Buhari / Bakare ticket can only win in a run off election

For us to have a presidential election winner in Nigeria, two basic conditions are to be met:


Condition 1 : A simple majority in the total votes cast i.e not necessarily up to 50 % of the total votes cast


Condition 2: Must have at least 25% of the total votes cast in 24 of the 36 states and FCT.


Can Buhari get up to 25% of the total votes cast in any of the South south Or South East states with the current political arrangement ? NO !!!!!!!

If your answer to the above question was yes, you are either an incurable optimist not in touch with the realities on ground OR your analtical mind has been beclouded with emotions of your hatred for PDP.

The south south and the south east states comprises of 11 states.(Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta, Edo, Cross river, Akwa ibom, Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo)

Buhari is left with just 25 states, i am also certain , he will also not get 25 % of the total votes cast in at least 1 south west state and in at least 1 North central state).

Leaving him with just 23 states at most.

The only option is for him to meet condition 1 as stated above , and then force a run off election. A run off election will involve only the top 2 performers in the first election

In the event of a run off election, he will be needing an alliance with ACN more importantly and may be ANPP.

IF this should happen, then, Jonathan had better start packing his belongings in ASO rock, as only massive rigging will do the magic for the PDP machinery. then we can sing PDP haram.

Honest analysis!!
And it actually exposes the stupidity of the opposition!! Why was it so hard for the CPC and ACN to merge?? The personal egos of Buhari and Tinubu always rule over the interest of the nation!!
Truth is PDP has this election in their kitty without resorting to rigging!! They have the structures, money and spread in addition to an extremely popular incumbent in Goodluck Jonathan!!

beautiful analysis

this election will go to a run off. jonathan is as loathed in the north as buhari is disliked in the south.

i hope that cleared things up for you.

Up pdp

Plurality might be the word you are looking for, not majority

Nice write up OP.

Regarding your analysis. . .

1) Edo I don't think will behave as the rest of the SS does. So he has 26 states to hunt for this 25% in. Can he get at least 25% in 24 of the remaining 26 states? Imo, shouldn't be impossible.
2) More importantly, there is the strong chance that Buhari will pull more votes than GEJ will. Buhari's home base (NW+NE) has 25.69 million votes, GEJ's (SS+SE) has 16.274 million votes. Assuming similar voting margin in the two regions, this is on the order of 9.42 million extra votes Buhari will have. If Buhari can battle GEJ to a standstill in the SW and NC, then he'll get FAR more total votes. . . simple as that. Only way for him not to exceed GEJs vote total is if he gets slapped silly in the NC and SW. This seems unlikely.

eku_bear:

Regarding your analysis. . .

1) Edo I don't think will behave as the rest of the SS does. So he has 26 states to hunt for this 25% in. Can he get at least 25% in 24 of the remaining 26 states? Imo, shouldn't be impossible.
2) More importantly, there is the strong chance that Buhari will pull more votes than GEJ will. Buhari's home base (NW+NE) has 25.69 million votes, GEJ's (SS+SE) has 16.274 million votes. Assuming similar voting margin in the two regions, this is on the order of 9.42 million extra votes Buhari will have. If Buhari can battle GEJ to a standstill in the SW and NC, then he'll get FAR more total votes. . . simple as that. Only way for him not to exceed GEJs vote total is if he gets slapped silly in the NC and SW. This seems unlikely.

Edo state votes will be sharply divided between the ACN presidential candidate and Jonathan due to the factthat it is an ACN state, although Buhari's best performance in the south south will come from the state, he will not get up to 25 % of the total votes cast.

Buhari will also fail to get the minimum 25% in one other south west state, most likely Ogun state and even in plateau state.

eku_bear:

Plurality might be the word you are looking for, not majority

I mean majority, the simple majority indicates no need to have up to 51% of the votes, since the race is among over two candidates, i.e highest number of votes cast.

emiye:

I mean majority,   the simple majority indicates no need to have up to 51% of the votes, since the race is among over two candidates, i.e highest number of votes cast.

Interesting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simple_majority

I didn't know that "simple majority" means "plurality" elsewhere (including British English.)

emiye:

Edo state votes will be sharply divided between the ACN presidential candidate  and Jonathan  due to the factthat it is an ACN state, although Buhari's best performance in the south south will come from the state, he will not get up to 25 % of the total votes cast.

Buhari will also fail to get the minimum 25% in one other south west state, most likely Ogun state     and even in plateau state.

We shall see. I don't think it'll be that hard for him to get 25% in Edo and all of the SW.

You didn't address this issue of his larger voting base.

@eku bear

As regards popularity across the regions


i am sending a voting pattern projection  across the 6 regions  for the presidential candidates.


