I honestly didn't want to create a thread for this, but I've seen different biased threads being created which tend to skew the way the writer wishes, to suit his/her bias.

We all know that the elections in 2023 will be hotly contested, in fact if none of the four major contestants pull out, the elections might not be as clear cut as we've always had in the past.

The likely States where each contestant will pull their strongest base are as follows.



Peter Obi

Abia
Anambra
Enugu
Ebonyi
Imo
Delta
Rivers
Edo


Bola Tinubu

Lagos
Ogun
Osun
Ondo
Oyo
Ekiti
Kogi
Kwara

Likely wins for Tinubu

Kaduna
Niger



Atiku Abubakar

Adamawa
Bauchi
Sokoto
Gombe
Bayelsa
Plateau
Kebbi
Zamfara

Rabi'u Kwankwaso

Kano
Jigawa
Katsina


Toss ups

Abuja - Peter Obi/Atiku
Benue - Peter Obi/Atiku
Cross River - Peter Obi/Atiku
Akwa Ibom - Peter Obi/Atiku
Nassarawa - Peter Obi/Atiku
Yobe - Atiku/Tinubu/Kwankwaso
Taraba - Peter Obi/Atiku
Borno - Atiku/Kwankwaso.

Note: We know Nigeria use popular vote, so it may come down to who is able to get block votes from his region. The only likely candidate that will do that is Peter Obi and Tinubu. Bar Lagos, Tinubu will get block votes from the rest.

Atiku's win in different states in the north may not be as clear cut as that of Tinubu in the South West or Peter Obi in the South East.

Nonsense Analysis.
All South South will vote PDP
The whole Governors will ask their supporters to do so.
It even gave us Vice President.

666Advocate:
Nonsense Analysis.
All South South will vote PDP

People are voting candidate now, not party.

kponkedenge:


People are voting candidate now, not party.

Stop deceiving yourself.

666Advocate:


Stop deceiving yourself.

You'd be in for a shocker.

Tinubu is winning the whole six southwestern states. He would win Kogi, Kwara, Niger in the north central. Nasarawa is open but he may likely win there if Obi and Atiku share the Christian votes. Tinubu would win Yobe and Borno in the northeast and maybe Bauchi. He would win Zamfara, Katsina and if el Rufai is made his running mate, Kaduna. Forget the noise coming from Edo, we don't know who would win here yet but Atiku is completely out of the equation.

donphilopus:
Tinubu is winning the whole six southwestern states. He would win Kogi, Kwara, Niger in the north central. Nasarawa is open but he may likely win there if Obi and Atiku share the Christian votes. Tinubu would win Yobe and Borno in the northeast and maybe Bauchi. He would win Zamfara, Katsina and if el Rufai is made his running mate, Kaduna. Forget the noise coming from Edo, we don't know who would win here yet but Atiku is completely out of the equation.

He may win in everything you said, but definitely not Katsina, he can't win Bauchi too.

It remains to be seen how things will play out in Borno and Zamfara.

Summary, All old breed politicians are out of the game cos the reawakening is atomic.

The only way Atiku is winning is, if it goes to run off and it's down to Him and Atiku. Igbo will decide to give PDP their votes as usual.

If Peter Obi campaigns harder he'll win more states, right now, he's just idle, he needs to do more, Osun state election is just next week and he still hasn't visited the state, he needs to work harder. I wish him all the best.

Peter Obi would only end up splitting PDP votes in Alaigbo, but I still think that on the eve of the elections more than half of the Igbo electorate would switch to Atiku after facing the reality of Obi not being electable. Ekweremadu already hinted us of that eventuality. Obi himself might even step down for Atiku. But even more importantly, ipob would frustrate electioneering activities, thereby having a negative effect on voter turnout in the region.

kponkedenge:


People are voting candidate now, not party.

