagos on each candidates chances.

I hope I have your permission to make this adjustments.

Please feel free to make adjustments. Attached is the file that I have with the new INEC registration # of 73 million. Cheers!!!

Funnily this crowd seems to be more that those present when Jonathan went to Minna! Thanks for posting the pixes jare.

He has some nerve coming to Rivers State. That is GEJ territory. People are welcoming there, but they wont vote for him, when they have a native son running for president.

We will readily welcome him but we can't vote him and that is a democratic spirit not throwing stone or resort to rubbish. Didn't atiku campaign in bayelsa? Didn't people attend? What happened at last?

Nsiman:

We will readily welcome him but we can't vote him and that is a democratic spirit not throwing stone or resort to rubbish. Didn't atiku campaign in bayelsa? Didn't people attend? What happened at last?

Agreed. We are civil in the East, when it comes to politics. They can campaign, and people will come to their rallies, but that does not mean they shall vote for them.

i wouldnt expect him to pull crowd there

but SW middle belt NE NC NW edo delta yeah.

@ Eze Uche & Nsiman,
I wonder if you guys think or reason with your brain under your feet. Didn't GEJ's paid-for crowd attend his rally in Minna, Niger state. You simply seize every opportunity to direct every single thread towards tribalism and religious bigotry.

sbeezy8:

i wouldnt expect him to pull crowd there

but SW middle belt NE NC NW edo delta yeah.

Apparently he pulled more crowd than GEJ did in Minna.

I keep challenging the Goodluck people to show concrete reason why anyone should even listen to them let alone support them. They jnow they have nothing on ground, so thier argument soon degenerates into insult and tribal sentiments. these people are only backing him because of sentiments, and not because he has anything to offer, besides criminals and corrupt politicians

9ijaMan:

@ Eze Uche & Nsiman,
I wonder if you guys think or reason with your brain under your feet. Didn't GEJ's paid-for crowd attend his rally in Minna, Niger state. You simply seize every opportunity to direct every single thread towards tribalism and religious bigotry.

Saying that Port Harcourt is GEJ territory is equal to tribalism? Get out of here with that nonsense We all know each candidate's stronghold.

Buhari has no chance in the East to win. Buhari has no chance in winning the South-South. So shut up you dunce.

danjohn:


Please feel free to make adjustments. Attached is the file that I have with the new INEC registration # of 73 million. Cheers!!!

Thanks! Changed your log in name?

Quote from: Genbuhari3

Papabrowne

while most GEJ supporters are giving him arm chair support, some of us in the Buhari Camp have built excel models looking at the current situation (Nigerian economy, politics, infrastructure after 12 years of pdp), sentiments (pro-zoning in the North) to project what will happen in 2011 elections using the 2003 elections as bench mark, at least more credible than 2007 elections which 3 out of 7 supreme court judges ruled Buhari won!


see the attachment
the result shows there will be no clear winner!

I took a look at your excel model and was impressed with the presentation. However, you are wrong about your assumptions for SE.

There is no way Buhari gets more than 5% in the SE. Ribadu will not get more than 2% in SE too (supported mainly by few educated idealists in Igboland). I say that GEJ will get at least 85% in SE. Just watch.

I also looked closely to what informed your assumptions and found it laughable. You were using the 2003 elections which was massively rigged in favor of Obasanjo.

If you believe that Obasanjo is more popular than Ojukwu in Igboland, then you really need to stop lying to yourself.

Onlytruth:

I also looked closely to what informed your assumptions and found it laughable. You were using the 2003 elections which was massively rigged in favor of Obasanjo.

If you believe that Obasanjo is more popular than Ojukwu in Igboland, then you really need to stop lying to yourself.

Onlytruth, I used 2003 elections to measure Buhari's popularity in the North since he won 11 states.  Although I must admit that I am assuming that the ANPP governors in those states did not rig.  For the Southwest, South South, and Southeast, I used my educated guess.  This exercise is for Buhari's supporters to see how well our candidate must perform if he is to force a runoff.  It is not a projection of the election result if the election is held today.  I guess I just wanted political junkies like me to be able to conduct scenario analysis on their computer since our media outlets do not conduct scientific polling. 

aletheia:

Thanks! Changed your log in name?

