1. PDP Presidential aspirant Peter Obi attended the public announcement and supported Atiku to declare his Presidential ambition.

2. Just few days to PDP primary, aspirant Peter Obi stepped out of PDP Presidential primary and resigned membership.

3. Aspirant Atiku won PDP Presidential primary and was declared party flag bearer.

4. Peter Obi sent a congratulatory letter to Atiku.

5. Aspirant Obi crossed to Labor party. At its presidential primary another aspirant, Pat Utomi stepped down for Obi to win and become Labor party flag bearer.

Atiku has learnt from 2019 not to underestimate APC and its use of incumbent power to sweep opponents away. In particular, APC used cross-party alliance with SDP's Iyiola Omisore to edge Senator Adeleke out of gubernatorial victory in Osun.

SDP, Labor and APGA are strong in South.

Using strengths in Labor (his new party after PDP) and APGA (his old party before PDP), Obi can steer votes to Atiku and run him across the margins of victory should 2019 repeat itself.

Atiku is using one stone to kill two birds -
1. Dilute grass root politics in South so SDP does not become a formidable contender. Infact, SDP introduced Atiku to politics back in 1998.

He is using Obi to throw this kill. Hence Obi's actions lately.

2. Influence APC primary to nominate an underdog candidate.

APC Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu is from NE, same region with Atiku, and an ex-Chairman of PDP under Goodluck Jonathan, who is being wooed to cross from PDP into APC and enter primary race.

Now, Atiku must choose a Christian South for VP. He could end up calling Peter Obi to deputize for him, but he will not do so ahead of APC primary.

Net-Net, PDP is going for NE muslim/SE christian.

APC Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu is from NE, same region with Atiku, and an ex-Chairman of PDP under Goodluck Jonathan, who is being wooed to cross from PDP into APC and enter primary race.

APC already did their screening and Jonathan is not there.

How can Atiku pick Obi as VP in another party, have you read the new electoral bill amendment?

I think Nairaland now parade kindergartens as political analysts.

Peter Obi LP is a huge problem for Atiku and a very big plus for APC.

The SE votes will be very very low and a lot of factor will affect it.

—Some people will vote Peter Obi Labor party

—Some people will abscond from voting because there will be apathy

—Some people will vote for PDP because of the governors

—IPOB will declare sit at home and some won’t come out to vote. Only those that can be guaranteed security by the politicians.

In all, no matter how you read it, Atiku vote in the SE will be so so diluted to make any sensible difference.

Atiku will be a compound fool to select a SE VP. I will tip him to select a SS VP if he get political brain this time around.

Philipponzaghi:


APC already did their screening and Jonathan is not there.

How can Atiku pick Obi as VP in another party, have you read the new electoral bill amendment?

I think Nairaland now parade kindergartens as political analysts.

How can Obi cross into Labor, without delegates or any grass root structure in that party, and yet become its flag bearer?

Stop wondering how things are possibly done in Nigerian politics. Just pay attention to the intrigues, the law and its agreements mean nothing.

Philipponzaghi:
Peter Obi LP is a huge problem for Atiku and a very big plus for APC.

The SE votes will be very very low and a lot of factor will affect it.

—Some people will vote Peter Obi Labor party

—Some people will abscond from voting because there will be apathy

—Some people will vote for PDP because of the governors

—IPOB will declare sit at home and some won’t come out to vote. Only those that can be guaranteed security by the politicians.

In all, no matter how you read it, Atiku vote in the SE will be so so diluted to make any sensible difference.

Atiku will be a compound fool to select a SE VP. I will tip him to select a SS VP if he get political brain this time around.

Who told you SE votes will be very low? Peter Obi is on the ballot and we are mobilizing massively for him.

IPOB didn't boycott Anambra election, so it's when PO is on the ballot they will boycott.

If Labour is a disadvantage to PDP, Kwankwanso is also disadvantage to APC.

He will take NW votes that naturally goes to APC while Atiku will clear NE.

