Dear compatriots:

1.After a false and aborted start on April 2,two sets of elections have now come and gone in Nigeria:April 9(National assembly elections) and April 16(Presidential Elections).The third round is (the Gubernatorial Elections and State assembly elections along with some national assembly elections) ,postponed from April 9) will be held on Tuesday,April 26.

2.I have provided in the appendix,several summary tables and a map of the two elections so far.

3.I want to be categorical in stating that I believe that,so far,the 2011 elections have been better than 1999,2003 and 2007 but there are still some slips between the cup and the lip,betweeen ACCREDITATION,VOTING,COUNTING,PASTING,COLLATION AND ANNOUNCEMENT.  Read on here
www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/mobolaji-aluko/on-the-matter-of-the-2011-presidential-election-in-nigeria.html

Dear Compatriots:
1. After a false and aborted start on April 2, two sets of elections have now come and  gone in Nigeria:  April 9 (National Assembly elections) and April 16 (Presidential elections).  The third round (the Gubernatorial and state assembly elections, along with some national assembly elections postponed from April 9)  will be held on Tuesday April 26.

2.  I have provided in the Appendix several summary tables and a map of the two elections so far.

3. I want to be categorical in stating that I believe strongly that so far, 2011 Elections have been better than 1999, 2003 and 2007, but there are still some slips between the cup and the lip between registration, accreditation, voting, counting, pasting, collation and announcement.

For example, with respect to the new (and verily expensive) voter registration that was embarked upon, it is true that country-wide there could have, must have been multiple registrations, and so in general registration numbers may be inflated.  I was, for example,  alarmed when between the provisional number and the final number, the number of registered voters in Niger State suddenly went from 721,478 to 2,175,421.   But the Modified Open-Secret Ballot System (MOBS) - as in June 12, 1993 -  that Jega sprung on us all made it rather difficult for people to go from polling booth to polling booth to vote due to double registration, since you had to STAY to accredit first, and then return at a set time to vote.

Therefore, on the whole, to rig in these elections, you have to be more sophisticated that in previous times.

But even then, rigging is possible.  For example, I understand that a different rigging method was introduced this time in some polling units in at least one of the states - it was phoned in to me.  That is -  multiple registration and voting AT THE SAME polling unit. This is how it worked:   Suppose there were 300 registered voters in a PU, and only 100 came to be accredited.  Then through connivance with electoral officers and intimidation of those who would protest, some of those 100 would be allowed to stay and re-accredit in place of those 200 that did not come.  Then they will also be allowed to re-vote - twice, sometimes three times.



However,  in general kudos to INEC Chairman Prof. Jega, and to President Goodluck Jonathan who appointed him. So far, we seemed to have cleaned up in major fashion the first five steps, but it seems that we still need to clean up the last two steps to prevent the possibility or actualities of what has now been called "air rigging", which can very easily be proved if the complainants insist.  That is MAJOR progress that we can (or should be able to) live with.

Hopefully, 2015 will be even much better, or even before then, April 26, 2011!

4.  Incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan has been declared winner and presented his certificate by INEC Chairman Prof. Jega.  The only hope for Buhari to have won - or even to force a run-off - was  heavy turn-out and many wins in the South-Western states, whether there was an alliance or not;  he was already heavily favored in much of the North and not at all in the SS and SE.  Without the alliance though, and as the numbers from various polling units (where there were absolutely no concerns about rigging) started to come in early last Saturday in the SW showing wins for Jonathan, all hope for him was lost by 6 pm Nigerian time on that day.

3.  The South-South/SouthEast (SS/SE) conundrum on presidential election results is not just about percentage of voters opting for Jonathan in those states per se, but voter turnout on a state-by-state basis.  They were unusually high (67% in those two regions), and as high as 86% in Bayelsa. (The Bayelsa figure was 107% of the initial provisional number).

Let me give  a number of examples, starting with  Imo State.  On April 16, it recorded 1,409,850 voters out of 1,687,293 registered voters in this presidential election,  for a voter turn-out of 83.6%, right?     However, in the April 9 election to the Senate of that same state, the total votes were as follows (taking them from an INEC table):

- Imo East:  228,274 voters (won by Chris Anyanwu of APGA, with 84,342 votes)

- Imo West: 212,957 voters (won by Hope Uzodinma of PDP, with 85,042 votes)

- Imo North: 114,244 voters (won by Ambassador Nwagwu of PDP, with 60,449 votes

---------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 555,475 votes

---------------------------------------------

That means that in one week, the number of people who came to the polls in Imo for the National Assembly elections almost tripled (from 32.9% voter turnout) for the Presidential elections?

