obailala:
You still dont get the point do you? I'm not here to argue PDP vs APC. The OP said ECA was a function of oil price and querried why ECA was dropping despite higher prices than benchmark. My point focuses strictly on that; I pointed out that in addition to oil price, ECA accruals are also influenced by production volumes. Production volumes have been far below expectation in the last few years owing to different factors (pipe vandalisation, COVID19, govt failures etc.)

Once again, I'm not here trying to argue PDP vs APC or whether it is govt's fault that production volumes are down. All I tried to point out is simply that oil price alone does not determine what goes into the ECA; oil production volume is also an important factor which the OP obviously failed to recognise.

And that's why I'm pointing out to you that ECA does not have any legal framework that says you can only put money in it when you exceed certain parameters. It is an initiative of OBJ to save excess coming from crude oil based on budget benchmark. Crude oil production is not just conjured. It is a function of govt business development in the oil sector. So you can't excuse govt based on crude production it set by itself. Your excuse of pipeline vandalism and covid is not tenable. Pipeline vandalism is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria. We're also not talking about the covid period here.
Ajuri also failed to put into account that Excess crude account was depleted by the agitations of the governors. He also failed to put into perspective that in the first 8 years of PDP govt, oil price never exceeded $65? You can't pick and choose who to debunk and say you're not getting into the argument of who is worse between PDP and APC.
Ajuri pushed a narrative the op is countering. You alluded to the fact that APC is a failure, then claimed what Ajuri said it's the whole truth which is obviously not.

Agboriotejoye:

And that's why I'm pointing out to you that ECA does not have any legal framework that says you can only put money in it when you exceed certain parameters. It is an initiative of OBJ to save excess coming from crude oil based on budget benchmark. Crude oil production is not just conjured. It is a function of govt business development in the oil sector. So you can't excuse govt based on crude production it set by itself. Your excuse of pipeline vandalism and covid is not tenable. Pipeline vandalism is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria. We're also not talking about the covid period here.
Ajuri also failed to put into account that Excess crude account was depleted by the agitations of the governors. He also failed to put into perspective that in the first 8 years of PDP govt, oil price never exceeded $65? You can't pick and choose who to debunk and say you're not getting into the argument of who is worse between PDP and APC.
Ajuri pushed a narrative the op is countering. You alluded to the fact that APC is a failure, then claimed what Ajuri said it's the whole truth which is obviously not.

Excess crude sales revenue is what goes into the ECA (that's the simple idea behind the ECA). In the last few years, there hasnt been any excess, rather we've had deficits; so you cant expect revenue to accrue into the ECA when there isnt an excess. This is the summary and TRUTH of the whole story; it doesnt matter whether it is Ajuri or Tonye that said it.

obailala:
Excess crude sales revenue is what goes into the ECA (that's the simple idea behind the ECA). In the last few years, there hasnt been any excess, rather we've had deficits; so you cant expect revenue to accrue into the ECA when there isnt an excess. This is the summary and TRUTH of the whole story; it doesnt matter whether it is Ajuri or Tonye that said it.

That's not true. In 2018-2019, there was excess based on budget benchmark and the ECA did not improve. Go check it.
Excess crude sales going into the ECA is not backed by any law. It is an initiative. A president can decide to put money in it or decide to not put any. There's no law mandating a president to do so.
That's the point of the story and why you can make excuse of crude production too low for the present govt. Crude production is the govt's responsibility through NNPc. You can't use failure to do your job as an excuse why you're not making money. That's my point.

Agboriotejoye:

That's not true. In 2018-2019, there was excess based on budget benchmark and the ECA did not improve. Go check it.
Excess crude sales going into the ECA is not backed by any law. It is an initiative. A president can decide to put money in it or decide to not put any. There's no law mandating a president to do so.
That's the point of the story and why you can make excuse of crude production too low for the present govt. Crude production is the govt's responsibility through NNPc. You can't use failure to do your job as an excuse why you're not making money. That's my point.

Whether the ECA is backed by law or not is inconsequential and irrelevant to the point we're making. The idea behind the ECA is that excess oil revenue will accrue into the account but since there hasn't been any excess revenue, you cant expect funds to accrue into the account from thin air. You keep saying that in 2018-19 there was excess; are you suggesting that in this period Nigeria made more money from crude sales than was bpredicted in the budget? Would be pleased to know where you got that info from; kindly share your source... and please whilst showing us how oil price was high, also do well to show us the volume of oil produced in the period.

