Fear of run-off grips Jonathan
Font size: Bolade Omonijo 20/03/2011 02:05:00
President Jonathan Three weeks to the April 9 presidential poll, the expectation of an outright win that had dictated activities of the Jonathan/Sambo campaign has waned in recent times, following the surging crowds at the campaigns of General Muhammadu Buhari and Mallam Nuhu Ribadu. Group Political Editor BOLADE OMONIJO periscopes the race, especially as the president and his men are beginning to entertain thoughts of a second ballot

AT first, he appeared far ahead of other contestants for the coveted position of President of Nigeria. As the incumbent, he had all the privileges and advantages. That was immediately after the January 13 presidential primary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The landslide victory he recorded over the combined strength of the Northern consensus tendency and its candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was enough to make many analysts suggest that the battle was over.


Dr. Goodluck Jonathan is not just the incumbent President, he is the Commander-in-Chief and has control of state machinery and the sword of state that could be wielded as he pleases. While other candidates are starved of funds, his elaborate campaign structure and style show that the president has more funds than he actually needs to prosecute the battle.

Panic has seized the political camp of the president and the ruling party over the tumultuous crowds that have been turning up at the campaign rallies organized by the opposition parties. In the far North, the party of obvious choice is the Congress for progressive Change (CPC) that has General Muhammadu Buhari as its standard bearer. In Kaduna, Maiduguri, Gombe and Kebbi to which the General has taken his party’s gospel, the turn-out of residents has raised fears in the camp of President Jonathan. The passion of the followers showed that they were not only committed to bringing Buhari to power, but would not stand anything that stands in the way.

Thus, in Gombe and Kaduna, anything standing in the name of the ruling party was uprooted by the fanatical crowd that turned up for the rallies. This has raised the fear that there could, for the first time in the history of Nigeria, be a run-off or the presidential poll.

Apart from the four states that Buhari has visited with his team, he is believed to be the most popular candidate in his home state, Katsina, Kano and Bauchi. Tacticians in the camps of both men have thus been regularly checking the board. The permutation shows that in the far North, Buhari is the most acceptable of the presidential candidates. Six of the 10 states that recorded the highest registrants in the voter registration conducted in January are in the far North. They are Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno and Sokoto States.

The other four are Lagos and Oyo in the South West, Rivers in the South South and Benue and Plateau in the North Central.

There is also the Nuhu Ribadu factor in the North. When the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), whose flag the retired Assistant Inspector General of Police flies in the election, launched its presidential campaign in Dutse, Jigawa State on February 21, the crowd that welcomed leaders of the party was confounding. This, some leaders of the party in the North West state have attributed to the popularity of Alhaji Saminu Turaki, the immediate past governor of the state, and the soaring popularity of the party nationwide. The feat was repeated in Bauchi, Kwara and Benue States

At press time, the AC N was yet to hold rallies in Ribadu’s home state, Adamawa, neighbouring Taraba, Niger and Plateau, among other Northern states.

It is however obvious that the AC N is back in the saddle in the South West which could hold the key to determining who wins the election. The Yoruba are known to vote along the same line and the confidence that rebounded following the victory recorded by Governors Kayode Fayemi and Rauf Aregbesola is likely to boost response to the party’s message in the zone. The passionate response to campaigns by the party in Lagos, Osun, Ekiti, Ogun and Oyo States has shown that the ACN is fully in political control of the zone.

The possible loss of crucial votes in the South West and the North West has created panic in the Jonathan camp. A source in the campaign secretariat told The Nation that the PDP Presidential Campaign Council is working on two probabilities now, away from the cocky disposition in the early days of the campaign. The first, he said, is that the president could still record a narrow win: “We have to be realistic”, he said. We now know how the North West feels. It is not that they have rejected us as some have said. I have seen the campaigns. There is no doubt that the zoning sentiment is working in favour of Buhari and Ribadu. We know that, but if you have followed our own campaigns, too, you will see that we have quite a large followership. We have our strategies. So, I know that even if we don’t record outright win in some North West states, we shall surely secure no less than 25 per cent.

