Usually contest in previous years is between ruling and opposition, the distribution were much easier to forecast. In the 2023 election distributions are split, there is ruling, opposition and a third force. Patterns in other national elections could serve as pointers but the landscape is dry, no election on the horizon ahead of Presidential election in February 2023. This makes forecasting a bit challenging.

Statistical data from INEC are not finalized, so registrations by state, zone, are still fuzy. Typically we follow campaign and fund raisers to tell which candidate has big backers. When industry and corporate captains queue behind a particular candidate, it is usually an indicator of who investors prefer to lead the country. Money influence vote, and vote deliver the victory. It is like this around the world. Unfortunately campaign is still distant and too early to see donors list to fine tune projections. The best we can advise is below.


Charity begins at home, each candidate must have support of his state governor, state house of assembly, state federal legislatures. This support must translate to landslide victory for the candidate at home. The home advantage, this is local grassroot politics at play.

Next, each candidate must carry states in his zone at 40% or better. Must score above 30% for combined popular and statutory majority.

A Southern candidate, in addition to clinching his zone must have minimum second lead in Southern region, and win two additional zones in North.

A Northern candidate, in addition to clinching zone must have minimum second lead in Northern region, and win two additional zones in South.

May the best man win!

APC
Must win Lagos in landslide victory.
At minimum, need 4 states win in SW.
Get 30% or more voters in SW.
At minimum, score 2nd highest in SOUTH.
Need win in 2 zones in NORTH.

If APC gets above Tinubu will be President.
If LP or PDP wins, APC will form opposition government.


LP
Must win Anambra in landslide victory.
At minimum, need 3 states win in SE.
Get 30% or more voters in SE.
At minimum, score 2nd highest in SOUTH.
Need win in 2 zones in NORTH.

If LP gets above Obi will be President.
If APC or PDP wins, LP will NOT form government.


PDP
Must win Adamawa in landslide victory.
At minimum, need 3 states win in NE.
Get 30% or more voters in NE.
At minimum, score 2nd highest in NORTH.
Need win in 2 zones in SOUTH.

If PDP gets above Atiku will be President.
If APC wins PDP will form opposition government. If LP wins, PDP will NOT form government.


Note - APC has advantage of incumbent support at Federal level and majority States and LGs. In a win or loss it will form government.

cool

Peter Obi for you
Peter Obi for me
Peter Obi for everyone.
vote Peter Obi for a better tomorrow.

In elections a party positions itself for two things. First priority and focus is on winning the competition. Second focus is coming in as opposition party.

The computation above is structured with the two priorities in mind.