                                                  GEJ                                      BUHARI                                    RIBADU


NW                                  5.94 Million  (30%)                          11.28Million    (57%)                     2.57Million  (13%)



NE                                   3.33 Million   (31%)                           5.48 Million  (51%)                       1.94 Million (18%)


NC                                4.27 Million    (40%)                         3.97 Million   (37%)                        2.45 Million (23%) (                           
                                           

S.W                                  4.43 Million   (31%)                          4.14 Million  (29%)                        5.71 Million (40%)


S.S                                   7.56 Million    (80%)                         0.87 Million    (9%)                      1.04 Million (11%)


S.E                                    5.22 Million  (69%)                          0.91 Million    (12%)                         1.44 Million  (19%)


TOTAL VOTES                        30.76 Million ( 42%)            26.65 Million ( 36.2%)        15.15 Million ( 21%)

keep deceiving yourselves

^^^ are you saying up to 30 million people will actually come out to vote for PDP??
Lord save us, we actually have a long way to go.

@emiye: I think you must admit that those #s are fairly optimistic for GEJ. I don't think most prognosticators would guess he'd do that well in the NW and NE, and that Buhari would barely get 50% of the NE.

But even despite these rosy predictions of yours. . . Buhari is only behind by 4.11 million votes. It is quite easy to imagine a situation in which Buhari wins.

You guys are deceiving yourself. How on earth will somebody think Buhari will not get 25% of Plateau state? It is on record that Buhari won the presidential election in Ogun state in 2007. Those that voted for him the are still there and will still vote him even Bakare is not his running.

Tell me a state in South West were Buhari will not get 25% percent. You guys should even be thinking of how Buhari will not lead in South West.

I can assure whoever cares to listen, Buhari will likely lead in all Northern states - 19 states and he will win in some South Western states. Nothing can change that except rigging. I am from the South West and I can tell whoever cares to listen that Buhari is the candidate to beat here - Ribadu is only popular in Lagos because of ACN.

Little things matter, have u forgotten patience/inna ciroma/ mrs sambo serious mobilization of women in the north and the fact that buhari is nt women friendly, the whole of SS/SE already belong 2 GEJ even oshiomhole & ACN edo members will vote for GEJ, mimiko is working 4 GEJ in ondo, lagos is highly populated wit d igbos who have declared 4 GEJ, in case u dnt know a lot of igbos live in the north, there are even some areas where only igbos live in kano, even if most pple dnt lyk OBJ, baba still wields a lot of influence in ogun, ekiti pple are crazy about education and GEJ gave dem a federal university, they even named the longest street in ikole-ekiti after GEJ. Buhari may win NW/NE but GEJ must get smtin 4rm there, the sambo factor has to b worth something.

Sambo knows he is not worth toilet paper in the north.

I don't even know how someone will think GEJ will get more than 40% of the SE votes with Akwa Nbom PDP decamping to ACN. You be mumu, you think Oshiomole will support GEJ's ambition? Based on what? Yes GEJ will get some votes in Edo but will be less than 30%.

You will be surprised when votes start rolling in - PDP will not get 40% of SE votes except if they rig.

Wadeoye:

You guys are deceiving yourself. How on earth will somebody think Buhari will not get 25% of Plateau state? It is on record that Buhari won the presidential election in Ogun state in 2007. Those that voted for him the are still there and will still vote him even Bakare is not his running.

Tell me a state in South West were Buhari will not get 25% percent. You guys should even be thinking of how Buhari will not lead in South West.

I can assure whoever cares to listen, Buhari will likely lead in all Northern states - 19 states and he will win in some South Western states. Nothing can change that except rigging. I am from the South West and I can tell whoever cares to listen that Buhari is the candidate to beat here - Ribadu is only popular in Lagos because of ACN.

Ignorance sha!! Wadeoye, I'm pretty sure you've never traveled out of your state, so your perception naturally would be very narrow!! What do you know about Plateau? Or Benue or Taraba?? Or Kogi?? These are northern states mind you with majority Christian populations!! The major thing on the mind of many in these region is to finally get rid of Hausa Fulani dominance, something the CPC and Buhari represent! Buhari would have a problem getting 25% in the southwest for 2 reasons! The CPC has no structures so they would hardly get votes from the rural areas. Secondly they have to contend with 2 very popular parties in the region which is PDP and ACN!!

Wadeoye:

Sambo knows he is not worth toilet paper in the north.

I don't even know how someone will think GEJ will get more than 40% of the SE votes with Akwa Nbom PDP decamping to ACN. You be mumu, you think Oshiomole will support GEJ's ambition? Based on what? Yes GEJ will get some votes in Edo but will be less than 30%.

You will be surprised when votes start rolling in - PDP will not get 40% of SE votes except if they rig.

