garfield1:
Sai ALU.tinubu will get 45% in sakwato

garfield1:


Am not hearing anything from edo central

Agboriotejoye:


So all this your Google search is a struggle for 45%
So you agree Atiku will win Sokoto that Buhari won convincingly in 2019. Do you know how massive a loss it will be for APC then?
The question now is if SW votes will be enough to cover for the loss.
Besides, this story was already on fp yesterday
Why repeat it?

Indispensable85:




Labour Party is putting up a strong showing in Edo central now. Majority of the PDP aspirants who lost out in the primaries have all moved to Labour Party in the district. They're helping to split the PDP votes in the district. That's ordinarily a PDP district.

garfield1:


Why are labour members unhappy over the defections

garfield1:


I have always consistently given sokoto and kebbi narrowly to atiku thought it seems things are changing to a 50 50...buhari only won sokoto convincingly in 2015.,he struggled there in 2011,2019.
The story was never on FP.what was on FP was that of 1800 defecting to pdp and that of wurno 3000.pdp gained 1800 and lost 10,000 in two days... Lol

Agboriotejoye:

Struggled with over 100k votes in a PDP state? Ok o
It's the same story. 16th of September in same Wurno. Except you mean defection happened twice same day in same LG.
What is funny is both threads refused to mention any names of the people defecting
You need to know that this election is PDP's to lose. APC won 19 states in 2019 with fifteen of the states in the North. If they lose in 11 out of those 15 states in 2023, the game is over. And it's looking very likely.

garfield1:


Why is obaseki with atiku instead of labour? I think ishan are next to produce guber

Agboriotejoye:

Struggled with over 100k votes in a PDP state? Ok o
It's the same story. 16th of September in same Wurno. Except you mean defection happened twice same day in same LG.
What is funny is both threads refused to mention any names of the people defecting
You need to know that this election is PDP's to lose. APC won 19 states in 2019 with fifteen of the states in the North. If they lose in 11 out of those 15 states in 2023, the game is over. And it's looking very likely.

Okoroawusa:
How come nobody is defecting to Labour Party?

JASONjnr:


Is it until the defect to LP before they can vote for the incoming president of Nigeria?

garfield1:


That is where you get it wrong.tinubu can afford to lose the north and still win.assuming he loses the north by 500,000 and wins the sw by 2million,he wins.the calculation of 2019 is different from 2023 with obi and kwankwaso.tinubu needs at least 8 states in the north while staying close in the remaining 11.mind you,kwankwaso will win at least two of 11,obi will get good votes also.considering that atiku cannot win anywhere in the south,he is out

Aiel123:

Do you reside in the north

M4A1carbine:
So for your Mind you feel say APC get mouth for Sokoto??

I noticed you ask, some "slightly intelligent" questions....trying to "gauge" the voting strengths of other candidates except yours. (Tinubu)

Its pertinent to tell you this, so you dont disgrace yourself further.

At the rate things are going...Tinubu will collapse his structure, into a Peter Obi..or Atiku Political movement.

This is a FACT that stares you guyz in the face constantly...But the disgrace is what you are afraid of.

This race is between ATIKU and Peter Obi....all that Southern Nonsense rants , was because you guyz NEVER saw Peter Obi coming.

But understand this and know peace...Thiefnubuu can NEVER be President...He is just too toxic and useless.

M4A1carbine:
[b]Atiku beat BUHARI "blue-black"....BUHARI used his power of incumbency to retain his seat and presidency.

For me Personally...i want Nigeria to Break, so that everybody will go "solo"

So stop comparing, events of yesterday with what is obtainable now.

APC's last "tsunami movement" was BUHARI. Tinubu doesn't have that "clout", even in his SW...he cant sweep the votes convincingly.

So wake up.[/b]So youbstill believe that Atiku won Buhari till now. This is 2023 already bro.
In all , I say never to Northerner ruling us again in 2023.


Lokan south 2023.

