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Russo-ukraine War Update - Foreign Affairs (5) - Nairaland

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RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR : See Stupendous Transformation In Bucha - Pics / Russo-ukraine War: Briefing By Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy / Russia - Ukraine War In Pictures, From The Frontlines (Photos) (2) (3) (4)

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Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by baralatie(m): 9:25am On Apr 30, 2022
I saw blanks on the thread
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by baralatie(m): 9:26am On Apr 30, 2022
Ok come and update o
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 9:45am On May 01, 2022
It’s difficult posting updates here because the mod or bot bans me every update stating, “you can not do these right now. Try again after few hours.” I guess it’s a 24 hr ban. I really don’t know why.
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 9:46am On May 01, 2022
Ok let’s try updating the thread again
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 9:47am On May 01, 2022
Ukrainian Ambassador to Berlin Andriy Melnyk again expressed dissatisfaction with the volume of military and financial assistance provided by Germany, calling the sluggish policy of Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the light of current events, including on the issue of arms supplies to Kyiv. He expressed his point of view in an interview with the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag.
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 9:48am On May 01, 2022
British tankers with aviation kerosene seen in Italy. Apparently, they are heading towards Ukraine.

Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 9:49am On May 01, 2022
Russian aviation destroyed two Ukrainian S-300 complexes in the area of ​​Artyomovsk and Zaporozhye

Ministry of Defense of Russia
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 9:49am On May 01, 2022
High-precision missiles "Onyx" in the Odessa region at a military airfield destroyed a hangar with weapons and ammunition received from the United States and European countries - Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 9:51am On May 01, 2022
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that on April 30, two groups of civilians, a total of 46 people, left the residential buildings adjacent to Azovstal, they were provided with accommodation and food
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 9:54am On May 01, 2022
German tanks are heading east. The Russian Soldier loves to burn German tanks with crosses on the sides)

1 Like

Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by texazzpete(m): 10:55am On May 01, 2022
After you finish copying and pasting Russian propaganda and misinformation here, I hope they'll give you citizenship?

This was you, a Month before the war, claiming that no invasion was going to happen and that it was all a lie made up by the West

https://www.nairaland.com/6956362/parthogenetic-conflict-there-no-russian

Reject lies.

1 Like

Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by baralatie(m): 12:46pm On May 01, 2022
owagbeba:
It’s difficult posting updates here because the mod or bot bans me every update stating, “you can not do these right now. Try again after few hours.” I guess it’s a 24 hr ban. I really don’t know why.
Welcome to how nairaland works
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 6:51pm On May 02, 2022
Ukraine's Army Is In A Very Bad State - More Fighting Will Only Destroy It

The French news agency AFP has published a report by Daphne Rousseau from near the Ukrainian frontline. It allows us to gain some realistic view of the state of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Exhausted Ukrainian soldiers return from eastern front

Here is a current map of the frontline. Kiev is in the upper left corner.

I will quote the AFP report piecemeal and add my observations:

Packed with exhausted Ukrainian soldiers with clenched jaws, the truck drives away at full speed. The troops from the 81st brigade have just received an order to withdraw from the eastern front where Russian forces advance.
The brigade walked 12 kilometres (7.5 miles) Saturday, camouflaged in the woods and under crossfire, until their point of retreat at Sviatoguirsk.

The 81st Airmobile Brigade consists of 3 infantry battalions equipped with BTR-70 armored personnel carriers that can be loaded onto a plane. It also has a strong artillery group with 3 gun and missile battalions, and the usual hodgepodge of support units.

As the Ukrainian troops had to walk 12 kilometers a question arises. Where are their armored carriers? Even when infantry is deployed in dugouts and trenches its transport should always be nearby (~3 km) to be able to quickly pick it up when necessary.

The most likely answer is that those BTR-70, as well as the brigade's artillery, no longer exist. From today's 'clobber list' as published by the Defense Ministry of Russia (emphasis added):

In total, 146 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 683 unmanned aerial vehicles, 281 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,756 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 316 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,234 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,563 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.
Those numbers will be, like all such counts, somewhat exaggerated. But they do tell a story.

Sviatoguirsk, the extraction point for the troops, is some 10 kilometers southeast of Izium which the Russian forces have taken a while ago.

More from the AFP piece:

For a month, the 81st -- whose motto is "always first" -- battled to push back the Russian advance in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region where Moscow's troops move forward slowly, taking villages one by one.
"Everyone understands that we must guard the line here, we cannot let the enemy move closer, we try to hold it with all our force," says lieutenant Yevgen Samoylov, anxious that the unit could be hit by Russian fire at any point.

