PhysicsMHD:


The point is that PDP needs to be exposed as a Northern party, not a party of unity.

If all of the south leaves PDP, there's

1) a chance of a southern alliance (which could lead to meritocratic practices in many spheres of life being adhered to, if that alliance was to win

2) a chance of the completely northern PDP weakening and fracturing along middle belt vs. core north lines, and the north being permanently weakened, or the middle belt might choose to align with one or all of the southern groups

3) a chance that if the southern alliance or the non-PDP parties are unable to beat the northern PDP, then the issue of the bogus northern population figures may be looked into and pressed by the southern groups. If this issue isn't rectified, perhaps it could be a good pretext for changing the power structure of the country to a more federal one, with more autonomy for different areas

Wonderful analysis!!!

Obiagu1:

It's the same thing you'll not still understand. As the President, he became the leader of the party and with his hatred of the Igbo, he schemed and schemed to get us out of the main stream but we remained with PDP hoping for a change. Now that OBJ is no longer the President, he still influences PDP and GEJ. Was he not the person that banged his fist on the table while campaigning for the SW to retain the position of the Speaker? Without him, who is powerful enough in the SW to influence the PDP?

OBJ is the most powerful person in PDP, take it or leave it. His power can only be reduced if he has a problem with GEJ but being a clever man, he will avoid that and GEJ will always respect him and do his wish.

Again, A VERY VERY TERRIBLE MENTALITY

When he was in Aso Rock OBJ was so good to the Igbo people they started claiming that he was Igbo. He stuffed his cabinet with Igbo people and their influence was far and wide. Now you write the bolded below. I think GEJ himself needs to watch his back if he is dealing with people like Obiagu1.

Obiagu1:

It's the same thing you'll not still understand. [size=14pt]As the President, he became the leader of the party and with his hatred of the Igbo[/size], he schemed and schemed to get us out of the main stream but we remained with PDP hoping for a change. Now that OBJ is no longer the President, he still influences PDP and GEJ. Was he not the person that banged his fist on the table while campaigning for the SW to retain the position of the Speaker? Without him, who is powerful enough in the SW to influence the PDP?

OBJ is the most powerful person in PDP, take it or leave it. His power can only be reduced if he has a problem with GEJ but being a clever man, he will avoid that and GEJ will always respect him and do his wish.

ekt_bear:

Do they lose their overwhelming majority even if all of the SE leave for APGA? No, they do not.
LMAO. If my papa becomes president, I'm not leaving his party for anyone  

No chance of the SS leaving PDP while GEJ remains in office

So if the SE leaves PDP and the SS stays with PDP, what happens now?

If GEJ is smart and wants to continue in 2015, he'd try to satisfy the North and the SW. The MB/NC's decisions are not really consistent, they go with the flow.

ekt_bear:

Do they lose their overwhelming majority even if all of the SE leave for APGA? No, they do not.

Yes they do. Its quite clear that you've forgotten how many seats the opposition got. It's a lot. The SE leaving to join APGA would devastate PDP. Leave your sentiment alone, because you're not making sense with it.

ekt_bear:

LMAO. If my papa becomes president, I'm not leaving his party for anyone  

No chance of the SS leaving PDP while GEJ remains in office

Watch 2015 CAREFULLY!!!
 PDP is just a name to keep power at the CENTER so OIL money can be flowing freely.PDP is a Northern party for the Northern agenda not the Southern agenda. The sooner Southerners get that, the better.I see GEJ doing nothing about it though.

Obiagu1:

It's the same thing you'll not still understand. As the President, he became the leader of the party and with his hatred of the Igbo, he schemed and schemed to get us out of the main stream but we remained with PDP hoping for a change. Now that OBJ is no longer the President, he still influences PDP and GEJ. Was he not the person that banged his fist on the table while campaigning for the SW to retain the position of the Speaker? Without him, who is powerful enough in the SW to influence the PDP?