LIke I said before, there are several reasons Nigeria's production volume is far below target and these include, vandalism, insecurity, Covid19 effects, govt failure etc. But the point which I will keep repeating until you accept it is that the ECA accruals are a function of oil price and oil volume (it's not dependent on only oil price). If oil price is 20% higher than the benchmark but production volume is 30% less, there will be no excess. THis is basic mathematics and you can't twist this fact with your APC vs PDP politics.

You are also not sincere if that is what you accuse him of doing. If you are really sincere you should have marched the volume of crude oil sold during these years with the prices.

dettolgel:
Oga I did not see how the things you wrote there are direct response to the issue presented by the op.

Let me help you, for instance the op gave the amount of bench mark for 2021 and 2022 as 40+ and 60+ dollars respectively. A reasonable response would be "either is figure are correct or wrong." if wrong you present the actual figures.

The op gave the figures for the prices of crude oil for the 2 years he listed month by month. Your counterpoint would have been providing figures that counter that if you believe he was wrong.

But nope, you chose to write something that brings no fact to the table.

Given how some of your guys reason it is now clear to me why our politicians have been able to pull the mess they pull year after year because most of the people can even reason themselves out a problem.

As for op what I find problematic is the fact that he used just 2 years oil prices to buttress his point. Though I am not aware what the benches marks and price oil were between 2015 and 2020 but omitting it might be an indication of the op keeping away information that might undermine his position on the issue.

If I were you that is where I will start rather than the full text of nothingness that you wrote.

No wonder some people go write full book collect extra sheets for exam still get D.

Penaldo:

These are raw facts

Tonye shpuld stop tryong to play on the intelligence of the people. His attempt at debunking is just a sleigh of hand. Why use naira when it is convenient as against the dollar which was what Ajuri used?

1. He didn't deny that the ECA rose to US$107 billion which was depleted down to US$2 billion by the PDP but wants to make out that depleting US$ 2.1 billion to. US$30 million is profligate.

2. US$ 1 billion in 2015 is around N180 billion while same US$ 1 billion in 2021 was around N 450 billion and N 680 billion in 2022. Using dollars convey a better picture.

There is really nothing worthwhile to use in defending the PDP. The subsidy as a whole even for APC regime is one big scam!!!

In a normal, sane democracy there is just no way the ruling APC can and should be re-elected no matter who is contesting.
It is just not done, to continue with a party that has failed so badly.
Doing so will ratify bad governance for the foreseeable future and nullify all the democratic gains of a change of government in 2015.

obailala:
Whether the ECA is backed by law or not is inconsequential and irrelevant to the point we're making. The idea behind the ECA is that excess oil revenue will accrue into the account but since there hasn't been any excess revenue, you cant expect funds to accrue into the account from thin air. You keep saying that in 2018-19 there was excess; are you suggesting that in this period Nigeria made more money from crude sales than was bpredicted in the budget? Would be pleased to know where you got that info from; kindly share your source... and please whilst showing us how oil price was high, also do well to show us the volume of oil produced in the period.

LIke I said before, there are several reasons Nigeria's production volume is far below target and these include, vandalism, insecurity, Covid19 effects, govt failure etc. But the point which I will keep repeating until you accept it is that the ECA accruals are a function of oil price and oil volume (it's not dependent on only oil price). If oil price is 20% higher than the benchmark but production volume is 30% less, there will be no excess. THis is basic mathematics and you can't twist this fact with your APC vs PDP politics.

Why don't you check it out? The facts are publicly available. 2017 average crude price was 50 while the budget benchmark was 42, while that of 2018 was 65 for budget benchmark of 51. The govt responded by increasing budget benchmark to 60 in 2019 due to the massive difference in 2018. That's why I told you that it's an initiative of the govt to save in ECA or not. OBJ at $40 created ECA. Buhari at $65 chose to increase benchmark the following year instead of looking to improve on ECA.
Throughout 2017-2018, ECA hardly improved.
So what's your excuse this time around?
It's simply a matter of economic management capability.
You just keep rehashing these excuses. Insecurity especially in the Niger Delta is not a new thing. Neither is vandalism. Yet some governments were able to save in ECA. Drop in production level is a challenge govt has to deal with. It's not a factor beyond its means to control. The price and OPEC quota is beyond its means but not production level. So giving excuses for low production level is a very weak and self-defeatist argument.
If Ajuri is right as you say, then you can't blame GEJ for sharing ECA or OBJ for spending $16bn on power etc. Everyone can generate their excuses for failure. It's whether the excuse is tenable or not that matters.

