Except Tinubu supporters are banking on rigging, I want them to systematically state regions and states that will vote Tinubu in 2023.

Kwankwaso has conquered Northwest where Tinubu was banking on so much which made him even send private jet to bring Senator Shekarau to his house to beg him to settle his rift with Ganduje.

The Northeast is gone with Atiku. Except for maybe Yobe and Borno. It is instructive to state that Christians in this region seem to be leaning towards Obi candidacy.

The North Central with Christian majority seem to be leaning towards Obi especially after an APC government has supervised the worst carnage their region has experienced in history. Only Kwara and Niger may vote Tinubu in this region; but when you remember men like Saraki and Babaginda Aliyu are from these states, you would agree that PDP will not perform badly and therefore it will not be a clean sweep for Tinubu.

Then the Southeast and Southsouth are gone with Peter Obi and Atiku on a ratio of 70:30. Before you argue it, if Edo people, who are the only people that had the likelihood of voting Tinubu because of Oshiomole, are supporting Peter Obi to the extent that the state governor had to acknowledge it, then I do not think any serious political strategist should write off what is going on there. Need I speak of Southeast?

Only the Southwest holds a prospect for Tinubu. But even that is 70% at best. Because when you factor in the fact that half of Lagos voters are non-indigenes, nay Igbo, who are not best fans of Tinubu, and also considering the results of previous presidential elections from the state, then you’d admit that if Tinubu gets up to 60% of votes in Lagos, then it’s a good showing for him. Another factor to consider in the Southwest is the fact that the Muslim/Muslim ticket which Tinubu is understandably preparing to fly, will be highly unpopular amongst Yoruba Christians who might vote against Tinubu ( no sane and objective strategist will dismiss this fact). However, I must note that Tinubu’s vote buying strategy, which was test run in Ekiti, will be highly effective in the Southwest and as such will swell the number of votes he will get in this region.

Lastly, there is the factor of youth revolution sweeping across Social Media and even the streets across southern Nigeria and some parts of the north in support of Peter Obi. As much as these old politicians would want to dismiss what is going on as mere online shenanigans that “there’s no polling unit on Twitter”, trust me when I tell you that deep down they are concerned; especially when you recall that Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, Volodomr Zelensky of Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron of France, etc, all won their elections in a similar pattern.

All these are facts and representation of reality devoid of sentiments and biases and I would expect respondents to do same without resorting to insults and gutter language.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

Mynd44
Lalasticlala

those secretly supporting tinubu are more than APC

Peter Obi Presidency is all Nigerians need right now. Nigeria's situation is critical at the moment, and the worst thing that would happen to us is for extremely corrupt and business-as-usual type of politicians like Atiku and Tinubu that lavish money on cronies and other corrupt practices to win. Peter Obi who didn't spend shishi to emerge, someone who already hates waste and corruption will definitely ensure that resources are judiciously used for the masses benefit. By cutting out waste, Peter Obi government would be able to re-channel the resources to areas that need it. 90 % of us here in the south-south support him wholeheartedly.

Penguin2:
Except Tinubu supporters are banking on rigging, I want them to systematically state regions and states that will vote Tinubu in 2023.

Kwankwaso has conquered Northwest where Tinubu was banking on so much which made him even send private jet to bring Senator Shekarau to his house to beg him to settle his rift with Ganduje.

The Northeast is gone with Atiku. Except for maybe Yobe and Borno. It is instructive to state that Christians in this region seem to be leaning towards Obi candidacy.

The North Central with Christian majority seem to be leaning towards Obi especially after an APC government has supervised the worst carnage their region has experienced in history. Only Kwara and Niger may vote Tinubu in this region; but when you remember men like Saraki and Babaginda Aliyu are from these states, you would agree that PDP will not perform badly and therefore it will not be a clean sweep for Tinubu.

Then the Southeast and Southsouth are gone with Peter Obi and Atiku on a ratio of 70:30. Before you argue it, if Edo people, who are the only people that had the likelihood of voting Tinubu because of Oshiomole, are supporting Peter Obi to the extent that the state governor had to acknowledge it, then I do not think any serious political strategist should write off what is going on there. Need I speak of Southeast?

Only the Southwest holds a prospect for Tinubu. But even that is 70% at best. Because when you factor in the fact that half of Lagos voters are non-indigenes, nay Igbo, who are not best fans of Tinubu, and also considering the results of previous presidential elections from the state, then you’d admit that if Tinubu gets up to 60% of votes in Lagos, then it’s a good showing for him. Another factor to consider in the Southwest is the fact that the Muslim/Muslim ticket which Tinubu is understandably preparing to fly, will be highly unpopular amongst Yoruba Christians who might vote against Tinubu ( no sane and objective strategist will dismiss this fact). However, I must note that Tinubu’s vote buying strategy, which was test run in Ekiti, will be highly effective in the Southwest and as such will swell the number of votes he will get in this region.

