VoteTinubu2023:
Nice Analysis. But I believe Atiku will win Anambra though Obi will weaken his margin.

Also, Why do you think Tinubu will not max out Lagos? I believe a +400k marginal vote is possible in Lagos state. Remember that this is Tinubu himself on the ballot, footsoldiers will be energised and ready to work for him.

Tinubu should get 800k-1.2m in Lagos. PDP + Labour gets 400k-800k



BTW.....Remember to Vote Tinubu 2023.

Vote APC in 2023 Presidential elections

God bless Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

garfield1:


Honestly I think tinubu will get bloc votes from lagos but an not too sure.I am only talking about states I am cocksure.but stats shows that anytime a Yoruba is on the ballot be it awo,abiola or falae and even obj,lagos delivers at least a million.infact,gej and yaradua got over a million in lagos...but worse case scenario will be tinubu 1 million, labour 600k,pdp 400k.if tinubu goes extreme,he might get close to 2 million after all lagos has the highest voters in the region of 7 mil

garfield1:
Katsina: this is buhari's state and governor masari is totally in charge.the insecurity situation viz a viz banditry makes it dangerous for the opposition to penetrate here.obi has no chance here,governor masari is fully behind BAT and will heavily influence bloc votes for tinubu.tinubu will win with nothing less than 500,000 margin...

Zamfara: just like katsina,the state is heavily affected by banditry and therefore the electorate is at the mercy of the state government.ex governor yari,senator marafa and senator sani yerima have all reconciled with governor matawalle and ready to humiliate atiku.atiku wont see 25% here.tinubu will win with at least 400,000 margin...

Oyo/Ogun/osun/kwara: at least one of these states will give tinubu bloc votes with a winning margin of 500,000 as they gave abiola and false.

Anambra: this state gave atiku bloc votes in 2019.they gave gej in 2011 and 2015.they always go kamikaze against apc and will go this time for obi.obi might get more than a million votes here.apc and pdp won't see his back..

Enugu/IMO: one of these two states will also give obi bloc votes but apc and pdp should get 25% in IMO.

Delta:this state gave atiku his second highest votes in 2019 and with okowa as running mate,it will still replicate itself but they are obstacles on the way.the pdp in delta is divided between ibori/okowa camp.in delta north,okowa has alienated the ika people from his anioma brothers.senator nwaoboshi the great oracle of ibusa alongside victor ochei etc will battle okowa to a standstill and limit his influence to ika.in delta central,omo agege is in charge.he knows that his guber bid depends on an apc victory.he might just overrun urhobo land.in delta south,warri/itsekiri axis is controlled by ejele who is loyal to okowa but the itsekiri are also sympathetic to the Yoruba cause and APC has a lot of bigwigs here...
In ijaw axis,tompolo,otuaro and senator manager are angry with okowa.orubebe has joined apc and chief Clark has rejected atiku and okowa and will work for tinubu so the traditional bloc votes here may not be forthcoming.in the isoko axis,Joel Thomas who is going for senate might deliver isoko for tinubu.if things go well,okowa should get close to a million here but obi should get 30%

Yobe:pdp might not get 25% here.this state always buries pdp alongside borno and with a kanuri going to be running mate to tinubu,another humiliation awaits atiku.he will lose with at least 400k margin.

Borno: I dont need to say much.with zulum and shettima heavily siding tinubu and with one of them likely going to be vp,tinubu will get over a million here.voting doesnt take place here,votes are simply allocated.borno and yobe will decide atiku's fate....


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Simeonjoe1:
As of 2 month ago I use to underrate obi but currently now the guy is getting bloc vote from all SE state 80% with a massive turn out. I won't be surprised if the SE turnout is the same or even more than the SW.

Oyo,Osun and kwara fit give tinubu bloc but you see that Lagos he will win but not massively compare to other SW state.

Adamawa and other NE is bloc for Atiku

PaChukwudi44:
You just posted your electoral fantasy

VoteTinubu2023:
Nice Analysis. But I believe Atiku will win Anambra though Obi will weaken his margin.

