•Factors that may determine Tinubu, Atiku, Obi’s fate

As political gladiators crisscross the country preparatory to the 2023 general election, no fewer than 13 governors elected on the ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) from the North are said to be staking all that is required to guarantee its victory in the presidential race.

On the other hand, apart from outgoing governors, those seeking reelection on the ticket of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the north are confident of the standard-bearer of the party, Atiku Abubakar securing the majority of northern voters.

The determination of the 13 outgoing APC governors to fully back APC candidate, Bola Tinubu is hinged on the immediate and long term implications of the outcome of the general election on their individual political career after exiting as two-term governors of their states.

An APC stalwart said: “The 13 Northern governors backing Asiwaju have their back to the wall. They don’t have a chance politically. Asiwaju candidature is their baby and it is in their own interest to support the ticket or they go into political oblivion.

“The problem Atiku will be having is those 13 governors. Atiku will do tremendously well but the presence of those 13 governors in the APC will swing votes in favour of Tinubu.”

In various conversations with the Nigerian Tribune, stalwarts of the APC, PDP, Labour Party (LP) among others, said what will count are the presidential candidates’ personality, spread, ethnicity, religion, antecedents.

Other factors, they note, that will sway votes in favour of candidates are governors’ support, party leadership, ability to accommodate interests, harmonization of stakes, health, campaign agenda, propaganda, sympathy.

For supporters of the APC, its candidate, Tinubu ticks all boxes of criteria to emerge the next president.

As it has been seen thus far, religion and ethnicity will be played up during the forthcoming campaigns.

Central in the optimism of the APC supporters is that Tinubu has the personality to get support across all zones of the country.

They particularly note that Tinubu will get the bulk of the votes of the South-West, while they bank on at least 13 Northern governors to mobilise Northerners to support the Tinubu/Kashim Shettima ticket.

A Tinubu presidency is said to be seen as one that will guarantee the political relevance of some northern politicians.

While the Muslim/Muslim ticket is seen as political beneficial to the Tinubu/Shettima ticket, the ticket still faces opposition from some Christians.

Supporters of Atiku and the PDP hold that the former vice-president has the spread across the six political zones, having contested to be president a number of times.

They also hold that the average Northerner will support their own, noting that with bulk votes from the North, Atiku’s chances are bright.

They counter the argument on the North producing president for another eight years by describing Atiku as a “benevolent Fulani”, adding that the North-East has never produced the president.

A PDP stalwart said: “Atiku’s chances are bright. Atiku is not new to any region in the country. He has the spread the most. Spread is on his side. The assignment is for everyone to hold their different localities and the numbers will come. The North East has never produced president. Moreover, there are worries about Tinubu’s health.”

Several party stalwarts hold that the 2023 presidential contest is between Atiku and Tinubu.


They, however, note that candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso will have a huge chunk of votes in Kano State especially and a some votes across the North but won’t have enough numbers in the South.

Candidate of the Labour party is being seen in some quarters as an Igbo candidate, which some politicians say may count against his ambition to be president, especially amassing votes in the North.

While Obi supporters say the Labour party candidate offers a breath of fresh air, those of other parties say the Labour party will only put up a showing but won’t defeat the APC or PDP.

According to sources, stalwarts of various political parties have identified about 15 factors that will determine who succeeds President Muhammadu Buhari.

Another party man said: “Even among the ardent proponents of Tinubu, the behaviour of Obi is giving Asiwaju unprecedented sympathy among his own people. Contrary to expectation of Obidients, they are doing campaign for Asiwaju.”

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