According to the constitution of FRN, the President of Nigeria will be elected using a modified two round system, to be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a majority of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states.

By simple analysis, which 24 states can Obi realistically score 25% from.

I am sure of the following
SW- Lagos and Oyo - 2
SS- All SS states - 6
SE- All SE states - 5
NS- All NS except Kwara and Niger - 5
NW- Maybe only Kaduna - 1
NE- Maybe only Taraba -1

TOTAL -20

Based on my personal analysis as it stands, PO would still need 4 more states. Where do you think I made mistake and if this is correct, which 4 more states can he push to get at least the 25% required by law aside the simple majority of votes cast.




We learn everyday

Anther gibberish! you guys keep over hyping obi as if he is going to get 5m votes throughout Nigeria considering the fact that the owner of South
East have spoken that elections is not going to hold In the south east which we all know UGM will enforce which will lead to low turn out in obi region

Mere threat from unknown gunmen is going to shaken the entire south east

This is a joke but let me hear what others have to say.

*gets popcorn*

Obi will get 25% in all the 36 states and FCT. In fact, the 25% projection is small, he should get 50% in at least 30 states and 25% in the remaining 6. Obi Pandora is a goal already

Mynd44:
This is a joke but let me bear what others have to say.

*gets popcorn*

Tinubu fake supporter sported

Adamawa,ekiti,ogun and ondo

Enyimbafc:
Adamawa,ekiti,ogun and ondo

As in, 25 out of every 100 voters in Adamawa, Ogun, Ekiti and Ondo will vote for Peter Obi? Na juju e wan use or wetin? Have you been to those states before? You guys joke too much on this forum

seunmsg:


As in, 25 out of every 100 voters in Adamawa, Ogun, Ekiti and Ondo will vote for Peter Obi? Na juju e wan use or wetin? Have you been to those states before? You guys joke too much on this forum

He's smoking weed.

Ondo and Oyo are likely to go PDP way.
Dunno, APC/ACN hardly win these states esp Ondo

soojar:
According to the constitution of FRN, the President of Nigeria will be elected using a modified two round system, to be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a majority of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states.

By simple analysis, which 24 states can Obi realistically score 25% from.

I am sure of the following
SW- Lagos and Oyo - 2
SS- All SS states - 6
SE- All SE states - 5
NS- All NS except Kwara and Niger - 5
NW- Maybe only Kaduna - 1
NE- Maybe only Taraba -1

TOTAL -20



We learn everyday

Numbers determine also.

Imagine PO clearing SS and SE with 4m votes for LP

While borno only bringing Over 2M votes for APC apart from Kano, Kaduna, Kastina

I don tire for una Obillegal Supporters.

See the way OP dey calculate am, as if he know reach 5 Persons in those states wey go vote Obi.

Abeg make una Campaign for the man, and stop this Childish Calculation.

Nosotros Muevte [I no know oo ]

Sammy07:


He's smoking weed.

Ondo and Oyo are likely to go PDP way.
Dunno, APC/ACN hardly win these states esp Ondo

Not when the election is between Tinubu and Atiku. APC is winning Ondo and Oyo with nothing less than 70% of the total vote cast.

seunmsg:


Not when the election is between Tinubu and Atiku. APC is winning Ondo and Oyo with nothing less than 70% of the total vote cast.

True sha

Ruggedniggaone:
Anther gibberish! you guys keep over hyping obi as if he is going to get 5m votes throughout Nigeria considering the fact that the owner of South
East have spoken that elections is not going to hold In the south east which we all know UGM will enforce which will lead to low turn out in obi region

You didn't read my write up? I didn't talk about him winning the presidency, I talked about the states that is possible for him to get up to 25%





We learn everyday

Enyimbafc:
Adamawa,ekiti,ogun and ondo

Adamawa is totally impossible with Atiku's people still angry with him.

Ekiti with Fayose joining forces is Tinubu is impossible

Ondo, probable but not feasible with Akeredolu carrying Tinubu for head like anythng.





We learn everyday

He'll get 80percent of Bornu and Yobe, 85percent of Kano, katsina and kaduna. Mugu people............

Sammy07:


Numbers determine also.

Imagine PO clearing SS and SE with 4m votes for LP

While borno only bringing Over 2M votes for APC apart from Kano, Kaduna, Kastina

Yes, numbers determine but apart from him having majority of votes, the constitution states he must get above 25% in at least 24 states if not the election is inconclusive and must go to rerun. So the question is which 24 states can he truthfully get 25% from?




