As Nigerians go to the polls next Saturday to start the process of electing those who will lead them for the next four years, our correspondents from across the country write on the strength and weaknesses of major political parties featuring in the elections.

Next Saturday, Nigerians will go to the polls in the first round of elections to choose the 109 senators and 360 House of Representatives members for the National Assembly. In the following weeks, the electorate will repeat the ritual as they will be electing the president and governors in about 31 states as well as members of state Houses of Assembly in all the 36 states of the federation.

Ahead of the elections, major political parties in the country have been involved in rigorous campaigns to woo voters to their side and for their candidates, using various strategies. In the course of electioneering, the parties have been able to show their areas of strength and weaknesses, factors that would combine to determine their successes at the polls.

Ogun
In Ogun State, there are four major political parties preparing to slug it out in the polls. They are Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP) and the new entrant, the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN).

The PDP has to work harder, since, given the present situation, it appears uncertain that the party will win convincingly like it did in the 2007 polls. The centre seems not to be holding again.

Some PDP members who are loyalists of the state governor, Chief Gbenga Daniel, have dumped the party for the PPN, on allegations of injustice and stolen mandate which, they said, were meted out to them by the party hierarchy in the recent primaries. The PDP is polarised and its membership grossly depleted.

With former President Olusegun Obasanjo at the forefront of its campaign, the party has the strength to win elections, but it is not certain whether it will win majority votes.

The popularity of ACN, however, is soaring in the state. An opinion poll conducted by an organisation indicated that the ACN had the capacity to win in the South-West states, one of which is Ogun.
The party is not leaving any stone unturned to ensure its victory at the polls coupled with the fact that it will take advantage of the division in the PDP to win the state.

The Labour Party is also a force to reckon with in the political permutation of the state. The party is embarking on an aggressive campaign in all the nooks and crannies of the state.

Chief Olajide Awosedo, the party’s gubernatorial candidate, has also helped its popularity. The party has its presence everywhere in the state and it has not shown any sign of weakness in any form.
The PPN is the newest party in the state and is believed to have the backing of Governor Gbenga Daniel. As new as it is, however, it has footings throughout the state.

Bayelsa
The political landscape of Bayelsa State is taking a new shape with the entry of the Labour Party and ACN, coupled with the defection of notable politicians to their fold. The state, since 1999, has been under the control of the PDP, which had produced the likes of former Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, President Goodluck Jonathan (once as a deputy governor and, then, governor) and Governor

Timipre Sylva.
The question is: Can the PDP repeat the 1999, 2003 and 2007 performances, especially when over 60 per cent of politicians who played notable roles then have defected to other political parties?
Although President Jonathan remains the leader of the PDP, most of his friends and members of the Green Movement — his campaign organisation then in 2003 — have defected to Labour Party, where Timi Alaibe is contesting for the gubernatorial seat. With the development, some people were under the impression that LP was having the backing of the presidency, until President Jonathan cleared the air on the matter during his last visit to the state.

“I am a PDP member and I will not support a candidate that is not in PDP. Bayelsa is a PDP state and if opposition parties get votes in the state, people will not believe me,” the president had said.
Losing the state to the opposition parties will say much about the credibility of the president in his home state and Chief Timipre Sylva, hence, the present administration is doing everything to deliver dividends of democracy to the over 1.7 million people in the state.

Bayelsa is made up of eight local governments with Yenagoa Local Government Area having the highest number of registered voters. Contestants for various elective positions spread across all the local governments, but of great concern is the gubernatorial race. Presidential election is going to be an easy win for Jonathan, but where the pendulum of victory will swing at the end of the conduct of the gubernatorial election remains unknown. Members of the opposition parties, especially Labour Party, believe that the era of incumbency factor is gone, as they submit that people are tired of the present administration and are yearning for change.

In Bayelsa, political analysts are of the opinion that the contest is between PDP and LP, while ACN, according to them, might not pose a serious threat to either of the two political parties.


Muhammadu Buhari
Bauchi
The leading parties in Bauchi State are ACN, ANPP, CPC, PDP, APGA, PRP, KOWA, while others are just making up the number. Most of them do not have candidates for any of the elective offices in the general elections.

