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Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants - Business (2) - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Business / Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants (9115 Views)

Poll: Looks like a good offer. Should we sell??

Yes: 50% (70 votes)
No: 32% (45 votes)
Don't Care: 17% (24 votes)
This poll has ended

FG To Commence Work On Three Coal Power Plants / Nigeria Fails To Attract $100bn Oil Investments / BRICS Nations To Create $100bn Development Bank (2) (3) (4)

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Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by harakiri(m): 2:02pm On Mar 28, 2011
So long as we can have constant power supply, who cares. Definitely Nigerians will start paying higher rates but aren't we paying PHCN bills for electricity we didn't even see or use? On top of that, we spend a fortune monthly on gas for generators.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by Reference(m): 2:05pm On Mar 28, 2011
DeeJay20:

THIS IS A NO NO! AND NIGERIAN SHOULD FORGET ABOUT NUCLEAR POWER
FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, WE HAVE OTHER OPTIONS,


Guy, we are a hundred and fifty million people. There are very few countries our size, that seek development that have not gone nuclear. Energy security also means diversity. Incidents like those in Japan will only help improve safety down the line. In a way we should be thankful (and saddened) that the music stopped before the Japanese could find a chair. would you continue to fly after watching 'aircrash investigations', yes because level heads know lessons will be learnt and mistakes avoided. We should also consider that oil and gas is finite, does a lot of environmental damage and is our only economic life blood for now. We need to diversify. Renewables are fine but are unreliable. Certainly not primarily for emerging economies.

By the way just reading down the page of 'The Punch - pg 20' today it is claimed that the chairman, technical committee of the national council on privatisation, Mallam Mohammed Hayatudeen has resigned over possible conflict of interest. Apparently he has a interest in a company that is part of a consortium that has submitted an EOI in some of the power firms slated for privatisation.

Now this really worries me. I understand (not my assessment) that the Hayatudeen fellow is a decent and honourable man but I cannot but help think he has lit a fuse and jumped ship hoping to harvest floating wood. This cannot be right. In my opinion if we are to truly succeed no one in that privatisation office should be permitted to be involved in the bidding process now and in the nearest future. this should have been made known to them from the onset. It is like Jega quitting now to join a political party to contest office. Who will not say his election will be crooked. Secondly, I honestly think these bids should be reserved for foreign owned companies alone. Whoever wins can then be compelled to appoint directors subsequently. For all I care he may just be fronting and these are the kinds of things that fuel graft in government. We need clean companies, unknown players like the MTN's of the telecomms to start with. When it ignites, the Glbacomms of the power sector can the emerge.

As I mentioned some months ago I have a feeling that what some 'players' missed in the 'somewhat shock' privatisation of the telecomms industry they have vowed and will do whatever it takes to ensure their grip and maximum return when its time to bury PHCN. This whole thing is taking too long and like kitchen affairs, the fear is that the whole thing might just  become overcooked.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by oluwabamis(m): 2:06pm On Mar 28, 2011
i have always said that we are just joking when it comes to this power problem. 2020 will come and go and we will still be like this. power generation/distribution and all that is not rocket science.

All we need is a consortium of technical partners, the human and natural resources are abundant in nigeria. several oil companies in nigeria, generates hundreds of megawatts from gas, lets have a technical committee of seasoned professionals who will tackle this issue head on. as for the indians, pls leave them out of it. indians will be the worst mistake we can ever make.

meanwhile get a good diesel gen, because we still have to wait for some time.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by ektbear: 2:08pm On Mar 28, 2011
@Reference: Nigeria has the 7th largest natural gas reserves on earth. There is also a lot of coal. Absolutely NO need to go nuclear. It is silly.

Most of these countries that have gone nuclear have done so because they are not blessed with natural resources to the same degree Nigeria is.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by debosky(m): 2:21pm On Mar 28, 2011
Sell the whole lot to the Brazillians I say. . . as long as they are competent to run the facilities (i.e. have a track record) and have penalties imposed for poor performance.

I don't think this is a credible bid though, PROINFRA stands for Fund for Promotion of Sustainable Infrastructure Projects, and doesn't sound like a body capable of running power infrastructure.

