Voters registration has officially ended and electioneering campaigns will commence in full force by September according to INEC's election guidelines. Political Parties have had their primaries. Winners have emerged and running mates chosen to authenticate the validity of the various party candidates.
Road to Aso Villa has begun in full force. The political players have readied their machineries,upped their strategies and oiled their 'machines'.2023, almost as 1979,in the case of being a four- way superiority clash and contest, is looking very much unpredictable as the pendulum can swing either ways.
Peter Obi for LP,Bola Ahmed Tinubu for APC,Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso for NNPP and finally Atiku Abubakar for PDP.
The Peter Obi's tsunami cannot be wished away;It had taken Nigeria by storm through the social media and have gradually began to spring forth at grassroot level. The youths in their overwhelming numbers are worthy ambassadors of the Take Back Nigeria Movement.
Inspite of Peter Obi's growing popularity,alot remains to be done,if he must bulldoze his way all through to Aso Villa. He will do well but his 'best' won't get him Nigeria's most coveted seat.
I will tell you why. I'll be comparing Obi & Tinubu. Until issues highlighted below is considered and countered off I'm certain all those noise about Peter Obi's candidacy won't translate to victory songs
1:BLOC VOTES:
As it stands today I'm not sure Peter Obi can win any state or region CONVINCINGLY. His home base, the south East had always been PRO-PDP from the onset, even APC commands a sizeable followership here,and have two states in Imo and Ebonyi under their party.So the SE will be a battleground.A free for all fight. Votes will be shared between PDP,APC and LP.
Also the issues of high voters apathy and IPOB declaration of no election im Biafra will hinder Peter Obi's aspiration.
Obi may eventually win all SE states except Enugu who is likely to be won by PDP,but how much marginal difference is being considered?
How much damage will it do to Tinubu's chances? Atiku will bear the brunt of Obi's emergence as SE was on lockdown for him until Obi came on board.
Also the much dreaded K's states, that even PDP, the self- touted biggest political party in Africa failed woefully repeatedly at every election cycle, will deliver the killer blow.
Katsina will vote APC. Let no one decieve you. All the who-is-who in Katsina are progressives.If Atiku and PDP had performed poorly , you can imagine how an easterner will fare here
Let's take an instance
2019 election in Katsina
Buhari:1.2M. Atiku:308K The margin was924K only 24k less than what Atiku polled in four SE state, excluding Anambra
So Buhari had cancelled out Atiku votes in four state with only Katsina
It sounds ridiculous right?
That's the power of bloc votes.
I know some would say it was because of Sai Buhari but APC structure and cult like following coupled with non existent opposition contributed to that victory. And the APC will come through for Tinubu as APC candidate.
Same story goes in Borno strengthened by Shettima being Tinubu's running mate,Yobe and Zamfara.
Opposition are almost non existent as the state runs on a one party system.
Bloc Votes are important, very decisive and a game changer

.

As you de write this your opinion, suffer no de taya you ni? What are you benefiting from this APC regime that is valuable enough to becloud you natural sense of reasoning? Are you not feeling ashamed of the party that couldn't fulfill EVEN ONE PROMISE MADE through out their electioneering campaign in 2014? Oga you no go piti for your unborn children? Na God I take beg you! Anything APC or any other party will give you is nothing compared to the future of our children. Reason nam

yipata:
Now this is realisticaly true. One thing I know is except God receives TINUBU at his own time... ASIWAJU will be President. Though I think God's will is what's most paramount but between these contestants .. the only person playing this game rightly with maturity and focus is TINUBU.

Then if God receives BAT at his own time, will your conscience spare you if Shetima becomes the president?

Jagaban hold the number.

Tinubu is an excellent politician l must give it to him BUT the earth is against him this time around.

tony0806:
As you de write this your opinion, suffer no de taya you ni? What are you benefiting from this APC regime that is valuable enough to becloud you natural sense of reasoning? Are you not feeling ashamed of the party that couldn't fulfill EVEN ONE PROMISE MADE through out their electioneering campaign in 2014? Oga you no go piti for your unborn children? Na God I take beg you! Anything APC or any other party will give you is nothing compared to the future of our children. Reason nam

Bro,calm down
It's the brutal truth those facts I highlighted
I'm not campaigning for APC or Tinubu

Akanbi Olodo Ide, Jagaban 2023 is a reality.

The only thing that can make APC and Tinubu win a election in Nigeria is for Buhari to use the military to rig the election.

Otherwise Peter Obi is the next president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria

Leave those shouting and ranting on social media

PandoraObi:
Leave those shouting and ranting on social media

Said by someone who is online.Land protector.