The CPC seems to be the leading opposition party in the state, perhaps due to the popularity of it presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, but its greatest undoing are the crises that have continued to trail its primaries. Most of the aspirants who lost out are still crying foul. Many of its candidates in the state are relatively unknown politicians, who only want to ride on the popularity of Buhari to victory.

As for the ACN, which is another opposition party in the state, it has all its candidates drawn from the long list of former PDP members who lost out in the primaries and found solace in the party, a development that made many to categorise the party in the state as that of losers.

The party is said to be backed by Abuja-based politicians led by the Secretary to the Government of Federation (SGF), Mahmud Yayale Ahmed, supported by the likes of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Bala Mohammed Duguri; former Governor Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu and a host of others who are believed to be bent on seeing the ruling PDP lose out in the elections.

The ANPP has lost its leading opposition status as it now has a negligible number of political bigwigs in the state. In fact, the only strong politician it has in its fold is perhaps its gubernatorial candidate, Senator Nazif Suleiman Gamawa, who made an entry after losing his aspiration in the PDP.

Although the party has intensified its campaigns in the hinterlands, it does not have the wherewithal to match the strength of other high-ranking parties. Political analysts are of the opinion that the party might not win any significant office in the election, considering the fact that it lost its followership to Buhari’s CPC.

The All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), like many others, only have their presence within the Bauchi metropolis where a few of the posters of its barely known candidates are seen.

The party to beat in the state is the PDP, which is doing everything to ensure that it wins all offices in the coming polls. The internal crisis that engulfed it after the primaries remains. Some of the members who felt aggrieved have vowed to take a pound of flesh in return by ensuring that the party loses in the general elections.

Governor Isa Yuguda, who is also the North-East zonal coordinator of the Jonathan/Sambo Campaign Organisation, is doing everything to ensure that the party does not lose, particularly the seat which he occupies. The party is, therefore, one that is fighting many foes within and outside its fold.

Edo
In Edo State, the April elections may be a two-horse race between the PDP and the ACN.

The governor of the state, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, is of the ACN stock. A cross section of political analysts in the state is of the view that the ACN is synonymous with Oshiomhole, who is seen as the pivot. A school of thought believes that if Oshiomhole is taken away from the ACN, the party becomes insignificant.

The governor is said to be endowed with political will, influence and the capability to ensure that the ACN puts up a superlative performance in the April elections. Perhaps the verve with which he and the ACN are presently campaigning shows his understanding that nothing should be left to chance.

Prior to 2008, politics in Edo State was an all-PDP affair. That changed with Oshiomhole’s emergence as governor on the platform of the ACN. In 2009, that balance of power shifted dramatically.

Over time, the PDP started losing its majority control in the House of Assembly to court decisions and rerun elections which came on the heels of challenge to victories the party had earlier secured, while the ACN, which posed the challenge, began to catch up. The catching up appeared to be concluded with the PDP losing the edge after the supposed forceful removal of Zakawanu Garuba of the PDP as Speaker of the Assembly and the subsequent boycott of sittings by the remaining PDP lawmakers.

But the state chairman of the PDP, Chief Dan Orbih and the leadership of the party have been able to propel the PDP to provide what some analysts have described as constructive opposition. The opposition provided by Orbih’s leadership of the PDP has helped the party in regaining the confidence of the people to a level above what it was as of the 2007 elections.

However, some analysts believe that no matter what the PDP is faced with, the party has a way of bouncing back to reckoning when it matters most.

It would have been suffice to say that the ANPP has lost the modicum of significance or influence in Edo State. Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, the first civilian governor of the state, is the vice presidential candidate of the party in the April polls. Even with the presence and present status of Odigie-Oyegun, the ANPP has practically lost its structure in Edo State and it is without an identifiable leadership. The party might just be a mere participant in the forthcoming elections as it has nothing tangible on ground.

The core members of the ANPP in the state are now the foundation members of the CPC. They dumped the ANPP with General Buhari. The former chairman of ANPP in the state, Mr. Godwin Erhahon, is now the state chairman of the CPC. But that is how far the story goes. The party has not found its feet in the state and appears nowhere near putting up any serious showing in the polls.

Niger
On paper, there are 22 registered political parties in Niger State, but in practical terms, four of them are visible. The four are the PDP, ACN, CPC and the ANPP.