Now that may however be a reflection of the high anxiety over the fact of the news of registration numbers that gave such overwhelming advantage to the SW and NW.  , but I will be hard-pressed to go along COMPLETELY with that fact.  It turned out that  SW voter turnout was abysmal (32%) while NW show was just above 50% (actually 54.5%).


Next, let us look at Lagos State:  1,945,044 voters in the presidential elections, out of 6,108,069 registered voters for a 31.8% voter turn out.

But on April 9 we had (again using INEC figures):

- Lagos Central: 301,570 voters  (won by ACN's Remi Tinubu 202,506)

- Lagos East: 320,372 total voters (won ACN's Gbenga Ashafa 222,439)

- Lagos West: 812,924 total voters (won by ACN's Ganiyu Solomon 503,786)

-------------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 1,434,866 total voters

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This amounted to a 23.9% voter turn-out - meaning that the presidential turnout step-up by less than 10% was quite believable.

Finally, I looked at Katsina, which on April 16 had 52.5% turn out with 1,639,532 voters out of 3,126,898 registered. On April 9 for Katsina we had:

- Katsina North (395,693 voters) (won by Audu Yandoma of CPC 315,324 votes)

- Katsina South (546,549 voters) (won by Abu Ibrahim of CPC 324,652 votes)

- Katsina Central (430,886 voters) (won by Ahmed Store of CPC 217,154 votes)

-------------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 1,373,128 voters

for a voter turnout of 43.9%, again for an increase of less than 10% going up to the presidential race.

By the way, the same analysis  done COUNTRY-wide (including in the North) to compare April 9 to April 16 will be found in Table 4 below.   I just wanted to use that these examples to indicate some discrepant suspicion, that is all, but there could be good explanations for them for the delays - bad roads, delayed materials - some lame.

Please understand that I do not doubt the % of votes given to Jonathan in the SE and SS, given the almost complete lack of competition in those areas by Buhari and Ribadu. With an incumbent "Easterner", a like-able Otuoke son with an Ogbia-Ijaw name like Ebele (that can be confused with Ebel(r)echukwu) and a nickname Azikiwe being the man to vote for, he was a shoo-in.   But what can be jiggled is the TOTAL turnout, which an Excel spreadsheet can easily be used to work to the answer:  just hold the percentages fixed, but juggle the total voters turnout figure to get a pre-determined national outcome - and by the way, just in case rigging is going on elsewhere too, where full advantage is being taken of the large differential registration of the NW and SW!

4.  There is also the perception and the reality.  Honestly, I would have loved on Election Day for results to be pouring in from all parts of the country on a random basis - this one from a SE state, then that one from NW state, then from a SW state, a couple from SS, then NE, etc.   I just craved no ill-perceptions in these presidential elections.    But for virtually all of the day, nothing was received from the SS and the SE, as if some reports were being held back to see what to do later.  That may not have been the case - but it sure looked like it.  We should watch out for that next time - both in local and national elections.

5.  It is doubtful if CPC and ACN party agents were in 10% of the polling units in the SS and SE.  However, that a party's polling agent is not at a polling unit does not mean it loses its right not to be cheated.  Just thought that I should throw that in.  We should not condone the notion of property thievery simply because the owner is not around.

6.  No electoral democracy is perfect - and ours needs serious improvement.  However, we must eschew  violence, and rather use the courts carefully to settle our grievances.  But before then, we must put honest men (like Jega) and women (yet to be fully discovered, not like those in those videos of thumb-printings!) in positions that have to do with the electoral process;  deploy technology appropriately and ensure that political parties and citizens protect their votes all the way,

7.  In conclusion, "Congratulations!" to President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of Nigeria, worthy son of Otuoke village, in Ogbia-land of the Ijaw people in the Niger-Delta.

Best wishes always.



And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

Turning in slowly,

Towards Otuoke

Quite an unbiased analysis.

Prof Aluko has noticed. Ambassador Campbell noticed. El Rufai has noticed. Sahara Reporters noticed.

