SCENARIO 1:

If APC looks Southwest, it means the VP will come from the north and the SE and SS will be out of its number 1 and 2 equations. Thus both regions will have no choice but to be with PDP.

The North (NW, NE and NC) will all go to PDP because the northerners will not be foolish to settle for a star (Vice presidency) when they can go for the moon (the presidency)

OUTCOME: Atiku wins

SCENARIO 2:

If Atiku picks a powerful politician as his VP from the SE or SS, both region will be at a position where they will be left with no choice but to support PDP.

Also, naturally, the North (NW, NE and NC) will all go to Atiku because the northerners will not be foolish to settle for a star (Vice presidency) when they can go for the moon (the presidency).

OUTCOME: Atiku wins.

The recent decision of Apc to go south is all emotions no strategy! By so doing, they have effectively made Atiku Abubakar the next President of Nigeria.

With the decision of 11 Apc govs advising Buhari to go south, Akere and his naive Yoruba govs and irrendentists are celebrating. They're celebrating pyrrhic victory! They're celebrating the emergence of Atiku. While those 11 Apc govs are not speaking the mind of the average Nigerian/northern voters for whom "blood is thicker than water". Congratulations Atiku Abubakar. The only game changer may be the emergence of a Tinubu in Apc so that the issue with the average northern voter (religion) is neutralized.

OP you made a wonderful write-up but later derailed by bringing Tinubu into the equation. The recent outburst of Tinubu over how he made Buhari the president has closed all chances he has to clitnch the APC ticket. If you listen attentively to Senator Abdullahi Adamu's statement yesterday, you will know that it is bye bye to Tinubu's ambition because the fulani man does not forgive.

Jagaban will win.
He got strongholds in the North West and South West.
Votes in NE and NC will be shared between APC and PDP.
Even half of South South will vote for him.
In SE, Ebonyi, Imo and Abia will vote massively for APC.
Anambra will vote Obi
While Enugu will vote PDP.
@op, Northern Political Elites are smart.
The recent move by Northern governors to unianimously zone the presidency to Southern Nigeria in the spirit of fairness and reinforcing the country's unity is a wise decision.
Cuz if North think that they got the population and the political prowess to win the presidency.
Then it way lead to many political uprisings in the South.
Niger delta militancy, Oduduwa and Biafra agitation will get a boost.
And guess what?, it may led to Nigeria's break up.
I am, and I am in support of the political genius, Asiwaju.
I want him to replicate the Lagos blueprint in the National Level.

The North only need 'ONE' southern region to win but they have 2 already..

Sogodinho, seunmsg, legendhero and ramdeuter what do you guys think?

ThinkSmarter:
Jagaban will win.
He got strongholds in the North West and South West.
Votes in NE and NC will be shared between APC and PDP.
Even half of South South will vote for him.
In SE, Ebonyi, Imo and Abia will vote massively for APC.
Anambra will vote Obi
While Enugu will vote PDP.
@op, Northern Political Elites are smart.
The recent move by Northern governors to unianimously zone the presidency to Southern Nigeria in the spirit of fairness and reinforcing the country's unity is a wise decision.
Cuz if North think that they got the population and the political prowess to win the presidency.
Then it way lead to many political uprisings in the South.
Niger delta militancy, Oduduwa and Biafra agitation will get a boost.
And guess what?, it may led to Nigeria's break up.
I am, and I am in support of the political genius, Asiwaju.
I want him to replicate the Lagos blueprint in the National Level.

yoruba emotional statistical delusions,

ThinkSmarter:
Jagaban will win.
He got strongholds in the North West and South West.
Votes in NE and NC will be shared between APC and PDP.
Even half of South South will vote for him.
In SE, Ebonyi, Imo and Abia will vote massively for APC.
Anambra will vote Obi
While Enugu will vote PDP.
@op, Northern Political Elites are smart.
The recent move by Northern governors to unianimously zone the presidency to Southern Nigeria in the spirit of fairness and reinforcing the country's unity is a wise decision.
Cuz if North think that they got the population and the political prowess to win the presidency.
Then it way lead to many political uprisings in the South.
Niger delta militancy, Oduduwa and Biafra agitation will get a boost.
And guess what?, it may led to Nigeria's break up.
I am, and I am in support of the political genius, Asiwaju.
I want him to replicate the Lagos blueprint in the National Level.