Oga pdp is non existent in yobe,borno and zamfara.it is apc totally.tinubu will win katsina.gombe and bauchi is 50 50.benue will not vote another fulani

OkutaNla:
Peter Obi would only end up splitting PDP votes in Alaigbo, but I still think that on the eve of the elections more than half of the Igbo electorate would switch to Atiku after facing the reality of Obi not being electable. Ekweremadu already hinted us of that eventuality. Obi himself might even step down for Atiku. But even more importantly, ipob would frustrate electioneering activities, thereby having a negative effect on voter turnout in the region.

Obi doesn't need to step down for anyone. Elections isn't a do or die affair.

He's a Nigerian so it's he's right to contest, besides what makes you think he can't win? If the Nigerian youths who are tired of suffering say they want him, why do you feel he can't win?

felong:

Obi doesn't need to step down for anyone. Elections isn't a do or die affair.

He's a Nigerian so it's he's right to contest, besides what makes you think he can't win? If the Nigerian youths who are tired of suffering say they want him, why do you feel he can't win?

Those you consider 'Nigerian youths' are majorly former ipob sympathizers/endsars arsonists cum modern-day 'Obituraries'. FYI, you people don't have a monopoly of 'youth' in your ranks. APC can equally argue that it has armies of SW and North-based youths that are ready and awaiting marching orders to vote for their party's candidate, so the idea that 'all' or 'majority' of Nigerian youths are supporting Peter Obi is blatantly false. There are youths amongst the ranks of the supporters of every major candidate in the race. Know that and know peace.

garfield1:


Oga pdp is non existent in yobe,borno and zamfara.it is apc totally.tinubu will win katsina.gombe and bauchi is 50 50.benue will not vote another fulani

That's why I gave those three northern states as toss ups.

PDP will win Bauchi and Gombe.

Katsina is still a toss up between Atiku and Kwankwaso. There's no way Tinubu will win there.

You maybe right about Benue, but I'll still leave it as a toss up because Atiku won there in 2019.

OkutaNla:


Those you consider 'Nigerian youths' are majorly former ipob sympathizers/endsars arsonists cum modern-day 'Obituraries'. FYI, you people don't have a monopoly of 'youth' in your ranks. APC can equally argue that it has armies of SW and North-based youths that are ready and awaiting marching orders to vote for their party's candidate, so the idea that 'all' or 'majority' of Nigerian youths are supporting Peter Obi is blatantly false. There are youths amongst the ranks of the supporters of every major candidate in the race. Know that and know peace.

So how should that concern you. There are other candidates in various parties, contesting for presidency who wouldn't even get up to 5k votes, yet they're still in the race. So why bother yourself with Peter Obi, if he's irrelevant and looses life goes on.

In the meantime, it's he's right to contest as a Nigerian, so save yourself the stress and focus on campaigning for your candidate.

kponkedenge:


That's why I gave those three northern states as toss ups.

PDP will win Bauchi and Gombe.

Katsina is still a toss up between Atiku and Kwankwaso. There's no way Tinubu will win there.

It is not a toss up.they will give tinubu more votes than Yoruba states.masari is with tinubu and holds katsina firmly.how will PDP win bauchi and gombe? Atiku couldn't get 25% here.tinubu has a slight advantage here.atiku is only sure of taraba and Adamawa.

garfield1:


It is not a toss up.they will give tinubu more votes than Yoruba states.masari is with tinubu and holds katsina firmly.how will PDP win bauchi and gombe? Atiku couldn't get 25% here.tinubu has a slight advantage here.atiku is only sure of taraba and Adamawa.

You should know that Buhari isn't on the ballot this time, so that cult-like following from the north won't happen for Tinubu. If Tinubu is to win any state in the north, it will be a very closely contested fight anywhere.

It doesn't matter if they have an APC Governor or not, the average northerner will almost likely vote for their fellow northerner.

Kaduna had a PDP Governor in 2015, but Jonathan lost the State to Buhari's APC.