Even with the 'fears' of high bills, the bills won't still compare to the expenditure and man hours wasted on running millions of generators all over the country.

The BPE appears to have done a good job in splitting the power distribution and transmission entities into logical units. The key will be in ensuring that the right performance contracts are written and enforced.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by estatemark(m): 2:38pm On Mar 28, 2011
Any thinking investor knows that Nigeria power sector for now is a gold mine, no matter the amount involved and provided the political environment is predictable, the cost can be recouped in a very shortwhile though at the expense of Nigerians who will have to pay high bills . ( MTN gives a a clue grin). It is instructive for the Government to consider all angles carefully and make sure such investment does not mortgage the collective interest of Nigerians.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by ideylaff: 2:44pm On Mar 28, 2011
Any thinking investor knows that Nigeria power sector for now is a gold mine, no matter the amount involved and provided the political environment is predictable, the cost can be recouped in a very shortwhile though at the expense of Nigerians who will have to pay high bills . ( MTN gives a a clue ). It is instructive for the Government to consider all angles carefully and make sure such investment does not mortgage the collective interest of Nigerians.

@ estatemark  True,  But MTN have a stiff competition with other Telco providers so they cannot afford to mess up though they still dont give value for money, just imagine 1 player across the country so powerful, just like UK's British Telecom

ds deal looks like sell your soul to the devil at the expense of our desperation to get our power sorted,

Kinda like an Indecent Proposal, (seen the movie) bro,
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by EzeUche(m): 3:08pm On Mar 28, 2011
I do not mind if Brazilian investors want to invest in our energy sector. Remember the histories of our two countries are intertwined.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by AjanleKoko: 3:20pm On Mar 28, 2011
debosky:

Sell the whole lot to the Brazillians I say. . . as long as they are competent to run the facilities (i.e. have a track record) and have penalties imposed for poor performance.

I don't think this is a credible bid though, PROINFRA stands for Fund for Promotion of Sustainable Infrastructure Projects, and doesn't sound like a body capable of running power infrastructure.

PROINFRA is a Brazillian infrastructure investment vehicle, not a power conglomerate.
This bid is kinda like CNOOC bidding $50bn for the NNPC stake in the JVs. Not practical. If we believe what was written in the power sector blueprint released last year, there's going to be a balance in both the upstream and the downstream segments of the sector, similar to India's telecom 'circles'. Essentially, the market is going to be segmented, and there will 'supposedly' be a mix of participation. Let's see how it goes.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by Ibime(m): 3:25pm On Mar 28, 2011
Interesting to hear that the companies interested can generate 1 mega-watt per $1 billion. Their efficiency in comparison to our Fed Govt (who've thrown $20bln at the problem and yet to fix it) should encourage us to sell the whole bombaclaart industry.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by debosky(m): 3:28pm On Mar 28, 2011
@ AJ

My thoughts precisely. Although CNOOC wouldn't be interested in running the JVs, more like directing production for their own usage so that's a slightly different situation.

PROINFRA's bid can only work if they are coming in to provide financing for a proven power infrastructure entity that is interested in running the assets but lacks the requisite financial capability to make the purchase.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by ektbear: 3:34pm On Mar 28, 2011
AjanleKoko:

there's going to be a balance in both the upstream and the downstream segments of the sector, similar to India's telecom 'circles'. Essentially, the market is going to be segmented, and there will 'supposedly' be a mix of participation. Let's see how it goes.

What do you mean by this? In layman's terms. The three different segments (generation, transmission, distribution) will be decoupled. But the only "mix of participation" will be in the generation component, not the other two. Transmission and distribution will remain monopolies. Transmission a gov't monopoly (but managed by some 3rd party), distribution local monopolies.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by AjanleKoko: 3:44pm On Mar 28, 2011
debosky:

@ AJ

My thoughts precisely. Although CNOOC wouldn't be interested in running the JVs, more like directing production for their own usage so that's a slightly different situation.

PROINFRA's bid can only work if they are coming in to provide financing for a proven power infrastructure entity that is interested in running the assets but lacks the requisite financial capability to make the purchase.