SW don't give bloc votes, another disadvantage to APC.

MetaPhysical:


How can Obi cross into Labor, without delegates or any grass root structure in that party, and yet become its flag bearer?

Stop wondering how things are possibly done in Nigerian politics. Just pay attention to the intrigues, the law and its agreements mean nothing.

The reason Obi was able to cross was because he did not contest in the party primaries. If he had contested and lost, he will not be able to be the presidential flagbearer of any party again according to the amended law.

You better read the amended electoral law to understand all these things.

Lol...watin b this

OFFICIAL336:

Who told you SE votes will be very low? Peter Obi is on the ballot and we are mobilizing massively for him.

IPOB didn't boycott Anambra election, so it's when PO is on the ballot they will boycott.

If Labour is a disadvantage to PDP, Kwankwanso is also disadvantage to APC.

He will take NW votes that naturally goes to APC while Atiku will clear NE.

SW don't give bloc votes, another disadvantage to APC.

Go and check the SW votes anytime a Yoruba man is on the ballot.

Check 1979 & 1983 —Awo got bloc vote

Check 1993 — Abiola got bloc vote

Check 1999 — Falae got bloc vote

Check 2003 — Obasanjo got bloc vote

SW will only give 55/45 when none of the top 2 candidates are Yorubas. Why are Nairaland parading political neophytes like this?

Which Kwakwanso in the North? Kwakwanso can only get Atiku voters votes and not the APC themselves.

Peter Obi winning SE massively for Labor party is a win for the APC. I hope you know your point only supported my arguments? The main goal is to water down the SE votes for PDP which is like now 90% reality.

As regards to IPOB boycott, check Anambra election turnout. Are you proud of that turnout? That was due to IPOb effect. If they churn out that turnout in presidential election then the SE votes will now be 3% instead of the earlier 5% Buhari claimed.

MetaPhysical:


How can Obi cross into Labor, without delegates or any grass root structure in that party, and yet become its flag bearer?

Stop wondering how things are possibly done in Nigerian politics. Just pay attention to the intrigues, the law and its agreements mean nothing.

You might be correct. Labour party already have internal leadership crisis. A big reason for obi to switch back to PDP

Why are you worried. Shebi the south refused to support south east?

JavaScript90:


You might be correct. Labour party already have internal leadership crisis. A big reason for obi to switch back to PDP

And you think Obi doesn't know this?

successmatters:


And you think Obi doesn't know this?

What I am saying is that the op analysis might be true. Obi might end up rejoining PDP as atiku running mate

Philipponzaghi:


Go and check the SW votes anytime a Yoruba man is on the ballot.

Check 1979 & 1983 —Awo got bloc vote

Check 1993 — Abiola got bloc vote

Check 1999 — Falae got bloc vote

Check 2003 — Obasanjo got bloc vote

SW will only give 55/45 when none of the top 2 candidates are Yorubas. Why are Nairaland parading political neophytes like this?

Which Kwakwanso in the North? Kwakwanso can only get Atiku voters votes and not the APC themselves.

Peter Obi winning SE massively for Labor party is a win for the APC. I hope you know your point only supported my arguments? The main goal is to water down the SE votes for PDP which is like now 90% reality.

As regards to IPOB boycott, check Anambra election turnout. Are you proud of that turnout? That was due to IPOb effect. If they churn out that turnout in presidential election then the SE votes will now be 3% instead of the earlier 5% Buhari claimed.

SW votes is not a threat to us.

We have the numbers to split SW votes. My polling unit is in Lagos and I'll vote for Peter Obi.

In my part of Lagos, we just elected an Eye Ndi Igbo to help us coordinate Igbos in the area.

The reason we are supporting Atiku and Kwankwanso is because they will piece Northern votes.

If Tinubu chooses a Christian VP, North East and North West will be shared by PDP and NNPP.

Tinubu can't get much votes in SS and SE.

If APC picks Northern candidate which SE APC is pushing for, South and NC will be open for Labour to take.

