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If the strategy doesn’t work, you can always make changes to it when you are not in the heat of the moment. Often, a Pink Sheet company will be listed and traded, yet make no publicly accessible information regarding their financial position, the corporate fundamentals, or operational guidance. Shares of Barrick Gold (GOLD) rose as much as 12% at session highs, after filings late last week revealed Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway took a new position in the company during the second quarter. It is ever rising risk appetite is propelling unique boutique prices to new highs, as they lacks fundamental support. Arca Biophrama stock hit resistance in the $9's several times Friday afternoon and then sold off hard going into the close. These times are marked with red lines on the chart - 1906, 1929, 1937, 1965, 1998 and 2007. Every one of these occurrences was followed by an almost immediate bear market. While the DJTA has been weak, it has been able to hold above a key support level, indicating that the market is still in a holding pattern. So what`s holding up this market?
Using the same techniques of measuring relative strength, I went looking for signs of market leadership to measure where the market believe the pockets of economic strength are. In other words, Mr. Market is telling us not to expect much from the economy, but don`t get overly panicked because of the lack of defensive leadership. The "engines" of the economy, such as the cyclical industrial and semiconductors, financials and consumer discretionary stocks are not leading the market. As an example, investment legend Julian Robertson (see interview here) is worried about a stock market bubble. The bull case is that equities haven’t yet reached bubble levels at a time when fixed income is behaving bubbly,2 and that the Fed will support the market. Despite these warning signs, my base case scenario does not call for a full-blown bear market, but a correction much like the experience of 2010 or 2011. The chart below shows a stylized depiction of where different countries are in their economic cycles, while there may be a few minor quibbles about the exact positions, the key takeaway here is that the US is in the mid-cycle phase of an economic expansion and a recession, which is the major catalyst for a bear market, is not on the horizon.
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