TonyeBarcanista:



Tonye Barcanista is a political analyst and social commentator. He writes on Nairaland.com and @TonyeBarcanista on Twitter

Tonye may have to tell us if he is for Atiku or neutral on that matter

Agboriotejoye:

Why don't you check it out? The facts are publicly available. 2017 average crude price was 50 while the budget benchmark was 42, while that of 2018 was 65 for budget benchmark of 51. The govt responded by increasing budget benchmark to 60 in 2019 due to the massive difference in 2018. That's why I told you that it's an initiative of the govt to save in ECA or not. OBJ at $40 created ECA. Buhari at $65 chose to increase benchmark the following year instead of looking to improve on ECA.
Throughout 2017-2018, ECA hardly improved.
So what's your excuse this time around?
It's simply a matter of economic management capability.
You just keep rehashing these excuses. Insecurity especially in the Niger Delta is not a new thing. Neither is vandalism. Yet some governments were able to save in ECA. Drop in production level is a challenge govt has to deal with. It's not a factor beyond its means to control. The price and OPEC quota is beyond its means but not production level. So giving excuses for low production level is a very weak and self-defeatist argument.
If Ajuri is right as you say, then you can't blame GEJ for sharing ECA or OBJ for spending $16bn on power etc. Everyone can generate their excuses for failure. It's whether the excuse is tenable or not that matters.

So after all I've hammered on the influence of oil volume, you still came back to tell me about how oil price was $65 in 2018?.... You just proved what I suspected all along; you haven't bothered to read anything I wrote all along, you've just wanted to make an argument, an APC vs PDP argument. I give up!

obailala:
Whether the ECA is backed by law or not is inconsequential and irrelevant to the point we're making. The idea behind the ECA is that excess oil revenue will accrue into the account but since there hasn't been any excess revenue, you cant expect funds to accrue into the account from thin air. You keep saying that in 2018-19 there was excess; are you suggesting that in this period Nigeria made more money from crude sales than was bpredicted in the budget? Would be pleased to know where you got that info from; kindly share your source... and please whilst showing us how oil price was high, also do well to show us the volume of oil produced in the period.

LIke I said before, there are several reasons Nigeria's production volume is far below target and these include, vandalism, insecurity, Covid19 effects, govt failure etc. But the point which I will keep repeating until you accept it is that the ECA accruals are a function of oil price and oil volume (it's not dependent on only oil price). If oil price is 20% higher than the benchmark but production volume is 30% less, there will be no excess. THis is basic mathematics and you can't twist this fact with your APC vs PDP politics.

SANDAT:
You are also not sincere if that is what you accuse him of doing. If you are really sincere you should have marched the volume of crude oil sold during these years with the prices.

My position is that the guy I quoted did not counter the figures presented by the op. I then suggested that one place to look at is the fact the op presented just info on the last 2 years and nothing on the previous 5 years. I admitted that I do not know the figures for those omitted periods and that looking at those periods might bring to fore some misrepresentation (if there is one) of information by the op.

Your idea of looking at volumes as well for the period under consideration is also a good place to look at.

But what I don't understand is you accusing me of not being sincere.

How, do you mind explaining or is there something I missed?

obailala:
So after all I've hammered on the influence of oil volume, you still came back to tell me about how oil price was $65 in 2018?.... You just proved what I suspected all along; you haven't bothered to read anything I wrote all along, you've just wanted to make an argument, an APC vs PDP argument. I give up!

You know what your problem is? You don't understand the idea behind ECA.

And you're thinking crude oil is the only source of government revenue. So you think of it as something that must meet all demands before some can be saved. Have you asked yourself why not excess customs duty account or excess VAT account? Why excess crude? It is because past govts understand the impact of the dollar accruing from crude on our economic stability.

Go and check again. Customs claimed to exceed its revenue target in 2017-18. Same with FIRS. Same with crude. Yet you believe the government has no reason to save because according to you without even confirming, govt must have produced below projected BPD in 2017-18. If that was the case, can you then explain why Buhari's govt increased budget benchmark to 60 in 2019? At least without even checking the production volumes, I already gave you that fact. If your revenue did not meet target last year, does it make sense to increase it(target) the following year?

