Why G.E.J. may coast to victory
THIS discussion will have nothing absolutely to do with semantics. It will do little, if anything at all, to help anyone in the academia who is looking for a reference point for a paper or thesis; and for those well versed in "grand politics and politicking", they are warned ahead of time that they may be disappointed, because only common folks like us will read it, understand it, and not find too many faults with it.
We wish only to be plain-sailing and plain-speaking. That is the essence here. For that reason, I shall begin in this wise: given what we have on the ground, today, there is almost nothing in place, especially from the perspective of the political opposition, that will prevent President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan returning to Aso Rock Villa on May 29, 2011.
What are we saying? We’re saying, in essence, that everything seems to be in place to deliver to him and the ruling P.D.P something in the neighborhood of a landslide victory, come April 10. For once, nearly every political pundit agrees with that view. Ordinary citizens, among the estimated 60 million-plus that registered to take part in April’s elections, may already have taken it for granted that no other candidate from whatever other party will be elected to the job of fourth chief-executive of the Third Republic, unless under three distinct scenarios.
The first scenario may be for Dr. Jonathan to pull out of the race, abruptly, which everybody considers to be near impossible. The second scenario could be incapacity or a kind of terminal ailment. And the third, death. Someone recently told this writer that the last two won’t, not that they can’t, happen, because President Jonathan would, as we know it, have been an extremely unlucky man for either fate to befall him at this point.
As a lay-African, this writer believes there is too much going for the president and his campaign to think he will derail now. As a lay-man, he sees fate and destiny on the side of G.E.J., as far as these elections are concerned. Call it superstition. Mr. Goodluck has been a lucky man almost from the very minute he delved into party politics. No time to go down memory lane right now. But, of course, it’s no secret how every other rival, mentor, boss, friend, enemy, acquaintance or colleagues has had to give way, whether voluntarily or involuntarily, every time G.E.J needed to take a step in politics. Not even O.B.J., who is the acclaimed master tactician, not even he, in all his glory, could annihilate his political opponents in the manner Goodluck Jonathan did it in January 13’s P.D.P presidential primary election. Once the purportedly powerful Governors Forum couldn’t but join the G.E.J band-wagon, once Alhaji Atiku could not even take his own home-state of Adamawa at the party primary, and once all these doomsayers were proved wrong, almost to embarrassing proportions, that the P.D.P was going to collapse after selecting a Jonathan candidacy, you almost saw the inevitability of the wall of Jericho falling. What we’re saying is that in 2011, not 2015, 2019 or further back in 2007, providence appears to have cleared the path for this Ijaw-born political kinpin.
Now, let’s be more practical. Everybody seems to have taken it for granted that anyone the P.D.P brings forward as its candidate will almost certainly occupy Aso Rock. In 1999, that was true, when O.B.J was selected, so to speak. Not even the intense animosity of his kinsmen in the Yoruba-dominated western region could stop him. En masse, they had forsaken him, and embarrassed him even in his own ward, somewhere in Abeokuta in Ogun State. You saw it back then, namely, that the only political party that had tentacles across the length and breadth of Nigerian was P.D.P. inside the party’s rank and file were heavyweights of all persuasions: former gnerals, money-bags, political "gurus", the academia, as well as wily but highly professional opportunists. If you were a part of the G.34 coalition, you knew virtually all that was to know the antecedents of national politics, and you could rest assured that virtually anyone who came under the umbrella of Africa’s largest political party was going to get nearly everything he wanted.
What we’re saying here is that the pillar that saw Obasanjo win the presidency in 1999 and 2003 was responsible, more than anything else, for the late Mr. Yar’Adua’s victory in 2007. Maybe, matters would have turned sour for Dr. Jonathan if the P.D.P had, as some in the northern half of the party predicted, torn itself in pieces, because of G.E.J’s emergence.
The facts on the ground are too compelling to suggest otherwise. One fact on the ground is, and has to be, the power of incumbency. In elections of this nature, be they in Uganda, South Africa, Egypt, Mexico, Japan or Australia, this factor pays off handsomely. Why not here? O.B.J. did benefit immensely from the incumbency factor, in much the same way that Alhaji Yar’Adua would have done, had he lived to be the P.D.P flag-bearer.
The privilege of being the incumbent chief-executive has been exploited to very great use by Dr. Jonathan. Look! to criss-cross a country as vast and populous as Nigeria, all in the name of election campaigns, can’t have been an easy proposition for most of the remaining presidential candidates. You may think they count less. On the contrary, G.E.J’s campaign my have managed to tour 70 per cent of the country, before the Buhari or Ribadu campaigns will have managed to cover a few states.
Yes! The advent of mobile telephony and the widening use of the internet, especially the social networking sites, has done so much to bring various candidates closer to the electorate. But, at the same time, radio and television will remain the main mediums of communication. They are the ones that can take the voices and faces of candidates to voters who live or work in the remotest of villages. They are the ones who can turn a relative unknown into household names or faces.
Coming to the real nitty-gritties of what will or won’t count on election-day: let us honestly tell ourselves that a bigger majority of those who will be voting in April are illiterate or semi-literates. This is the bane of the democratic process in much of Africa and many other parts of the Third World. For democracy, having so many parties standing in elections is a good thing. But, of course, Dr. Jonathan and the P.D.P are pitted against an assortment of opposition candidates, and for many uneducated eyes, confusion has almost always been the order of the day. In 2003, the P.D.P benefited immensely from the inevitable problem caused by various candidates and parties represented by different "party" symbols and the like. Jonathan will do, too.
Also, we saw in the 2003 race an assortment of Igbo presidential candidates pitted against O.B.J both at the P.D.P primary election and the general election proper. Of course, the APGA candidate, Chief Ojukwu, performed no better than an Igbo-born front-runner would have done. No matter how much anybody may try to make of this argument about voters having now been better educated and more enlightened, we don’t expect much to change in the voting pattern this year, especially in the race for president. Having removed the Atiku factor, and not minding whether or nor the former vice-president will work behind the scenes against the P.D.P’s choice of candidate, the anti-Jonathan vote that will come from the north will no doubt be divided, with the likes of the C.P.C. and A.C.N. candidates, among others, in the race. These are simple calculations and permutations that can’t be discountenanced.
Besides, if the facts and statistics on the ground are anything to go by, then, let no-one expect Dr. Jonathan to do badly in the north-west, north-central or even the north-east. As a party, the P.D.P enjoys a fair degree of backing in those geopolitical entities. It’s hard to see him gaining a majority of the popular votes in at least a third of the states in that region. In those northern states where he may not win outright, he looks set to win a third of the popular votes.
Yes! Nigeria, like many other countries, is a place where ethnic, religious and sectional sentiments influence voting patterns. But, over the years, this country has caused to graduate a fairly sizeable chunk of highly enlightened voters. To Dr. Jonathan’s credit, a voting population. They cut cross geography, language and religion.
They can be found in large numbers, not least in the urban communities.
(To be continued)