"As you can hear, the enemy is very, very near," he says, pointing to the sky. The line of Russian tanks is on the other side of a hill, around seven kilometres (4.3 miles) away.

The troops walked 12 kilometers and are now on trucks. The enemy is currently 7 kilometers away. Simple math will explain that with a 5 kilometer deep gain by the Russian forces.

At 21 years old, Samoylov, an officer from the Odessa military academy, finds himself managing 130 conscripts, often twice his age.
"It's my first war. I was supposed to graduate in four months, but they sent me here," says the baby-faced officer with a short black beard.

What a disaster. 130 conscripts up to age 40+. These ain't well trained warriors but teachers and car mechanics or farmers drafted into the war. With 130 troops the unit has about the size of a company. Infantry companies in the Soviet/Russian/Ukrainian army are relative big:

[T]he strength of a tank company is 31-40 people, and the number of servicemen of a motorized rifle company ranges from 150 people. Often a company is commanded by an officer with the rank of captain, and only in some units this position is occupied by a major.
The junior lieutenant Samoylov, who did not even finish his officer course, is leading a unit that is usually led by an officer two to three ranks higher than his. Where are the higher officers?

More from AFP:

The unit swung into action on February 23, a day before Russia launched the invasion.
At the start of the war, they spent a month defending Izium, which fell on April 1, before joining the fighting around the village of Oleksandrivka.

"Some really difficult battles," says the quiet Samoylov.

Izium is at the northern front where Russian force press towards the south. There are several Oleksandrivka (Alexandrovka) named settlements in the Ukraine, three of them in the Donetsk oblast. There may be more unofficial ones with that name. Two of the known ones are in the north west of Donetzk Oblast some 20 kilometer southwest and southeast of Izium respectively.

The map shows Izium in the north, the western Oleksandrivka is on the bottom left. The other Oleksandrivka lies on the west periphery of Kramatorsk city, to which it practically belongs. It is not named on the map.

Neither town is directly on the current frontline which runs about 10 kilometer to the north. Sviatoguirsk, the extraction point, is much nearer to the front. That is where the troops likely were before they walked towards the trucks.

The AFP piece continues:

In this brigade, like the others, they don't say how many people have been killed.
When the subject comes up, Samoylov's gaze becomes misty. The pain is raw.

A deadly silence takes over the military truck during the drive to the abandoned building where the soldiers will stay during their week of rest.

Samoylov's 130 men are unlikely to be from one original company. They are probably all what is left from a battalion that originally had three companies and more than 400 men.

When the convoy passes a truck loaded with long-range missiles dashing to the front, the soldiers automatically make a "V" sign for victory with their fingers before fixing their gaze once more on their feet or the horizon in silence.
Is there still some morale in these men or is that just a routine gesture? I believe it is the later.

On arrival at the base, the soldiers unload their weapons, remove their kit and immediately go into one of the dilapidated rooms without electricity where they undergo a medical examination after returning from the front.
For the survivors, "there are small injuries on the forehead, those who were buried under the rubble during a bombing have fractures and (injuries) linked to shrapnel," says Vadym Kyrylov, the brigade's doctor.

"But we mainly see somatic problems, like hypertension or chronic illnesses that have worsened," the 25-year-old adds.

Each battalion of the 81st brigade should have a doctor with a more senior one serving in the brigade's headquarter company. That a 25 year old one is in the brigade's doctor role again points to a lack of men.

- 'Trench foot' -
The men also greatly suffer from "trench foot" syndrome caused by prolonged exposure to moisture, unsanitary conditions or the cold.

"For a month they are not able to dry their shoes... so there are many feet-related injuries, mainly fungi and infections," the doctor says.

Military boots should be watertight. During my time in the military we trained in some very muddy areas but I never got my feet wet. One wonders what quality Ukrainian army boots have.

After the medical visit, they all have the same reflex: to isolate and use their phone to call a female partner, a child or a parent.
Soldiers cannot use their phones on the front, and any application that requires geolocation is banned.

How strict is the control of those policies? Experience says that if soldiers are allowed to have phones with them they will inevitably use them. That is why Russia prohibits its soldiers to carry phones.

Four soldiers reassemble the rusty metal bed frames and sweep the floor coated with dust to make a semblance of a room.

That does not sound like a fun place for rest and recreation. Are there even mattresses for those metal frames?

"It's the moment for the guys to relax, to take care of their physical and psychological injuries, to regain their strength before returning to battle," Samoylov says.
"They'll sleep warm, eat normal food and try to more or less get back on their feet."

Those troops were nine weeks on the frontline and now only get one week of rest in a miserable place. Samoylov is an optimist. None of those injuries, especially not the psychological ones, will heal within a week. It takes years to overcome the cruelties of war and sometimes more than a lifetime.