We calculated our moves before going to Labour party. We started playing politics before SW.

We are not inexperienced like our neighbors that think betraying their neighbor is political sophistication.

JavaScript90:


What I am saying is that the op analysis might be true. Obi might end up rejoining PDP as atiku running mate

Keep hoping, in the meantime contracts are going out as we pay billboard and handbill distributors for Peter Obi campaign, that's our own contribution to making Nigeria great again. We will sponsor his election for him.

JavaScript90:


What I am saying is that the op analysis might be true. Obi might end up rejoining PDP as atiku running mate

Is that possible?...

If YES, before or after the election?

successmatters:

Keep hoping, in the meantime contracts are going out as we pay billboard and handbill distributors for Peter Obi campaign, that's our own contribution to making Nigeria great again. We will sponsor his election for him.

Obviously as a competent and fellow igbo i will vote for him. But do you think that he can scale through and win?

MetaPhysical:
1. PDP Presidential aspirant Peter Obi attended the public announcement and supported Atiku to declare his Presidential ambition.

2. Just few days to PDP primary, aspirant Peter Obi stepped out of PDP Presidential primary and resigned membership.

3. Aspirant Atiku won PDP Presidential primary and was declared party flag bearer.

4. Peter Obi sent a congratulatory letter to Atiku.

5. Aspirant Obi crossed to Labor party. At its presidential primary another aspirant, Pat Utomi stepped down for Obi to win and become Labor party flag bearer.

Atiku has learnt from 2019 not to underestimate APC and its use of incumbent power to sweep opponents away. In particular, APC used cross-party alliance with SDP's Iyiola Omisore to edge Senator Adeleke out of gubernatorial victory in Osun.

SDP, Labor and APGA are strong in South.

Using strengths in Labor (his new party after PDP) and APGA (his old party before PDP), Obi can steer votes to Atiku and run him across the margins of victory should 2019 repeat itself.

Atiku is using one stone to kill two birds -
1. Dilute grass root politics in South so SDP does not become a formidable contender. Infact, SDP introduced Atiku to politics back in 1998.

He is using Obi to throw this kill. Hence Obi's actions lately.

2. Influence APC primary to nominate an underdog candidate.

APC Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu is from NE, same region with Atiku, and an ex-Chairman of PDP under Goodluck Jonathan, who is being wooed to cross from PDP into APC and enter primary race.

Now, Atiku must choose a Christian South for VP. He could end up calling Peter Obi to deputize for him, but he will not do so ahead of APC primary.

Net-Net, PDP is going for NE muslim/SE christian.

Hahahahaha okay ooo
I won't say anything

MetaPhysical:


How can Obi cross into Labor, without delegates or any grass root structure in that party, and yet become its flag bearer?

Stop wondering how things are possibly done in Nigerian politics. Just pay attention to the intrigues, the law and its agreements mean nothing.

The other factions of LP have already been threatening

DSC7:



Is that possible?...

If YES, before or after the election?

Don't really know how possible due to the new electoral law but I believe atiku will pick his running mate after apc primaries. Let us just wait till then

OFFICIAL336:

Who told you SE votes will be very low? Peter Obi is on the ballot and we are mobilizing massively for him.

IPOB didn't boycott Anambra election, so it's when PO is on the ballot they will boycott.

If Labour is a disadvantage to PDP, Kwankwanso is also disadvantage to APC.

He will take NW votes that naturally goes to APC while Atiku will clear NE.

SW don't give bloc votes, another disadvantage to APC.

nope
Atiku has never won His region...
Those guys don't even like him

Makes no sense for Atiku to choose a SE VP.

The SE is very weak politically.

If I were Atiku, I”ll choose a SS Igbo/Igboid to get all SS/SE votes. Even a VP from an Igbo-denying group like Ikwerres and Ikas will be seen by the Igbo voters as an Igbo vice presidency.

Is it possible for obi to cross carpet again?
Somebody told me this yesterday.
That there is an alliance between labour and pdp.
Also kwankwanso will pull tanbuwal move by next yr.

