This my analysis for the general election like I did for the apc primary election.

Apc or pdp will win 2023 general election that is the bitter truth based on the factors.

Presidency power.

Buhari/cabinet members will prefer an apc aspirant taking over from him to avoid witch hunts or probes but If atiku win is fine by him aswell because of the fulani tie, atiku govt will likely not probe him.

Money

As it stand currently in nigeria, Money plays a huge role in nigeria politics and election.
With the level of poverty and hunger in this country people will collect money on election day to vote who pay them....we can't blame them it is what it is.

Tribal sentiment

When campaign start proper politicians will use tribe sentiment to devalue one another and this where I fear for peter obi.......alot people forget only 20% eligible voters are on social media while the remain 80% listen to radio and watch TV ..... we can't easily debunk or question what they air.....PDP has AIT while APC has TVC.
The apc plans to dig out all nnamdi kanu posts made against other tribe, air it during campaigns grounds, on radio to discredit Peter obi.
Politics is a very dirty game and trust me this people will go to any lengths to dig out things they can use against one another.

Religion

This playing out already regarding choosen vp ...both the south and north will vote based on Religion.
Atiku will have an edge here because of we all know the north has more voters than any other regions.

Governors.

This are small emperors who lord over there states, to win the presidential election you need the backing of governors on your side. As it stand tinubu has an advantage here due to the fact apc has more governors.

Business moguls and top entrepreneurs.

We always over look this guys but trust me they matter to some extent in nigeria politics.
They have there interest to protect and most times they finance campaigns of aspirant.

For me tinubu has an edge due to the romance with dangote and otedola who are like the lead of this set of people.

Power that be.

This are the people who actually sit down to decide things behind the scene....obj,babaginda,Abdulsalami,Gowon etc this ex generals you need there backings to win election in nigeria.

Here every aspirant are on the same ground because I can't predict who they back honestly.

The masses.

Any politician banking on nigeria masses to vote for him without giving out money will end up having a heart attack.

I laugh anytime I here people say the masses will decide....can hausa,Igbo and yoruba agree on something without having hidden uterior motives,suspecting and betrayals??

The problem is we have just 3 major tribes and most cases 2 tribe will combine to betray one if there any agreement.

Banking on polls on social media were less than 200k people are voting is unrealistic.

As far as am concern the masses will vote for highest bidder come 2023......there will be lot of vote buying.
Don't be deceive into thinking they will collect money and vote who they want.........in the last election in edo, voters have to raise up ballot paper for agent to confirm before payment....politician aiint foolish.

Lastly we the youth.

I know we the youth want to take this country back and most are backing Obi. we face two challenges two actualize that.
1.poverty
2.Northerners/religion.

Poverty
With level of poverty in the country obi doesn't have a chance just yet people are too hungry to wait for his hope messages and ignore money right before them.

Northerners/religion.

Nnamdi kanu have destroyed alot of things with his post .....it will be almost impossible for the Northerners to accept Obi ....he needs there religious leaders,emirs ,politician and rich people to back him and honestly I dont see that happening just yet.

2023 is almost here and for me the battle is between APC and PDP.

People can only try with LP but I don't see a win for them.( no harming in trying for LP... impossibility is nothing )

This is my analysis.....thanks.

Time will tell. Make the election just come sng go quick quick joor

You cannot accurately predict the outcome of the general election until the major candidates pick their running mates.

I'm coming

Running mates has not been picked.
Campaign manifestos are not yet out.
People will still decamp based on trends.
So keep your analysis for now.

sonature1:
You cannot accurately predict the outcome of the general election until the major candidates pick their running mates.

Am no predicting just analysing based on the factors I highlighted.

This factors matter with or without the running mate choosen.

Risentouch:
Running mates has not been picked.
Campaign manifestos are not yet out.
People will still decamp based on trends.
So keep your analysis for now.

Very cheap excuse my friend.

The main focus are the flag bearer.....the factors I highlighted are constant.

Those are strictly your opinion.

You should not be marketing defeatism...

Contradiction is not a good thing: On one hand you built an avalanche of reasons why Obi wouldn't win; on the other you ended with the remark that impossibility is nothing ..

Which one do we take?

Granted there daunting odds, but Peter Obi can win this election if he works hard.

Peter Obi is not Nnamdi Kanu.

Kanu is under custody so stop spreading negative and divisive vibes.

Shekau is or was from the North...If his terrorist killings and acts did not hinder Buhari from becoming president, why will you from a certain part of the South chose to disseminate hatred and bigotry?

U try small, religion and tribe sentiment will go a long way in determining the outcome. Only 5million nigerians are on twitter, 2.9 on NL, Most of these people don't have pvc, so their opinions are of little or no effect. Let campaign start and u will see huge number of people trooping behind apc and pdp

maestroferddi:
Those are strictly your opinion.

You should not be marketing defeatism...

Contradiction is not a good thing: On one hand you built an avalanche of reasons why Obi wouldn't win; on the other you ended with the remark that impossibility is nothing ..

Which one do we take?

Granted there daunting odds, but Peter Obi can win this election if he works hard.

Peter Obi is not Nnamdi Kanu.

Kanu is under custody so stop spreading negative and divisive vibes.

Shekau is or was from the North...If his terrorist killings and acts did not hinder Buhari from becoming president, why will you from a certain part of the South chose to disseminate hatred and bigotry?

See let be sincere here......Peter Obi is a Igbo project, tinubu is a yoruba project ,atiku is hausa/ fulani project.

With this you can deduce sentiment already.

Godoverevery:

Very cheap excuse my friend.

The main focus are the flag bearer.....the factors I highlighted are constant.

Oga reserve your beer parlor analysis till the time is due for it.

Anyway anything to de-market is highly welcome.
Please thanks for the PR and open more threads