Lastly, there is the factor of youth revolution sweeping across Social Media and even the streets across southern Nigeria and some parts of the north in support of Peter Obi. As much as these old politicians would want to dismiss what is going on as mere online shenanigans that “there’s no polling unit on Twitter”, trust me when I tell you that deep down they are concerned; especially when you recall that Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, Volodomr Zelensky of Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron of France, etc, all won their elections in a similar pattern.

All these are facts and representation of reality devoid of sentiments and biases and I would expect respondents to do same without resorting to insults and gutter language.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

Mynd44
Lalasticlala

some times when I see the political analysis of some people here on nairaland, I just smile and blame ignorance

By the time the result start trickling in, you go no say "A Lion doesn't concern himself with the opinions of goats"


Tilumbu is ya father and Lord.

Flattens go cry blood

From South west that votes 60/40

There are two portions of voters in every region in Nigeria

The educated voters and the "not so educated" voters

The percentage they are to each other varies in every region.
For example, it's like 10% educated and 90% uneducated in the Northwest, and 25% educated and 75% uneducated in the Southwest.


Now back to your question:

Amongst educated Northwesterners

Kwakwaso will get 60%

Atiku will get 20%

Tinubu will get 13%

Rest will get 7%

Kwakwaso will do well here because he needs very little money to mobilize the voters as most of these voters are tech savvy and have strong opinions. However, these people only make up 10% of the voting block

Non educated voters

Kwakwaso will get 40%

Atiku should get 25%

Tinubu will get 30%

Others 5%

Tinubu will do better than Atiku because Apc have better party structure and finances to influence electorates in the North West.

To be continued.

You guys will come up with beer parlor analysis and call it facts. Am not a fan / supporter of Tinubu but Peter Obi can't get up to 25% of what Tinubu will get in the General election.

In your cupboard

Asiwaju Tilumbu would win .
You folks said more than this before the APC primary .

Iamgrey5:
There are two portions of voters in every region in Nigeria

The educated voters and the "not so educated" voters

The percentage they are to each other varies in every region.
For example, it's like 10% educated and 90% uneducated in the Northwest, and 25% educated and 75% uneducated in the Southwest.


Now back to your question:

Amongst educated Northwesterners

Kwakwaso will get 60%

Atiku will get 20%

Tinubu will get 13%

Rest will get 7%

Kwakwaso will do well here because he needs very money to mobilize and votes as most of these voters are tech savvy. However, these people only make 10% of the voting block

Non educated voters

Kwakwaso will get 40%

Atiku should get 25%

Tinubu will get 30%

Others 5%

Tinubu will do better than Atiku because Apc have better party structure and finances to influence electorates.

To be continued.

swap atiku number with kwanwaso own in northwest

Kwanwaso can only win Kano, kaduna kastina, sokoto,kebbi,zamfara would go atiku Mai gida way

Amotolongbo:
some times when I see the political analysis of some people here on nairaland, I just smile and blame ignorance

Watch Kano people respond to questions about 2023 elections and you’d find out you are the one who is actually ignorant.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSwZ-C65Xq0

In the Southwest

Amongst uneducated

Tinubu get 70%

Atiku 25%

Others 5%


Educated

Tinubu 50%

Atiku 10%

Others 40%

Penguin2:


Watch Kano people respond to questions about 2023 elections and you’d find out you are the one who is actually ignorant.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSwZ-C65Xq0

Where are the Kano people?

How many people live in Kano?

VaginaMiners:
Asiwaju Tilumbu would win .
You folks said more than this before the APC primary .

this is not delegates system where you buy out the most

How many common man can you buy

Truthisunique2:
swap atiku number with kwanwaso own in northwest

Kwanwaso can only win Kano, kaduna kastina, sokoto,kebbi,zamfara would go atiku Mai gida way

Kano, Kaduna kastina is where 60% of North West votes are.

Subsea:
Peter Obi Presidency is all Nigerians need right now. Nigeria's situation is critical at the moment, and the worst thing that would happen to us is for extremely corrupt and business-as-usual type of politicians like Atiku and Tinubu that lavish money on cronies and other corrupt practices to win. Peter Obi who didn't spend shishi to emerge, someone who already hates waste and corruption will definitely ensure that resources are judiciously used for the masses benefit. By cutting out waste, Peter Obi government would be able to re-channel the resources to areas that need it. 90 % of us here in the south-south support him wholeheartedly.