There is a growing crescendo of people who recognize that the election results are suspect.

Buhari and the CPC claim that they cannot be bought with a government of national unity.

So what is the end game? How does this situation resolve itself?

Next month or so will be pretty interesting.

Ok,so they intend to offer the opposition a GNU to keep its mouth shut?The crooked should be made straight,first.

them 25% up North also is a myth. People should not decieve themselves that the elections where not knowingly rigged in favour of GEJ. For if you decive yourself they will always rig and no one but PDP will get into power.

Mscheeeeww!

Nadanbata:

them 25% up North also is a myth. People should not decieve themselves that the elections where not knowingly rigged in favour of GEJ. For if you decive yourself they will always rig and no one but PDP will get into power.

Stop talking crap.

www.nairaland.com/attachments/423419_childVoter_jpga0121e13767e398d906505a90b2c5b0b

exactly, there are some state i wonder how they convienently achieved 25% especially if you follow the pattern of the previous election where pdp lost woefully all of a sudden they could muster the required 25%


Anyway as for Mr Aluko, GEJ purpose brought the loud critic back to the country, and guess what he tactfully appointed him as the VC of a new university in his home state of Bayelsa, where his MEND boys will have him in sight- a grenade from the creeks wont be far away and all his family will get is a national sorry' "it is very unfortunate"

So he better shut up or ask for redeployement cos i really dont understand why the president decide to choose a diaspora Professor for his own home state, why not choose one of the mallams or Igbo for Bayelsa and send  aluko to an undeserved state

Beaf,
President Jonathan got 46% of the underaged votes in Kaduna, 26% of it in Katsina, 16% of it in Kano

Nigerians are pretty gullible.
[size=14pt]
There's a difference between a peaceful elections and a credible one. [/size]

The INEC system was faulty. Very faulty, that we all know. It is very possible for figures to be inflated. That we all know certainly happened because this election was bound to end in a run-off. I still dont understand how Jonathan got (competitive more than 25%) votes in the North, while Buhari whooped less than 5% votes in the South East/South South.

I would certainly not be fooled once again by a corrupt government.

Since he his a Professor there is no need to add PHD to his name anymore as you can't be a Prof without PHD.
The Mods should please correct that

BetaThings:

Beaf,
President Jonathan got 46% of the underaged votes in Kaduna, 26% of it in Katsina, 16% of it in Kano

45% in Jigawa, 40% Sokoto, 40% Gombe, 40% Kebbi etc etc. Cause election was peacful, PDP has fooled everyone to think it was fair. lols.

Wtf??

Too bad his opinion and article doesn't count. In the end GEJ won by a landslide. I guess he rigged by 10 million votes? Doofus

Then again the author is a genius.
"Slowly Heading towards Otuoke"
haha.

Blazing99:

Nigerians are pretty gullible.
[size=14pt]
There's a difference between a peaceful elections and a credible one. [/size]

The INEC system was faulty. Very faulty, that we all know. It is very possible for figures to be inflated. That we all know certainly happened because this election was bound to end in a run-off. I still dont understand how Jonathan got (competitive more than 25%) votes in the North, while Buhari whooped less than 5% votes in the South East/South South.

I would certainly not be fooled once again by a corrupt government.

[b]Easy bros. We will get there sir. GEJ and JEGA have tried. Even if the Election was to be 100% free and fair, GEJ would still be declaired the winner.
At least for once, after a decade of misrule and electoral deformation, our mind-set is getting reset that election can be credible.
The so-called global model which is America itself went through a similar nightmare during the '00 Election, where the election in Florida killed Al Gore's presidential dream.
In 2009, there were reports of several ballot boxes with the name: Barack Hussein Osama in most red states. Even currently in Winscosin where some 40,000 votes was pulled out of nowhere and had Jo'Anne the Democrat, an already declared winner in the state looking stunned, conceding to the opposition.
This baby steps become giant steps; and besides, Prof Aluko has a way of creating unnecessary controversies. He's the guy who wants every Nigerian economic student to keep mimming his silly definitation of the subject. For now, we should celebrate this great achievement and move on.[/b]

The reality is that Buhari's CPC rigged in their own way in the states and areas where their supporteres dominate just as PDP did in their own dominant areas. It is certain that Jonathan would still have won with over 50% of total votes and 25% in more than 24 states and the FCT even without the work of some over-zealous governors and PDP chieftains in the SS & SE.
Whatever the case, Buhari's tacit endorsement of the cold blooded killiing of innocent southerners is awful, to say the least. He was offered the opportunity to call his troop of almajiris and under-aged voters to order on AlJazeera on Sunday evening but he kept singing about the elections been fraudulent     
Obviously the young army officer who killed his fellow Igbo officers and men in the July 1966 counter-coup as reported on page 32 of:

http://www.omoigui.com/files/military_counterrebellion_july_1966.pdf

has not been able to overcome his hatred for non-hausa/fulanis Nigerians.

