Agboriotejoye:

Lol @Atiku with Obi's mask. Lemme first of all make clear to you that I prefer an Obi presidency. I believe in terms of turn, it's the turn of the SE and also if it's coming South, it should be a southern Christian. Most importantly, a Muslim Muslim ticket is a no no for me. Now, I'm a realist and I know that as things stand today, Obi cannot win the presidential election. That's because his party does not have the spread. Even if unlikely as it is, he wins the majority votes, it will be difficult for him to get 25% in 24 states as things stand now.
1. Some parts of your analysis are true. Tinubu is poised to get more votes in SW than Buhari ever had. But his Muslim Muslim ticket will do him harm in that zone. Yoruba Christians, especially the Pentecostals will definitely be against that ticket. A good number of them will tilt towards Obi definitely, but also, there are those who believe in Atiku and are part of the PDP machinery. While I'm not saying categorically that Atiku will win any state in the SW (I actually think he won't) but I think he'll do well in some states.
2. Obi's votes in the SW and Christian North will also come from people who voted Buhari in 2015 and 2019 too. We all seem to forget that a certain Pastor Osinbajo was running mate to Buhari and it helped to swell his votes among Pentecostals. Such people will vote Obi or Atiku now and rail against a Muslim Muslim ticket definitely. So Obi is not only inheriting Atiku's votes alone but also some of Buhari's. As a matter of fact, I think the reason Tinubu's machinery have railed against Obi recently us because he represents a viable alternative to the Muslim Muslim ticket. Why do you think he had been visiting churches? Is that move against Atiku or Tinubu?
Forget Rivers. PDP will still win Rivers. The margin may not be as you expect but don't forget Rivers did more poorly than Akwa Ibom and Delta in overall votes in 2019. Go and check the figures.
As for the North, forget. Atiku is winning the North solidly. Forget kwankwaso. He even seems tired already. Nothing favors him in the North. Only his ethnocentrism and most champions of ethnocentrism in the North have realised from Buhari's experiment that you need at least one region in there South to win. In any case, Kwankwaso will affect APC more than PDP in the North. The two states where he has the most influence are states APC won with wide margin in 2019. He even said it that his kwankwassiya voted Buhari in 2019. So this votes are actually for APC not PDP.
As for SS and SE, PDP will still do well in those areas. As a matter of fact, APC is poised to perform more poorly than they did in 2019 in those zones due to the Muslim Muslim ticket and the general belief that Tinubu betrayed them in 2015. So I wager APC coming third anywhere LP wins because PDP will either come first or second in those two zones.
So, Obi will affect both PDP and APC in those zones again. Those who are of APC but against Muslim Muslim ticket will vote for Obi same as those who believe it's the South's turn.
Overall, as things stand today, PDP has the biggest spread in all the regions unlike APC which is dead in SS/SE zones, LP nowhere in NW/NE zones.

Peacecore:

1. M_M ticket won't affect the voting pattern in the SW. If you have lived in Yoruba land, then you can know it's true. Ajimobi married a Catholic woman and still a xtian till now. Tinubu is married to a pastor n so many of them. They celebrate ileya together as well as Xmas. Yoruba person would come back from mosque on Friday and go to church with his mother on Sunday. So, forget all these Yoruba xtian mantra, it won't work there.
2. Give Abraham Lincoln APC ticket, he'll lose SE. There's no way Tinubu is affected here rather he gained by having big names in the tickets of APC such Dave Umahi n others.
3. You believe that Atiku would win bcoz he's a Northerner, and you are writing Kwankwaso off knowing full well that he's more lovable than Atiku.
You have also forgotten that APC has been well rooted in the North and Tinubu has more trusted friends than any other southern politicians. This is likely reduce the slogan of preaching " our own " in the North by their leaders.
At the end one candidate will emerge and all these our focast will stop.

Oh Ok!!..cheers bro.

Prince111111:
you no dey see his source everytime? He goes to Google 24/7 to check PDP members decamp to somewhere to make himself happy

Peacecore:
E go good if e do am buh guy I wan ask you something. U dey serious of this thing wey u talk now or say u talk base on emotion.

M4A1carbine:
So for your Mind you feel say APC get mouth for Sokoto??

I noticed you ask, some "slightly intelligent" questions....trying to "gauge" the voting strengths of other candidates except yours. (Tinubu)

Its pertinent to tell you this, so you dont disgrace yourself further.