They'll probably show up with some Brazilian company that will manage the assets. Like Mubadala buying telecoms license, and showing up later with their national carrier.

ekt_bear:

What do you mean by this? In layman's terms. The three different segments (generation, transmission, distribution) will be decoupled. But the only "mix of participation" will be in the generation component, not the other two. Transmission and distribution will remain monopolies. Transmission a gov't monopoly (but managed by some 3rd party), distribution local monopolies.

Precisely.
Though on the transmission side (the upstream), it will be a government majority shareholding. Government will team up with 3rd parties to own/manage existing power plants and build new ones. Not PPP, but joint venture. And they will probably do some sort of bidding round for the existing and new proposed power assets, same as the way they do for O&G assets.

That's what I meant by 'balance'. Both the generation and distribution will have significant private investment opportunities.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by debosky(m): 3:53pm On Mar 28, 2011
AjanleKoko:

They'll probably show up with some Brazilian company that will manage the assets. Like Mubadala buying telecoms license, and showing up later with their national carrier.

It's not even a Brazillian fund, it's owned by a host of 18 different countries in Latin America and Europe. The running firm could be from anywhere from Spain to Ecuador. I don't still regard the bid as realistic - $100bn is above and beyond anything the fund has ever handled since it was established.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by Nobody: 4:05pm On Mar 28, 2011
The minister was probably exaggerating events.I dont believe the $100 billion story. PROINFRA is not even a company.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by Rossikk(m): 4:07pm On Mar 28, 2011
$100 billion is a lot of money. If it were deployed to infrastructure, it could transform the nation in 5 years.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by ideylaff: 4:11pm On Mar 28, 2011
$100 billion is a lot of money. If it were deployed to infrastructure, it could transform the nation in 5 years

In less dan that sef,

it will be really sad if some people are colluding to drum up these figures to favour GEJ, really shameful as well.
undecided
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by ektbear: 4:12pm On Mar 28, 2011
It just sounds too fraudulent. A lot of the infrastructure is dilapidated or from the 60s, 70s. Why would they want to pay so much for infrastructure that will require a lot of capital to maintain, improve and fix?

$10 billion sounds like a more reasonable bid for Nigeria's power plants. . . not $100 billion.

Somebody probably made a typo/numerical error or was otherwise confused.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by hercules07: 4:17pm On Mar 28, 2011
@Rossik

Do you think your guys in PDP will allow the fund to be spent on infrastructure, even if the Brazillian guys spend this amount on power will the government be strong enough to regulate them properly?
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by Nobody: 4:26pm On Mar 28, 2011
. . . and what if Jonathan loses this election and the new president (e.g Buhari) does not believe in privatization? What happens to the . . .
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by ideylaff: 4:27pm On Mar 28, 2011
@Rossik

Do you think your guys in PDP will allow the fund to be spent on infrastructure, even if the Brazillian guys spend this amount on power will the government be strong enough to regulate them properly?


my bro @ hercules07 , Hmmmmm your making sense ooooo, as soon as senate sees this, all they think of is, me me me me me /I I I I I I  iii  I will go to Brazil to negotiate the deal, estacode estacode, gimme something b4 we approve it, whats my cut, chop chop  sad sad

anoda angle is if .say or make u , imagine u dont pay your bill on time and the Boys/Clan 4rm the Brazillian favelas land 4 Nija, with their Guns, na wahala be dat oooooo LOL cheesy
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by Pharoh: 4:31pm On Mar 28, 2011
Everything just have to go fine at the end of the day, we need long lasting solutions in this sector.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by ektbear: 4:37pm On Mar 28, 2011
J12:

. . . and what if Jonathan loses this election and the new president (e.g Buhari) does not believe in privatization? What happens to the . . .

That would suck.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by ideylaff: 4:39pm On Mar 28, 2011
. . and what if Jonathan loses this election and the new president (e.g Buhari) does not believe in privatization? What happens to the . . .

That would suck.