Buhari is simply a heartless and selfish person despite his pretentions to the contrary- tears or no tears
Thank God he will never be our president anymore.
Btw, if the migrant from Niger Republic knew he was going to the court to appeal why did he subtly fuel and encourage the youths [that his military government failed to educate by cancelling the Universal Primary Education (UPE) in 1985] to go on a killing and destruction spree.
Maybe he is looking forward to be president of a Cemetry.   

aasog1:


[b]Easy bros. We will get there sir. GEJ and JEGA have tried. Even if the Election was to be 100% free and fair, GEJ would still be declaired the winner.
At least for once, after a decade of misrule and electoral deformation, our mind-set is getting reset that election can be credible.
The so-called global model which is America itself went through a similar nightmare during the '00 Election, where the election in Florida killed Al Gore's presidential dream.
In 2009, there were reports of several ballot boxes with the name: Barack Hussein Osama in most red states. Even currently in Winscosin where some 40,000 votes was pulled out of nowhere and had Jo'Anne the Democrat, an already declared winner in the state looking stunned, conceding to the opposition.
This baby steps become giant steps; and besides, Prof Aluko has a way of creating unnecessary controversies. He's the guy who wants every Nigerian economic student to keep mimming his silly definitation of the subject. For now, we should celebrate this great achievement and move on.[/b]

I think with the waning support for GEJ in the North, he wont have had 25% in 24 states in a free and fair elections. With all due respect, I see no difference b/w the rigging in this elections and the previous. The only difference is that there wasn't violence, but the same big-time rigging was done. I am giving no credit to Jega. Why should we celebrate when another man has been short-changed and cheated of his right to contest? Lets call a spade a spade, rigging is wrong. I know it is done in the West but not as bad as here cos if it was this bad it would be a National Scandal. Expect more corruption from this government.

@ Seguno2,
Did Buhari kill ur dog or smething. cud u stop being unnecessarily sentimental with falsehood?

Thank God we still have learned Nigerians who will not allow themselves to be blinded by ethnic sentiments!
I have personally sad down to carry out similar analysis using inverse problem approach and I was left with a wild open mouth as to how wide the descipancies are bewteen the voting pattern in the NASS election and the Presidential election in SOUTH & SOUTH-EAST while my findings are a close call in other parts of the country.

Surely, I am more than convinced the Presidential elections were rigged in the SS &SE parts of Nigeria and the painful part is the CPC will not be able to prove in court beyond resonable doubt to have the elections in those regions cancelled 'cos our judiciary smells like a rotten egg!

As day by day goes - cases of election fraud are being revealed.  I am not a buhari supporter but he has a very strong case in courts - maybe to force a rerun.

A credible finger print analysis of the ballot papper will void at least 1/4 if not 1/2 of so called SE/SS votes or elsewhere

I hope getting the services of finger print analyst is being considered.

How long can one continue under the guise of  FRAUD ?


The bible says Righteousness exalts a nation  - but the otherwise is the case of Nigeria

Omo_Tier1:

Thank God we still have learned Nigerians who will not allow themselves to be blinded by ethnic sentiments!
I have personally sad down to carry out similar analysis using inverse problem approach and I was left with a wild open mouth as to how wide the descipancies are bewteen the voting pattern in the NASS election and the Presidential election in SOUTH & SOUTH-EAST while my findings are a close call in other parts of the country.

Surely, I am more than convinced the Presidential elections were rigged in the SS &SE parts of Nigeria and the painful part is the CPC will not be able to prove in court beyond resonable doubt to have the elections in those regions cancelled 'cos our judiciary smells like a rotten egg!