At the rate things are going...Tinubu will collapse his structure, into a Peter Obi..or Atiku Political movement.

This is a FACT that stares you guyz in the face constantly...But the disgrace is what you are afraid of.

This race is between ATIKU and Peter Obi....all that Southern Nonsense rants , was because you guyz NEVER saw Peter Obi coming.

But understand this and know peace...Thiefnubuu can NEVER be President...He is just too toxic and useless.

ObituaryYebo:

Let shame catch you for once now

7000 members just decamped to APC in Sokoto that's predominantly PDP state but funny enough I never read any news of any members decamping to Labour in Vain party



No body dey decamp to Labour in Vain Party ?


Nobodey dey fall for all Bitter Pandora Obituary lies on CNN

Agboriotejoye:

All these your audio predictions, where did they happen cause I'm not aware. You're just an urchin who supports anything APC no matter how hopeless. When it works, you start to think you are smart. You predicted APC for Anambra, Edo, Osun Ekiti, Bayelsa, Ondo. None of the above did you ever predict against APC so what exactly do you mean by you're the best at making predictions.
Even your present analysis, you have not been to the North yet you are arguing with people who have been there and see what's going on.
I have given you example of two states I've been to, where the APC guber candidates are not attaching the pics of Tinubu to their campaign posters while that of the PDP attached the pics of Atiku. An average Joe knows that Muslim Muslim ticket will be a hard sell in Christian dominated areas which makes Tinubu look like a jihadist. You're the only one who calls himself an analyst and believes it does not matter.
Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Katsina, Kaduna, Delta, Rivers are examples of states where APC is factionalized. Do you want to contest that fact?
It is funny you count defections as indicative of anything at all. Did you see the Ebonyi rally today? Is that not one of the states you're hoping on in SE? How can you even expect the average Igbo to vote for Tinubu and with a Muslim Muslim ticket for that matter? You think it was by mistake he did not visit SE during APC primaries?
APC is weaker in SE, NC due to Muslim Muslim ticket. Are you also debating that?

Agboriotejoye:

Lol. I don't know why people start to refer to mixed faith marriage in a bid to defend same faith ticket. How it take correlate? Look, most SW Christians are Pentecostals and while they have no problem with a Muslim emerging President, they surely will have a problem with a ticket that relegates Christians. For example, do you realize the CAN President who stood against Muslim Muslim ticket is Ayokunle a Yoruba? Same with PFN, the Chair is Wale Oke, Yoruba as well. In fact, PFN is majorly Yoruba. Note also that Abioye of winners has also spoken against it. What I'm pointing out to you is that an extreme ticket will not be easily taken among SW Pentecostals. They have no problem with Tinubu a Muslim running but picking a Muslim Vice from the North will not sit well with them. That's why you see even Tinubu has been pushing that narrative on Muslim Muslim should be downplayed because he knows how it will affect SW voting pattern.
Secondly, you are right that APC can never win SE but you seem to forget they have been making decent progress in the region. Now, they are set to lose all that modest progress with the Muslim Muslim. If 25% is what they are after in SE/SS, Muslim Muslim makes it more difficult
Lastly, a southerner has never defeated a northerner in the North. Kwankwaso does not have the spread of PDP in the north which makes Atiku the frontline Northern candidate. Besides, it is obvious Kwankwaso has lost steam. But aside that, Kwankwaso will eat into APC stronghold which is the NW where they have 6 out of the 7 states and where Buhari won all 7 states in 2019. Any progress Atiku makes in the NW is a plus for him just as any progress by Kwankwaso is a minus for Tinubu's APC.
True @ your last statement

M4A1carbine:
By the Time the "Muguuu" sees that he is inconsequential...he will forfeit the presidency and claim southern solidarity. Or he will collapse his "so called propaganda structure" and support the same Atiku , they called Akthiefku....

[b]Mark this ...
[/b]

I dont give lectures...deduce events as they unfold...

Peacecore:
@bolded is exactly an affirmation I want to get from you, buh why do you think that a formidable force like Tinubu will colapse his structure to Obi's or Atiku? So that I'm being curious but we should always be open to learn. Just gimme the facts.

