[/b]But as fair as I tried to be, everything else looks woeful for this government and I wonder where the miracles will come from, that the Buhari-Osinbajo regime will not be declared – officially and on the streets – as the worst government this country has ever seen. Add to the attempt to leave the fuel price at N380, with the prospects of reaching N500 or N600 once we are left to the mercy of oligarchs…[b]



Upfront I will advise this administration to steer far clear of any so-called petroleum sector ‘deregulation’, come January 2022. Sentiments are tinder-dry and I doubt if they would want another #EndSARS-scale demonstrations on their hands, or worse. I mean, it takes a lot of nerve to meet the petrol price at N97, take it first to N145, then N162, and then propose to leave it at N380 or more. The first increase was done without apologies or care, as the president was merely riding on his fabled and now demystified “Mai-Gaskiya” factor. Since the government came in 2015, what Nigerians have seen has been different. No matter what anyone says about that era, the majority of voters expressed hope in the Buhari-Osinbajo ticket, and part of that hope was that the economy would be fixed, while life will be easier for most Nigerians, in terms of improved standards of living. Alas, what Nigerians paid for has been totally different from what has been delivered. And so, through a lot of disdain, refusal to interact with the people, talk downs – such as Nigerian youths being lazy or agreeing with David Cameron, then prime minister of United Kingdom that Nigerians were fantastically corrupt, the fuel price was increased, twice, to almost double what it was pre-2015. Before EndSARS, perhaps the worst nationwide riot in recent times was in January 2012, due to the tentative increase of fuel price from N65 to N140 per litre, in the name of deregulation. The then government backed down to N97. Nigerians would later find out that a few connected smart Alecs had swindled the country of N2.53 trillion in false subsidy claims. Some, like me, needed to know that that level of fraud did happen in this country. But not much has happened to those guys. They are still among us – rehabilitated big boys and girls.

On each occasion when the petroleum price was increased, the Buhari government claimed to have deregulated. Even the Jonathan government claimed to have deregulated in 2012. It wasn’t until later (in 2018) that the issue of subsidy crept in, again. This time, it was christened ‘under-recovery’. Of course, in spite of claiming to have ‘deregulated’ the market, the national oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), remains the sole importer and as I type this, the Corporation says it has spent an excess of at least N1.6 trillion, as at November (under-recovery), in supplying just premium motor spirit (petrol) to Nigerians, in comparison to the amount it was able to get back from the people. Why? The set price of N162 is way too low, they say. So, we are back to the deregulation debate. The government has collapsed the Petroleum Equalisation Fund (PEF) and the Petroleum Product Price Regulation Agency (PPPRA) into new regulatory entities, but in reality, we haven’t seen how that market would be fully and truly deregulated, or how government hopes to manage the blowback of real deregulation – away from the usual deluded meetings they have in airconditioned boardrooms. Is whatever is left of the PPPRA in the new entity still going to exercise any price control? Why did the government retain an agency that purports to control price, yet pretend to the people that it had deregulated the price twice since 2015 and wants to deregulate ‘again’ in January 2022? Why should Nigerians trust this administration for anything at all? Is whatever is left of PEF in the new entity still interested in ‘equalising’ petrol prices all over the country ‘because we are one, indivisible nation’? Is that how deregulated markets work? Or has the government shown Nigerians that it is ready for a market where the price of petrol in Victoria Island is higher than in Okekoto Agege, maybe because posh people live and work in V.I. and can pay more, and the price in Argungu or Jimeta may be significantly higher than in Port Harcourt because of the cost of logistics? Are we ready to liberalise importation from Maradi and elsewhere, and allow people to sell at any price they want or that balances their books and turns them good profit? Are we ready to rein in the oligopolies that will likely skin Nigerians alive in that sector with price fixing, price gouging, blackmails, fraud and what have you? A key player once told me one-on-one, that there were no saints in their business.

I am not certain that we are ready, simply because primordial thinking about these issues is too ingrained in the minds of our leaders. I am not talking of Buhari alone. He has to convince state governors, traditional and religious leaders and so-called stakeholders, to make them see what real deregulation is about. The first step of that process has not even been taken at all. In fact, we hear that the El-Rufai committee set up to look at this issue is proposing a price of N380, and it looks like that will be the landing point in January, if this government is crazy enough to stick a fist in the mouth of Nigerians. The minister of Finance, Hajia Zainab Ahmed has proposed some palliatives – which turns out to be more expensive than the so-called subsidies, makes no sense and shows just how desperate the government is. The issue is not palliatives. We have been seeing palliatives since at least the time of the Petroleum Trust Fund headed by no less than Buhari in the mid-1990s. For me, it is either the government deregulates the price of petrol or not. The palliatives are an avenue for massive fraud. But all considered, this government should please not go near this project. The government has since spent whatever goodwill it brought under one year of its advent. It should just ride out whatever time is left with Nigerians. Let it be another government’s liability to wrestle with the issue of the deregulation of fuel price, as desirable as it may be.