We learn everyday

Lagos and Oyo

Wetin this guy dey drink now

Obi that's not certain of winning all the 5 SE states not to talk of SS states

seunmsg:


As in, 25 out of every 100 voters in Adamawa, Ogun, Ekiti and Ondo will vote for Peter Obi? Na juju e wan use or wetin? Have you been to those states before? You guys joke too much on this forum

Many yoruba christains that will be brainwash by their pastors and bishops will vote for obi before january next year,u will see the effect of muslim muslim ticket in Nigeria

Sammy07:


Numbers determine also.

Imagine PO clearing SS and SE with 4m votes for LP

While borno only bringing Over 2M votes for APC apart from Kano, Kaduna, Kastina

And what makes you think the KKK will vote for a Yoruba man?

BTW Anambra has more registered voters than Bornu state

seunmsg:


As in, 25 out of every 100 voters in Adamawa, Ogun, Ekiti and Ondo will vote for Peter Obi? Na juju e wan use or wetin? Have you been to those states before? You guys joke too much on this forum

But you also believe Tinubu will win in the North

Unzerious:
I don tire for una Obillegal Supporters.

See the way OP dey calculate am, as if he know reach 5 Persons in those states wey go vote Obi.

Abeg make una Campaign for the man, and stop this Childish Calculation.

Nosotros Muevte [I no know oo ]

Disclaimer:
I am not a supporter of Obi or any of these people for that matter. But I am a realistic political analyst.

I've made it clear to Obi's supporters that as far as this dispensation is concerned, Its impossible for Obi to become the president

And I've made it known long before now that the only realistic chance Tinubu has of getting the presidency is if he goes for Muslim/Muslim

And that Atiku ordinarily would have been the favourite but he is not a political strategist and this is where someone like Tinubu can hurt him


This particular thread is for Peter Obi's supporters to see that (because many of them don't actually know this) apart from having simple majority, he also need to score above 25% in 24 states. Which 24 states will give him that is the question now.




We learn everyday

famology:
He'll get 80percent of Bornu and Yobe, 85percent of Kano, katsina and kaduna. Mugu people............

No need for abuse




We learn everyday.

Sammy07:


Numbers determine also.

Imagine PO clearing SS and SE with 4m votes for LP

While borno only bringing Over 2M votes for APC apart from Kano, Kaduna, Kastina

Anambra has more registered voters than Borno..Stop spreading falsehood.. Check the voters registration across States and be free from ignorance

soojar:





No need for abuse




We learn everyday.

Ohhhhhh..... sorry nor vex. I didn't see the learner tag on your car. Lol....

helinues:


Lagos and Oyo

Wetin this guy dey drink now

Obi that's not certain of winning all the 5 SE states not to talk of SS states

Lagos is not impossible for him to get 25% considering the number of Igbos in Lagos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cmyWRkDEjI

Sammy07:


Numbers determine also.

Imagine PO clearing SS and SE with 4m votes for LP

While borno only bringing Over 2M votes for APC apart from Kano, Kaduna, Kastina

You are not smart. Borno registered voters is less than Anambra. Don't forget Borno has good number of Christians in Southern Borno and they are OBIdient. Kaduna has 40% of Christians. Even Buhari could not get 1million in Kaduna because of southern Kaduna factors. PDP candidate in guber poll in Kaduna got more than 800+ votes. Gombe and Adamawa can give PO more than 25%.

PaChukwudi44:

And what makes you think the KKK will vote for a Yoruba man?

BTW Anambra has more registered voters than Bornu state

Just about 100,000 more than Bornu. And how many of those in Anambra will or can actually come out to vote on election day compared to Bornu which has consistently been delivering high voters/registered voters over the the years.




We learn everyday

Popular Yoruba Oba Blast Tinubu and all His Supporters for supporting Tinubu, says its the turn of Igbos, watchi the emotional video here

https://www.nairaland.com/7227476/popular-yoruba-oba-blast-tinubu#114723375




May God and nature bless all honest Yoruba men and women who always stand for truth without prejudice. Nature and life will forever be kind to you all for standing up for truth and fairness!

Reader530:

You are not smart. Borno registered voters is less than Anambra. Don't forget Borno has good number of Christians in Southern Borno and they are OBIdient. Kaduna has 40% of Christians. Even Buhari could not get 1million in Kaduna because of southern Kaduna factors. PDP candidate in guber poll in Kaduna got more than 800+ votes. Gombe and Adamawa can give PO more than 25%.

But borno always produces more votes than anambra