M4A1carbine:
I dont give lectures...deduce events as they unfold...

garfield1:


My prediction in anambra was cruise.it was only edo that I failed.in Osun,I wasn't sure thats why I didnt open any thread.
Predicting a court victory for uzodinma is extra ordinary.I even did it before mbaka prophesied.there are times I predicted against apc like in ondo and kogi partially.
You haven't shown how apc is weak in se/nc except you dont know what weakness is.obi supporters are going rallies in all the cities.even in yola,they will get crowd so it means nothing...
The way Buhari was viewed in 2019 is how tinubu is viewed in se/ss because of mm ticket.everyone said buhari would lose nc.they said buhari won't see 5% in ss/se.I repeat,the strength of votes in ss/se is tied to the strength of parties.do not be deceived by sentiments.a lot of those campaigning against tinubu will bote him on election day.apc fielded strong and popular legislative candidates in ss/se who will attract votes for tinubu.apc has a lot of gladiators and warriors who will force votes for tinubu...

You dont even know what you are talking.you dont know what factions means.the apc faction opposed to folarin has joined accord and all are working for tinubu.the lai Mohammed faction joined sdp and some have started returning.I challenge you to mention the other faction in katsina.in pdp,we have majigiri and lado factions.in Kaduna,there is no faction.I challenge you to mention them.in delta,the ogboru faction has joined apga.keyamo has been pacified.it is only in Osun that there is a faction but even pdp is fafyionslised.so,you are back to square one son

Peacecore:

1. I'm not basing my point on mixed marriage but the general way of life of the westerners. It doesn't even happen in any other part of the country except in SW. Nothing like Yoruba xtian.
2. Talking about losing SE is natural. SE is more concerned about faith but " onye awusa ozo". Invariably APC will lose some supporters not bcoz of m_m ticket but bcoz of Buhari misrule buh will still make it up with the new support base like Dave Umahi n co. Atiku is major loser here bcoz Obi has already handcapped him in his strong base. Kwankwaso will likely win Kano, followed by Tinubu. Kastina, Zamfra,n larger part of Kaduna are traditionally APC base, though there will be depletion due to Kwankwaso and Atiku being son of the soil. What happens that can make a political party lose in their strong base is mostly strong campaign by the opponent buh Kwankwaso doesn't have that kind of force to effect much unless Buhari, EL_Rufai, Ganduje n co fail to work for him genuinely.
3. NE, Atiku's zone is being shared with Shettima and Kwankwaso as well. The two largest of them by voting strength, Bornu and Yobe are APC states traditionally. All the Igbos in Lagos that voted for Atiku will go for Obi making it now w fight for survival among the Yoruba population. When Wike said he wants to fight, he won't fold his hands and watch knowing the consequences of Atiku winning the election.
Forget, una too the hype Atiku for North. Dem no value there. Na south be hin power politically. Na y Omokri dey cry on top Obi mata everyday instead of the ruling party mata.

Agboriotejoye:


This boy
So when your prediction fails it is cruise but when it is luckily right, you're the best. You said it that Oyetola will win Osun. If you deny again, I'll show you evidence.
There's nothing extraordinary in your prediction. Even there SC tactically admitted their wrong. So I don't see how predicting an error is something to brag about.
That's a lie. You didn't predict against APC in Ondo and Kogi. You claimed APC will win. You've never predicted a loss for APC in any election except if you're challenged.
I've shown you how APC is weak in NC. APC have statutorily foregone two states in NC based on the MM ticket. They have only four states to vie for. Losing two states in a zone before election starts is a weakness.
In SE, Tinubu is a hard sell. I suspect he's even worse than Buhari to most SE electorates due to his role in bringing Buhari to power. Add that to MM and you have a disaster as far as SE is concerned.
Buhari was able to do a lot of rigmarole in the SE and NC due to manual voting. Electronic voting will make such difficult now. Tinubu is more hated than Buhari in SE. That's a fact. Adding MM ticket to it shows a very weak projection for him. The ANAP polls gave him 0 in SE.
Ok. So when factions defect in APC it's nothing to worry about but when the defect in PDP, it's the end of the world. You're a funny dude.
Katsina has the Inuwa faction while in Kaduna, there's the Shaaban faction which rejected the state Congress. That's minus others who defected after the primaries.

garfield1:


My son,the hon shaaban is from kano not Kaduna.you dont even know what you are saying.the only faction in kano was the shekarau faction.in Kaduna,no one challenging the apc chapter except you mean irrelevant aggrieved failed aspirants.inuwa is the immediate past ssg to masari.he was with masari camp till primarieshe is not claiming any faction and is even thinking of defecting alongside his godfather mangal...I never said defections aren't affecting apc but they affect pdp.over 10,000 has defected to sokoto pdp while pdp has lost over 30,000.,pdp will only make gains if they aren't losing members as well or l9se only a few...