Only the PDP, ACN and the ANPP contested the 2007 general elections with each of the parties making appreciable impacts at the polls. The PDP won the gubernatorial election.

Since the 2007 elections, a lot of political realignment had taken place primarily as a result of infighting for the leadership of the parties and the formation of the CPC, which has General Muhammadu Buhari as its leader. It is a party, which incursion into the state was quick and wide. The CPC is strong in the Niger North Senatorial District made up signficantly of the Hausa-speaking community of the state. The party also has strong showing in Niger South and a little support in Niger East. It will not be surprising if the party wins some seats in the state House of Assembly and National Assembly in the elections.

As for the ACN, it is an assemblage of aggrieved former members of the PDP and a fusion of members of the then Action Congress (AC) and Democratic Peoples Party (DPP). It is a party to watch in the state going by the political figures that are behind it, including Captain Isah Mokwa, Alhaji Abubabar Magaji and Comrade Mohammed Adams Erena, who were political heavyweights in the administration of former Governor Abdulkadir Kure. Since the formation of the ACN, the party has shown good strength in Zone A. The choice of Honourable Abubakar Bawa Bwari, former chief whip of the House of Representatives, as its gubernatorial candidate has also added to its strength. However, the refusal of former Governor Kure to team up with the group has become a minus for the party.

Infighting has eroded the popularity of ANPP which made appreciable showing in the state in 2007 when it won four seats in the National Assembly and 11 in the state House of Assembly. At the moment, the party is in the court over who is its gubernatorial standard-bearer. Despite this, the ANPP is seen in the state as a mass movement with its root in the Gwari-speaking local government areas of the state.

Despite the feud within the party, it might still be in a position to pick a few seats in the state House of Assembly from the Niger East Senatorial District, because of the determination of Mr. David Umoru, who is claiming the gubernatorial ticket of the party.

The strength of the PDP in the state spreads across the three senatorial districts of the state.

It will be surprising if Governor Muazu Babangida Aliyu, who is the gubernatorial candidate of the party, does not win the poll, going by wide acceptability he enjoys among the indigenes and non-indigenes alike. It is also expected that the party will be able to get two or three senatorial seats and majority of the seats in the House of Representatives.


Nuhu Ribadu
Zamfara
In Zamfara State, out of the 17 parties that registered in the state, four of them stand out. They are PDP, ANPP, ACN and CPC.

The PDP produces the incumbent governor and it might be difficult for the opposition to outwit it in the April polls. The weakness of the party remains the internal crisis bedevilling it and its inability to stop the division within its ranks.

The ANPP would have been in power since 1999, but for Governor Alhaji Aliyu Mahmud Shinkafi who defected to PDP. The party’s strength lies in the rural areas where it has a huge following. The party is seen using religion or Sharia to attract more supporters. However, the party might be facing a challenge as it is no longer in government and most of the top shots have defected to PDP alongside the governor.

The ACN is headed by a veteran politician in the person of Alhaji Maibuhu Gummi. He is a grassroots mobiliser and this attests to the fact that ACN is gradually becoming popular. However, the party is bedevilled with crisis. The last-minute replacement of Alhaji Sarki Surajo by a cabal is tearing the party apart.

In the case of CPC, it has a lot of followership because of General Muhammadu Buhari. However, the party has to do a lot in terms of putting up structures in all nooks and crannies of the state. It is definitely a party for the future. Its gubernatorial candidate, Alhaji Muktar Lugga, appears to be warming up for the future.

Plateau
The most visible among the political parties are PDP, Labour Party CPC, ACN and ANPP.

The PDP is a force to reckon with as far as the April poll is concerned and has been a darling of the people of the state since 1999. Though some of the stalwarts recently defected to the Labour Party due to differences, many of them still have their hearts with the party. The victory for the party might not be total in all elections, except the presidential election because of the recent crisis in the party.

However, it is believed that Governor Jonah Jang, who is its gubernatorial candidate, is more positioned than his opponents in the election. Apart from the incumbency factor, the governor’s achievements also constitute good reasons. Elections into state House of Assembly, House Representatives and Senate might be dicey.

Closely following the PDP in the state is Labour Party with the deputy governor, Mrs. Pauline Tallen, as its standard-bearer for the gubernatorial race. The Labour Party was non-existent in Plateau State before some aggrieved PDP members defected to it. The gubernatorial race looks like a straight contest between the incumbent and his deputy.