The Ukrainian army is obviously in a very bad shape as it pushes barely trained conscripts to the frontline where Russian artillery will eat them up. That it is in such a state is not astonishing though.

The Swiss military intelligence officer Jacques Baud has worked in the Ukraine and has written about the current war (here, here and here). He describes the sorry state the Ukrainian military was in from the get-go:

The Ukrainian army was then in a deplorable state. In October 2018, after four years of war, the chief Ukrainian military prosecutor, Anatoly Matios, stated that Ukraine had lost 2,700 men in the Donbass: 891 from illnesses, 318 from road accidents, 177 from other accidents, 175 from poisonings (alcohol, drugs), 172 from careless handling of weapons, 101 from breaches of security regulations, 228 from murders and 615 from suicides.

In fact, the army was undermined by the corruption of its cadres and no longer enjoyed the support of the population. According to a British Home Office report, in the March/April 2014 recall of reservists, 70 percent did not show up for the first session, 80 percent for the second, 90 percent for the third, and 95 percent for the fourth. In October/November 2017, 70% of conscripts did not show up for the “Fall 2017” recall campaign. This is not counting suicides and desertions (often over to the autonomists), which reached up to 30 percent of the workforce in the ATO area. Young Ukrainians refused to go and fight in the Donbass and preferred emigration, which also explains, at least partially, the demographic deficit of the country.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense then turned to NATO to help make its armed forces more “attractive.” Having already worked on similar projects within the framework of the United Nations, I was asked by NATO to participate in a program to restore the image of the Ukrainian armed forces. But this is a long-term process and the Ukrainians wanted to move quickly.

So, to compensate for the lack of soldiers, the Ukrainian government resorted to paramilitary militias. They are essentially composed of foreign mercenaries, often extreme right-wing militants. In 2020, they constituted about 40 percent of the Ukrainian forces and numbered about 102,000 men, according to Reuters. They were armed, financed and trained by the United States, Great Britain, Canada and France. There were more than 19 nationalities—including Swiss.

The Ukrainian army will not win the war nor will the fascist militias. The country simply has no chance.

'Western' governments are abusing the Ukraine and its soldiers. They want to 'weaken Russia' and do not allow the Ukraine to sue for peace.

That is criminal.

Jacques Baud again:

[D]espite [President Zelensky's] probable willingness to achieve a political settlement for the crisis with Russia, Zelensky is not allowed to do so. Just after he indicated his readiness to talk with Russia, on 25 February, the European Union decided two days later to provide €450M in arms to Ukraine. The same happened in March. As soon as Zelensky indicated he wanted to have talks with Vladimir Putin on 21 March, the European Union decided to double its military aid to €1 billion on 23 March. End of March, Zelensky made an interesting offer that was retracted shortly after.

Apparently, Zelensky is trying to navigate between Western pressure and his far right on the one hand and his concern to find a solution on the other, and is forced into a ” back-and-forth,” which discourages the Russian negotiators.
...
Today, Zelensky must lead his country under the sword of Damocles, with the blessing of Western politicians and unethical media. His lack of political experience made him an easy prey for those who were trying to exploit Ukraine against Russia, and in the hands of extreme right-wing movements. As he acknowledges in an interview with CNN, he was obviously lured into believing that Ukraine would enter NATO more easily after an open conflict with Russia, as Oleksey Arestovich, his adviser, confirmed in 2019.

The Ukraine has lost the war. All the weapons systems the 'west' is now pushing into it are of no use as the Ukraine obviously lacks the men to field them. They will likely get pilfered and in future some of them may well be used against the 'west' itself.

They would do some bloody justice.

By
www.moonofalabama.org

Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by baralatie(m): 9:42pm On May 02, 2022
cry
Dem just use zelensky cause problem for ukraine
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by baralatie(m): 2:41pm On May 04, 2022
Na wa o
These nairaland bots sef
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by baralatie(m): 2:42pm On May 04, 2022
Op got banned again
cry
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by baralatie(m): 2:43pm On May 04, 2022
That was I got these 24 he bans when we were warning Nigerians but for were?

Who know knows
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 4:56pm On May 06, 2022
U.S. Pushes Fake Stories To Goad Russia Into Escalation


The geniuses (not) at the National Security Council want to goad Russia into direct attacks on U.S. forces or interests. That would give the U.S. an excuse to further escalate the war in Ukraine into an open confrontation. It would also diverts the attention away from domestic problems.

To achieve this the NSC has pushed a number of stories to the media which claim that alleged Ukrainian successes are based on U.S. intelligence.

