*Situation Reports from Russia........*
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https://jkcyno.com/poland-opens-borders-for-ukrainian-refugees-video/

Thank you Poland..
Indeed a great brother not the one who want to forcefully invade a sovereign state just for his selfish benefit..

Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. What happens now?

They had no choice right?

For days together they asked for Security Guarantees - No Talk

For days together they asked for a Diplomatic Solution - No Talk

Every single day - Repeated Threats , Intimidation and Bad Publicity as Ukraine hid behind the NATO Nations.

They could have easily made overtures. Easily had a Truce meeting. Given Security Guarantees to Russia as requested by Lavrov almost for the last 50 days - day in and day out.

So finally Putin reacted!!!

To me it was unexpected - but i guess it was now or never for Putin. His Boys were itching for a fight and i guess the West were never going to respond to his more reasonable requests.

And now he recognized the 2 Rebel Separatist Regions as Russian

And now he sends his troops as Peace Keeping Forces to keep the Peace

And now he has dismantled the Ukrainan Airbases and Military Base

The Question is WHAT NEXT ??

Option A - Ukraine comes to the Negotiating Table. Ukraine negotiates a Peace with Russia and Europe breathes in Relief. Its pretty easy actually. Putin doesnt want Kyiv. All that he wants are (a) Acknowledgement of the two separatist regions by Ukraine (b) Assurances from Ukraine about their NATO Membership and putting it off for maybe 5 years.

Likelihood - Unlikely. US is still pulling Ukraines Strings and its not likely that Zelensky would come to the Table to negotiate by passing the US.

Option B - Russia stops at the Two Separatist States - Declares a Victory, Amalgamates them into Russia over the course of the next few weeks and braces to withhold the Sanctions as Zelensky continues to be a lackey of the West.

Likelihood - Likely. This course gives Face to Putin. He takes back Russian Speaking Parts of Ukraine. He then spends the rest of his time justifying his actions and pushing the UNSC

Likewise he can easily roll into Kyiv if they become too friendly with the West. My Guess is if Ukraine dont give iron clad guarantees - Putin will try to roll into Kyiv in 6 months maximum.

Option C - Russia moves all the way to Kyiv. This is highly unlikely but not impossible. Depending on how much resistance they encounter and depending on if Nato - they could puncture a hole and move all the way to Kyiv and install a puppet Government there.

It all depends on how hard the West make it for Putin. If they impose only sanctions - Russia will definitely think of moving to Kiev, if they impose weapons and counter attacks then they may stop.

Likelihood - Slim. That would be genuine aggression and act of war. Right now its not yet an act of war. Its just moving into Russian speaking territories as a Protective Measure (Yes i know its BS but legally , technically its just that). If they march all the way to Kyiv - it would be Aggression 101.

What is the Best Option?

Option D - Option D is NATO and Russia making Security Guarantees and talking about Future Expansion.

Likelihood - Zero. Even if Germany and France push for the same.

Putin was backed into a corner and now he has come out swinging angrily

Yet the fact that he did all this just 2 days after the Olympics makes me wonder if maybe, just maybe - He actually was requested by Xi to wait until the Olympics to make his move!!!!

Will this lead to WWIII?

No. Highly Unlikely.

WWIII = Nuclear

And I am certain US would not risk a Nuclear War over Ukraine. Already Republicans are openly supporting Putin and asking US - why US wants to interfere.

Could all this have been avoided?

Easily. Very Easily.

As Putin says - 27 Memos sent to the Western Nations from September 2021 to January 2022. Twenty Seven!!!

15 Dialogue Meetings between Lavrov and Blinken and others

And every time Russia again and again requested for Security Guarantees and no NATO Expansion

And every time the response was the same “NATO is a Voluntary Organization and we cannot thwart a Nations choice”

So he moved 130,000 Troops and then it was “Withdraw your Troops”

https://www.quora.com/Russia-has-launched-a-full-scale-invasion-of-Ukraine-What-happens-now/answer/Kanthaswamy-Balasubramaniam?ch=15&oid=340634828&share=a430e34d&srid=uT7V2k&target_type=answer