The CPC has no strong political base in the Plateau State. The party will find it difficult winning any election, though it is relatively popular in Hausa/Fulani dominated areas. There is the possibility of the party getting one or two House of Assembly seats, an average Plateau State citizen perceives the CPC as a party with Islamic agenda.

The ACN was once a leading opposition party in the state following the defection of the former Governor Joshua Dariye and his cronies to the party. But with the return of majority of them along with their mentor to the PDP, the ACN has become a shadow of itself. Its gubernatorial candidate, Mr. Chirs Giwa, is, however, making efforts to give the party a life.

The ANPP has no formidable structure in the state since General Buhari jettisoned it for the CPC. Its gubernatorial candidate, Mr. Damishi Sango, has been trying to find a structure for it and the party will have to work hard to make appreciable impact in the coming elections.

Lagos
In Lagos State, 17 political parties will be participating in the April elections. The feeling is that not all the parties are serious about participating in the exercise. Their are ACN, PDP, Social Democratic Mega Party (SDMP), ANPP, LP and African Liberation Party (ALP) as contenders.

The ACN, political analysts contend, has a good chance of claiming over 70 per cent victory at the polls, while other political parties will scramble for the remaining. ACN will rely essentially on the structure it has on ground and the performance of Governor Babatunde Fashola since 2007. The ACN is also to enjoy the support of Labour Party, whose gubernatorial candidate recently traded his slot with Fashola on account of a perceived working alliance between the ACN and Labour Party for the April poll.

The PDP is expected to have an edge over other opposition parties as it remains the second largest political party in the state. However, lack of cohesion among members of the party seems to be its major setback.

Kano
The four prominent parties in Kano State are ANPP, PDP, CPC and ACN.

Being the ruling party in the state for eight years, the ANPP is assumed to have an edge over the other three parties. The reason is the incumbent governor, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, who is also its presidential candidate, has executed many projects, a development which has wormed the party into the hearts of the masses.

However, the PDP, which lost control to the ANPP about eight years ago, seems to have bounced back into reckoning, given the way it is now attracting supporters. The popularity of former Governor Musa Kwankwaso, who is the party’s gubernatorial candidate, has continued to grow. The party has a chance to win substantial votes in the coming polls.

The ACN has the state deputy governor, Alhaji Abdullahi Gwarzo, as its gubernatorial candidate. Gwarzo was a local government chairman and ALGON chairman before becoming the deputy governor. It was on this premise that he gained political popularity in the state. Political analysts believe he could spring surprise in the April poll.

The camp of CPC is now in crisis, following the declaration of Alhaji Muhammed Sani Abacha as the gubernatorial candidate of the party by a court. Some members of the party are not happy with his candidature. According to them, General Jafar Isa was their preference. The current wrangling can mar the chances of the party at the coming polls.

Jigawa
In Jigawa State, the political parties that have serious gubernatorial candidates include PDP, ACN, ANPP and CPC.

There are reports that political parties and their candidates are currently involved in aggressive campaigns, even in the night. Some of them are also said to be engaged in wooing voters with cars, motorcycles, cash and other gifts.

The state police command has warned against night campaign, describing it as dangerous.

Benue
The jostle for the soul of Benue State thickens with each passing day. The battle is a fight between the PDP and ACN. The renewed vigour of ACN is reportedly giving the PDP sleepless nights in the state. The entry of former Governor George Akume to ACN has also enhanced its chances and acceptability. The ACN, as the main opposition party, is making inroads to PDP strongholds. The PDP enjoys a large following. Majority of the leaders from the three senatorial districts have allegiance to the party. Those who left the party, led by Senator Akume, are the ones that have swelled the ACN, a development which has put the PDP on its toes. The PDP is depending on the achievements of its candidate and the governor of the state, Gabriel Suswam, for a return to power amid claim by main opposition party that the government has not met the expectations of the people.

Ondo
In Ondo State, only the presence of three political parties can be felt across the 18 local government areas, namely the Labour Party, the PDP and the ACN.