Philipponzaghi:


APC already did their screening and Jonathan is not there.

How can Atiku pick Obi as VP in another party, have you read the new electoral bill amendment?

I think Nairaland now parade kindergartens as political analysts.

Nairaland is becoming a collection of fools

Kyase:
nope
Atiku has never won His region...
Those guys don't even like him

Because Yaradua and Buhari were on the ballot. In 2023, he will be running against a SW Tijaniyya Moslem if Tinubu picks the ticket.

APC, NNPP and PDP will water down Northern votes.

excanny:
Makes no sense for Atiku to choose a SE VP.

The SE is very weak politically.

If I were Atiku, I”ll choose a SS Igbo/Igboid to get all SS/SE votes. Even a VP from an Igbo-denying group like Ikwerres and Ikas will be seen by the Igbo voters as an Igbo vice presidency.

Buhari won SW with 260k votes.

Atiku won Anambra with 490k votes.

SW is always the second option for VP behind SE.

Kyase:
nope
Atiku has never won His region...
Those guys don't even like him

There is no buhari this time around.
That's why apc have been having problem with who to represent them since few yrs ago.
With buhari in the picture, he did exceedingly well.
Now with a southerner, hmm.

There is a level to which inec can rig.

excanny:
Makes no sense for Atiku to choose a SE VP.

The SE is very weak politically.

If I were Atiku, I”ll choose a SS Igbo/Igboid to get all SS/SE votes. Even a VP from an Igbo-denying group like Ikwerres and Ikas will be seen by the Igbo voters as an Igbo vice presidency.

Not in 2022.
Igbos in SE will not accept any candidate that is not from SE.
You will be shocked how things have changed for most of us since 1999.
Amaechi or Wike will not get any vote in SE anymore than a Fulani or a Yoruba man would.
Infact because of Wike actions in Obiigbo and Ogbakor Ikwerre silence, there is a palpable Ikwerrephobia currently sweeping through SE.

Any party picking an Ikwerre candidate and hoping to gain SE votes have committed Political suicide.
Other than cash and carry politicians, the Igbo commoners have since moved on from the likes of Ikwerre and have even developed a palpable resentment for them.
Go to online platforms (Twitter and Facebook) and notice that majority of those happy with Wike loss are mostly Igbos.
Our relationship with Ikwerre people have deteriorated to a point of no return, Wike and Amaechi can wear Isiagu and okpu mmee all they like and speak Igbo all they like, it will not change anything.


PDP has already lost SE as it stands, but to pick an Igboid VP outside SE will be like a hammer to the last nail of PDP coffin in the SE.

OFFICIAL336:

Because Yaradua and Buhari were on the ballot. In 2023, he will be running against a SW Tijaniyya Moslem if Tinubu picks the ticket.

APC, NNPP and PDP will water down Northern votes.

You still aren't getting it, but I will just keep quiet ......

OFFICIAL336:

Buhari won SW with 260k votes.

Atiku won Anambra with 490k votes.

SW is always the second option for VP behind SE.

Yeah. Either SW or SS if he’s really serious to win the presidency.

He should stay away from the SE. Nothing there of benefits to a potential winner.

excanny:
Makes no sense for Atiku to choose a SE VP.

The SE is very weak politically.

If I were Atiku, I”ll choose a SS Igbo/Igboid to get all SS/SE votes. Even a VP from an Igbo-denying group like Ikwerres and Ikas will be seen by the Igbo voters as an Igbo vice presidency.

Lol don't deceive yourself. Didn't you see how happy igbos was when will lost? Did igbos support the igbo denying wike from ikwerre?

Well assuming obi is not on the ballot I will vote atiku if he chose okowa of Delta State. At least that one is proud of his igboness.

South east is not politically weak. During elections prior to the buhari manipulation, south east have always giving millions of vote from each of the states except ebonyi state. Atiku got more votes from South East than his native north east