“Do not forget that the PDP is not a stranger in the South West. We are strong contenders there. Add to that the fact that we have almost total control of the political structure, sentiments and votes of the people of the South East and South South. There is also a large section of the North Central that is for the president. When you are in solid control of three zones and partial control of one, you don’t have much to fear. There is also the factor of the split of the votes of the opposition. They are not together. The presidency of Nigeria has never been decided by one or two zones. So, we are on sure ground.”

He added that, there is a second scenario. He said, “In the case that President Jonathan does not win at first ballot, it is not sewed up for any of the candidates. There is no doubt that he will be on the ballot for the rerun. That is when politics comes to play. Until then, it is not certain how things will go. We shall see then.”

Section 134 of the 1999 Constitution provides for outright victory when a candidate wins majority of the votes cast in addition to one-quarter of the votes in 24 states of the federation. In the event of a run-off election, the winner is still required to fulfill the same conditions. But, in a case where the second election is also deadlocked, a simple majority shall be deemed sufficient.

The wording of the constitution may become contentious in the event that a clear winner does not emerge at the first ballot. The supreme law says the run-off shall be between “the candidate that scores the highest number of votes at any election in accordance with the said subsection (2) of this section; and one among the remaining candidates who has a majority of votes in the highest number of states; so, however that where there are more than one candidate with a majority of votes in the highest number of states; the candidate among them with the highest number of votes cast at the election shall be the second candidate for the election.”

Pundits have contended that, had the twelve two-thirds debacle not arisen in the Second Republic, there would have been a legal battle to decide who, between Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim of the Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) would have been presented for the run off. The UPN thought it would naturally be Awolowo who was second in number of votes scored, while Ibrahim’s party had the spread.

In 2011, there are expectations that Buhari who is a cult hero in the far Northern states of Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Bauchi, Gombe, Borno and Yobe may have the votes given the record of turn out at elections and the registered voters, while Ribadu could have a better spread in all the zones of the country given the political astuteness of his party. The party has begun to make waves in the South eastern states of Abia and Imo, Niger Delta States like Akwa Ibom, Edo, Delta and Rivers; Benue and Kwara in the North Central, Bauchi, Adamawa, Taraba in the North East, and Jigawa, Kaduna and Kano in the North West. This is in addition to the bloc votes expected from the six South West states.

There is hardly any doubt that President Jonathan would, in the event of failure to secure victory at the first ballot, qualify for the second. He is expected to have either the votes or the spread.

On the political turf, the vociferous and total support pledged by his people in the Niger Delta made him seem untouchable and the others as pretenders to the act. Till date, his campaign train has touched all 36 states and he has told the people that he would govern well. The message was tilted to suit the states, all tending to say that state resources would be used to provide facilities.

Between January 13 and March 19, a lot has changed on the political scene generally and in the presidential race in particular. Of the 20 presidential candidates, that are now known four are believed to be serious contenders, while the other 16 merely make up the number. The parties, as platforms, can now be assessed in terms of their campaigns and the reception they got in the states that they have visited. The political configuration of the country is known. Now is the time to look at the strength and weaknesses of the four leading contenders.

The Shekarau factor

Ibrahim Shekarau is a second-term governor of Kano State. When he first contested the governorship in 2003 against Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso, the incumbent governor, he was given no chance. He had, until then, served as a teacher and civil servant. But, he proved to be the giant killer. He did the unthinkable by defeating a man whose party was not only in power at the state level, but at the federal. It was not as surprising when he won again in 2007 against a rampaging PDP.

Now, he is in the race for the presidency at a time that his party is in a bad shape. The departure of Buhari from the ANPP and the lukewarm attitude of fellow Governors Ali Modu Sheriff and Ibrahim Gaidam affected the capacity of the party to maintain a decent place along the national political corridor. However, after Shekarau picked Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, deputy national chairman of the party and former governor of Edo State as his running mate, the campaign jerked back to life and Shekarou has been traversing the country. The qualities of the former teacher have come out as a gifted communicator. He is deemed the winner of the Friday night presidential debate in eloquence and composure. But in substance he was trounced by Ribadu. It is however difficult to figure out how the outcome of that debate could influence votes on April 9.

For the four major contenders, the struggle continues. And, especially for Jonathan, the fear of a run-off is the beginning of wisdom.