U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals, Officials Say, May 4, NYT

WASHINGTON — The United States has provided intelligence about Russian units that has allowed Ukrainians to target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war, according to senior American officials.
Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.

The targeting help is part of a classified effort by the Biden administration to provide real-time battlefield intelligence to Ukraine. That intelligence also includes anticipated Russian troop movements gleaned from recent American assessments of Moscow’s secret battle plan for the fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, the officials said. Officials declined to specify how many generals had been killed as a result of U.S. assistance.

The United States has focused on providing the location and other details about the Russian military’s mobile headquarters, which relocate frequently. Ukrainian officials have combined that geographic information with their own intelligence — including intercepted communications that alert the Ukrainian military to the presence of senior Russian officers — to conduct artillery strikes and other attacks that have killed Russian officers.

The story is obvious bullshit because there are only two Russian generals who have died so far during the Russian campaign in Ukraine.

Major General Andrey Sukhovetsky was killed on February 28 and Major General Vladimir Frolov was killed in early April. Both deaths were immediately officially acknowledged and reported in Russian media. Both men were buried with military honors.

All other 'killed Russian generals' are victims of the 'ghost of Kiev'. The Ukrainian propaganda apparatus likes such stories because it knows that 'western' media will pick up on them.

Russia does not hide the death of high officers. It is impossible to do so over longer periods as such men are known by many others. It would be bad for any government to get caught in such a scheme. There is also no reason to do so.

Some U.S. sources claim that a general's death will demoralize the troops he led. The opposite is the case. Generals getting killed on or near the frontline demonstrate to frontline soldiers that they are not alone in their fighting and that their officers are doing the job while carrying the same high risk than they do.

The Pentagon denied any involvement:

The Pentagon denied Thursday that the U.S. has shared intelligence with Ukraine with the intent of targeting and killing senior Russian military leaders, stressing that the goal of U.S. intelligence is simply to allow Ukrainian forces to defend themselves against Russia's invasion.
The generals in the Pentagon are keen to not become targets for Russian reprisals.

Here is another such story:

U.S. intel helped Ukraine sink Russian flagship Moskva, officials say, May 5, NBCnews

Intelligence shared by the U.S. helped Ukraine sink the Russian cruiser Moskva, U.S. officials told NBC News, confirming an American role in perhaps the most embarrassing blow to Vladimir Putin’s troubled invasion of Ukraine.
A guided missile cruiser carrying a crew of 510, the Moskva was the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. It sank on April 14 after being struck by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles.

It is in fact still not clear what has happened to the Moskva. Russia only said that the ship had an explosion on board that ripped the hull below the waterline and caused a fire. There are other possibilities but hits by two Ukrainian anti-ship missiles seem unlikely.

The Pentagon again denied any direct involvement:

In a statement released after this story was published, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said the U.S. did not provide Ukraine with "specific targeting information for the Moskva."
"We were not involved in the Ukrainians’ decision to strike the ship or in the operation they carried out," Kirby added. "We had no prior knowledge of Ukraine’s intent to target the ship. The Ukrainians have their own intelligence capabilities to track and target Russian naval vessels, as they did in this case."

The last sentence is incorrect as Russia destroyed all Ukrainian naval radars that were stupid enough to radiate.

Russia will not react to such stupid stories. It knows that the U.S. is pushing all kinds of battlefield information as well as weapons to the Ukrainians. It is also assumed that foreign generals are 'consulting' the general staff of the Ukrainian forces. Neither will help the Ukraine to win the war.

Over the longer term Russia may well seek revenge for the U.S. proxy war against it. But President Putin is a patient man and revenge is a dish best served cold.

www.moonofalabama.org

1 Like

Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 9:51am On May 07, 2022
Senior officers from the United States, France and Great Britain may be at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol blocked by the Russian and Donetsk military, Yan Gagin, an adviser to the head of the DPR government, said in an interview with RIA Novosti.
“In any case, I can confirm the presence there of senior officers of foreign states, primarily European states. This is also stated by the Azov people themselves (the militants of the Azov regiment, against whom a criminal case has been initiated in Russia .

and those those who were taken prisoner, those who surrendered, laid down their arms, and the civilians who came out of there. That is, we can judge this from the words," the agency's interlocutor said.
Civilians evacuated from the Azov region were in the village of Bezymennoye

According to him, indirectly in favor of this are attempts to withdraw the Azov people from the territory of the enterprise and the efforts of representatives of foreign states, in particular, "frequent calls" to the Kremlin by French President Emmanuel Macron .
Answering the question of which countries the mercenaries could come from, Gagin replied that "presumably, these are the United States, Great Britain , France - at least."