Aiel123:
Voters registration has officially ended and electioneering campaigns will commence in full force by September according to INEC's election guidelines. Political Parties have had their primaries. Winners have emerged and running mates chosen to authenticate the validity of the various party candidates.
Road to Aso Villa has begun in full force. The political players have readied their machineries,upped their strategies and oiled their 'machines'.2023, almost as 1979,in the case of being a four- way superiority clash and contest, is looking very much unpredictable as the pendulum can swing either ways.
Peter Obi for LP,Bola Ahmed Tinubu for APC,Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso for NNPP and finally Atiku Abubakar for PDP.
The Peter Obi's tsunami cannot be wished away;It had taken Nigeria by storm through the social media and have gradually began to spring forth at grassroot level. The youths in their overwhelming numbers are worthy ambassadors of the Take Back Nigeria Movement.
Inspite of Peter Obi's growing popularity,alot remains to be done,if he must bulldoze his way all through to Aso Villa. He will do well but his 'best' won't get him Nigeria's most coveted seat.
I will tell you why. I'll be comparing Obi & Tinubu. Until issues highlighted below is considered and countered off I'm certain all those noise about Peter Obi's candidacy won't translate to victory songs
1:BLOC VOTES:
As it stands today I'm not sure Peter Obi can win any state or region CONVINCINGLY. His home base, the south East had always been PRO-PDP from the onset, even APC commands a sizeable followership here,and have two states in Imo and Ebonyi under their party.So the SE will be a battleground.A free for all fight. Votes will be shared between PDP,APC and LP.
Also the issues of high voters apathy and IPOB declaration of no election im Biafra will hinder Peter Obi's aspiration.
Obi may eventually win all SE states except Enugu who is likely to be won by PDP,but how much marginal difference is being considered?
How much damage will it do to Tinubu's chances? Atiku will bear the brunt of Obi's emergence as SE was on lockdown for him until Obi came on board.
Also the much dreaded K's states, that even PDP, the self- touted biggest political party in Africa failed woefully repeatedly at every election cycle, will deliver the killer blow.
Katsina will vote APC. Let no one decieve you. All the who-is-who in Katsina are progressives.If Atiku and PDP had performed poorly , you can imagine how an easterner will fare here
Let's take an instance
2019 election in Katsina
Buhari:1.2M. Atiku:308K The margin was924K only 24k less than what Atiku polled in four SE state, excluding Anambra
So Buhari had cancelled out Atiku votes in four state with only Katsina
It sounds ridiculous right?
That's the power of bloc votes.
I know some would say it was because of Sai Buhari but APC structure and cult like following coupled with non existent opposition contributed to that victory. And the APC will come through for Tinubu as APC candidate.
Same story goes in Borno strengthened by Shettima being Tinubu's running mate,Yobe and Zamfara.
Opposition are almost non existent as the state runs on a one party system.
Bloc Votes are important, very decisive and a game changer

Bloc Votes don't win Election mrMan, in the 2011 Election,Buhari won your so called Bloc Votes States he didn't win, because most Southern states voted GEJ, in 2015 buhari because together with the Bloc Votes he got massive support from the south west.
U can't win Elections in Bloc Votes alone

Asiwaju Jagaban is our next president in Nigeria.

yipata:
Now this is realisticaly true. One thing I know is except God receives TINUBU at his own time... ASIWAJU will be President. Though I think God's will is what's most paramount but between these contestants .. the only person playing this game rightly with maturity and focus is TINUBU.

This Kwara state man. Rest

NwaAdazzi:


Bloc Votes don't win Election mrMan, in the 2011 Election,Buhari won your so called Bloc Votes States he didn't win, because most Southern states voted GEJ, in 2015 buhari because together with the Bloc Votes he got massive support from the south west.
U can't win Elections in Bloc Votes alone

With what's on board now do you see someone emerging with a clear majority in the south?
Bloc votes wins election alone
In 2011,Gej won the south with bloc votes and it was enough to nullify whatever Buhari polled in the North
Bloc votes can come from anywhere East South West or North
Now in this current political dispensation do honestly tell which regions will give bloc votes?

Aiel123:

With what's on board now do you see someone emerging with a clear majority in the south?
Bloc votes wins election alone
In 2011,Gej won the south with bloc votes and it was enough to nullify whatever Buhari polled in the North
Bloc votes can come from anywhere East South West or North
Now in this current political dispensation do honestly tell which regions will give bloc votes?

Kaduna,Katsina can still deliver for APC.
Kano may be divided btw Nnpp and APC.
Southern Bloc Votes may come in handy too if they are rallied together.

NwaAdazzi:


Kaduna,Katsina can still deliver for APC.
Kano may be divided btw Nnpp and APC.
Southern Bloc Votes may come in handy too if they are rallied together.

South as it stands is a battlefield
PDP had always won the region but Peter Obi's emergence has changed that calculation And APC are well rooted in South West
There'll be no overwhelming majority.