You still haven't told us how apc is weaker in nc.you can't just stay in your lonely mudhoise and assume rubbish.apc has 5 governors,dying pdp one apc obi has overrun benue.benue and plateau hate fulanis and APC is seems stronger than pdp there...
Since inec switch to bvas and electronic collation in 2020,apc has done better than ever in ss/se than before.where they lost, they come close...hopefully,we would have reruns before 2023...
You shot yourself in the foot by using anap polls.tinubu had 0 but your atiku had 1 and I predicted that the margin will be close yesterday in se.tinubu had 2 and atiku had 6,another close margins.even though atiku won ne/nw but tinubu came close.in nc,tinubu had 16 with obi while your atiku had 9 but you were busy making noise about how apc is hated there...childishness...ask yourself if tinubu is so hated in se,why are apc not losing members? It is pdp that is losing...the anap polls overall placed tinubu ahead of atiku just like most polls.

Agboriotejoye:


This boy
You don't know shaaban in Kaduna? He was the aspirant who rejected the primaries that produced Sani. He has his own faction in Kaduna just as inuwa in Katsina. It is when it becomes the turn of APC that you remember some people are not relevant. Anyway whether they are relevant or not, the fact is that APC is split in those states.
Where did you get 30000 defections in Sokoto state? Is it the audio defections that Google is giving you without names of defectors and random pics? This boy sha.
Benue and Plateau hate APC for empowering Fulani through Buhari. APC got those governors due to Sai Baba of 2015. NC was a PDP stronghold before then and it is going back.
See how you're lying on ANAP poll. Both Atiku and Tinubu are tied second in the poll and the NC has the highest number of undecided respondents. Most of those undecided are people who are thinking of choosing between the big two and surely the MM ticket will push them towards atiku.
That polls shows a big loss for APC cumulatively if you note that NE/NW which are their strongholds were lost to Atiku. This shows a net gain of 15 points which cancels out Tinubu's 14 points in the SW. In terms of numbers, if Obi can get 12% in Tinubu's stronghold, that means Obi affected Tinubu more negatively than he did Atiku which is what I've been telling you.
Overall, Atiku toppling APC in both NW and NE shows he'll have the numbers on his side in the election.
Obi will affect Tinubu's numbers in the SW which is his main block. It's what I've been telling you that Obi will affect Tinubu too. That's why his media urchins have been attacking him.
Thus Atiku will win the majority votes from the ANAP poll and thus is in pole position to carry the day.

Agboriotejoye:

1. Are you sure there's nothing like Yoruba xtian? You've not thought about why votes in SW are usually split. You think it's because of foreigners? While it's true that Yoruba tend to downplay religion in politics, extremism is usually frowned upon. MM ticket is an extremist ticket and that's why you see a good number of influential pastors from the West speaking up against it. But I won't say more than that. The results will show who is right.
2. I agree that Atiku has more to lose based on events in SE. But Tinubu is also a greater loser. Like I told you, Buhari got 25% in 2019 from 3 or 4 SE states. With Obi on the ballot and his MM ticket, Tinubu can kiss those 25% goodbye. All this talk of umahi and hope are castles in the air. They won't do jack when it's showtime. Rigging which is the major instrument they can use will be tougher with BVAS.
3. I find it interesting you surrender Kano to Kwankwaso and think Tinubu will come second after him. Picture it. Those who will vote Kwankwaso, did they vote Buhari in 2019 or Atiku? If Kwankwaso wins Kano, it's a major loss for APC and bet it with me that whoever wins Kano, PDP will come second if not first.
Buhari is tired. But besides that, don't expect notherners to listen to someone who is on his way out of office. He's still very popular in the North no doubt but his popularity is basically because he is perceived to represent northern interest, frugal and most importantly a very good Muslim. Tinubu does not fit into any of those so if you think notherners will vote for him simply because Buhari asked them to, you must have underestimated the political understanding of notherners. El-Rufai and Ganduje are overrated. They have never won anything election of their own accord save for Sai Chanji that swept them into office in 2015.
4. It is funny you actually think Shettima will make Atiku lose NE. That's very funny. Let's wait and see. Atiku is a notherner. Just because they prefer another notherner to him does not mean they hate him or will prefer an outsider to him. He's poised to harvest votes in the North like he's never done. Watch and see.
Wike does not have critical elements of PDP in Rivers behind him. Former govs, senators, House members are not on his side like you think. In fact, I wager that even if Obi wins Rivers, Atiku will still come a close second. Anyways, Rivers did not deliver votes in 2019 like Delta and Akwa Ibom did. Total votes was just a little above 500k. That's a poor return for a state with the sixth voting population. If that repeats itself in 2023, all of Wike's noise will be inconsequential ultimately.