Like I said, the purpose of ECA is to save the excess that comes from crude sales. A govt that wants to or, sees the need to, will save while one that doesn't will simply not. That's why even this year, at over 100, a kobo is still not being saved and you present the excuse of low production.
I drop my pen.

Handsum64:
May PDP never have the opportunity to fool us again

APC have their own group of people who listen to their crap.

Agboriotejoye:

You know what your problem is? You don't understand the idea behind ECA.

And you're thinking crude oil is the only source of government revenue. So you think of it as something that must meet all demands before some can be saved. Have you asked yourself why not excess customs duty account or excess VAT account? Why excess crude? It is because past govts understand the impact of the dollar accruing from crude on our economic stability.

Go and check again. Customs claimed to exceed its revenue target in 2017-18. Same with FIRS. Same with crude. Yet you believe the government has no reason to save because according to you without even confirming, govt must have produced below projected BPD in 2017-18. If that was the case, can you then explain why Buhari's govt increased budget benchmark to 60 in 2019? At least without even checking the production volumes, I already gave you that fact. If your revenue did not meet target last year, does it make sense to increase it(target) the following year?

Like I said, the purpose of ECA is to save the excess that comes from crude sales. A govt that wants to or, sees the need to, will save while one that doesn't will simply not. That's why even this year, at over 100, a kobo is still not being saved and you present the excuse of low production.
I drop my pen.

Lol... In all of this, he still cant comprehend the link between the ECA and the volume of crude produced/sold. He's still running in circles talking about crude prices and benchmark and $60 and $100... And then he chips in revenue from Customs; biko what is the business of Customs revenue eith Excess CRUDE Account?

This is what you get when people emotionally just want to force an argument where none is necessary. They run atound in circles trying to make 1+1 = 3.

obailala:
Lol... In all of this, he still cant comprehend the link between the ECA and the volume of crude produced/sold. He's still running in circles talking about crude prices and benchmark and $60 and $100... And then he chips in revenue from Customs; biko what is the business of Customs revenue eith Excess CRUDE Account?

This is what you get when people emotionally just want to force an argument where none is necessary. They run atound in circles trying to make 1+1 = 3.

Do yourself a favour and get properly educated on the matter.
You first claimed crude price has not exceeded benchmark for the past few years. I corrected you that it actually did between 2017-2018. You have not checked what our bpd was in that period but you're clutching on straws in a presumptuous manner that I should find out for you.
My question to you is why did you make such a sweeping statement on crude oil price you were not certain of initially? It is intellectual dishonesty.
I already proved to you that saving in Excess crude account is not just about bpd it is more about the will to save from the govt. Since you're making excuses for ECA, how come SWF too has not grown but instead depleted? What's the excuse for that too?
If you want to engage me further, find out yourself if Nigeria was producing its quota between 2017-2018. That's how to argue not just arguing on conjectures when you don't have the facts.
The facts are that ECA started when crude price was $45.
All your excuses for low production with the exception of covid have always existed yet ECA grew.
Crude price exceeded budget benchmark in 2017-2018
Crude price has been exceeding budget benchmark since 2021-2022.
Find out about the bpd of 2017-18 yourself and you'll see how short on facts you are.
Goodbye

the subsidy Buhari paid was the outsatanding owed by GEJ administration when he removed subsidy the first time. Remember Fuel importance went on strike because FGN was scrutinizing their claims which had been approved by previous administration. I still wonder why we alsways forget what happened in the recent years of PDP ,...... and come to think of its similar NPN days!!

The current subsidy regime is only a reimbursement for NNPC to recover some of the price difference in excess of budget and not to any Importer elsewhere (though you cannot vouch for NNPC books, being the fraud bed of this nation). Others importers only get reprive form the adjusted price based on Tax waivers and reliefs. We have very few importers now unlike before when every region or state or senatorial district is fronted in fuel importation to scam and shsre loot.

the differnce in the subsidy regimes for is that at least there is fuel everywhere unlike thos bogus days where fuel was no where to be found and at cut throat price far above the official price ...... it was double tragey then!!