Agboriotejoye:

Hahahaha. Atiku cannot win anywhere in the South? Do you really believe that?
At least let's talk about Delta, Akwa Ibom and Edo states. What about Oyo and Ondo in SW? You're a clown. If Atiku wins the North, it's game over for Tinubu because APC did not win any states in SE/SS and things are looking like they'll remain the same. Now out of 11 states that make up both regions, if LP wins 5 and PDP wins six, and LP or PDP trades second in all states they come first, whatever advantage Tinubu is bringing from SW will be toppled. SE/SS have cumulatively more votes than SW and they sure are not voting for a Muslim Muslim ticket!
Besides, there are some states Buhari either won in 2015 or lost but stayed close in 2019 like Adamawa, Benue, Plateau etc where Atiku will win by very large margins. Tinubu will need to cover those large margins with same SW votes. You see how the permutation is now?

LeoDeKing:

I just tire oh.

And my friend Emeka from Alaigbo, after taking some mkpurimmiri, he will call and be telling me pandora hoebi will get 98% votes from Borno, Sokoto, Bauchi, Yobe and Gombe.

This mkpurimmiri is really causing some serious problems.

garfield1:


It is very certain that benue people won't vote for a fulani man.they hate fulanis.,large numbet of atiku fans are now with obi.ortom is with wike,suswan is aloof so atiku is out.akume is working seriously for tinubu,rev alia popularity will affect tinubu.moreover,benue tends to be pro south.so it is between obi and tinubu..
In plateau,sen representing plateau north is with labour.Jonah jang the political leader of the beroms is with wike.therefore the pdp stronghold of plateau north is divided.dariyeis tilting towards apc/labour plus lalong is campaign DG/contesting for senate so plateau will be shared...

In the se,gap between atiku and Tinubu will be close.atiku will win tinubu in anambra and Enugu but tinubu will topple him in ebonyi and IMO.they will be stalemated in abia.margin of victory can't exceed 200,000
Edo south will go obi.edo central will go atiku but edo north is tinubu.edo north has more votes than edo central.edo has always voted for Yoruba candidates...
With magnus and asari dokubo working for tinubu and wike aloof,nothing for atiku in rivers.same in bayelsa.with akpabio on the ballot and obi dividing votes,narrow margins.same in cross river.only delta will give him a clear win though obi is eating his votes..margin of victory for atiku against tinubu in ss/se won't exceed 500,000.so overall,he still loses...
In the north,he can only hope for big wins in Adamawa while tinubu has big wins in yobe,borno,zamfara

Okoroawusa:
How come nobody is defecting to Labour Party?

Okoroawusa:
How come nobody is defecting to Labour Party?

Agboriotejoye:

Hahahaha. Atiku cannot win anywhere in the South? Do you really believe that?
At least let's talk about Delta, Akwa Ibom and Edo states. What about Oyo and Ondo in SW? You're a clown. If Atiku wins the North, it's game over for Tinubu because APC did not win any states in SE/SS and things are looking like they'll remain the same. Now out of 11 states that make up both regions, if LP wins 5 and PDP wins six, and LP or PDP trades second in all states they come first, whatever advantage Tinubu is bringing from SW will be toppled. SE/SS have cumulatively more votes than SW and they sure are not voting for a Muslim Muslim ticket!
Besides, there are some states Buhari either won in 2015 or lost but stayed close in 2019 like Adamawa, Benue, Plateau etc where Atiku will win by very large margins. Tinubu will need to cover those large margins with same SW votes. You see how the permutation is now?

M4A1carbine:
So for your Mind you feel say APC get mouth for Sokoto??

I noticed you ask, some "slightly intelligent" questions....trying to "gauge" the voting strengths of other candidates except yours. (Tinubu)

Its pertinent to tell you this, so you dont disgrace yourself further.

At the rate things are going...Tinubu will collapse his structure, into a Peter Obi..or Atiku Political movement.

This is a FACT that stares you guyz in the face constantly...But the disgrace is what you are afraid of.