garfield1:


There is no shaaban faction in Kaduna except you mean camp.he is an aggrieved member who has gone to court,nothing more.same in katsina.there is only one apc faction in both states recognized by nwc and inec.

You are fatal liar,such a disgrace.benue and plateau do not want another fulani.lalong and ortom 2015 victories were not because of buhari.jang went against the zoning arrangement in plateau while the tivs punished suswan for owing them salary.ask yourself why apc didnt win gombe and taraba,ask yourself why buhari has never won plateau.like I told you yesterday,both states prefer voting southerners than northerners.those undecided voters won't prefer atiku another fulani who will empower fulanis to terrorize them.they will rather manage a southern Muslim who is liberal and a kanuris afterall their issue is with fulanis not Muslims.mind you even before buhari came,fulanis have been troubling them for years.it only escalated in benue under buhari...

Obi is affecting atiku more.atiku strongholds of se/ss is totally gone.he scored less than 10% where he won outrightly in 2019 while he is only affecting tinubu in sw yet tinubu is in the lead.half of obi fans in nc are atiku people boy.atiku has a narrow lead in ne/nc compared to the flogging in the south.tinubu is staying close to him in all areas while tinubu is gapping him in sw.

The calculation is between atiku and tinubu.atiku is narrowly leading in core north while tinubu massively leads him in sw.so if we translate it to votes,atiku will lead by 500,000 in the north while tinubu leads by over 2 million in sw.atiku leads Tinubu by less than 200,000 in se/ss..
Again tinubu has more chances of getting more votes and widening the gap.the gap in the north can't become wide.the apc structure is far bigger than pdp and lacks presence in several states plus atiku lacks the loyalist nor popularity to garner more.in the sw,tinubu will widen his gap,only obi can reduce the gap.in ss/se nothing can change except he reconciles with wike.apc had desperate and warring chieftains who will do any thing to get votes from akpabio,oshiomhole,agege,sylva,Abe etc.pdp had laid back members who aren't ready to get their hands dirty for atiku and half of them are anti atiku.
Like I told you,a narrow lose in core north and a massive win in sw is enough for tinubu yabaleft fellow

Peacecore:

1.Thank God that 1&2 has been settled except where you're writing off people like OUK, Dave Umahi n co off. Go back to 2019 results and see how it works. OUK won Senate seat n Buhari won two of the LGs that made up his zone. Chinedu Ogah of Ebonyi state was the only opposition member that won a seat in Ebonyi. PMB won his LG out of the two LG that makes up his constituency. I don't see how you will expect Tinubu to lose Dave's LG at least. Anyway, let's leave that
2. Kwankwaso was in PDP in 2019 and worked vigorously for Atiku. He was able to convince people to vote for him including those that failed to yield yo his plea. Now Kwankwaso has gone with those supporters to another party. I'm also expecting some people to defy Buhari to vote for Kwankwaso this time. But looking at it in that Angle, who lose all his supporters? PDP is literally dead in Kano after the exit of Kwankwaso. The only prominent member in PDP now in Kano is the recently defected Shekau n he's not a match to Kwankwaso n Ganduje. Never refer to EL_Rufai is an overated politician in the North. Go check his winning margin in 2019 governorship election. That's not Buhari on the ballot buh EL_Rufai.
3. I didn't say that Atiku will certainly lose NE buh the margin won't be high if he wins it. Is Shettima not a northerner as well? Certainly two of them will win their states buh what's the voting strength of Adamawa compared with Bornu? Yobe is traditionally an APC state and pdp doesn't have enough presence there to effect much change in voting pattern since 90s. Lemme me tell. APC will lose Enugu even if their presidential candidate comes from SE or even Enugu that's what we talk about good presence or party structure is all about.
4. Atiku didn't just lose to Buhari, He lose to OBj, a southerner as well. A Northerner in APC will likely win PDP southerner in Lagos due to party structure. Oshiomole can easily win Edo North but he can't easily in Edo central even when the candidate is from there. It also happens in US presidential election. Roberts county, Texas is fanatically a republican region. Same with most southern US states, likewise Vermont which has been voting for democrats since 2004. Blue wall states in US are those states that has consistently being voting for the democrats no matter what and they're mostly northern states like Pennsylvania, Michigan , New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Washington etc. United States is electorally mature but it has history behind it.Oklahoma can't just open their eyes to vote for democrats in a presidential election, same as Missouri and Southern Carolina( except in 1076 when Jimmy Carter ran for pregnancy). This happens in several other S'states in US. Therefore Atiku will found it difficult to have good outing in Bornu, Yobe,and somehow in Kebbi state , and if fail to win thise atates convincingly, it will be very poor for him in NE. It's politics, it's normal, thanks.