Agboriotejoye:

Do yourself a favour and get properly educated on the matter.
You first claimed crude price has not exceeded benchmark for the past few years. I corrected you that it actually did between 2017-2018. You have not checked what our bpd was in that period but you're clutching on straws in a presumptuous manner that I should find out for you.
My question to you is why did you make such a sweeping statement on crude oil price you were not certain of initially? It is intellectual dishonesty.
I already proved to you that saving in Excess crude account is not just about bpd it is more about the will to save from the govt. Since you're making excuses for ECA, how come SWF too has not grown but instead depleted? What's the excuse for that too?
If you want to engage me further, find out yourself if Nigeria was producing its quota between 2017-2018. That's how to argue not just arguing on conjectures when you don't have the facts.
The facts are that ECA started when crude price was $45.
All your excuses for low production with the exception of covid have always existed yet ECA grew.
Crude price exceeded budget benchmark in 2017-2018
Crude price has been exceeding budget benchmark since 2021-2022.
Find out about the bpd of 2017-18 yourself and you'll see how short on facts you are.
Goodbye

Wow wow wow! Wonderful! Could it be that I've been conversing all along with an illiterate who cant read or comprehend simple English?

Where exactly did I @Obailala claim that oil price has never exceeded oil benchmark? Please show me where I said that!

All through this thread I have pointed out that oil price exceeding benchmark isn't the only condition that determines accruals into the ECA; I have severally pointed out the same thing to you over and over and over again that whilst oil price may have exceeded benchmark, that Nigeria's oil output volume has been way below the target which consequently means we've been having oil revenue deficits (instead of excess). How on earth can this elementary concept be too difficult for an adult to comprehend?

You're running about in circles trying to 'win' a political APC vs PDP or GEJ vs PMB argument. Oga, I'm not here to argue with you; I am here to educate you on why money cannot go into the ECA - Money goes into the ECA only when there is excess revenue from crude sales. That has not happened in a very long time so therefore, you cannot expect money to go into the ECA, PERIOD!!!

In your desperation for an argument, you mentioned the following today:
- Customs revenue:- Customs revenue excess does not go into ECA and is irrelevant to what we're saying here.
- You mentioned a lack of will to save: - Whether the govt has a will to save or not, money cannot go into ECA if there isnt excess oil revenue.
- You mentioned SWF: SWF is not the same thing as ECA; it's not what this thread is talking about; stop pushing arguments all over the place.

LAstly, after you finally acknowledged that oil production volumes may be affecting ECA accruals, but in your desperation, you felt the need to point out that Buhari was responsible for the low oil producton volume. Oga, I'm not arguing or refuting that with you (if that's what's making you lose sleep). But that wasn't the point of this argument; the point I just want you and Tonyebarcanista to note is that money cannot be expected to accrue into the ECA when production volumes and oil revenues are critically low. End of Discussion!

obailala:
Excess crude sales revenue is what goes into the ECA (that's the simple idea behind the ECA). In the last few years, there hasnt been any excess, rather we've had deficits; so you cant expect revenue to accrue into the ECA when there isnt an excess. This is the summary and TRUTH of the whole story; it doesnt matter whether it is Ajuri or Tonye that said it.

obailala:
Whether the ECA is backed by law or not is inconsequential and irrelevant to the point we're making. The idea behind the ECA is that excess oil revenue will accrue into the account but since there hasn't been any excess revenue, you cant expect funds to accrue into the account from thin air. You keep saying that in 2018-19 there was excess; are you suggesting that in this period Nigeria made more money from crude sales than was bpredicted in the budget? Would be pleased to know where you got that info from kindly share your source... and please whilst showing us how oil price was high, also do well to show us the volume of oil produced in the period.

LIke I said before, there are several reasons Nigeria's production volume is far below target and these include, vandalism, insecurity, Covid19 effects, govt failure etc. But the point which I will keep repeating until you accept it is that the ECA accruals are a function of oil price and oil volume (it's not dependent on only oil price). If oil price is 20% higher than the benchmark but production volume is 30% less, there will be no excess. THis is basic mathematics and you can't twist this fact with your APC vs PDP politics.

obailala:
Wow wow wow! Wonderful! Could it be that I've been conversing all along with an illiterate who cant read or comprehend simple English?

Where exactly did I @Obailala claim that oil price has never exceeded oil benchmark? Please show me where I said that!

All through this thread I have pointed out that oil price exceeding benchmark isn't the only condition that determines accruals into the ECA; I have severally pointed out the same thing to you over and over and over again that whilst oil price may have exceeded benchmark, that Nigeria's oil output volume has been way below the target which consequently means we've been having oil revenue deficits (instead of excess). How on earth can this elementary concept be too difficult for an adult to comprehend?