Aiel123:

South as it stands is a battlefield
PDP had always won the region but Peter Obi's emergence has changed that calculation And APC are well rooted in South West
There'll be no overwhelming majority.

dats true,We just need 25% in dah region and others.
we pray the Southsouth turns out massively

Lol write it down. PDP will get zero states in the east. That's 100% certain. .

They messed up by giving Atiku the presidential ticket.

Thank you for this analysis.
Despite social ranting APC swept all the local government in Ebonyin State.
Despite their setback they won Ekiti state.
Despite losing Osun State they were able gather more than 300,000 votes.
It speaks volume.
Let God will be done

NwaAdazzi:


dats true,We just need 25% in dah region and others.
we pray the Southsouth turns out massively

We?
You are part of the obidient crew?
If yes, winning 25 percent in NE and NW under LP party is almost impossible oo
Datti should make sure he delivers Zaria
Votes from Adamawa and taraba won't give LP roughly 25% in NE.
Work dey oo
Forget online noises.
NW is a no go area save for southern Kaduna
If South South turnout is high,good but PDP's grassroot network is threatening oo

NothingDoMe:
Lol write it down. PDP will get zero states in the east. That's 100% certain. .

They messed up by giving Atiku the presidential ticket.

Are you saying PDP will lose Enugu?
Imo?

Aiel123:

Are you saying PDP will lose Enugu?
Imo?

live and direct.

NothingDoMe:
live and direct.

To whom?
Obi?
Hope you know all elective position in Enugu is held by PDP?

NwaAdazzi:


Bloc Votes don't win Election mrMan, in the 2011 Election,Buhari won your so called Bloc Votes States he didn't win, because most Southern states voted GEJ, in 2015 buhari because together with the Bloc Votes he got massive support from the south west.
U can't win Elections in Bloc Votes alone

the same thing that play out in 2015, will play again in 2023.
Block vote from north west plus south west is enough for victory.

Aiel123:

To whom?
Obi?
Hope you know all elective position in Enugu is held by PDP?

So? How will they convince the electorates to vote Atiku instead of Obi?

In recent times PDP was just a platform to keep the Buhari led APC out. They voted for PDP but in reality they voted against APC.

Now there's no Buhari to vote against. What is exactly to be gained by Voting Atiku?

buhariguy:
the same thing that play out in 2015, will play again in 2023.
Block vote from north west plus south west is enough for victory.

okay,Bear in Mind Tinubus sensitive MM Ticket and Two Northern candidates

NothingDoMe:
So? How will they convince the electorates to vote Atiku instead of Obi?

In recent times PDP was just a platform to keep the Buhari led APC out. They voted for PDP but in reality they voted against APC.

Now there's no Buhari to vote against. What is exactly to be gained by Voting Atiku?

Things are not always as they seem to be.
I give up
I'll quote you again after the election is over

Aiel123:

The Peter Obi's tsunami cannot be wished away;It had taken Nigeria by storm through the social media and have gradually began to spring forth at grassroot level. The youths in their overwhelming numbers are worthy ambassadors of the Take Back Nigeria Movement.

Inspite of Peter Obi's growing popularity,alot remains to be done,if he must bulldoze his way all through to Aso Villa. He will do well but his 'best' won't get him Nigeria's most coveted seat.

As it stands today I'm not sure Peter Obi can win any state or region CONVINCINGLY. His home base, the south East had always been PRO-PDP from the onset, even APC commands a sizeable followership here,and have two states in Imo and Ebonyi under their party.So the SE will be a battleground.A free for all fight. Votes will be shared between PDP,APC and LP.

Also the issues of high voters apathy and IPOB declaration of no election im Biafra will hinder Peter Obi's aspiration.

Obi may eventually win all SE states except Enugu who is likely to be won by PDP,but how much marginal difference is being considered?
How much damage will it do to Tinubu's chances? Atiku will bear the brunt of Obi's emergence as SE was on lockdown for him until Obi came on board.

Ipob always says no election. They always recant .

Voter apathy has been cured by Buhari's years of rule. No one wants repeat mistake. Voters apathy has also been cured by hope. Hope in a presidential candidate that appears to be able to change things. Make no mistake, people are excited to vote again.

Atiku is NOT a loved politician in the east. Never forget that.

NothingDoMe:
Ipob always says no election. They always recant .

Voter apathy has been cured by Buhari's years of rule. No one wants repeat mistake. Voters apathy has also been cured by hope. Hope in a presidential candidate that appears to be able to change things. Make no mistake, people are excited to vote again.

Atiku is NOT a loved politician in the east. Never forget that.

That's how it should be
Voters apathy have always given room for manipulation of all kinds in previous elections.
Thankfully,INEC is now proving that a free and fair election is possible with the new electoral act,bvas accreditation and uploading of polling unit results directly to inec portal
People are now confident that their votes will count
As for Atiku,his party will work for him whether he is loved or disliked is secondary