OBJ is the most powerful person in PDP, take it or leave it. His power can only be reduced if he has a problem with GEJ but being a clever man, he will avoid that and GEJ will always respect him and do his wish.

So OBJ hates Ndigbo, yet he allowed a prominent son of Ndigbo to be PDP chairman, brought Okonjo from IMF and backed her up tremendously, Supported Dora even when he need not do that, had a good relationship with his Igbo SGF, allowed Andy Uba et al to feed fat on what they did not work hard for.

I think you are deluded, crazy and possibly schizophrenic

I am really concerned for you. You dont seem to be making any sense.

SE members of the national assembly should be considering decamping and joining APGA if this plays out as is.
They have absolutely nothing to gain by remaining in PDP.

This is part of why I lamented that Akunyili lost in her contest with Ngige; but I hope that Ngige would not keep quiet at the senate.

Frankly, we should ensure that all political options are on the table as the negotiation continues. And we should be ready for an all opposition alliance against the PDP at the national assembly and in subsequent elections.

At the least they are worried about the SS/SE controlling the Presidency and Speakership - effectively controlling the government at the center.

David Mark would be the only real Northerner with some political power, since the VP serves at the pleasure of the President according the the constitution - VP actually has less power than the SGF as long as the President remains capable of functioning.

So, at least the SW would dilute the power at the Center with the speaker position.  

Ileke-IdI:

No prob, Ghanaian men still rox

Oh I see.

So if the North backs SW as the Speaker, who wins? Is the final decision based on who supports who?

PhysicsMHD:

The point is that PDP needs to be exposed as a Northern party, not a party of unity.

Why do you say that the PDP is a Northern party? What is your basis for saying this? OBJ and various other scoundrels distributed across the country seem to be the prime movers.

If all of the south leaves PDP, there's

1) a chance of a southern alliance (which could lead to meritocratic practices in many spheres of life being adhered to, if that alliance was to win

Outnumbered by the 3 northern zones

2) a chance of the completely northern PDP weakening and fracturing along middle belt vs. core north lines, and the north being permanently weakened, or the middle belt might choose to align with one or all of the southern groups

3) a chance that if the southern alliance or the non-PDP parties are unable to beat the northern PDP, then the issue of the bogus northern population figures may be looked into and pressed by the southern groups. If this issue isn't rectified, perhaps it could be a good pretext for changing the power structure of the country to a more federal one, with more autonomy for different areas

If that happens, then effectively you've replicated the PDP, but with the northern elements kicked out and weakened. It seems to me that if your goal is to weaken the Northern elements, there are probably better ways of doing it, no?

zstranger:

So OBJ hates Ndigbo, yet he allowed a prominent son of Ndigbo to be PDP chairman, brought Okonjo from IMF and backed her up tremendously, Supported Dora even when he need not do that, had a good relationship with his Igbo SGF, allowed Andu Uba et al to feed fat on what they did not work hard for.

I think you are deluded, crazy and possibly schizophrenic

I am really concerned for you. You dont seem to be making any sense.

OBJ's first term was a mess, he survived impeachment and almost lost out in the primary. After that experience, he throw away bigotry and embraced the Igbo to save his Presidency from going into oblivion. When they helped him make name in his presidency, he dumped them.

This is the story.

The problem is that most of you are kids and didn't follow the process from 1998 and see how things went. You just read up some stuff on the internet and form an opinion.

koruji:

At the least they are worried about the SS/SE controlling the Presidency and Speakership - effectively controlling the government at the center.

David Mark would be the only real Northerner with some political power, since the VP serves at the pleasure of the President according the the constitution - VP actually has less power than the SGF as long as the President remains capable of functioning.

So, at least the SW would dilute the power at the Center with the speaker position.  

hmmm interesting.

You forgot to answer this question tho : Will the final decision be based on who supports who? Will the North supporting SW as senate president solidify the position to SW'ners?

Chyz*:

Yes they do. Its quite clear that you've forgotten how many seats the opposition got. It's a lot. The SE leaving to join APGA would devastate PDP. Leave your sentiment alone, because you're not making sense with it.

