Let's denote President as P and Vice President as VP.

For APC: P (Muslim) + VP (Muslim) = Atiku or Kwankwaso or Obi ...eqn (1a)

For APC: P (Age > 70) = Obi or Kwankwaso ...eqn (1b)

For APC: P (APC Failure 2015-2023) = Atiku or Kwankwaso or Obi ...eqn (1c)

For PDP: P2015‐P2023 (North) + P2023-2027 (North) = Obi or Tinubu ...eqn (2)

For LP: P (SouthEast) + VP (NorthWest) = Obi ...eqn (3a)

For LP: P/VP (Party Structure) = Atiku or Kwankwaso or Tinubu ...eqn (3b)

For NNPP: P2015-P2023 (North) + P2023-2027 (North) = Obi or Tinubu ...eqn (4)

Summing up equations 1 to 4, gives us:

Atiku = 3
Kwankwaso = 4
Obi = 6
Tinubu = 3

So Obi has the highest chances of wining the election with a probability of 38%, this followed distantly by Kwankwaso with 25%. Atiku and Tinubu gets 19%.

The summary is that Obi chances of winning the elections based on Age, Geopolitical Zoning, Party Structure, APC Failure and Muslim/Muslim Ticket is 1.5 times more than Kwankwaso and 2.0 times more than Atiku and Tinubu

QED

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ShowYourCertificate:
Let's denote President as P and Vice President as VP.

For APC: P (Muslim) + VP (Muslim) = Atiku or Kwankwaso or Obi ...eqn (1a)

For APC: P (Age > 70) = Obi or Kwankwaso ...eqn (1b)

For APC: P (APC Failure 2015-2023) = Atiku or Kwankwaso or Obi ...eqn (1c)

For PDP: P2015‐P2023 (North) + P2023-2027 (North) = Obi or Tinubu ...eqn (2)

For LP: P (SouthEast) + VP (NorthWest) = Obi ...eqn (3a)

For LP: P/VP (Party Structure) = Atiku or Kwankwaso or Tinubu ...eqn (3b)

For NNPP: P2015-P2023 (North) + P2023-2027 (North) = Obi or Tinubu ...eqn (4)

Summing up equations 1 to 4, gives us:

Atiku = 3
Kwankwaso = 4
Obi = 6
Tinubu = 3

So Obi has the highest chances of wining the election with a probability of 38%, this followed distantly by Kwankwaso with 25%. Atiku and Tinubu gets 19%.

The summary is that Obi chances of winning the elections based on Age, Geopolitical Zoning, Party Structure, APC Failure and Muslim/Muslim Ticket is 1.5 times more than Kwankwaso and 2.0 times more than Atiku and Tinubu

QED

Seun, Obinoscopy, Lalasticlala, Mynd44, Dominique

Seun (and other IT savvy mods), I know you love Algorithms so you should consider moving this to the Frontpage. This simplifies the logic most people use in their arguments.

I love this. Can you do the permutations adding corruption index of each candidate? I'm sure Obi's chances would skyrocket to 57%

Lalasticala... You're the unbiased mod I know around here. The one in charge of politics is rooting for the druggie-Boko combo.

Dumbest math ever!!

The real formula for calculating political success is

Experience + Achievement + Terms in office - Controversy


Using this simple formula it's clear Atiku will win, followed by Tinubu

LordVoldermort:
The real formula for calculating political success is

Experience + Achievement + Terms in office - Controversy


Using this simple formula it's clear Atiku will win, followed by Tinubu

Plus rigging ability ba? Add looting ability too.

I like Tinubu because I would like to see the type of transformation in Lagos in other parts of our nation. I believe he can employ the right personnel that would steer our nation to glory.

Vote Jagaban!

ShowYourCertificate:
Let's denote President as P and Vice President as VP.

For APC: P (Muslim) + VP (Muslim) = Atiku or Kwankwaso or Obi ...eqn (1a)

For APC: P (Age > 70) = Obi or Kwankwaso ...eqn (1b)

For APC: P (APC Failure 2015-2023) = Atiku or Kwankwaso or Obi ...eqn (1c)

For PDP: P2015‐P2023 (North) + P2023-2027 (North) = Obi or Tinubu ...eqn (2)

For LP: P (SouthEast) + VP (NorthWest) = Obi ...eqn (3a)

For LP: P/VP (Party Structure) = Atiku or Kwankwaso or Tinubu ...eqn (3b)

For NNPP: P2015-P2023 (North) + P2023-2027 (North) = Obi or Tinubu ...eqn (4)

Summing up equations 1 to 4, gives us:

Atiku = 3
Kwankwaso = 4
Obi = 6
Tinubu = 3

So Obi has the highest chances of wining the election with a probability of 38%, this followed distantly by Kwankwaso with 25%. Atiku and Tinubu gets 19%.

The summary is that Obi chances of winning the elections based on Age, Geopolitical Zoning, Party Structure, APC Failure and Muslim/Muslim Ticket is 1.5 times more than Kwankwaso and 2.0 times more than Atiku and Tinubu

QED

I love your mathematical reasoning.

States that Obi will win with wide margin:

Abia
Anambra
Ebony
Enugu
Imo
All six states of South South
Plateau
Benue
Taraba


States obi will get 30 to 35%
Lagos
Ondo
Kogi
Ekiti
Kaduna

States Obi will get more than 25 to 29%

Zamfara
Sokoto
Gombe
Adamawa
Kwara
Ogun

Abuja is 9n lock down for Obi

Salewa97:
I like Tinubu because I would like to see the type of transformation in Lagos in other parts of our nation. I believe he can employ the right personnel that would steer our nation to glory.

Vote Jagaban!

which transformation? Travel from Ghana to Lagos, the moment you enter Lagos you start seeing darkness and bad roads.. All the way from Ghana,Togo and Benin the roads are smooth,and you're here talking about transformation