werepeLeri:

i poo upon SaharaReporter's head. Who the hell is Ahmed El Rufai? Let him go and answer his case with the EFCC before coming to write like a patriot.

Implications for Governance in Nigeria and our Sub-Region


The scenario I see is one in which at best, the Jonathan administration will muddle through the next four years. Many of the PDP governors in the Northern States will either lose next week's election or cheat their way to four years of contempt of their people and unstable governance. Jonathan's political and governance skills even without any hostile opposition have not been great. In the last 4 years, the Yar'Adua-Jonathan administration spent over $200 billion of oil and non-oil revenues, including over $20 billion the Obasanjo administration left behind in the Excess Crude Account, with little to show for it. Not a single major infrastructure investment or policy initiative has been concluded in four years!

For example, Nigeria's budget for 2011 is the most interesting I have seen in my adult years. The entire oil revenue projections for the year could not cover the salaries and running cost of the Federal Government!

Government has become the biggest business in town and growing so rapidly from 2007 that we are resembling a perfect rentier state for the minority political elite. There is little or no investment in physical and human capital, even with very high oil prices the administration has enjoyed.

Many of his supporters think Jonathan's legendary good luck will somehow turn things around, but governance requires more than hope. We have to wait patiently and see how things unfold. And as we always do in Nigeria, pray.

And needless to add, how Nigeria performs politically and economically have implications for the growth and stability of the ECOWAS sub-region and Africa.
Thank you for listening.

It is unlikely that the CPC will accept to be part of any Jonathan administration, so a large swathe of the North will be in opposition for the first time in Nigeria's political history. It will be a worthy learning experience for all. It is also evident that the ACN and ANPP were in some kind of covert alliance with the PDP so it is likely that their presidential candidates and key officers will be offered cabinet positions in the Jonathan administration, thus leaving CPC as the last opposition party standing. This is an opportunity for the party to build its organization nationally and govern the handful of states it is likely to win, competently.

werepeLeri:

Last week, this guy was arraigned in court for corruption by the EFCC.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/04/efcc-docks-el-rufai-2-others-over-alleged-fraud/

Only SaharaReporters will make a celebrity out of such a person. What is the difference between Bode George and El Rufai? Because El Rufai is in CPC?

He should shut up answer his case with EFCC, spend time in jail and come out after ten years.

Gbawe:

For supplying an article based on what El-Rufai said? Anyway what El-Rufai writes below is the part worth reading IMO. El-Rufai , IMO , speaks the truth for those who live their lives using tangible logic and real evidence that can assist almost scientifically accurate deductions. No successful person , at least not any I know, rely on 'goodluck' and a belief in miracles that leads them to disregard facts while maintaining that things will have a different outcome to what the real facts point out is likely to happen.

In some parts of the country, media reports of low turnout were contradicted by results showing more than 70% turnout! In the 1960s and our subsequent republics, the electoral fraud was overt - ballot box snatching, ballot stuffing and chasing away voters for officials to vote on their behalf. Today in Nigeria, except for the South-East and parts of South-South, this rigging technology is no longer used. What is more common is the covert rigging which entails first, change the numbers on the result sheets, and then get the ballot papers thumb-printed to back up "the declared result". Our accurate voters' register will help resolve this.

The reason why I think the voters register may well save our democracy is this - should the opposition parties choose to go court, and require the ballot papers to be technologically scrutinized, the real result of the April 19 election will be known and everyone will have no choice but to accept the outcome. For now, this is not happening because General Buhari has promised not to waste his time going to court. The question is, what next?

Lagosboy:

I find this very interesting from El Rufai and i am patiently awaiting to see if Ribadu works with GEJ or ACN nominates people into GEJs cabinet.

On the other hand, i think this article confirms that El Rufai is getting ready to assume in the political face of CPC in the north under the leadership of the Peoples General. While I am aware El Rufai does not share the same incorruptible quality of Buhari and only very few people do. I will support him and if i have the opportunity work with him. I find him as a very intelligent dude and highly intellectual. He was man enough to admit his mistakes under OBJ and wrote to the whole world before he joined the Buhari cause.

If Sanusi joins CPC as well  then we might have a very interesting 2015 from the northern side. These two guys can push all the expired corrup politiicians in the north to retirement. Having said this, saturday gunernatorial elections will go along way to determine how CPC will blossom in the next 4 years.

It is also evident that the ACN and ANPP were in some kind of covert alliance with the PDP so it is likely that their presidential candidates and key officers will be offered cabinet positions in the Jonathan administration, thus leaving CPC as the last opposition party standing. This is an opportunity for the party to build its organization nationally and govern the handful of states it is likely to win, competently.