Looks like you are correct:

For the House of Representatives, of the total two hundred and thirty four seats declared, one hundred of the seats went to the PDP. Evidently the new chief opposition party, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) carted home forty seven of the declared seats. Other parties shared sixty-four seats.

The scenario is not different with the elections into the Senate. Of the seventy two seats declared, PDP took a large chunk of forty-five seats with the ACN coming a distant second with thirteen seats. Other parties split a dismal sixteen seats. Elections into state houses of assembly show similar patterns.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201105090750.html

Not sure why I thought they had a much higher fraction of each body.

ekt_bear:

Why do you say that the PDP is a Northern party? What is your basis for saying this? OBJ and various other scoundrels distributed across the country seem to be the prime movers.

They have a disproportionately high influence. They call too many shots. An example of this is OBJ being "elected" president because of his Northern connections, despite not being wanted in the south.

Outnumbered by the 3 northern zones

There are three southern zones. What do you mean by outnumbered? Population wise?

If that happens, then effectively you've replicated the PDP, but with the northern elements kicked out and weakened. It seems to me that if your goal is to weaken the Northern elements, there are probably better ways of doing it, no?

What do you mean by this?

I meant that the issue of fake population figures and bold faced lies like "Kano state is more populous than Lagos" could be a pretext for taking Nigeria from the system it currently practices to a system in which different areas have more autonomy. If they want to keep the population claims, let them, but the system should be set up in a way that their supposed population dominance does not affect the ability of other areas to govern themselves well.

ekt_bear:


Looks like you are correct:http://allafrica.com/stories/201105090750.html

Not sure why I thought they had a much higher fraction of each body.

CPC also collected a fairly high share in seats as well. PDP would suffer.

If all SE PDP members of the national assembly joins APGA, PDP will be finished there.

See map!  

Obiagu1:

OBJ's first term was a mess, he survived impeachment and almost lost out in the primary. After that experience, he throw away bigotry and embraced the Igbo to save his Presidency from going into oblivion. When they helped him make name in his presidency, he dumped them.
This is the story.
The problem is that most of you are kids and didn't follow the process from 1998 and see how things went. You just read up some stuff on the internet and form an opinion.

Anyhoo,

Lost out in the primary? How?  lol To Ekwueme that came a distant third and who started crying, literally, immediately after the primaries ended calling the primary " a charade.?"

Truth be told, Atiku came through to him in both primaries, first in 2003 via the PDM machinery, the most sophisticated grass root movement in the North, and secondly in 2003, when he made OBJ promise to handover to him in the presence of other northern power brokers.

At no time during both primaries did he ever need the help of Ndigbo, as there was no ranking Ndigbo in PDP then, besides Ekwueme, who was effectively marginalized by the North.

Even Atiku was more powerful, individually, than Ekwueme in those days.



Survived impeachment? Lets take it one after the other.

Are you talking about the impeachment motion engineered by Okadigbo or something else?

Onlytruth:

If all SE PDP members of the national assembly joins APGA, PDP will be finished there.

See map!  

If the SE PDP members move to APGA, PDP cannot produce the Speaker any more because they are not outright majority.

A new alliance will be formed and that alliance will produce the Speaker.

Let PDP be finished plz.

They've not done anything worthwhile for this nation. Just a gang of thieves.

Best quotes I've heard all month:

Southwesters finish NYSC to become teachers/nurses etc, while Northerners finish NYSC to work in oil companies.

A very easy quote. Very surfaced yet deep.

Yet some region, even after being left out, still voted for PDP.

PhysicsMHD:

They have a disproportionately high influence. They call too many shots. An example of this is OBJ being "elected" president because of his Northern connections, despite not being wanted in the south.

Fine, I agree, historically that has been the case. But if we are supposed to believe all these GEJ sycophants voters, those northern elements have been marginalized and excised out. "Fresh air", all that jazz.

Though in this case, I agree with them.

