First of all, let me begin by stating how Nigeria's problems began before it escalated. Everything is traceable to the civil war, how it was fought, and the sociopolitical paradigm shift that followed. While everyother part of Nigeria (with massive foreign assistance) fought the Igbos in the Biafra/Nigeria war, the Fulanis saw it as an opportunity to seize total control of Nigeria and they set to work to achieve that. Using the succeeding military regimes, they truncated the true federalism we were practicing whereby each region controlled its resources and destiny while paying royalties to the central government, and replaced them with smaller states. Furthermore, every resources was handed over to the federal government which they technically controlled. Immediately this happened, the indigenous people lost interest in hardwork since everything will still go to the Fulani controlled center who in turn shares to any part based on how it seems fit. As was expected, the core North got a lion share through a manipulation that gave them lots of local governments, states, fake/bloated population as well as use of empty landmass. These was the beginning of the locust years that saw a criminal take over of all government ministries, parastatels and agencies, and to make it more effective, they hurriedly moved our capital to Abuja.......

With the capital now in Abuja, it became a lot easier for them to continue their take over of every sector of Nigeria. The army, police, ministries, agencies etc. came under their control. Since they lacked the educational qualification and brains relative to the Southerners, they decided to destroy merit based system and replaced it quota system in paper but fulani system in practice. Oil blocks were allocated to majorly to themselves and a few other cabals in the North. Strategic positions in the Nigerian Ports Authority, Customs and NNPC were 100% in their control. However, in their cunning nature, they will throw a few crumbs to the Yorubas and a few others in the South and Middle belt but while ensuring that Igbos got nothing. This was deliberate to make others remain grateful for the crumbs they got when they consider that after all, Igbos got nothing.

They effectively entrenched a rent seeking economy as against the productive economy we ran in the 1950's and 60's that made the East and West to be among the fastest growing economies in the world. Ghana that people now like to shame Nigeria with, wasn't better than Eastern or Western region and neither was any part of West Africa!

One after the other, our institutions began to collapse in quick succession due to the mediocrity that has become entrenched all over the country. Nigeria's existence was at this level until 1999 when we returned to democracy with Obasanjo as president. Remember that the rent seeking economy they entrenched whereby Peter is robbed to pay Paul, made it easy for them encourage almajiri system whereby millions of Northern children are discouraged from attending Western education. Instead they encouraged mass procreation and the assimilation of anybody from the Sahel region to become a Northerner. Many Nigeriens and Chadians became Nigerians through this means and even had more rights than real indigenous Nigerians of Southern origin. Unfortunately, for the feudal Northern elites, they were too shortsighted to understand they were laying the foundation to a very turbulent future.

With millions of those almajiri children that were denied education now adults and roaming aimlessly with neither education nor skills to be meaningfully engaged, they eventually became an endless pool for Boko Haram and other terrorist groups to draw from.....

Buhari has always been known as a religious fanatic and ethnic bigot. He showed his character when as a former head of state, he marched forcefully to the government house in Ibadan where he accused a state governor of killing his people. Then later on, he granted interviews and press releases on why he would support Sharia to be implemented across Nigeria. Despite all these, some desperate selfishmen connived and foisted him on Nigerians. Buhari's emergence coincided with the rise of terrorism in the Sahel region of Africa. Being someone who is fanatical in his religious beliefs, these terror groups saw Nigeria as a fertile ground. With oil revenue coming from the South and loans from China, there was enough money to lavish on them in the guise of paying ransom for the release of kidnapped people. This was the turn around moment for all terrorists. [b]Very cheap and easily assesible arms both from Libya and those seized from NA, easy ransom money, covert support by locals even government, and endless pool of recruits. [/b]When you factor the part in bold then you will understand that this is going to be a war without end.

Now, as the number of terrorist groups continue to grow exponentially in the North, based on the factors highlighted above, Nigeria's economy on the other hand is on a free fall. The following are now bound to happen in the coming months:

1. Aso rock, Senate, and indeed all significant government establishment in Abuja is going to become mini barracks. There would be soldiers stationed everywhere in these places that it will all look like war zones.

2. Nigerian politicians and indeed all rich men in the North would start moving their families to Lagos and Ghana in the interim. Remember, they earlier moved them to Abuja until now that the city no longer feels secured. However, with time, they would eventually move their families abroad, including Southern politicians and rich men. The fate of Abuja is symbolic to Nigeria for obvious reasons, the moment Abuja is infilterated, it would signal a decisive moment to the terrorists and a fatal blow to the rest of Nigeria.

3. Yorubas will eventually form another defacto security group outside government control. I can bet that they're already on it behind the scenes. They may make use of OPC by arming them to be like ESN. The Igbos will also close ranks and give massive support to ESN. The situation will be dire in the Middle belt because they are fragmented. However, the SS are quite lucky because they are sandwiched by two major ethnic groups capable of forming a buffer for them.

4. Southerners living in the North will start returning en mass but Northerners may not be willing to return en mass considering how volatile the North was already. This is also partly the reason why Southerners living in the North won't be harmed. But they will also return all the same regardless because of how unsafe the region would have become.

5. International diplomats and indeed foreigners from Western nations and other countries will start airlifting their people from Nigeria.

6. Politicians and rich Nigerians who had earlier moved their families abroad will join the next available flights leaving Nigeria.

7. The NA due to ethno-religeous tensions all over the country will witness lots of withdrawals and may eventually collapse. During this time too or during stage 5, there may be a military take over in a desperate attempts to curtail the crises but it will be too little, too late.

8. Warlords will gradually emerge and they will fight both among themselves, the bandits, jihardists and whatever would be left of the central government.

So, if you're still thinking about 2023, wake up and smell the coffee!!