Atiku: Atiku is from the Northeast but he is not influential in his state or region. He didn’t help install Adamawa’s present governor or any other one in his zone. Zulum, Shettima and others are more influential in the grass roots than Atiku. His other support base is the Southeast because he married an Igbo woman and picked Obi as VP. SE will vote along tribal lines next year so nothing for Atiku. SS might vote for him but Wike, Obi, Oshiomole and other players will pull votes in different directions. Obviously nothing for him in SW.

Region Performance: He will lose NE, SE, SW, SS and NW. He might or might not win MB.

Peter Obi: Despite all the noise, Obi has zero footprint in the SW. His loss here will be heavy. His VP is a lightweight. Datti can’t even win senate confidently. He’s pulling minimal votes. Almost zero votes in NW and NE. NC especially kogi and Kwara are not obidient. Votes here will be minimal for Obi. He will win SE and SS votes, which would have been Atiku’s. Obi’s candidacy is the biggest bad news for Atiku. No wonder Abubakar has been quiet.

Verdict: Obi wins SS and SE and loses every other region.

Kwakwanso: It seems Kwankwanso will collapse for Atiku or Bola. But if he contests, he will win more votes in North west than Atiku. He will spoil atikus votes that might have gone to him if he wants contesting. Kwankwanso has no votes in any of the southern zones and middle belt.

Prediction: Wins some states in NW. lose everywhere else.

Tinubu: So far the only candidate that can be assured of votes in the south and north. Hose Muslim Vp because he knows the biggest Christian bias regions SS and SE will vote Obi no matter who he chooses. NE will back Shettima. SW will back Bola. NW governors will deliver votes. NC will also significantly vote for Tinubu. Amaechi, Oshiomole and others will deliver 25%.

Prediction: Wins SW, NE, close second in NW, close second in NC and wins the election.

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