There are three southern zones. What do you mean by outnumbered? Population wise?

Indeed, by the fake population figures, yes.

What do you mean by this?

I thought the story being sold before was that this new PDP is a NC+SS+SE alliance. So if the North is still dominating things. . . someone really fvcked up, basically.

I meant that the issue of fake population figures and bold faced lies like "Kano state is more populous than Lagos" could be a pretext for taking Nigeria from the system it currently practices to a system in which different areas have more autonomy. If they want to keep the population claims, let them, but the system should be set up in a way that their supposed population dominance does not affect the ability of other areas to govern themselves well.

I'd like an accurate census as well (Lagos's pop is clearly underestimated, I suspect the same of Oyo), weakened central government, all that stuff too.

But to paint the current events as some Northern domination plot seems. . . weird to me. It is just some horse-trading. Doesn't seem nefarious to me.

Yes, since they would be voting and majority of the PDP members in the HA are from the north. And I guess the ACN members of the SW would vote for a SW speaker as well.

Ileke-IdI:

hmmm interesting.
You forgot to answer this question tho : Will the final decision be based on who supports who? Will the North supporting SW as senate president solidify the position to SW'ners?

Ileke-IdI:

Let PDP be finished plz.

They've not done anything worthwhile for this nation. Just a gang of thieves.

Best quotes I've heard all month:

[size=14pt]Southerners finish NYSC to become teachers/nurses etc, while Northerners finish NYSC to work in oil companies.
[/size]
A very easy quote. Very surfaced yet deep.

Yet some region, even after being left out, still voted for PDP.

Wa gba iyi!!!!

Senate, see map!

That won't be such a bad idea. There are at least three nations within this country. This unitary system is not working for us. May be if they all decamp to APGA we 'll be forced to come up with a more equitable arrangement at the center.

But knowing how many of the PDP candidates got where they are today, SE/SW/NC/NW/NE they are going nowhere. Go and see how the north went back to PDP after voting massively for CPC in the presidential elections.

Obiagu1:

If the SE PDP members move to APGA, PDP cannot produce the Speaker any more because they are not outright majority.

A new alliance will be formed and that alliance will produce the Speaker.

koruji:

That won't be such a bad idea. There are at least three nations within this country. This unitary system is not working for us. May be if they all decamp to APGA we 'll be forced to come up with a more equitable arrangement at the center.

koruji:

Yes, since they would be voting and majority of the PDP members in the HA are from the north. And I guess the ACN members of the SW would vote for a SW speaker as well.

Oh okay, so it's by vote not by the president's decision.

Then what is Onahaeze talking about? Asking for the position because of the SS/SE's magic numbers? Talking about they want nothing less? If the position is given to the SE based on the desire of Ndigbo, things will not go right from there. We'll know that there's putrid air coming in from a crack in the wall.  

If the North backs SW and SW backs themselves (duh), with OBJ's influence, there's no doubt the SW will get it. Although I dont like to count my chicks before they hatch.

But will ACN support PDP?

jason123:

Wa gba iyi!!!!

wa s'eere!

They are making all the noise because the vote really is more of a formality. They would negotiate everything behind closed doors then everyone goes out and "vote" as already decided - hence the "threats".

Yes, ACN members should back a PDP candidate since they certainly can't put forth their own candidate - but they can adopt one that balances the political equation, a SW PDP speaker.

Ileke-IdI:

Oh okay, so it's by vote not by the president's decision.

Then what is Onahaeze talking about? Asking for the position because of the SS/SE's magic numbers? Talking about they want nothing less? If the position is given to the SE based on the desire of Ndigbo, things will not go right from there. We'll know that there's putrid air coming in from a crack in the wall.  

If the North backs SW and SW backs themselves (duh), with OBJ's influence, there's no doubt the SW will get it. Although I dont like to count my chicks before they hatch.

But will ACN support PDP?

PhysicsMHD:


The point is that PDP needs to be exposed as a Northern party, not a party of unity.