The LP is the ruling party in the state and this will go a long way to work in its interest. The performance of Governor Olusegun Mimiko in the last two years is another factor that can be in favour of the LP. The party has a followership that cuts across all the local government areas with its structure intact. However, its major strength lies in the fact that there is no crisis in the party.

However, the weakness of the party is in the poor showing of government in some areas of the state, particularly the southern senatorial district. Also, the effect of the primaries which led to the defection of some aspirants to other parties may turn out to be an albatross for the party.

The major strength of the PDP in the state is that despite losing power two years ago, it has structures across the local government areas of the state. Some of the candidates of the party enjoy acceptability among the people.

However, the division in the party is yet to be completely resolved as some of the chieftains of the party still do not agree with themselves.

The ACN in Ondo State is just putting its feet on ground and getting itself together. But the major strength of the party lies in events of the recent past where the party just won Ekiti and Osun states. Also, it benefited from the crisis over the conduct of the primary of the LP as some of the aggrieved members of LP defected to the party. They include Dr. Olu Agunloye, Mr Femi Adekanbi, Dr. Mike Akintade, among others.

But in terms of weakness, the party may not be able to put up a good fight against the LP and the PDP because it has just got itself together in the state.

Anambra
In Anambra State, the battle for 2011 has moved from political parties to individual candidate’s profile and track record. Notwithstanding, the major parties on ground are the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but one cannot completely rule out surprises from ACN and the Accord Party (AP) whose candidates are mainly aggrieved PDP and APGA, who defected following the controversial party primaries.

The major edge APGA is currently enjoying is the profile of its candidates. In Anambra Central Senatorial District, Prof Dora Akunyili, former NAFDAC boss and immediate past minister of communications, is tipped to win despite the stiff opposition mounted by ACN candidate, Dr Chris Ngige.

In Anambra North Senatorial zone, former Senator Joy Emordi, who is flying the APGA banner, is already reaping from the crisis that bedevilled the PDP, which has over three different candidates running for the same office.

However, the Accord Party with the likes of incumbent Senator Annie Okonkwo, Honourable CID Maduabum representing Nnewi North and South Federal Constituency cannot be said to be lacking in efforts to make its presence felt in the April general election.

Another factor that will further make APGA the party to beat is the growing awareness of having an ethnic party that will form a ready platform for Igbo presidency in 2015. This situation has forced some of the electorate to view other political parties as alien that do not cater for the overall interest of Ndigbo.


Ibrahim Shekarau
Borno State
Since the Boko Haram crisis in Maiduguri, the Borno State capital, in July 2009, the ANPP under the leadership of Senator Ali Modu Sheriff has continued to suffer setbacks.

Although Sheriff has tried to ensure the protection of lives and properties of its citizens by ensuring that adequate security is put in place, the PDP is cashing on the situation and flagging its flag higher by the day, more especially with the return of former Governor Mohammed Goni as the party’s gubernatorial candidate for the April polls. The PDP for the first time seemed to have come to term with reality and are basing its strength on the unity of its member.

Also, the Buhari’s CPC seems to be having a field day with greater hope of winning some of the political seats.

According to analysts, the strength of the ANPP in Borno State in the 2011 general elections will be a reflection of the amount of money the party is spending and also its romance with the PDP at the national level.

Yobe
Political watchers have claimed that the battle for the Yobe Government House is going to be between the ANPP and PDP owing to the fact that other political parties in the state have nothing in place to contend with the two.

Kwara
In Kwara State, there is political rivalry between veteran politician, Dr Abubakar Olusola Saraki and his son, Dr. Bukola Saraki, the governor of the state.

It could be said that the PDP is the only formidable party in the state. The zoning arrangement that was adopted by the governor is one of the reasons the party is having an upper hand. Also, the party is banking on power of incumbency to win the April polls.

However, the major problem that is facing the PDP is that the governor’s father who brought the party to power has deserted it and moved most of his loyalists to his newly formed Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN). His daughter, Senator Gbemisola Saraki, is the party’s gubernatorial candidate. People are of the opinion that older Saraki’s exit from PDP will affect the party’s chances in the coming polls.

The ACN, led by Alhaji Muhammed Dele Belgore (SAN), is also making wave in the state. The party is seen to be banking on the political crisis in the Saraki dynasty to ride to power. Its supporters are of the belief that protest votes resulting from the crisis rocking Saraki dynasty might give the party victory in the April elections.