You're running about in circles trying to 'win' a political APC vs PDP or GEJ vs PMB argument. Oga, I'm not here to argue with you; I am here to educate you on why money cannot go into the ECA - Money goes into the ECA only when there is excess revenue from crude sales. That has not happened in a very long time so therefore, you cannot expect money to go into the ECA, PERIOD!!!

In your desperation for an argument, you mentioned the following today:
- Customs revenue:- Customs revenue excess does not go into ECA and is irrelevant to what we're saying here.
- You mentioned a lack of will to save: - Whether the govt has a will to save or not, money cannot go into ECA if there isnt excess oil revenue.
- You mentioned SWF: SWF is not the same thing as ECA; it's not what this thread is talking about; stop pushing arguments all over the place.

LAstly, after you finally acknowledged that oil production volumes may be affecting ECA accruals, but in your desperation, you felt the need to point out that Buhari was responsible for the low oil producton volume. Oga, I'm not arguing or refuting that with you (if that's what's making you lose sleep). But that wasn't the point of this argument; the point I just want you and Tonyebarcanista to note is that money cannot be expected to accrue into the ECA when production volumes and oil revenues are critically low. End of Discussion!

Look at your above quotes again. Your initial claim was that there has never been excess. After I told you there was in 2017-18 before now, you said I should go and find out the volumes. Note that I have generally refrained from providing links and source because all these info are publicly available.
You came into this thread to claim that Tonye was "misrepresenting facts" when you never had the facts in the first place. You just came with your own assumptions.
Go and check pls. Nigeria was producing its quota as at 2017-2018 which is what made this govt ask OPEC for an increase in quota then.
You came to "correct" Tonye while you did not even have the facts available. As at 2006, Nigeria was producing below the quota yet was still saving because the price of crude was above the budget benchmark. Again, go and check. That's why I told you that it is a question of will to save not your assumption of "oil price must satisfy us before we can save".
I even gave you a pointer to the fact of increase in budget benchmark in 2019 to show you that if your claim that production volumes did not allow government to meet targets was true, how come it even increased benchmark in 2019? Yet you refused to get it.
Know this for a fact. Production volumes as you claim have nothing to do with saving into ECA. Saving into ECA is about saving the excess of crude sold per time. Production volumes can fluctuate at intervals in a financial year. If it is the aggregate that is expected to exceed a certain amount before savings can be made as you conclude, then there will be no savings because the revenue is shared monthly and everything earned is expected to go into the CRF at the end of a month for sharing. I hope you can understand the picture I'm painting for you. Let's say in January you produce 2.8m, you are not sure whether you will produce 2.3m in February or 2.1 or 2.9. So how do you save when you have to share the revenue in January? You see how impractical your stand is now? It is a false assumption. Savings is made based on sale not on aggregate sale for a year as you assume. Hope you get it now.

TonyeBarcanista:



Tonye Barcanista is a political analyst and social commentator. He writes on Nairaland.com and @TonyeBarcanista on Twitter

Tonye got it right here, although we may disagree on other things.

When I read ajiris speech I summed that the Spirit of Lai Mohammed has taken hold of that young man.

He turned everything upside down.

Jonathan with all they castigated him still sold crude oil and made money.

But the heart paining thing about this Buhari administration is that now oil is selling at an astronomical amount, this administration is not making any money.
Thivery of crude oil is at an alarming rate.

Jonathan made oil money but Buhari regime are not even accounting for the whole oil with nothing going into the country's purse while other OPEC countries are cashing out big time.


If Jonathan had not accounted for any oil sales rather allowing for the oil to be stolen. What would have APC said?

Let's just be honest about this issue. And tell ourselves the Truth

Agboriotejoye:



Look at your above quotes again. Your initial claim was that there has never been excess. After I told you there was in 2017-18 before now, you said I should go and find out the volumes. Note that I have generally refrained from providing links and source because all these info are publicly available.
You came into this thread to claim that Tonye was "misrepresenting facts" when you never had the facts in the first place. You just came with your own assumptions.
Go and check pls. Nigeria was producing its quota as at 2017-2018 which is what made this govt ask OPEC for an increase in quota then.
You came to "correct" Tonye while you did not even have the facts available. As at 2006, Nigeria was producing below the quota yet was still saving because the price of crude was above the budget benchmark. Again, go and check. That's why I told you that it is a question of will to save not your assumption of "oil price must satisfy us before we can save".
I even gave you a pointer to the fact of increase in budget benchmark in 2019 to show you that if your claim that production volumes did not allow government to meet targets was true, how come it even increased benchmark in 2019? Yet you refused to get it.
Know this for a fact. Production volumes as you claim have nothing to do with saving into ECA. Saving into ECA is about saving the excess of crude sold per time. Production volumes can fluctuate at intervals in a financial year. If it is the aggregate that is expected to exceed a certain amount before savings can be made as you conclude, then there will be no savings because the revenue is shared monthly and everything earned is expected to go into the CRF at the end of a month for sharing. I hope you can understand the picture I'm painting for you. Let's say in January you produce 2.8m, you are not sure whether you will produce 2.3m in February or 2.1 or 2.9. So how do you save when you have to share the revenue in January? You see how impractical your stand is now? It is a false assumption. Savings is made based on sale not on aggregate sale for a year as you assume. Hope you get it now.

Kaiiii....
So all these while I've been wasting my time arguing with a person who doesnt know the difference between 'sales revenue' and 'sales price'? Wow! What a shame!

Oga Sir, 'Sales Revenue' is not a function of only sales price; it's a function of 'sales price' and 'sales volume.' I know I'd probably need to repeat this like 50 times before he understands it.

Primary School Example:
A fisherman plans to catch and sell 10 fishes at N100 each.
Sale Price = N100
Sale Volume = 10 fishes
Projected or Planned Sale Revenue = 10 x N100 = N1000

If the fisherman eventually catches 10 fishes and sells them at N150 each instead, his sales revenue is 10 x N150 = N1500 (i.e. revenue excess of N500 due to higher sale price).

Likewise if he catches 15 fishes instead and sells them for N100 each, his sales revenue is 15 x N100 = N1500 (i.e. revenue excess of N500 due to higher sale volume).

So now let's make it similar to our ECA discussion. If the fisherman catches only 5 fishes and sells them for N150 each, his sales revenue would be 5 x N150 = N750 (i.e. a revenue shortfall or deficit). In oherwords, despite selling at a higher price of N150, the fisherman did not make excess revenue.

In summary, selling at a higher price does not automatically translate to excess revenue. Same with the ECA scenario; selling oil at prices higher than benchmark does not automatically translate to excess crude revenue. Since 2015 till date, Nigeria has overall not made excess oil revenue to acrue the excess into the ECA; it's either the average oil prices dropped too low (below benchmark) or the average oil ouput was below target (I used the term 'average' to avoid unnecessary arguments).

You urgently need to work on your comprehension, elementary arithmetic and basic understanding of economics. I did not misrepresent facts, rather I pointed out a fact which Tonyebarcanista either deliberately or inadvertently failed to acknowledge in his analysis.

I've gone out of my way to break this down as much as possible such that even a child can understand it. But if you stilll choose to hold onto your logic which I highlighted in RED, then may this be the end of our discussion!

obailala:
Kaiiii....
So all these while I've been wasting my time arguing with a person who doesnt know the difference between 'sales revenue' and 'sales price'? Wow! What a shame!

Oga Sir, 'Sales Revenue' is not a function of only sales price; it's a function of 'sales price' and 'sales volume.' I know I'd probably need to repeat this like 50 times before he understands it.

Primary School Example:
A fisherman plans to catch and sell 10 fishes at N100 each.
Sale Price = N100
Sale Volume = 10 fishes
Projected or Planned Sale Revenue = 10 x N100 = N1000

If the fisherman eventually catches 10 fishes and sells them at N150 each instead, his sales revenue is 10 x N150 = N1500 (i.e. revenue excess of N500 due to higher sale price).

Likewise if he catches 15 fishes instead and sells them for N100 each, his sales revenue is 15 x N100 = N1500 (i.e. revenue excess of N500 due to higher sale volume).

So now let's make it similar to our ECA discussion. If the fisherman catches only 5 fishes and sells them for N150 each, his sales revenue would be 5 x N150 = N750 (i.e. a revenue shortfall or deficit). In oherwords, despite selling at a higher price of N150, the fisherman did not make excess revenue.

In summary, selling at a higher price does not automatically translate to excess revenue. Same with the ECA scenario; selling oil at prices higher than benchmark does not automatically translate to excess crude revenue. Since 2015 till date, Nigeria has overall not made excess oil revenue to acrue the excess into the ECA; it's either the average oil prices dropped too low (below benchmark) or the average oil ouput was below target (I used the term 'average' to avoid unnecessary arguments).