You are only decieving yourself, the North is only decieving yorubas again, they have their candidate and will vote their Son

Major wars are won on paper (logistics, design, preparation and strategy). Same also goes for politics.

The only difference is there is no permutation in war but elimination. Politics is about permutation to eliminate the enemy.

Hausa alwy support them people.and north vote is more than both south west and south east. Blive dis ATIKU Wil emerge

muyico:
Hausa alwy support them people.and north vote is more than both south west and south east. Blive dis ATIKU Wil emerge

Obi and kwakkwaso will split atiku vote .Tinubu will win

kelvinginzie:


Obi and kwakkwaso will split atiku vote .Tinubu will win

Both Atiku and your imaginary Tinubu (if he does clinch the APC ticket ) stand no chance in the South, na only SW go vote for Tinubu and even that won't be a bloc vote cause the SW traditionally doesn't give bloc votes like the other regions.

The real test for PDP and APC will be in the North

The states Atiku will win in the entire north are Taraba, Adamawa, and by extension Bauchi.

Book this space down

NB: that's if APC field Tinubu.

Economically, Nigeria has an expenditure problem not revenue. So why not start with a president with a proven track-record of managing resources? Peter Obi is sitting competently ahead of everyone else.

..with Osinbajo or Tinubu..

APC has a very good chance.

Babzrockman:
The states Atiku will win in the entire north are Taraba, Adamawa, and by extension Bauchi.

Book this space down

NB: that's if APC field Tinubu.

The next election would be won and lost in the South. Majority of the votes in the North would go to Atiku but what happens in the SE, SS and SW would determine the winner

So you think a moon is bigger than a Star
Kindly go back to your elementary Geography.

Atiku is overrated. APC has a better chance of remaining in power. Who says Atiku will win all the northern votes? Atiku is not Buhari who has cult followership.

If APC field Tinubu then it's a sure win for Atiku because northerners will always support their own


Just like this


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8VaDIzRIBo

SOURCE: FANZ TALK FOOTBALL

Do not neglect this third force "NNPP".

Northerners never neglect their own, Lets not forget how PRP performed in 2019.

Atiku's emergence ruined any chances of yoruba presidency. Peter Obi moving to labour party finally burried any hope of yoruba presidency. Atiku will win massively in the north. Obi will opress the Yoruba aspirant in the south

slivertongue:


The next election would be won and lost in the South. Majority of the votes in the North would go to Atiku but what happens in the SE, SS and SW would determine the winner

Atiku cannot win majority of the Northern votes bro especially in the Northwest.

Babzrockman:


Atiku cannot win majority of the Northern votes bro especially in the Northwest.

Buhari, Kwankwaso and Atiku are the three political forces in the North. With Buhari not on the ballot, with Kwankwaso and Atiku running on NNPP and PDP, APC will loss millions of vote in NW and NE.
Hence if APC cannot penerate PDP stronghold of SS/ SE, Atiku will win 2023 election.

chinjo:
OP you made a wonderful write-up but later derailed by bringing Tinubu into the equation. The recent outburst of Tinubu over how he made Buhari the president has closed all chances he has to clitnch the APC ticket. If you listen attentively to Senator Abdullahi Adamu's statement yesterday, you will know that it is bye bye to Tinubu's ambition because the fulani man does not forgive.

Tinubu said no wrong

U mean Atiku holds the trump card? But trump lost the last election in the US are u indirectly saying Atiku would lose?

MikeofAfrica:

Buhari, Kwankwaso and Atiku are the three political forces in the North. With Buhari not on the ballot, with Kwankwaso and Atiku running on NNPP and PDP, APC will loss millions of vote in NW and NE.
Hence if APC cannot penerate PDP stronghold of SS/ SE, Atiku will win 2023 election.

I don't know of NE but u see NW Atiku is never a force to reckon.

NW is my base

Babzrockman:


I don't know of NE but u see NW Atiku is never a force to reckon.

NW is my base

Atiku was not a force in NW because he ran against Buhari from NW in 2019. If 2023 election is between him and Tinubu, many people in NW who voted Buhari in 2019 will vote Atiku.
For NW voters, tribe and religion decides their voting pattern.