I'm only stating the likely scenario that may play out.

felong:

So how should that concern you. There are other candidates in various parties, contesting for presidency who wouldn't even get up to 5k votes, yet they're still in the race. So why bother yourself with Peter Obi, if he's irrelevant and looses life goes on.

In the meantime, it's he's right to contest as a Nigerian, so save yourself the stress and focus on campaigning for your candidate.

This is a public forum so I have every right to air my opinion. You Obi supporters are just a bunch of intolerant cry-babies. Were you expecting everyone on this thread to agree with your permutations before? Others like myself are bound to have different perspectives and we'll air them whether you like it or not. You can't bully everyone into accepting your position. Never.

kponkedenge:


You should know that Buhari isn't on the ballot this time, so that cult-like following from the north won't happen for Tinubu. If Tinubu is to win any state in the north, it will be a very closely contested fight anywhere.

It doesn't matter if they have an APC Governor or not, the average northerner will almost likely vote for their fellow northerner.

Kaduna had a PDP Governor in 2015, but Jonathan lost the State to Buhari's APC.

I'm only stating the likely scenario that may play out.

Apc are too entrenched in states like zamfara,borno,yobe...how do you think apc got 800,000 in borno with all the insecurity? Those votes are manufactured and PDP do not have the men to counter apc machinery there.for buhari to win gej,he needed pdp governors to defect.he also needed inside help from pdp.do you see any apc governor going to pdp? Can't you see that pdp are ready to sabotage atiku?
Even when buhari is not on the ballot,they still vote apc.right from1999,pdp has never won in zamfara,yobe or borno.they hate atiku and PDP.
States where atiku can win are kebbi,sokoto,nasarawa,benue,kogi and it will be narrow.those people dont like atiku

garfield1:


Apc are too entrenched in states like zamfara,borno,yobe...how do you think apc got 800,000 in borno with all the insecurity? Those votes are manufactured and PDP do not have the men to counter apc machinery there.for buhari to win gej,he needed pdp governors to defect.he also needed inside help from pdp.do you see any apc governor going to pdp? Can't you see that pdp are ready to sabotage atiku?
Even when buhari is not on the ballot,they still vote apc.right from1999,pdp has never won in zamfara,yobe or borno.they hate atiku and PDP.
States where atiku can win are kebbi,sokoto,nasarawa,benue,kogi and it will be narrow.those people dont like atiku

You have a point about them not traditionally voting PDP, but what about NNPP? I saw a video of Kwankwaso at Borno, trying to set up an office there and the large following he got.

The truth is; Kwankwaso is playing spoiler to APC in the North, while Peter Obi is playing spoiler to Atiku in the South.

Except there are realignment before the elections, it will still be hard for Tinubu.

If APC can come to an agreement with Kwankwaso to step down, then they will have an easier ride to the presidency.... anything aside that is far fetched.

kponkedenge:


You have a point about them not traditionally voting PDP, but what about NNPP? I saw a video of Kwankwaso at Borno, trying to set up an office there and the large following he got.

The truth is; Kwankwaso is playing spoiler to APC in the North, while Peter Obi is playing spoiler to Atiku in the South.

Except there are realignment before the elections, it will still be hard for Tinubu.

If APC can come to an agreement with Kwankwaso to step down, then they will have an easier ride to the presidency.... anything aside that is far fetched.

The problem with you guys is that you are easily swayed by minority opinions.even in 2015,not everyone loved Buhari in the north and not everyone in the south loves gej.even in katsina,buhari has enemies.in 2019,we saw the crowd atiku pulled uo north.we thought he eill divide buhati votes so dont be deceived.kwankwaso is more loved than atiku in the north esp among Muslims so he will have support.but this support is restricted to nw and mainly in kano,jigawa...

Honestly it will be hard for Tinubu in the north but he should win narrowly.except the northern apc betrays him,he will win but he wi lose some places like sokoto, kano,kebbi,plateau,abj,benue,Adamawa,tarabw