This race is between ATIKU and Peter Obi....all that Southern Nonsense rants , was because you guyz NEVER saw Peter Obi coming.

But understand this and know peace...Thiefnubuu can NEVER be President...He is just too toxic and useless.

Agboriotejoye:

You're a political neophyte. You just keep dropping names as if names win elections. If it's by names, Buhari couldn't have won Kano the way he did in 2019 because the biggest politician from Kano was not with him.
You claim Benue won't vote for Fulani. Yet you somehow believe they will vote for Muslim Muslim. Lol. That's very funny. Even there Revd you mentioned came out to say APC supporters in Benue are moving to LP.
Benue was not pro South in 2015 even with Jonathan on the ballot.
In your mind, you somehow believe Tinubu will win Rivers and Bayelsa? It's obvious you're banking on the Obi effect but the fact is you're too blinded by sentiments to see reality. The Obi you're banking on has been tilting towards Atiku more in his rhetoric than Tinubu. He had said it is nobody's turn!! Which means he does not buy the whole zoning and southern agenda narrative. We all also know who has been saying it's his turn. You can also see how Tinubu's media guys have been hitting Obi hard. If Obi favours them as you claim, don't you think they'll focus more on Atiku than they do Obi? The fact is, Obi is actually a buffer for some people who would have voted along regional grounds for Tinubu if it was only between Tinubu and Atiku. In the final analysis, Tinubu can't go to SE/SS and preach the turn of the South. He will inadvertently be campaigning for Obi with that slogan. So what exactly will he campaign with in SS/SE?
Obi is more aligned towards Atiku. I even suspect part of why Atiku didn't choose Wike as Vice was to pay him back for his mistreatment of Obi that forced the guy out of PDP. Atiku can campaign in SS/SE with his VP a Niger Delta Igbo. What will Tinubu campaign with? Muslim Muslim?
The fact is with your analysis, you're saying Atiku will win the North and South but still lose the election based on Tinubu's overwhelming victory in SW. Abeg, how's that possible?

Peacecore:
You're making sense. You are right when you said that those states like Adamawa that Buhari came close in 2019 is going to be convincingly won by Atiku, yeah! That's true.
Buh you are bias and failed to analyse that fact equally coupled with the fact that you are working for Atiku with Obi's mask.
1. You said that Atiku will win Ondo and Oyo state bcoz he did in 2019. No bro, he contested against his brother buh now he's contending against an ewedu eater.
2. He marked Buhari very close in Lagos but now, Obi has inherited his supporters in Lagos, at least 65_70% of them while APC will likely retain or increase theirs. He scored high in River state buh now, he's in loggerhead with Wike the emperor.
He won christians states in the North when he was contesting against his fellow Muslim but now, there's a powerful, third force christian, Obi. So Benue, Taraba, Plateau, Abj will likely not go his way easily (lemme be euphemic).
You have also forgotten that Kwankwaso is there, a more likable person than him(Atiku), that will make his margin of winning North insignificant. You also forgot that Shettima is there to further divide the margins.
Remember that Atiku won all the SErn states withbwide margin especially Anambra. Now , he's going to lose all of them maybe come a bit close in Enugu only. He won SS convincingly buh now, he may only be certain to win maybe A'ibom,Bayelsa, Delta buh not with wide margin.

garfield1:



Oga,the man with the most correct predictions on nairaland cannot be a neophyte...
Dont get it twisted.benue and plateau won't vote for fulani and will likely not vote for Muslim Muslim.but their number one problem is fulanis not Muslim Muslim ticket so they will look a little bit favourably towards tinubu.historically,they prefer voting for southerners.in 1960-64,they voted for ncnc/nepu.shagari won narrowly there.they voted massively for abiola,voted massively for obj and gej in 2011.in 2015,plateau voted gej while benue went narrowly to buhari though gej won more lgas.it is clear that they prefer southerners...buhari was not just popular in kano,his party was strong structurally.now both atiku and tinubu are not popular.it now boils down to structure and personalities and candidates.the pdp structure in benue and plateau are anti atiku while that of apc are pro tinubu so commonsensically,tinubu will get votes or draw with atiku..
In ss/se,they dont want mm ticket and neither do they want atiku..the structures here again are largely against atiku so it will be close.in ss,strength of a party decides the voting direction...
Tinubu areas of control has more votes.he has more control and manpower so he will garner more votes.if he loses the north by 500k,loses ss/se by 500k and wins se by over a million while getting the two third requirement,he wins.in 1979,awolowo only won in the sw.if he had lost narrowly in the north,he would have won.tambuwal won 11 out of 23 lgas,bala won 7 out of 20.
Mind you I am not saying tinubu will lose the north.I am only saying this is his worst case scenario.a narrow loss up north still gives him victory.his path to victory is essier.ultimately,he will win atiku up north and retire the camerounian looter

Agboriotejoye:


This boy
Most correct prediction how? Remember Edo. You kept on calling Obaseki names but Las Las chop am raw. I warned you then.
So all those years you're calling, the southerner was running on Muslim Muslim ticket abi? I've told you to forget about abiola. He was the candidate of the military establishment then and was running against a Tofa who had almost no support or resources to prosecute his campaign.
That aside, even nothern Christians in APC are against Muslim Muslim ticket. Not to mention the average man on the street. Your argument should be twisted that they prefer southern Christians but more importantly, this APC ticket is a spite on them.
If you say strength of a party decides, which party is strongest in SS/SE?
Tinubu area of control is the SW. The NW governors who deceived him into choosing a Muslim running mate have suddenly gone cold since he didn't make any of them vice and are watching while PDP is mobilizing around them. I repeat, average notherner will not leave a nothern candidate to vote a southerner even if he likes her should be sleeping in the mosque and wearing their cap.
The North is Atiku's to lose. No dey deceive yourself. No candidate can win election by winning only one zone. Not even in a three horse race. A three horse race still demands a candidate wins two zones at least.

garfield1:


Being the best doesnt mean getting it right always afterall I am no spirit no seer.I was the only one that foresaw the victory of uzodinma,yahaya bello,oyetola in 2018,buhari.I was the only one that predicted 25% for buhari in se/ss,Lyon victory,rochas court victory,saraki defeat etc...

Pdp is strongest in ss/se yes but compared to 2019,it is weaker while apc is getting stronger.pdo lost IMO,ebonyi,crs.the party is divided in delta,aks,Edo.the party in Enugu,abia,rivers,crs, anambra is anti atiku..when it was united,the gap between apc and pdp was 2 million,now that there are divisions and lp is in play, maximum you will see is 500k

Agboriotejoye:

So who made you the best? Uzodinma did not win the election. He's the only one known as supreme court governor in Nigeria.
Yahaya Bello rigged
Oyetola did not win too
You called Anambra for APc
Same with Osun
You were not the only one who predicted Saraki's loss nor Buhari's victory
So there's nothing to prove you're the best
PDP is weaker in SS/SE but has become stronger in NC/NE/NW. That's 3 to 2 so it favours them.
APC has become weaker in SS/SE/NC/NE. It can only boast of NW/SW and even NW is more open than it's ever been.
APC is divided in 22 out of 36 States and FCT where it has parallel state excos. APC is actually more divided than PDP just that they're not making as much noise as PDP.
The figures all over the regions favour PDP against APC with the exception of SW.
You're only banking on LP and LP's incursion it's not more than 5 States. APC will also suffer due to LP as it can't use regionalism to contest since Obi is from the South as well.

garfield1:


I was the only one here who predicted hope court victory....is it easy for an ebira to rig out igala? You think rigging is that easy? I was the only one that predicted ouk victory to the senate and akpabio giving 25%..
Mention the states where apc has factions as I always mention that of pdp.
Apc has gained two governors in se and gained more defections.where is the weakness! How is apc weaker in nc? Pdp had zamfara which they lost.apc lost edo and gained crs.even in Adamawa, apc has two senators.