Gbawe:

Lagosboy, I always say emotions becloud your undoubted intelligence and again , I think , you confirm this. Once you support people you can never see wrong in what they do . That is tragic . El-Rufai is wrong to say what he has said regarding the ANPP and ACN . It is inflammatory , premature and , at best, incendiary conjecture unneeded at this stage . Mature politicians , who will be effective , do not talk like this i.e pugnaciously . They do not make serious allegation against others they cannot prove . I told you folks Bakare was wrong with his stance of fighting everyone to a standstill and proclaiming his camp as holier than everyone else,s . Sadly, El-Rufai is showing himself to be similar to Bakare and you BB fans are showing that you never learn !!!!!! El-Rufai will be 'dead on arrival' unless he learns to be pragmatic in talk and outlook.


Even if he knows things , it is better he understand what to go public with and what to remain silent on. Certain info are best not put in the public domain if they will gain you unnecessary hostility and isolation . You saw how the Nation voted . You saw the North-South divide . You think , if strategizing for 2015 , El-Rufai is wise contributing to that chasm ? Let el-Rufai make himself a Northern Champion. The CPC will lose the Presidential elections ten times if they don't learn how to play the game in realising that you must make concessions , and not enemies, to gain what you want by reaching out to those who are important. I dont back GEJ but you will remember I praised him , for political savvy, with how he reached out to Tinubu after the legislative elections. Those are the type of pragmatic , yet legal,'Horse-trading' that win elections for those who remember that "there are no permanent enemies in politics, only permanent interests" .  

The CPC , if they want to win at the highest level, should begin desisting from promoting into top positions Politicians who are long on ideology yet short of pragmatic awareness on how to play the game of politics . We saw how Bakare made one gaff after the other to the extent that many had already gone off him when a final effort was made to rally an alliance . Lets hope El-Rufai, unlike Bakare, will learn how to 'play the game' instead of making himself irrelevant like Bakare, Fawehinmi et al . I.e decent men who are way too emotional and inflexible to ever attain the positions to make the difference they want. That has always been the failings of Nigeria . Let us hope the newer generation of good guys can learn to play the game and win . You praised El-Rufai for "wisdom" . I don't see him as wise at all and his rant against the ACN and ANPP confirms it with how it will be construed , by many, as the desperate utterance of a man who has not gotten what he wants. If El-Rufai is politically sensible he will realise that the guber elections are still to come . 'Goodwill' still matter for those elections . Incendiary talk can wait.

-- Ume Ezeoke (Speaker of the House from 1979-83, current Chair of the ANPP - considered a PDP mole within the ANPP, negotiated ANPP inclusion in Government of National Unity)

mbulela:

Gbawe ati Lagosboy,
you guys have transferred our discourse here?
El-Rufai is an extremely intelligent man but he needs to tone down his hot headedness.
That ANPP/ACN comment was too simplistic, childish and unexpected of a political figure.
Why will GEJ cut a deal with ANPP?
I know he is a inept and a bit dull but not that dull.Is he?
What will ANPP offer him?

mbulela:

Gbawe ati Lagosboy,
you guys have transferred our discourse here?
El-Rufai is an extremely intelligent man but he needs to tone down his hot headedness.
That ANPP/ACN comment was too simplistic, childish and unexpected of a political figure.
Why will GEJ cut a deal with ANPP?
I know he is a inept and a bit dull but not that dull.Is he?
What will ANPP offer him?

Lagosboy:

Gbawe, i will always say there is nothing emotional here , regarding me not seeing wrong in what they do is not true. You defended Ribadu on some issues when it was as clear as daylight Ribadu was wrong and i have no issue with that in the least and that is what we call partisan politics. You defend ACN on many issues which is clear they are on the wrong and there is nothing wrong with it because i understand this is partisan politics.

Gbenge 77:

Some of the protesters reportedly accused  accused Shekarau of betraying them.They were of the opinion that he split the northern votes by choosing not to align with Buhari.

mbulela:

consensus candidacy.

Gbawe:

Thank you my brother !!!! El Rufai is simply sounding like a man who has let frustration cloud his reasoning.

jmaine:

So you felt Shekarau was morally wrong not to support Buhari candidacy because he chose to fight for the political relevance of the ANPP in the north . .it clearly shows that team Buhari did not make their political deductions well and they failed woefully in not shifting grounds in the alliance talk the same way ACN and Ribadu gladly did . . . They were too engrossed with the Northern numbers forgetting the fact the the PDP grassroots machinery in all corners of the North can't be extinguished without a struggle . . Politics is a give and take, team BB only wanted to take without giving and that was what alienated them in their quest . . .an Alliance would have have given GEJ a good run . . .but ego and selfish interest made sure such alliance talk was made a mirage once again and with Buhari dogged stance always the culprit . . .

ekt_bear:

Well, from Wikileaks, we know that the ANPP is heavily infested by PDP moles, at the very least. Perhaps he is correct about the ACN allying with the PDP as well.