Your ignorance would disappoint you hard and bad on election day!!! The bolded parts left me wondering why I bothered responding to your other post!!! Stark ignorance!!

Wadeoye:

You guys are deceiving yourself. How on earth will somebody think Buhari will not get 25% of Plateau state? It is on record that Buhari won the presidential election in Ogun state in 2007. Those that voted for him the are still there and will still vote him even Bakare is not his running.

Tell me a state in South West were Buhari will not get 25% percent. You guys should even be thinking of how Buhari will not lead in South West.

I can assure whoever cares to listen, Buhari will likely lead in all Northern states - 19 states and he will win in some South Western states. Nothing can change that except rigging. I am from the South West and I can tell whoever cares to listen that Buhari is the candidate to beat here - Ribadu is only popular in Lagos because of ACN.

As for Ogun state, most of the votes going to Buhari in 2007 came on the bandwagon effect of the gubernational candidate, who was very popular then "Amosun". Amosun was then an ANPP candidate, and he gave daniel a run for his money then, and was arguably believed to have been rigged out. The same Amosun is now an ACN gubernatorial candidate. The same bandwagon effect will still work in so many states in Nigeria, though the effect might be less in some highly developed states like lagos, kano e.t.c

The undoing of Buhari in the south west will be on the heels that he is more popular with the enlightened ones like you and i, who will vote for him, many bricklayers, plumber , village farmers and rural dwellers will not vote him. the CPC political structure is virtually non existent in the south west. If you doubt me, lets compare notes after April 9. This issue of political structure is what PDP will use to get average of 30% of the votes in the south west, notwithstanding the "rascal" saga. Many enlightened ones are swithching camp from Ribadu to Buhari, But how many are they ? Expect so many "passive" voters most expecially women, who can vote for Jonathan just because his parents named him goodluck. The value of there vote is the same as yours.

Wadeoye:

Sambo knows he is not worth toilet paper in the north.

I don't even know how someone will think GEJ will get more than 40% of the SE votes with Akwa Nbom PDP decamping to ACN. You be mumu, you think Oshiomole will support GEJ's ambition? Based on what? Yes GEJ will get some votes in Edo but will be less than 30%.

You will be surprised when votes start rolling in - PDP will not get 40% of SE votes except if they rig.

I am disappointed with your analysis.

There was no were i said oshiomole will support GEJ's ambition, he is an ACN governor and will almost certainly support his presidential candidate.   PDP's weakest link will be in Edo state.

Akwa ibom is not in the S.E  , it is a south south state.    Dont be deceived about televised decampees, it is normal, a few aggrieved ones might leave the party, but will be negligible in the big picture.   In fact it was televised in Anambra state, Some PDP members decamped to ACN,  and vice versa   !!

[size=14pt]"I will continue to show openly and inside me the total commitment to the Sharia movement that is sweeping all over Nigeria," - Buhari

God willing, we will not stop the agitation for the total implementation of the Sharia in the country," - Buhari[/size]

the

Wahala, Buhari is 69.

@Wadeoye tell them oooo.
Whichever angle I don't see people voting for PDP. Only their members and households will vote for them. Don't think illiterates do not know what is going on or out of touch with the reality. They know what Goodluck stands for, they know what Buhari stands for, they hear and know what Fashola is doing in Lagos. They know Nigeria's top problems as not the inaccurate Megawatts of electricty but corruption, favouritism and nepotism and they know that it is only PDP that exhibits them in their manifesto.
The farmers know the reason why they are not getting fertilizers at the promised subsidized rate, they know the reason why the schools their kids attend are in moribund, they know and hear about Convenant, Bowen, Igbinedion, Bells and ABTI university. They know who owns them, they know the minister of education doesn't have children in the kind of school his children attend. I know this because I live with people I percieve to be illiterates.
Every unemployed graduate knows the reason why he can never and will never get a good job except he knows one manager, a senator or the MD. We know this will persist if Jonathan is still in the ring of PDP, people know all these.
All analysis remain a forecast which reality will deviate from. Even if Mrs Sambo, Mrs Ciroma, Mrs Jonathan distribute fura de nunu nothing will ever make an Hausa woman not heed to his husband's directives. You still failed too mention why Sambo lost woefully in his backyard, why Jonathan lost in his base. Why Bankole that people still percieve to be a good man lost to someone that is not even known outside his territory.  Why Isiaka, Oyinlola and Senator Omisore lost in Osun.

Alliance between ACN and CPC would have resulted into flawless defeat of PDP, still CPC will still garner 25% in Oyo and Ogun and Lagos. Saturday will tell. I know many Igbo friends who will vote for their PDP governors and reps but another party for president.