At the time of the proclamation of the DPR in 2014, Mariupol , with a population of about 450 thousand people, was the second city of the republic after Donetsk , but in June of the same year, the Ukrainian security forces recaptured it. On March 7, 12 days after the start of the Russian military operation, the deputy commander of the Vostok battalion, Alexander Semyonov , announced that the city was surrounded. Subsequently, the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense Igor Konashenkov announced the "cleansing of the entire urban area" from the military, militants and mercenaries. The remnants of the Ukrainian group are blocked at the Azovstal plant and refuse to capitulate.

Vladimir Putin called the assault on the plant inexpedient and ordered it to be cancelled. Putin explained that it is necessary to think about saving the lives of Russian soldiers and officers, and ordered to block the Azovstal zone. During a telephone conversation with the head of the European Council , Charles Michel , who called for the opening of humanitarian corridors from Mariupol, the Russian president said that life is guaranteed to all who lay down their arms.
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by baralatie(m): 10:41am On May 07, 2022
Now this information changes everything about the war in Ukraine!
If they are taking alive!
I don't know how this will turn
undecided
But I do no that Russia getting them alive is a huge advantage
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 11:30am On May 07, 2022
����⚡The frigate “Admiral Makarov” is in Sevastopol

Another Ukrainian propoganda
about the destruction of a Russian Navy ship has been debunked.

A photo has been published in which the Admiral Makarov is safe and sound in the port of Sevastopol today.

The day before, a number of Ukrainian media, NATO shills and officials were actively disseminating information about an alleged missile attack on our frigate off Serpent Island.

This turned out to be another lie to inspire the Ukrainians against the backdrop of the defeat in Mariupol and the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in battles.

1 Like

Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 6:43pm On May 07, 2022
RUSSIAN FORCES TAKE CONTROL OF KEY STRONGHOLD OF POPASNAYA. STRIKES ELIMINATE DOZENS OF FOREIGN EQUIPMENT PIECES IN KHARKOV


On May 7, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Russian forces have destroyed a large concentration of military equipment from the USA and European countries near the Bogodukhov railway station in Kharkov Region.

The Russian military revealed that strikes resulted in the elimination of more than 280 members of pro-Kyiv forces and up to 48 armoured and motor vehicles.

The strikes came amid the intensification of clashes in the area of Izum, in the south of Kharkov Region, and in the entire sector of the Russian advance towards the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Intense fighting was reported around Barvenko, Svyatogorsk and Liman in this area.

Also, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, 3 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles and 9 Smerch multiple-launch rockets nave been also intercepted over Izyum city, Kharkov Region. Expectedly, the intensification of the strikes by Kyiv forces correspond with the intensification of the fighting.

The positional fighting continued on the contact line in the sector of the Severodonetsk-Lysichansk agglomeration. An active advance there by forces of LPR and Russia have been partly halted as Russian forces carried out a flank strike on the remaining grouping of the Kyiv government there.

Russian-led forces continued regular strikes on fortified positions of pro-Kyiv units around Severodonetsk, while Russian and LPR troops developed offensive in the sector of Popasnaya and Zolotoe.

Popasnaya remained a contested area, but as of the middle day of April 7 local sources claimed that the town came under full control of Russian-led forces and the demining work is ongoing there.

The breakthrough around Popasnaya, if confirmed, will mark the collapse of the northern flank of the grouping of Kyiv’s forces in the sector. This will likely lead to the collapse of Kyiv’s defense in Severodonetsk and Seversk and will open route towards Bahmut.


The tense situation remains around the Azovstal plant in the industrial area of Mariupol. On May 6, clashes were reported in the area with Russian forces striking units of the Azov battalion and affiliated formations that tried carry out attacks from their encircled positions. The direct storm of the area (despite tactical advances of the Russians) is not going because Kyiv’s troops hold a large number of civilians as hostages. The humanitarian efforts to provide aid to civilians or evacuate them are used by Kyiv’s troops for own military purposes. 176 civilians have been evacuated from the area as of now.

Russian strikes pounded depots and positions of Kyiv’s forces around Nikolaev:

As of the middle of May 7, no large clashes are ongoing there. Media reports claimed that some number of pro-Kiyv troops from the Azovstal plant left the plant under a white flag. However, it does not seem that the garrison led by Ukrainian radicals is going to surrender as long as they have hostages to bargain.


Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry revealed additional details about strikes on military targets in Ukraine.

According to the statement, high-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Air Force hit 5 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as an ammunition depot near Bakhmut, the Donetsk People’s Republic.