[/b]The issues for the Buhari-Osinbajo government are not limited to the petroleum sector and the upcoming deregulation. I viewed every other sector and everywhere looks covered in crimson. If this government were a child, it would have been a very dull one – the type that gives its parents pangs of disappointment and apprehension for the future.[b]

Indeed, what we are subsidising is not the price of petroleum, but the fraud that permeates the entire ecosystem around fuel imports. A very tight confederacy exists around that sector and no matter what government has done, no one has been able to beat those guys. The opacity in the sector also stems from the fact that the market is international. What should provide transparency (international markets) also harbours the very elements of the darkness that envelopes that market. Which Nigerian will be able to interrogate the process of prospecting, exploration, production, storage, transportation, export, sale, import and purchase of the products involved in that sector? Even successive presidents in Nigeria have learnt to sit and wait for whatever that corporation gracefully hands over to them, whether they appoint themselves minister of Petroleum, or not. In spite of recent reforms, it will be awfully arduous to wrestle such ingrained and perennial power, as those with power never wish to relinquish it. Therefore, beyond the several funny calculations that lead us into deficits running into trillions, what we suffer is the massive and mindless corruption in that sector, which could be confirmed in the sabotage of all our refineries. We could add to that is the failure of our education to teach us anything tangible, or perhaps more aptly, our refusal to use our vaunted education to solve problems that matter. That is why we haven’t built anything in 72 years of higher education in this country, that can help us refine petroleum. The last time I checked, Nigeria imports at least $12 billion worth of refined petroleum products yearly, while we are entitled to merely 35 per cent of the $45 billion exported in crude oil yearly ($15 billion). What we import almost cancels out what we gain from exports. And this is before the huge administrative and operational expenses from our behemoth petroleum corporation and its many subsidiaries kicks in. The fault is indeed in our stars.

The issues for the Buhari-Osinbajo government are not limited to the petroleum sector and the upcoming deregulation. I viewed every other sector and everywhere looks covered in crimson. If this government were a child, it would have been a very dull one – the type that gives its parents pangs of disappointment and apprehension for the future. The government would like to claim some successes around infrastructure building though. The Chinese have helped us somewhat with the rail sector, with some nice airports – some kudos to Rotimi Amaechi – and I understand Minister Fashola will be opening some roads in the next one year. Yet, Nigeria could not be called an infrastructure-sufficient nation. It’s just that our standards have dropped, and the bar has been totally lowered. Most of our villages remain in the 17th century, where the earliest European adventurers met them. Our children are still out of school en masse as we waste their precious minds and I have seen some so-called enlightened leaders even justify that situation, choosing to blame it on colonialists. We thank God for our physiological composition and adaptation over time, otherwise we should have been sicker than people in ‘developed’ economies. COVID-19 did not wreak the foretold and expected havoc, no matter how our traducers tried.

But as fair as I tried to be, everything else looks woeful for this government and I wonder where the miracles will come from, that the Buhari-Osinbajo regime will not be declared – officially and on the streets – as the worst government this country has ever seen. Add to the attempt to leave the fuel price at N380, with the prospects of reaching N500 or N600 once we are left to the mercy of oligarchs, the fact that this government met the naira officially exchanging at N199 to the U.S. dollar and it has now devalued to at least N410 to $1, while on the streets, what exchanged for N220 is now N570, and you begin to see the meaning of a calamitous disaster. I have consistently called this government a Buhari-Osinbajo administration because I now see that indeed Osinbajo is serious about coming in as president in 2023. It will be a natural transition to someone who has been part of the government for eight years and within the same party. The idea will be not to upset the applecart at all. And indeed, Osinbajo is smart, savvy, hardworking, eloquent, fit, very intelligent. But he cannot extricate himself from the calamity on ground. More so, per the constitution, the economy is under the Vice President, and he has had some good part to play in how the economy has turned out. The two major devaluations we first had since 2016 – from N199 to N306 and then to N360 – happened under his watch and with his approval. Buhari was then busy repeating how he was never going to devalue the currency, when he had absolutely no plan on what to do differently. Osinbajo has also been repeating the idea that the naira should be floated. The naira could only float in one direction, for as far as the eyes can see – down. Add his flair and soft spot for arcane economics, like cryptocurrencies and the blinding success of fintechs and ‘investments’, and I’m afraid he may play a huge gamble if he comes in. I will write him another missive on this, seeking assurances. His economics is way too far to the right for the good of this country.

[/b]For now, my conclusion is that anyone that has been closely associated with this administration should not dare to step out for the 2023 elections. It will be a mockery of the Nigerian people. 2015-2022 will be a period best written off for most Nigerians. How then do we ensure we don’t get it so, so wrong in 2023? Frightening indeed. But we will outlive this one also. In 2023, for the sake of the economy and our own very lives, we cannot afford to get it wrong.[b]

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https://www.premiumtimesng.com/opinion/503283-why-the-buhari-osinbajo-administration-needs-multiple-economic-surgeries-and-miracles-by-tope-fasua.html

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It's only a blind man that won't see the achievement of Buhari/Osinbajo