If all of the south leaves PDP, there's

1) a chance of a southern alliance (which could lead to meritocratic practices in many spheres of life being adhered to, if that alliance was to win)

2) a chance of the completely northern PDP weakening and fracturing along middle belt vs. core north lines, and the north being permanently weakened, or the middle belt might choose to align with one or all of the southern groups

3) a chance that if the southern alliance or the non-PDP parties are unable to beat the northern PDP, then the issue of the bogus northern population figures may be looked into and pressed by the southern groups. If this issue isn't rectified, perhaps it could be a good pretext for changing the power structure of the country to a more federal one, with more autonomy for different areas

This was the stuff we were trying to achieve with the election of April 2011, remember that election? It's like eons ago now.

Unfortunately, the Nigerian Tiger ("tribalism", religious sentiments, ethnic mistrust, and short-sightedness) was let out of its cage. It devoured us all.

You can replace PDP with Words and phrases like: Control, Central power, Pseudo federalism, the drag, the lie we tell ourselves, the wool over our eyes, the owners of Nigeria. Fake unity, Federal character magomago, Crude oil union. You won't be far off the mark.

Nigerians are not ready yet, when we are ready, it will be very obvious.

koruji:

They are making all the noise because the vote really is more of a formality. They would negotiate everything behind closed doors then everyone goes out and "vote" as already decided - hence the "threats".

Yes, ACN members should back a PDP candidate since they certainly can't put forth their own candidate - but they can adopt one that balances the political equation, a SW PDP speaker.

kewl!!

If something seems out of the ord, we'll know 4/16/2011 was a crap call and that someone don gas (iso) the fresh air.

Obiagu1:

OBJ's first term was a mess, he survived impeachment and almost lost out in the primary. After that experience, he throw away bigotry and embraced the Igbo to save his Presidency from going into oblivion. When they helped him make name in his presidency, he dumped them.

This is the story.

The problem is that most of you are kids and didn't follow the process from 1998 and see how things went. You just read up some stuff on the internet and form an opinion.

Obj is an anti-igbo,he didnt really choose those igbos that worked with him,the fact was that he had no option,those igbo men and women were the best around and he really needed good hands to save himself,notice that those igbos achievements were the best thing that happened during obj tenure,from ndukwe to dora,from soludo to okonjo and ezekwesilli,they were the best around,and the bigot didn't have a choice.

Most of the great points made and ideas suggested by some of the bright posters on this thread, are only good for academic purposes. It saddens me that you people do not understand what drives your elected leaders. What drives them are self interests and greed.  If you don't factor this in your calculations, you'll all be in for a very rude awakening.

Now, zoning pattern drawn out at the recent Obudu meeting goes thus:  President—South South; Vice President--Northwest; Senate President—North Central; Deputy Senate President--Southeast; Speaker--Southwest; Deputy Speaker--Northwest; SGF--Southeast and PDP National Chairman--Northeast.

I guarantee you that your elected leaders will troop behing this plan because it may cost them goodies if they go against the wishes of the President.  Sooner or later, even the elected officers from the SE will keep silent instead of kicking and screaming against such a move.

The tragedy of this whole thing is that Jonathan is not strong enough to resist the demands of the 'North'. How can they impose their own islamic ways of reasoning on the whole NASS. They want a 'Male Southerner'?  And he is going to acquiesce? For what?

The good thing out of the whole episode is that everyone will soon answer his father's name as far as political parties are concerned.

Ohaneze or is it Ndigbo fooled it self by alligning lock stock & barrel with PDP. When it should have been strenthening APGA as a political force. Now, the only region that gave it full and unequivocal support to GEJ (sans SS) is the one that going to be deprived? It makes me zero political sense to me.

I'm sorry, I'm from Lagos and I cannot see how they can justify giving the position once again to the SW.

The introduction of religion into the process further devides this country. And the fact that GEJ has accepted it as gospel just ossifies the opinion I have of him as a weakling whose four year in power will be marred by constant PDP in-fighting.