Well, there is one thing that is eventually going to stop the war. That thing is exhaustion.


Russian forces in Ukraine

Russia sent over 80% of their combat troops to Ukraine in the first phase and everything else it had in the second phase. Kremlin is actively seeking out mercenaries, soldiers who retired from service after 2012, Chechen militias, anyone and everyone they can fight and is willing or able to hold and fire a gun.

This is an act of desperation and unsuistainable. Russia won’t be able to replace their entire combat potential in the next several months and these mercenaries and militias aren’t even intended as replacements, they’re needed to complement the failling Russian army on the battlefield. Soldiers of any army are human beings (yes, even the Einsatzgruppen, though you would be excused for thinking otherwise), they grow tired and need time to rest and recuperate. Russia has no reserves of combat formations left and it’s sending everyone to Ukraine to do battle.

After a few months, these men will be exhausted, both unable and unwilling to press on. There will be no one to replace them, unless Russia sends freshly trained conscripts to the war. Only two scenarios present themselves, then. Either Russian army withdraws from Ukraine, because it’s unable to conduct further operations, or else they send in raw conscripts, who get mauled by the Godzilla Ukrainian army will have become in the meantime and are pushed back by force of arms, with grevious casualties.

These are the two scenarios under which Russian forces will leave Ukraine. This does not necessarily include Crimea or previously occupied Donbass.