Also, Why do you think Tinubu will not max out Lagos? I believe a +400k marginal vote is possible in Lagos state. Remember that this is Tinubu himself on the ballot, footsoldiers will be energised and ready to work for him.

Tinubu should get 800k-1.2m in Lagos. PDP + Labour gets 400k-800k



BTW.....Remember to Vote Tinubu 2023.

Vote APC in 2023 Presidential elections



God bless Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

garfield1:
Katsina: this is buhari's state and governor masari is totally in charge.the insecurity situation viz a viz banditry makes it dangerous for the opposition to penetrate here.obi has no chance here,governor masari is fully behind BAT and will heavily influence bloc votes for tinubu.tinubu will win with nothing less than 500,000 margin...

Zamfara: just like katsina,the state is heavily affected by banditry and therefore the electorate is at the mercy of the state government.ex governor yari,senator marafa and senator sani yerima have all reconciled with governor matawalle and ready to humiliate atiku.atiku wont see 25% here.tinubu will win with at least 400,000 margin...

Oyo/Ogun/osun/kwara: at least one of these states will give tinubu bloc votes with a winning margin of 500,000 as they gave abiola and false.

Anambra: this state gave atiku bloc votes in 2019.they gave gej in 2011 and 2015.they always go kamikaze against apc and will go this time for obi.obi might get more than a million votes here.apc and pdp won't see his back..

Enugu/IMO: one of these two states will also give obi bloc votes but apc and pdp should get 25% in IMO.

Delta:this state gave atiku his second highest votes in 2019 and with okowa as running mate,it will still replicate itself but they are obstacles on the way.the pdp in delta is divided between ibori/okowa camp.in delta north,okowa has alienated the ika people from his anioma brothers.senator nwaoboshi the great oracle of ibusa alongside victor ochei etc will battle okowa to a standstill and limit his influence to ika.in delta central,omo agege is in charge.he knows that his guber bid depends on an apc victory.he might just overrun urhobo land.in delta south,warri/itsekiri axis is controlled by ejele who is loyal to okowa but the itsekiri are also sympathetic to the Yoruba cause and APC has a lot of bigwigs here...
In ijaw axis,tompolo,otuaro and senator manager are angry with okowa.orubebe has joined apc and chief Clark has rejected atiku and okowa and will work for tinubu so the traditional bloc votes here may not be forthcoming.in the isoko axis,Joel Thomas who is going for senate might deliver isoko for tinubu.if things go well,okowa should get close to a million here but obi should get 30%

Yobe:pdp might not get 25% here.this state always buries pdp alongside borno and with a kanuri going to be running mate to tinubu,another humiliation awaits atiku.he will lose with at least 400k margin.

Borno: I dont need to say much.with zulum and shettima heavily siding tinubu and with one of them likely going to be vp,tinubu will get over a million here.voting doesnt take place here,votes are simply allocated.borno and yobe will decide atiku's fate....


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Ejimatic
Kyase
Frowland
Helinues
Majamatic
Raumdeuter
Metaphysical
Seunmsg
Seun
Okoroawusa
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triple996:
OBITUARY

McCoy662:

Also rock cannot be smelling pee pee abeg.
The smell of this pee is only restricted to iragbiji tiwn

Olaoluwa122:
No state among Oyo Ogun Kwara Osun...Will give tinubu block vote in difference of 500k...Too much Canadian loud is not good for health

garfield1:


You are not wanted here.cc efewestern

garfield1:
Katsina: this is buhari's state and governor masari is totally in charge.the insecurity situation viz a viz banditry makes it dangerous for the opposition to penetrate here.obi has no chance here,governor masari is fully behind BAT and will heavily influence bloc votes for tinubu.tinubu will win with nothing less than 500,000 margin...

Zamfara: just like katsina,the state is heavily affected by banditry and therefore the electorate is at the mercy of the state government.ex governor yari,senator marafa and senator sani yerima have all reconciled with governor matawalle and ready to humiliate atiku.atiku wont see 25% here.tinubu will win with at least 400,000 margin...