I made the spreadsheet and uploaded it a few days: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-614640.0.html.  Im not GenBuhari3 although we support the same goal of electing Buhari 

The PH rally comes to an end after the presentation of CPC gubernatorial candidates to the crowd. More pictures coming soon,

Gen Buhari concludes his address, "Why go to school when you can get an AK47 and get N50,000 a week. The BB government will look into the problems of the South-South and solve it"

Hear Gen. Buhari, "It's possible, it's doable, and it's going to be done this year"

Gen. Buhari makes his way to the podium to address the crowd. "We used to have Nigerian Shipping lines, and Nigerian Airways - where are they now?

Pastor Bakare continues, "The BB government will be responsible and responsive. PDP does not understand power to the people. They are only concerned about power to self"

Pastor Bakare addresses the crowd, "No nation is built on good luck. Whatsoever brings a pastor into politics must be serious. The enemy of South-South is South-South: Goodluck is clueless"

Pastor Bakare makes his way to the podium amidst cheering and clapping,

The CPC Chairman, Prince Tony Momoh, mounts the podium to address the crowd, " No hand over your vote abi you wan bi slave" "Did you know Buhari visited the Niger-Delta every month for 3 years as Minister of Petroleum? To fix Nigeria, vote for Buhari"

Mrs Joy Nunieh-Okunnu, member CPC Board of Trustees, addressing the crowd at the rally

Mrs Joy Nunieh-Okunnu continues her address in pidgin, "CPC no dey for aso-ebi, we no dey for big big head-tie. Our people wan vote for the person wey we know sey e respect women" (in reference to BB

More greetings and general remarks, Mrs Joy Nunieh-Okunnu, member CPC Board of Trustees, is addressing the crowd in pidgin and they are very excited about that.

Opening address by Madam Mosheshe, CPC South-South Campaign Coordinator and by Mr Alex-Hart, CPC Vice Chairman South-South

Opening prayer just concluded. The MC just described Buhari's running mate, Bakare, as a man who stands for justice and equity. "CPC stands for transparency, integrity and good governance" says the MC



Pastor Bakare addresses the crowd, "No nation is built on good luck. Whatsoever brings a pastor into politics must be serious. The enemy of South-South is South-South: Goodluck is clueless"

Funny pix.

I keep seeing PH being referred to as 2nd largest city in Nigeria. I do go to PH and if what you define largeness by population, which is what is relevant here, then I can say without hesitation that after Lagos, at least Kano and Ibadan are more populated than PH, even Kaduna will give it a run for its money, leaving it to struggle for 4th or 5th spot. In fact given what I do see in PH, even Ilorin will give it a run for its money.

Jarus:

I keep seeing PH being referred to as 2nd largest city in Nigeria. I do go to PH and if what you define largeness by population, which is what is relevant here, then I can say without hesitation that after Lagos, at least Kano and Ibadan are more populated than PH, even Kaduna will give it a run for its money, leaving it to struggle for 4th or 5th spot. In fact given what I do see in PH, even Ilorin will give it a run for its money.

Jarus you need not go too far. I've lived in most of the cities you cited.
Lagos, Kaduna and Kano are definitely larger than PH. Ilorin is better organized and probably larger as well. Ibadan is not PH's mate, whatever your choice of criteria.
Ogbomoso also in Oyo state is bigger than PH.

Abeg let them continue to wallow in their ignorance.

I still dont understand what this Pastor man is doing with this Sharia man.

Time2Think:

I still dont understand what this Pastor man is doing with this Sharia man.

Then u are still a caveman living in d stoneage

Jarus:

I keep seeing PH being referred to as 2nd largest city in Nigeria. I do go to PH and if what you define largeness by population, which is what is relevant here, then I can say without hesitation that after Lagos, at least Kano and Ibadan are more populated than PH, even Kaduna will give it a run for its money, leaving it to struggle for 4th or 5th spot. In fact given what I do see in PH, even Ilorin will give it a run for its money.

9ijaMan:

Jarus you need not go too far. I've lived in most of the cities you cited.
Lagos, Kaduna and Kano are definitely larger than PH. Ilorin is better organized and probably larger as well. Ibadan is not PH's mate, whatever your choice of criteria.
Ogbomoso also in Oyo state is bigger than PH.

Abeg let them continue to wallow in their ignorance.

Becomericha, where are your satellite maps?

Solomon227:

Then u are still a caveman living in d stoneage

Is that the best answer from someone living in London. Tell me where you live in London let me come and slap sense into you.