Peter Pandora Obituary is a thief

Iamgrey5:
In the Southwest

Amongst uneducated

Tinubu get 70%

Atiku 25%

Others 5%


Educated

Tinubu 50%

Atiku 10%

Others 40%

Among educated tinubu won't get up to 50% in Lagos

The results from Victoria island, lekki always reveal this

Atiku got 40+% above in 2019 in Southwest

#facts

How is that your headache?

Tinubu just won the biggest multi-ethic primary by the biggest margin in political history of any political party in Nigeria. So don't worry about where Tinubu's elections votes will come from

The real question is where will the pandora thief Peter Obi get votes from? Outside SE, Peter Obituary can't get up to 1000 votes anywhere else in Nigeria

The deciding factor Will be how much Obi will be able to take from Atiku in Southeast and South South and how well Tinubu performs in North East where some of his loyal supporters in the North reside.

Bearing in mind Northeast region has quite a large number of different ethnicity and it is where Atiku comes from.

It's looking good for Atiku at the moment but anything is possible

The North Central is Toss up

Atiku should edge Tinubu in Niger and Benue

Tinubu should edge Atiku in Kogi and Kwara.

Iamgrey5:


Kano, Kaduna kastina is where 60% of North West votes are.

atiku and kwanwaso would share it

But atiku would get the bigger share, he is both a viral fulani son as well as having a more even spread to kwanwaso

Which NC?

Know that Kogi, Kwara, and Benue are already for Tinubu.

We'll work the rest soon. Everyone want anything but a Fulani man, and Tinubu is the only popular option.

Iamgrey5:
The deciding factor Will be how much Obi will be able to take from Atiku in Southeast and South South and how well Tinubu performs in North East where some of his loyal supporters in the North reside.

Bearing in mind Northeast quite a large number of different ethnicity and it's where Atiku came from.

It's looking good for Atiku at the moment.

tinubu expecting win in north east is like atiku expecting win in south west

The two zones would back their sons massively, atiku is very rooted in north east and employs thousands with his businesses accross that region

The clamour that north east haven't had presidency before doesn't make it easier for tinubu, we saw how apc almost used that sentiment for lawan

Penguin2:


Watch Kano people respond to questions about 2023 elections and you’d find out you are the one who is actually ignorant.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSwZ-C65Xq0

Is that not the jobless ipob that trekked to Kano to beg Kwankwaso to deputize Peter Obi but was later begging for money to return back home when he was stranded in Kano.
Whotakes inconsequential people seriously?

Truthisunique2:
Among educated tinubu won't get up to 50% in Lagos

The results from Victoria island, lekki always reveal this

Atiku got 40+% above in 2019 in Southwest

#facts

Lol Lagos is not only the place with educated Yorubas.

Iamgrey5:
Lol Lagos is not only the place with educated Yorubas.

Ekiti would do 50/50

They never disappoint, atiku got 40%+ in south west the last time

Highest he would drop is 10% which is still pass mark

Amotolongbo:
some times when I see the political analysis of some people here on nairaland, I just smile and blame ignorance

You blame ignorance for smiling........I admire your truthful nature. ....Accept my assurance of your wisdoms cos a man that knows not and admits that he knows not is wise

Truthisunique2:
atiku and kwanwaso would share it

But atiku would get the bigger share, he is both a viral fulani son as well as having a more even spread to kwanwaso

For some reason, Northerners are not sold on Atiku candidacy like that.

They prefer Kwakwaso to a large extent and many people within his circle believe he is a president in waiting.

If not this election cycle, sometime in the future.

CallYeNot:
Which NC?

Know that Kogi, Kwara, and Benue are already for Tinubu.

We'll work the rest soon. Everyone want anything but a Fulani man, and Tinubu is the only popular option.

what a joke

Benue, Plateau are strong christian zones resisting Islamic jihadists which a Muslim Muslim ticket would encourage

Kogi always go with Abuja in almost every election, yayaha Bello and buhari government have killed everything apc in that state

Only yorubas don't want fulani, would north not want itself?

Peter Obi will sweep SW votes. Forget the noise by Tinubu urchins on nairaland. Remember 2019

Truthisunique2:
Ekiti would do 50/50

They never disappoint, atiku got 40%+ in south west the last time

Highest he would drop is 10% which is still pass mark

Tinubu will Ekiti by decent margin.