http://www.champion.com.ng/displaycontent.asp?pid=5468

The privilege of being the incumbent chief-executive has been exploited to very great use by Dr. Jonathan. Look! to criss-cross a country as vast and populous as Nigeria, all in the name of election campaigns, can’t have been an easy proposition for most of the remaining presidential candidates. You may think they count less. On the contrary, G.E.J’s campaign my have managed to tour 70 per cent of the country, before the Buhari or Ribadu campaigns will have managed to cover a few states.

As much as I remain a GEJ fan, I must confess that this is a poorly crafted piece.

As a lay-African, this writer believes there is too much going for the president and his campaign to think he will derail now. As a lay-man, he sees fate and destiny on the side of G.E.J., as far as these elections are concerned. Call it superstition. Mr. Goodluck has been a lucky man almost from the very minute he delved into party politics. No time to go down memory lane right now. But, of course, it’s no secret how every other rival, mentor, boss, friend, enemy, acquaintance or colleagues has had to give way, whether voluntarily or involuntarily, every time G.E.J needed to take a step in politics

Who dey read champion paper self?

The only way the PDP can win is by rigging. I have worked for the publicity of a presidential campaign of one the Hausa millionaires supporting GEJ, because they are afraid of Buhari. Only those without conscience will vote for the PDP. The evil atrocities of the PDP have left the masses poorer, with mass failures by pupils and poorly educated graduates, etc,

^^ Many Nigerians have done well, economically, in recent years. Nobody really believes people like you when you regurgitate these exaggerated claims of mass regression.

Andre Uweh:

As a lay-African, this writer believes there is too much going for the president and his campaign to think he will derail now. As a lay-man, he sees fate and destiny on the side of G.E.J., as far as these elections are concerned. Call it superstition. Mr. Goodluck has been a lucky man almost from the very minute he delved into party politics. No time to go down memory lane right now. But, of course, it’s no secret how every other rival, mentor, boss, friend, enemy, acquaintance or colleagues has had to give way, whether voluntarily or involuntarily, every time G.E.J needed to take a step in politics

This election really let me know that Nigerians from a certain region (or two) are no better than Apes in the way they approach matters! What is "Lucky" about a corrupt man? What is Lucky about a man that has depleted your nation's Treasury? What is lucky about a man who became a Multi-millionaire just 6 months after entering politics? What is lucky about a man whose wife is clearly corrupt? Whats lucky about a man that is clearly seeking a way to rig the elections, dodges debates, plants bombs then accuses the opposition, then refers to one of the accused as his "Foster Father"? What is lucky about a man that exonerated a terrorist group even when the terrorist group claimed responsibility for a deadly and vicious maiming? What is lucky about a man that asked the populace to "pray to God to ask the terrorists to repent and confess their sins?". . . . .

You guys are insane, for real!

^^^

Yeah, but he's a real son of the soil. That's what it comes down to. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for me, I'm yet to hear one intelligent argument as to why he should continue in this position post May.

@orikinla ,
pls dont blame your failures on GEJ. Go sort your life out.

champion newspaper? ? more like key points newspaper.

appletango:

^^^

Yeah, but he's a real son of the soil. That's what it comes down to. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for me, I'm yet to hear one intelligent argument as to why he should continue in this position post May.

One intelligent reason giving by his MORONIC supporters is that clueless GEJ will give us FRESH AIR! fvcking retards!