Democratic Peoples Party (DPP), which came second in the 2007 poll, has Mr. Gbenga Olawepo as its gubernatorial candidate. The party has continued to campaign throughout the state, but it might not find it easy this time around with the strong presence of ACN and ACPN.

The CPC is also set to surprise the people of the state in the April elections. It has Alhaji Abdulraheem Abdulrasaq as its gubernatorial candidate. But it is rocked by crisis currently as one of the gubernatorial aspirants, Air Commodore Ayuba Buhari (retd), continues to maintain that he remains the party’s standard-bearer.

Kogi
In Kogi State, there are 23 political parties, out of which two are popular, the PDP and ANPP. Parties like the CPC and ACN are also making some impact in the state.

The state has benefitted in the last eight years with developmental projects scattered all around it by both the state and federal governments led by the PDP. However, the internal crisis that greeted the party after the primary elections, particularly, the gubernatorial primary, might be its albatross in the forthcoming polls, as chieftains of the party now sit on the fence. Many of the aggrieved aspirants in the last primary election have defected to ANPP, CPC and ACN, where they hope to actualise their dreams.

The ANPP, which is led by former Governor Abubakar Audu, has offered a platform for some PDP’s defeated aspirants. In essence, the party is set to feast on the internal crisis in the PDP to unseat it in the April polls.

The ACN was the darling of the people of the central senatorial district in 2007, but it has been reduced to a shadow of its old self as a result of internal crisis that attended its last governorship primary.

The CPC has no significant impact in the state but recently enjoyed the influx of aggrieved aspirants from PDP, among others. While the party may make little impact in the National Assembly election due to personalities involved, the crisis trailing its last gubernatorial primaries is far beyond what the party’s presidential candidate, General Buhari, can resolve. It is the only party in the state that parades three governorship candidates.

Enugu
In Enugu State, three political parties, namely PDP, Peoples for Democratic Change (PDC) and Labour Party are at the forefront of campaigns to occupy elective positions in April.

The strength of PDP lies in the incumbency factor. The recent rift between Governor Sullivan Chime and erstwhile PDP national chairman, Dr. Okwesilieze Nwodo, is a minus for the party as many people from Nwodo zone could hit back at the governor at the polls. Recent events in the state have shown that the PDP might not be able to repeat the feat of 2007 where it won all available elective positions, including the gubernatorial seat.

In the case of PDC, the presence of former Governor Chimaroke Nnamani has boosted its profile as the party is now a household name in the state. The party’s weak point is that its gubernatorial candidate, Dr. Dan Shere, is coming from the same Nsukka cultural zone with the LP candidate, Chief Okey Ezea, and there are fears that they could split the Enugu North Senatorial zone votes at the polls.

The L P could spring surprise at the polls because of its aggressive campaign, but its weakness is that its gubernatorial candidate, Chief Ezea, is seen is some quarters as not being patient enough.

Imo
In Imo State, there are three political parties that have equal opportunities to occupy the Government House, Owerri, popularly known as Douglas House. The political parties are PDP, ACN and APGA.
The PDP is growing strong in the state to retain power. It has the incumbent governor, Chief Ikedi Ohakim, seeking a fresh mandate.

The APGA is making waves in the state. Its standard-bearer for the gubernatorial race is Chief Rochas Okorocha. He hails from Orlu zone where the immediate past governor, Chief Achike Udenwa, also hails from. But it appears the people of Imo are against his ambition.

The ACN is another party which has a strong contender for the gubernatorial seat in person of Senator Ifeanyi Araraume, who contested the 2007 election on the platform of the PDP.

Ebonyi
In Ebonyi State, three leading political parties are flexing muscles to outwit one another in the forthcoming polls. They are PDP, ANPP and APGA.

There is the failure of the opposition to form a formidable coalition to wrest power from the PDP. However, the PDP is battling internal crisis, a development which has threatened its unity and cohesion. Its primaries have resulted in the exodus of many aggrieved members to opposition parties.

As for ANPP, its strength lies in the emergence of Dr Ogbonnaya Onu as its national chairman. This has served as a morale booster to many party faithful and candidates seeking various offices in the election.