At the same time, Russian operational-tactical and army aviation hit 18 military assets of Ukraine. The targets included 2 command posts near Skovorodnikovo in Kharkov Region, 5 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment, 3 ammunition and fuel depots near Dachnoe in Odessa Region.

Odessa:

The Russian military added that missile troops and artillery hit 44 command posts and 196 strongholds of Ukrainian troops as well as areas of manpower and military equipment concentration during the night.

Also, Russian air defence means shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Berezovka in Nikolaev Region, Signalnoe, Luganskoe, Krasnogorovka, Yasinovatoe and Zugres in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Olgino in Kherson Region, Cherneshchina in Kharkov Region.

The Russian side says that since the start of the operation Russian forces have destroyed 152 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 762 unmanned aerial vehicles, 295 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,895 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 333 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,364 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,716 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Just another Bayraktar TB2 shot down by Russia’s Pantsir systems:

Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 10:29pm On May 07, 2022
����⚡Confirmatory video about the occupation of the village of Svetlichnoye. Earlier, Kadyrov announced the capture of Svetlichny.

https:///intelslava/28177
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 10:30pm On May 07, 2022
����❗The NATO Secretary General said that the general offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donbass had not even begun yet. The RF Armed Forces use a limited amount of available forces.
Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 8:39pm On May 11, 2022
Ukraine - Congress Passes The Bucks, Realism Sneaks In, Poland Plans For More War

After a lot of talk about defeating Russia in the Ukraine and an alleged lack of Russian fighting abilities Congress passed another $40 billion fund for weapons and economic support. That brings the total to some $53 billion for Ukraine.

Most of the money will go to the U.S. weapon industry, the CIA and to various Ukrainian oligarchs. Hardly anything will be received by those in need.

With that packet now passed reality is allowed to sneak into U.S. media reporting on the issue.

Not one but two reports in the New York Times suddenly lament about the huge area of land the Russian troops have taken in east Ukraine:

How much of Ukraine does Russia hold?
Ukraine War’s Geographic Reality: Russia Has Seized Much of the East
From the later:

Nonetheless, the Donbas seizure, combined with the Russian invasion’s early success in seizing parts of southern Ukraine adjoining the Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, gives the Kremlin enormous leverage in any future negotiation to halt the conflict.
And the Russians enjoy the added advantage of naval dominance in the Black Sea, the only maritime route for Ukrainian trade, which they have paralyzed with an embargo that could eventually starve Ukraine economically and is already contributing to a global grain shortage.

I have often pointed out that the Ukrainian frontline will have a huge number of casualties from Russian artillery strikes. It is even worse than I had thought:

At the main hospital in Kramatorsk, a city in Donetsk, ambulances stream in day and night, carrying soldiers wounded at the front, who describe being pinned down by near constant shelling.
About 80 percent of the patients are wounded by explosives such as mines and artillery shells, said Capt. Eduard Antonovskyy, the deputy commander of the medical unit at the hospital. Because of this, he said, very few patients have serious injuries. Either you’re far enough from an explosion to survive or you aren’t, he said.

“We either get moderate injuries or deaths,” Captain Antonovskyy said.

Additional to those more realistic reports the NYT allowed one of it authors to write an opinion piece against the widening of the war:

America and Its Allies Want to Bleed Russia. They Really Shouldn’t.
At first, the Western support for Ukraine was mainly designed to defend against the invasion. It is now set on a far grander ambition: to weaken Russia itself. Presented as a common-sense response to Russian aggression, the shift, in fact, amounts to a significant escalation.
By expanding support to Ukraine across the board and shelving any diplomatic effort to stop the fighting, the United States and its allies have greatly increased the danger of an even larger conflict. They are taking a risk far out of step with any realistic strategic gain.
...
When I was in Ukraine during the first weeks of the war, even staunch Ukrainian nationalists expressed views far more pragmatic than those that are routine in America now. Talk of neutral status for Ukraine and internationally monitored plebiscites in Donetsk and Luhansk has been jettisoned in favor of bombast and grandstanding.
...
What’s more, the invasion has led directly to greater military spending in second- and third-tier European powers. The number of NATO troops in Eastern Europe has grown tenfold, and a Nordic expansion of the organization is likely. A general rearmament of Europe is taking place, driven not by desire for autonomy from American power but in service to it. For the United States, this should be success enough. It is unclear what more there is to gain by weakening Russia, beyond fantasies of regime change.
...
Diplomatic efforts ought to be the centerpiece of a new Ukraine strategy. Instead, the war’s boundaries are being expanded and the war itself recast as a struggle between democracy and autocracy, in which the Donbas is the frontier of freedom. This is not just declamatory extravagance. It is reckless. The risks hardly need to be stated.