LOL, @ Beaf is sucking it already with a couple of GEJ er's, wink cheesy
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by EzeUche(m): 4:43pm On Mar 28, 2011
GEJ is good for business and investment. Buhari will scare away investors.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by Nobody: 4:44pm On Mar 28, 2011
I foresee the transmission aspect of Nigeria's power system sidelined under the new private sector run power dispensation in Nigeria. I predict that the privatized discos will set up their own localized gencos to avoid cost of importing power from existing gencos through the grid.

Why? Because of associated high power losses over the transmission grid, the would-be inadequacy of the existing grid to supply the geometric rise in power demanded by the privatized discos and increase in generation by the privatized gencos due to new / efficient management.

Its analogous to telcos in Nigeria preferring to build their own back-haul or transmission system rather than sharing / leasing from Nitel. We don't need a grid system . It is inefficient, expensive and wasteful. The best way to do it is to use a ring system of localized power generation, transmission and distribution.

What will work best is if the distribution companies generate and transmit their own power. That's exactly what the Bonny Utility Company (BUC) does in Bonny and NESCO in Jos. No wonder that are the only places in Nigeria where you will find 24-hr electricity. Its because they have control over all aspects of their power system.

When their capacity is exceeded by local demand (due to excessive use of current guzzling appliances), they then import from the grid and then penalize their customers for this added expense with higher rates. Look it up!!
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by hercules07: 4:47pm On Mar 28, 2011
ideylaffu

We will pay through our nose for the privatized power, the problem is that the people will be exploited because of a weak government and you cannot compare power to telecoms because at the distribution level it is going to be monopolistic.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by hercules07: 4:49pm On Mar 28, 2011
If GEJ loses, the good aspect of his power plan will be taken onboard, the rubbish one will be jettisoned, government is a continum (sp?), Buhari must honor agreements made in good faith.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by EzeUche(m): 4:52pm On Mar 28, 2011
Rossikk:

ekt bear said:

That's ridiculous. Those 23 power plants are goldmines for any company in possession of them. The govt know that. The firm knows that. They are literally handed a monopoly on power generation, with a $100 billion investment which, if recouped at a profit rate of just $5 billion per annum, reaches maturity in 20 years, with the rest, pure profit from thereon! No govt, knowing that, will agree to sell all the plants for $10 billion. Your analysis fails to include projected earnings to the firm issuing from ownership in the long term.



I see you understand business very well my friend. Many people have not realized this, but I am not worried about these investors. If they can improve the energy sector in Nigeria, I am in full support of it.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by collinsJn(m): 4:59pm On Mar 28, 2011
Posted on: Today at 02:00:18
PM
Posted by: Gayigaskia
Insert Quote
This sounds like that
unfinished airport in Asaba
that they commissioned to get
votes. GEj is desperately trying
to mislead people. So U MEAN Dey Didn't FINISH Dat AirPort In Asaba and Dey Went Ahead 2 Commission It.Na Wah Oooooo 4 Our Leaderz.
Re: Brazilian Investor Offers $100bn For Nigeria's 23 Power Plants by ektbear: 5:02pm On Mar 28, 2011
@kalokalo: Your premise is that transmission losses are very high.

That isn't true, at least in the West

Transmission and distribution losses in the USA were estimated at 6.6% in 1997[9] and 6.5% in 2007.[9] In general, losses are estimated from the discrepancy between energy produced (as reported by power plants) and energy sold to end customers; the difference between what is produced and what is consumed constitute transmission and distribution losses.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission#Losses

Furthermore, if I own a likely very profitable business like the two Lagos power discos, I'd much rather spend my cash wiring everyone, maintaining my infrastructure than investing too much in power generation myself.

However, you are right about Lagos. There it might make some sense to cut out the middle man (transmission grid), especially if the power plants are very close by (which for Lagos is already the case.) In that setting, sure, cut out the middle man and deal directly with the power company.

But in a huge swath of land like NE Nigeria? Probably not a good idea.


Its analogous to telcos in Nigeria preferring to build their own back-haul or transmission system rather than sharing / leasing from Nitel. We don't need a grid system . It is inefficient, expensive and wasteful. The best way to do it is to use a ring system of localized power generation, transmission and distribution.
Well, you still need a way to share electricity across local grids.

And once you do that, then what is the practical difference between that setup and a national grid?

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