Agboriotejoye:


This boy
Whether it's camp or faction. All na grammar. Division is division.
Did you have a meeting with Plateau and Benue and they told you they don't want Fulani? You just make up things in your head and spill them out like fact. Who gave the rule of zoning in Plateau state? There's nothing like that. Is Suswam the only governor to owe salary? Yeye Bello is owing massively yet he won second term. Even Ortom is a serial salary debtor yet he won reelection. Are you saying Taraba and Gombe pay salaries and respect zoning that's why APC didn't win in those states? The fact is Sai Chanji changed a lot of things politically in the North. They call it the Buhari tsunami. One of the best performing governors then in the North lost his senatorial ticket and his party lost his guber in Niger state.
Buhari has never won Plateau because of his reputation as a Muslim fanatic not necessarily because he's Fulani. Yaradua won there. Same with Atiku. Benue voted Buhari against Jonathan in 2015 so what are you saying exactly?
The fact is Plateau and Benue are basically Christian dominated and will be repulsed by Muslim Muslim ticket. They are the most insulted by that ticket. The VP ticket should have gone to a northern Christian yet it went to a fanatical kanuri Muslim with links to book Haram.
The ANAP polls show that only Obi affects Atiku in the SS/SE while Tinubu is affected by the trio of Obi, Atiku and Kwankwaso in all the zones. For example, Obi eats into Atiku's base in SS/SE while he eats into Tinubu's base in SW/ NC. Also, Atiku and Kwankwaso eats into Tinubu's base in NE/NW while Tinubu is not able to eat into any base but performs worse than Buhari did in SS, SE,NC,NE and NW. Thus, Tinubu has a net loss compared to 2019 while Atiku has a net gain with Obi being the highest gainer.
You have been hyping Obi's effect on Atiku in the South since. Now that it emerges he's also affecting Tinubu, you're looking to narrow it down to the two. Well, even if you do, Atiku still has the upper hand. He outperforms Tinubu in 4 out of 6 zones while Tinubu outperforms him in two zones. Atiku outrightly wins 2 zones while Tinubu can only boast of one zone. In terms of margin, Tinubu's only outright win in SW by 14 points is cancelled out by Atiku's win in NE/NW of 15 points. NW and NE are the largest and third largest voting blocs and with a massive 15 point, he can cover any loss in SW and even the second place tie Tinubu purportedly has in NC since NC is the fifth largest bloc. So the margins overall favors Atiku
All those your calculations are wrong because the structure of APC is more reliant on the governors who are at their wit's end with how they're struggling with internal issues in their domain. Most of them relied on Chanji tsunami to get into office and have little political clout in their own rights. The voting sentiments in the North which is pro-north first favors Atiku heavily.

garfield1:

Are you ok? Why do you revel in talking rubbish? If lalong won because of buhari,why didnt buhari win? If they see buhari as a fanatic,why should they accept lalong they accused of being sympathetic to fulani? Infact,lalong should have lost boy.same in benue
However you look at it,obi affects atiku almost entirely.most of his supporters were atikulators,his major base are pdp areas.without obi,se/ss goes to atiku but with obi,he loses it massively and Tinubu stays close to him.tinubu doesnt need the 25% there afterall buhari in 2015 didnt get it.umahi and uzodinma can try to get it,no one csn do that for atiku there.most of obi fans in west were pdp/atiku people.pdp votes are now slashed and Tinubu is getting bloc votes against atiku...north central that would have gone to atiku is now divided with anap giving it to obi and Tinubu...