Indeed. The current U.S. strategy will end in a catastrophe for Ukraine because it is based on false narratives. Lt.Col. (ret) Daniel Davis has consistently provided a more realist view of the military situation in Ukraine. His latest piece fits that record:

Russia’s Progress in Donbas Means Ukraine Likely Won’t Win the War
Over the past few days, a flurry of senior leaders in both Ukraine and Washington have issued defiant claims of not merely resisting Russian aggression, but pushing towards outright victory. While such aspirations are entirely understandable, it is unwise to set policy seeking a preferred outcome if there does not exist a rational path by which Ukraine could accomplish that objective. At present, most indicators, fundamentals of war, and current battlefield trendlines support the prospect of a Ukrainian defeat.
Davis correctly describes the current military situation on the ground and concludes:

By continuing to seek a military victory in Ukraine, Ukraine’s troops will continue fighting, no negotiated settlement will be realistically sought, and most likely Russian troops continue making progress. As a result, more Ukrainian civilians and troops will continue to be killed and wounded, more cities destroyed, and the economic and food crises – for both Ukraine and the world – will worsen. The most likely outcome will not change (a negotiated settlement, not a Ukrainian military victory), but the cost to Kyiv will be much, much worse.
Another former military man who has a realist view of the war is Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret). During the first Gulf war he led a unit in the Battle of 73 Easting:

Macgregor was the "squadron operations officer who essentially directed the Battle of 73 Easting" during the Gulf War. Facing an Iraqi Republican Guard opponent, he led a contingent consisting of 19 tanks, 26 Bradley Fighting Vehicles and 4 M1064 mortar carriers through the sandstorm to the 73 Easting at roughly 16:18 hours on 26 February 1991 destroyed almost 70 Iraqi armored vehicles with no U.S. casualties in a 23-minute span of the battle.
The previously quoted Lt.Col. Davis was wounded in the same battle. As both men have seen real mechanized war it is not by chance that they have come to similar conclusions.

Macgregor warns of a widening of the war through a Polish intervention in west Ukraine which would eventually drag NATO into the war:

The Threat of Polish Involvement in Ukraine
The war against Russia in Ukraine has evolved, but not in the way Western observers predicted.
Why would Poland, with the help of Lithuania, try to take western Ukraine? It is all about history:

The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, formally known as the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and, after 1791, as the Commonwealth of Poland, was a country and bi-federation of Poland and Lithuania ruled by a common monarch in real union, who was both King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania. It was one of the largest and most populous countries of 16th to 17th-century Europe. At its largest territorial extent, in the early 17th century, the Commonwealth covered almost 1,000,000 km2 (400,000 sq mi) and as of 1618 sustained a multi-ethnic population of almost 12 million.
Here is how that commonwealth looked on a map with current borders:

See map below
There have been talks for a while that Poland would send a 'peacekeeping' force to occupy Galicia in west-Ukraine. I for one predicted it on February 24, at the very onset of the war:

Thanks to Stalin's additions to the Ukraine three countries, Poland, Hungary and Romania, have claims to certain areas in the Ukraine's western regions. If they want to snatch those up again it is now probably the best time to do so. Despite being part of NATO, which likely would not support such moves, those three will have domestic policy difficulties to withstand the urge.
An official looking document now says that a Polish/Lithuanian operation will start on May 22-24.

Lord Of War @lord_of_war____ - 14:46 UTC · May 10, 2022
����The document was sent to the President of the State Border Service of Ukraine, Serhiy Daynek, stating that it is 22-24. May joint "Lithuanian-Polish peacekeeping contingent" consisting of 4 battalions, 9,500 soldiers and 279 units of military equipment [planned to enter the territory of Ukraine. Another confirmation of the development of plans for the occupation and further division of the country. Even if this particular document turns out to be false (which is not excluded), it does not change the general course of the West in relation to Ukraine.]
picture
9.500 soldiers are way more than fit into 4 battalions. A battalion has typically some 400-800 soldiers. These are more like three small brigades with 3-4 battalions each.

A Polish/Lithuanian move is exactly what Col. Macgregor is warning of:

Ten weeks after the conflict began, it is instructive to re-examine the strategic picture. The war against Russia in Ukraine has evolved, but not in the way Western observers predicted. Ukrainian forces look shattered and exhausted. The supplies reaching Ukrainian troops fighting in Eastern Ukraine are a fraction of what is needed. In most cases, replacements and new weapons are destroyed long before they reach the front.

Confronted with the unambiguous failure of U.S. assistance and the influx of new weapons to rescue Ukrainian forces from certain destruction, the Biden administration is desperate to reverse the situation and save face. Poland seems to offer a way out. More important, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have both expressed the desire to erase the borders between Poland and Ukraine.