I suspect to deal with a compromised judiciary - one will need evidence that is beyond reasonable doubt - " Is it possible that Many in the SS and SE region all have similar finger prints "

@beaf

Yes, those child voters are the one who got the Goodluck biscuits, and that was how they were lured out to vote. A friend in the North said most of the underaged kids mostly voted in PDP strong areas. And dont make it sound as if GEJ wasnt the REALLY desperate candidate here. If he had lost, im sure the whole of Nigeria would still be burning courtsey of his militants folks.

@poster: valid points raised here. the truth is that, why would a region reported of mass rigging and electoral fraud during the NASS election be left unprobed? Most of the election in Bayelsa and Delta are been currently cancelled. And theres serious reports of rigging sprees all over the SS and SE. Shame I come from that side .

Blazing99:


@ Seguno2,
Did Buhari kill your dog or smething. cud u stop being unnecessarily sentimental with falsehood?

You definitely realise that Buhari is all about killing anytime he does not have his way whether he is doing it himself as in the counter-coup of 1966 or having almajiris do it on his behalf screaming "death to unbelievers". Btw, I understand that unbelievers are labelled "dogs" by Buhari and his co-travellers. Is that true ?
Please list the falsehoods you identified in my post so I can respond comprehensively. I hope you will not tarry to do so.

oyewolejos:

Since he his a Professor there is no need to add PHD to his name anymore as you can't be a Prof without PHD.
The Mods should please correct that

Actually, you can be a Prof without a PhD. Wole Soyinka and Chinua Achebe are examples. There are others e.gs too.

But dont mind the fake professor Aluko. He is a ''Nigerian Affairs'' professor who left his calling -Chemical Engineering -for ''Dawodu Engineering''. Someone who has not published any scientific article in more than a decade calls himself a prof. Only in Howard University will that happen. And this is the same person Jonathan recently appointed a VC to his Otuoke University? Let ND militants read this, they will decide what to do with him at Otuoke. If he feels this way, why accept an appointment from the same person? Hypocrites, as usual.

Let PDP repeat what it did last Saturday on 26th April and every corners and crannies of this country will witness anarchy Unprecedented in the electoral history of this nation. Look out for the states in SS and SE where opposition is very strong. They together knew how GEJ was rigged into power, I think no party will want to be outsmarted come Tuesday.

seguno2:

You definitely realise that Buhari is all about killing anytime he does not have his way whether he is doing it himself as in the counter-coup of 1966 or having almajiris do it on his behalf screaming "death to unbelievers". Btw, I understand that unbelievers are labelled "dogs" by Buhari and his co-travellers. Is that true ?
Please list the falsehoods you identified in my post so I can respond comprehensively. I hope you will not tarry to do so.

Untill u got proof that an ex-general would stoop so low to let almagiris fight for him, or that he labelled non-muslims dogs, pls shut the helll up.

lionness:

@beaf

Yes, those child voters are the one who got the Goodluck biscuits, and that was how they were lured out to vote. A friend in the North said most of the underaged kids mostly voted in PDP strong areas. And dont make it sound as if GEJ wasnt the REALLY desperate candidate here. If he had lost, im sure the whole of Nigeria would still be burning courtsey of his militants folks.

@poster: valid points raised here. the truth is that, why would a region reported of mass rigging and electoral fraud during the NASS election be left unprobed? Most of the election in Bayelsa and Delta are been currently cancelled. And theres serious reports of rigging sprees all over the SS and SE. Shame I come from that side .

Chris PurefoyCNN: There were rigging both sides. Is it not a case of the kettle calling the pot black? We saw under age voters voting you.
Buhar[/b]i: for me?
[b]Chris: Yes; Buhari: Are you sure they voted for me? Chris: Yes; Buhari: let the court prove it then.

Source: CNN international desk

[size=8pt][size=8pt][size=8pt]Jega is on air, NTA.[/size][/size][/size]
explaining how the excel form works laying to rest the outrageous allegation of 40% reduction of votes raised by CPC.

ktjohnpaul:

[size=8pt][size=8pt][size=8pt]Jega is on air, NTA.[/size][/size][/size]
explaining how the excel form works laying to rest the outrageous allegation of 40% reduction of votes raised by CPC.

Watching now! Illiteracy too bad!

I also observed on saturday that no result was coming in from SS and SE while we were getting results from other parts of the country. Someone jokingly said on nairaland "CPC has voted, PDP will start voting by 12 midnight"