APGA came into reckoning when former Minister of Culture and Tourism, Ambassador Franklin Ogbuewu, joined it and subsequently emerged as its gubernatorial candidate. The major strength of the party is in its massive grassroots mobilisation and the campaign adopted by the leadership under Comrade Jerry Obasi.

Abia
The coast is not clear in Abia State due to undercurrent moves by political gladiators in the state. However, the two leading political parties in the state are the PDP and Peoples Progressives Party (PPA). Peter Akomas, who is PPA gubernatorial candidate, is seen as the spirit behind the party. The exit of Governor Theodore Orji is seen as a minus to the party as he would have used his power of incumbency to strengthen it in the forthcoming polls.

In the PDP where Governor Orji holds sway, it is believed in many quarters that the power of incumbency is the party’s greatest asset.

Akwa Ibom
A few of the political parties have real presence and have fielded candidates for elective positions in Akwa Ibom State. They are PDP, ACN, ANPP and CPC.

The PDP is the ruling party in the state. However, the political gains and strength of the party are being threatened by what analysts have described as self-inflicted injuries. The growth noticeable in the ranks of opposition political parties is made possible by PDP members that defected.

Ahead of the elections, most of the PDP members that felt let down by the party leaders during the party’s last primary elections are set to play a spoiler’s role in the April polls.

The ACN cannot be written off. It is attracting crowds at campaigns. Its gubernatorial candidate, Senator John Akpan Udoedehe, is a former junior minister in the Federal Capital Territory and the campaign manager for Governor Godswill Akpabio in 2007 election. The party is counting on his experience in electioneering as well as the message of alleged high level of insecurity in the state which they have been hammering on with a promise to bring about positive change. Political pundits believe the party will be able to get a few seats in the state assembly and possibly the National Assembly.

The CPC is seen as weak in the state, but its gubernatorial standard-bearer, Mr. Larry Esin, is a well known figure, having emerged the second runner-up in the 2006 PDP gubernatorial primaries that had about 50 aspirants.

The ANP is also seen as lacking the strength to pull off an upset in the coming polls.

Oyo
In Oyo State, the PDP has the incumbency factor to its advantage and the party has been in power for the past eight years. In spite of the incumbency factor, the state governor, Adebayo Alao-Akala, has embarked on vigorous campaigns in every nook and cranny of the state. He has determined not to leave anything to chances, given the resolve of opposition against his government to unseat him.

The opposition against the party appears to be coming from Ibadanland, but the governor is quick to dismiss such impression that Ibadan people are not for his second term ambition. According to him, the opposition that he is having is from politicians who are bent on unseating him, declaring that they cannot succeed no matter how hard they tried.

The Accord Party (AP) is newly formed, following the exit of former Governor Rasidi Adewolu Ladoja from PDP. Ladoja is the gubernatorial candidate of the party for the April polls and his popularity and influence has rubbed on the party. The party has recorded teeming crowd at every rally it has addressed across the state.

The ACN has been waxing strong and has Senator Abiola Ajimobi as its gubernatorial candidate. It will be recalled that Ajimobi came second in the 2007 gubernatorial poll in the state and has been warming up again to win the seat this time around, given the rampaging status which the ACN has put on lately in the South West where it has formed governments in Ekiti and Osun states. The party’s weakness, however, is the crisis rocking it currently, a development that has seen aggrieved members disputing the victory of Ajimobi at the party’s last primary election.

The CPC is an emerging party in the state and readily made its presence felt, perhaps due to influence of its gubernatorial candidate, Mr. Adebayo Shittu and the popularity of his presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari. Analysts predict that the party could make some showing during the election, especially in Saki where Shittu hails from.

From Yinka Olukoya, Soji Ajibola, Ishola Michael, Uchechukwu Olisah, Dipo Laleye, Muhammed Sabiu, Isaac Shobayo, Adewale Ajayi, Kola Oyelere, Adamu Amadu, John Akpodovhan, Yinka Oladoyinbo, Okodili Ndidi, James Bwala, Yekini Jimoh, Johnson Babajide, Jude Ossai, Joe Nwachukwu, Clement Oko-Nnachi, Gill Nsa-Abasi and Bola Badmus.


http://tribune.com.ng/sat/index.php/politics-analysis/3644-as-elections-commence-the-contenders-the-pretenders.html