Oyo/Ogun/osun/kwara: at least one of these states will give tinubu bloc votes with a winning margin of 500,000 as they gave abiola and false.

Anambra: this state gave atiku bloc votes in 2019.they gave gej in 2011 and 2015.they always go kamikaze against apc and will go this time for obi.obi might get more than a million votes here.apc and pdp won't see his back..

Enugu/IMO: one of these two states will also give obi bloc votes but apc and pdp should get 25% in IMO.

Delta:this state gave atiku his second highest votes in 2019 and with okowa as running mate,it will still replicate itself but they are obstacles on the way.the pdp in delta is divided between ibori/okowa camp.in delta north,okowa has alienated the ika people from his anioma brothers.senator nwaoboshi the great oracle of ibusa alongside victor ochei etc will battle okowa to a standstill and limit his influence to ika.in delta central,omo agege is in charge.he knows that his guber bid depends on an apc victory.he might just overrun urhobo land.in delta south,warri/itsekiri axis is controlled by ejele who is loyal to okowa but the itsekiri are also sympathetic to the Yoruba cause and APC has a lot of bigwigs here...
In ijaw axis,tompolo,otuaro and senator manager are angry with okowa.orubebe has joined apc and chief Clark has rejected atiku and okowa and will work for tinubu so the traditional bloc votes here may not be forthcoming.in the isoko axis,Joel Thomas who is going for senate might deliver isoko for tinubu.if things go well,okowa should get close to a million here but obi should get 30%

Yobe:pdp might not get 25% here.this state always buries pdp alongside borno and with a kanuri going to be running mate to tinubu,another humiliation awaits atiku.he will lose with at least 400k margin.

Borno: I dont need to say much.with zulum and shettima heavily siding tinubu and with one of them likely going to be vp,tinubu will get over a million here.voting doesnt take place here,votes are simply allocated.borno and yobe will decide atiku's fate....


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Ejimatic
Kyase
Frowland
Helinues
Majamatic
Raumdeuter
Metaphysical
Seunmsg
Seun
Okoroawusa
Ojiofor
Cajal
Esseite
Tinubuadvocate
Kyase
Jrusky
Jaxxy
Moferere
Warriaproko

VoteTinubu2023:

He is "Son of the soil". If Buhari can do about +200k marginal votes in Lagos in 2019 after his underwhelming performance in his first term. Tinubu should do minimum of +400k minimum. It can even go as high as +650k.

My only fear is that churches should steer clear out of this politics so they don't make SW voters apprehensive of Muslim-Muslim ticket. Tinubu needs to max out SW far more than Buhari did in 2015.

Oyo State gave Buhari the highest marginal votes in 2015 and it wasn't up to +350k I think. Imagine that.


BTW.....Remember to Vote Tinubu 2023.

Vote APC in 2023 Presidential elections

God bless Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Frigga13:
Quit dreaming and hallucinating at once

Tomek09:

In conclusion

ejimatic:
. Good prediction! My reservation however is on Enugu and Anambra.Both states under PDP in 2015 and 2019 did not have a win margin of 1milion vote each neither can they do so for Obi under "Structureless" and "stateless" LP.

Tomek09:

What's the position of PDP with all their structures in the just concluded Ekiti Election??

ejimatic:
Very worrisome! I expect lanskide victory for APC in the SW regardless of party differences..OBJ enjoyed this in 2003.

Tomek09:

Electoral outcome has nothing to do with structure. APGA had none when Obi contested with it for the first time in 2003 in Anambra.

Simeonjoe1:
As of 2 month ago I use to underrate obi but currently now the guy is getting bloc vote from all SE state 80% with a massive turn out. I won't be surprised if the SE turnout is the same or even more than the SW.

Oyo,Osun and kwara fit give tinubu bloc but you see that Lagos he will win but not massively compare to other SW state.

Adamawa and other NE is bloc for Atiku