The north east is not the third biggest voting bloc,the ss is from 1999.highest votes the ne had given is 5 mil in 2011.ss gave 7 mil in 2003 and 2011.ss gave 5.5 mil in 2015 and 3.3 in 2019.nc is no 4 vote voting bloc.ne is 5th.tinubu win in sw neutralizes nw/ne considering that borno and yobe will give him bloc votes.again in 2015,total northern votes was 20 mil,in 2019 15 mil.with Buhari out and north not too keen on retaining power,turnout will be lower.his win in nc will cancel out atiku narrow wins in se/ss and give him a narrow lead.obi will now be the problem..with obi losing woefully in ne/nw and drawing nc with tinubu,tinubu wins.the election is between tinubu and obi.
The anap polls know why tinubu is placed second.with the doggedness of shettima and kanuris filing behind tinubu,it will be tighter in ne thats if tinubu doesnt win.tinubu will surely increase the gap in sw,only obi can pursue him.in se/ss,apc are not lacking in dogged politicians and electoral gladiators that will hunt for votes.the bvas will make rigging harder but there will always be rigging and mainly for tinubu...

On a final note,let me remind you of the revelations made this week by cupp about voters inflation in apc states and particularly in uzodinma ward.need I remind you that the firm that produces most of inec sensitive materials is owned by senator sani musa of apc,someone tinubu supported for apc chair...

Agboriotejoye:

1. Buhari won some of those places because he was contesting against a fellow northener. With Obi on the ballot and MM ticket of APC, you can kiss all those places bye bye. ANAP polls show Tinubu got a massive 0 in SE. That is why I am telling you some of the Buhari votes in SE will go to Obi. Obi will affect both Atiku and Tinubu in SE/SS. Tinubu can and will most likely lose OUk, Dave and even Hope's LG. BVAS has thrown rigging out the window.

2. Go and find out very well. Kwankwaso's followers voted Buhari in 2019. Kwankwaso said it after the presidential when Ganduje was bragging about the results. It reflected in the guber when Ganduje actually lost. Those votes Buhari got in Kano, a substantial portion will shift to Kwankwaso and a good number too to Atiku via the shekarau effect. In Kano, only shekarau can stand up to Kwankwaso. Ganduje does not have any clout. He benefited from the Buhari tsunami of 2015 and Kwankwaso's support. He actually lost in 2019 guber!! PDP now has Shekarau and the Abacha family in Kano so they're not dead as you claim. El-Rufai has never vied for nor won any election before 2015 and Kd was a strong PDP state before then. He even said it that he wasn't thinking of running for guber till Buhari asked him to. El-Rufai does not have the clout you think he does. He's just like Wike. A lot of mouth action and little influence. His son was even praising Atiku recently on Twitter while claiming the British left the North at the top of the political ladder in Nigeria. He can't and shouldn't be trusted by any Southerner especially if he doesn't have any interest to gain.

3. APC will win Enugu if they zone their presidential candidate to SE. Who knew LP before now in SE. But LP is already displacing PDP in its traditional stronghold all because of Obi's candidacy. Never underestimate the power of identity in politics. NE will always prefer presidency to Vice. NE has six states. You're basing your analysis on only three forgetting the remaining three. Taraba will not vote a MM ticket for example because they are mainly Christian and is a PDP stronghold while bauchi will definitely queue behind a northern ticket as usual. Tinubu went to Gombe yesterday. Go and listen to what he said.
4. You're making a fatal mistake by comparing voting trends in US with that of Nigeria. Voting sentiments in Nigeria have to do with ethnicity, religion, identity etc. It is unlike US where the parties are like a religion with clear ideologies and manifestos which the people easily identify with. The Democrat controlled states are states that have liberal ideologies like abortion rights, high taxes, environmental, minority rights and social support.
Republican states are more Conservative in ideologies. They promise lower taxes, strong immigration policies, smaller governments, traditional family views and are more religious inclined.
In Nigeria, parties are not driven by ideology. That's why our politicians basically defect once a certain party does not favor them. What exactly does APC stand for? What about PDP? How's LP different from them? So if a presidential candidate that's a lagosian should emerge from PDP against a notherner in APC for example, you can be sure PDP will win presidential at least in Lagos. Are you aware Jonathan beat Ribadu of ACN in 2011 in Lagos? What about 2007? Yaradua beat Atiku of AC in same Lagos. Talk less of a Lagosian. Our politics is not like US politics bro. Demographics play an important part in US politics too but identity is not foremost there like it is here.