I like this voter turnout table: http://www.saharareporters.com/sites/default/files/uploads/ElRufaiTable.jpg

Raises a lot of questions.

agabaI23:

tOnly he turn in Imo and Abia will be termed high compared to other areas.
GEJ's wife is from Abia and that is understandable.
Abia was part of Imo and share boundaries with South-South. So if we have high turn outs there, no need to raise eyebrows.

The turn out in other SE states were only average and can be described as low.

In the South west, one could attribute the low turn out to apathy since most of them lean towards ACN and many thought that their candidate had no chance.

The turn out in the North would have been more than it was if there were people left in the house. Inflated voters register could not help them this time around. Voting for Buhari was a religious duty and noone would have been left behind.

If you ask me, turn out in the North was 100%

Lagosboy:

GEJs wife is from Rivers state not Abia

Lagosboy:

One thing we all ignore is the money factor in Nigerian politics. Buhari and the folks round huim did their best and deserve praises for that. Spending maybe 1% of the reported 200 billion naira GEJ spent and gaining 34% of the votes is not childs meal. ACN most probably even spent more than CPC and could only gain 5% of the votes.

This is putting aside all the rigging.

However there is room to make a million changes, we learn everyday and hopefully the mistakes of the past will be learnt and corrected for the success of the future.

vigasimple:

Northern 'BORN TO RULE' people. Is Bhuari better than GEJ, what about people like Pat Utomi that the system will not allow to lead.

The fact that people like Ribadu, El- Rufai, Lamido Sanusi and few other good Northerners are available does not stop the fact that there are 100 of southerners for one of them that are good in the North.

If election is by merit and competence(other than Region and Religion), then the North will never rule this country.

agabaI23:

I think you are right. I was told by at least 2 friend's from Abia that she is from Abia. The last person was gloating that she will be the second first lady to come from Abia after Aguironsi's wife. Thanks for the correction anyway.Will you work with what is on ground or wait for another 4 years before you begin? If you have love for Nigeria, you will put your sentiment apart and help the country out of wood. It does not have to go your way before you can be part of it otherwise I will doubt your patriotism.

mbulela:



I am more worried by this portion of the article.
This is truly worrying.
Is this rentier state the FRESH AIR we were promised?

mbulela:

like this one we had last week, abi?

Lagosboy:



Who would not be frustrated seeing [b]we have to endure another 4 years of a clueless president who has spent 200 billion dollars and nothing to show for it. [/b]In fact it is more than frustration, anyone that has love for Nigeria wiould be frustrated. This is no excuse for him though !

PIB: Protesters call for resignation of Ekweremadu
On March 10, 2011 · · In News

BY INALEGWU SHAIBU
ABUJA – A coalition of civil society for PIB campaign yesterday called on Deputy Senate President, Senator Ike Ekweremadu, to resign for calling those protesting the delay in the passage of Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB, charlatans.

Coordinator of the group, Rev. David Ugolor, who spoke to newsmen yesterday, said it was shameful and disgraceful for the deputy senate president to call peaceful protesters who are working for the growth of Nigeria charlatans.

He said: “For the deputy senate president to call civil society groups that came here on Monday to protest why the PIB has not been passed since the Joint Committee on PIB submitted its report to the Senate, without any violence as charlatans is very disgraceful.

“Sen Ekeremadu is not the type of leader we need in this country. The deputy senate president should, therefore, resign for making such statement.

“Do they want what happened in Niger Delta before to happen again? Can Sen Ekweremadu refer to ex-militant as charlatans? A man of his calibre should not call protesters charlatans.

Rev. Ugolor noted that the deputy senate president should have taken advantage of his office to make history by passing the bill, instead of involving in frivolities and name calling.

According to him, “with that comment, do you think somebody like Sen Ekweremadu should be in that position?

“He had the opportunity of making history with the privilege of chairing the Senate in the absence of the Senate President and all he could do was to call peaceful protesters charlatans, we resist any effort to frustrate the passage of the bill because its passage will benefit Nigerians.”

The group also demanded an apology from the deputy senate president, insisting that it was impolite for a Senator of Ekweremadu’s status to ascribe such abusive word to Nigerians who are seeking the benefits of the larger society through peaceful protests.

Rev. Ugolor added that the civil societies is committed to better Nigeria, stressing that no amount of verbal harassment will deter them from mounting protest to ensure that the PIB is passed into law.