Unconfirmed reports from Warsaw indicate that after Washington rejected the proposals for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, along with the transfer of Polish MIG-29 aircrafts to Ukrainian pilots, the Polish general staff was quietly instructed to formulate plans for intervention in the Ukrainian conflict by seizing the western part of Ukraine. Naturally, military action of this scale would require Kiev’s approval, but given Washington’s de facto control of the Zelensky government, approval for Polish military intervention should not be a problem.

Presumably, the Biden administration may hope that a collision involving Russians and Poles in any form—including air and missile strikes against Polish forces on the Ukrainian side of the border—would potentially call for the NATO council to meet and address Article V of the NATO treaty.

It would mean that NATO, or at least major parts of it, would actively join the Ukrainian proxy war against Russia. While I believe that Russia has withheld forces from the current war to eventually defend against NATO, any entry of it into the war would significantly extend the fighting and the danger of a nuclear exchange would become imminent

Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 11:00pm On May 17, 2022
Indeed propaganda is an opiate.

Surrender = evacuate ....only by western propaganda media ...lol

Ukraine - For Laughs

'Western' media are nothing but Zelenski regime megaphones.

Liveuamap @Liveuamap - 21:30 UTC · May 16, 2022
Zelensky confirms Azovstal troops evacuation: «Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive. This has been our principle»
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-may... via @myroslavapetsa
---
The New York Times @nytimes - 22:59 UTC · May 16, 2022
Breaking News: Ukraine ended its “combat mission” in Mariupol and said fighters were being evacuated, signaling that the battle at a steel plant was over.
link
---
CNN International @cnni - 23:39 UTC · May 16, 2022
Ukrainian forces say they have ended their "combat mission" in besieged Mariupol, as hundreds are evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant. https://cnn.it/3FQALcV
---
Reuters @Reuters - 3:35 AM · May 17, 2022
Ukraine's military said it was working to evacuate all remaining troops from their last stronghold in the besieged port of Mariupol, ceding control of the city to Russia after months of bombardment https://reut.rs/3wlYbUG

From the false headline down the Washington Post report on the issue is a master piece of propaganda:

Ukraine ends bloody battle for Mariupol, evacuates Azovstal fighters

Ukrainian fighters have ended their weeks-long defense of a besieged steel plant in the strategic port city of Mariupol, as hundreds of combatants — dozens of them seriously wounded — were evacuated from the complex Monday.
One has to read beyond 323 words of falsehood to find out, down in paragraph 7, what really has happened.

Moscow hasn’t yet publicly responded to the developments in Mariupol, which were described by Russian state media as an order from Ukrainian military command for its troops to “surrender.
Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, said 53 seriously wounded soldiers were taken to a hospital in Novoazovsk, a nearby town which is controlled by Russian-backed separatists. Another 211 were transported to another Russian-aligned village, Olenivka, she said. Moscow and Kyiv are brokering a prisoner swap to secure their release.

Malyar said officials were still working to rescue the remaining soldiers, though it is unclear how many are still inside. Ukrainian authorities said last week there were nearly 1,000 holdout fighters in the plant.

The f***ers finally gave up and surrendered unconditionally to the Russian forces as their only alternative was to decease within the next hours or days.

I am sure that the Russian authorities will apply a fine filter to determine who of those prisoners of war are allegeable for war crime prosecutions, de-nazification and a long stay in some north Siberian road builder camp.

There are also rumors of NATO personnel presence in the Azovstal catacombs. They will likely get to know the cellars of the famous Lubyanka building in Moscow before being exchanged in this or that deal with their home countries.

The rest will eventually be exchanged for Russian soldiers who are unfortunately held by the Ukrainian military.

———————————————
Another cauldron forming at Severodonetsk.

Over the past 24 hours, 265 AFU servicemen have laid down arms and surrendered in Azovstal, according to the Russian MOD;

Clashes between the AFU and Russian forces continue to the north of Popasnaya;
Russian forces claimed control over Novoselovka-2;

Russian forces entered the village of Novomikhailovka;

Russian forces are advancing in the northern and north-western outskirts of Lyman;

Clashes between the AFU and Russian forces continue on the outskirts of Severodonetsk;

Clashes between the AFU and Russian forces continue near Belogorovka;

Clashes between the AFU and Russian forces continue in the Vuhledar area;

Clashes between the AFU and Russian forces continue near Avdiivka.

———————
PS. I do get 24hr ban after every post Of this thread. Wonder why?

Re: Russo-ukraine War Update by owagbeba: 11:01pm On May 17, 2022
.

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