You urgently need to work on your comprehension, elementary arithmetic and basic understanding of economics. I did not misrepresent facts, rather I pointed out a fact which Tonyebarcanista either deliberately or inadvertently failed to acknowledge in his analysis.

I've gone out of my way to break this down as much as possible such that even a child can understand it. But if you stilll choose to hold onto your logic which I highlighted in RED, then may this be the end of our discussion!

People like you are usually very comical with a lot of confidence. See how you've reduced serious economic discussions about fiscal management of an economy to a fisherman selling fish
I don't want to argue any further nor delve into the ridiculousness of your argument.

Let me just share a quote from guardian on what ECA is. Read below and tell me if there's anything like volume of crude oil sale there

Established in 2004, the ECA was meant to stabilise the economy by buffering the impact of price volatility in oil exports.
The difference between the market price of crude oil and the budget benchmark price of crude oil is usually credited in the ECA.

https://guardian.ng/news/how-govts-frittered-22b-from-eca-in-12-years/

Here's another from Thisday

The ECA is funded by the difference between the market price of crude oil and the budgeted price of crude oil as contained in the government’s appropriation bill.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/07/31/eca-and-the-collapse-of-nigerias-financial-buffers/amp/

I hope you can learn appropriately and correct your false analysis based on your baseless assumptions going forward. Learn to get your facts right!
Fisherman. Lol

Agboriotejoye:



People like you are usually very comical with a lot of confidence. See how you've reduced serious economic discussions about fiscal management of an economy to a fisherman selling fish
I don't want to argue any further nor delve into the ridiculousness of your argument.

Let me just share a quote from guardian on what ECA is. Read below and tell me if there's anything like volume of crude oil sale there


https://guardian.ng/news/how-govts-frittered-22b-from-eca-in-12-years/

Here's another from Thisday



https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/07/31/eca-and-the-collapse-of-nigerias-financial-buffers/amp/

I hope you can learn appropriately and correct your false analysis based on your baseless assumptions going forward. Learn to get your facts right!
Fisherman. Lol

The reason I used the elementary school fisherman analogy was because I was reminded that not every person commenting on this faceless forum has the capacity to comprehend basic economics. Sometimes if a message must be passed, one has to break things down to a level which even children can understand.

If after breaking down the explanation to elementary school level, he still cant comprehend the relevance of 'sales volume' in calculating 'revenue excess', then this one is clearly a lost case.

Oga you win! I @Obailala misrepresented facts, and I'm sorry for that.... Good night!

Okay

obailala:
The reason I used the elementary school fisherman analogy was because I was reminded that not every person commenting on this faceless forum has the capacity to comprehend basic economics. Sometimes if a message must be passed, one has to break things down to a level which even children can understand.

If after breaking down the explanation to elementary school level, he still cant comprehend the relevance of 'sales volume' in calculating 'revenue excess', then this one is clearly a lost case.

Oga you win! I @Obailala misrepresented facts, and I'm sorry for that.... Good night!

Good. And let me use an elementary analogy that fits how ECA operates to you.
From your fisherman analysis, you have made the same basic mistake which you keep making by multiplying sales with price to get total revenue at the end of a market day. Well, that's wrong as it gives a false impression of a savings account where you keep excess from your sale at the end of the market.
How ECA works is that for a president who wants to save, it's like a piggy bank. Every extra kobo you make on each sale is pushed into the piggy regardless of whether you sell few or many goods. If the price you had in mind is 25 and you sell for 30, you put the extra 5 into your piggy bank. It doesn't matter whether you're able to sell more or less. That extra should go into the piggy bank.
But like I said before, there's no law mandating any president to maintain the account which is why some of them find it so hard to entrench the financial discipline needed to do that. The biggest culprit is Buhari!! He's just an hypocrite who keeps crying about ECA being emptied whereas he has also refused to grow it!
Jonathan's govt after the brouhaha with the govs instituted the SWF which is backed by law. But even that with its legal framework has suffered under Buhari. That's to tell you Buhari's govt generally lacks good fiscal management and strong financial discipline.
https://punchng.com/swf-will-drop-to-201m-after-150m-withdrawal/?utm_source=auto-read-also&utm_medium=web&amp

Agboriotejoye:

Good. And let me use an elementary analogy that fits how ECA operates to you.
From your fisherman analysis, you have made the same basic mistake which you keep making by multiplying sales with price to get total revenue at the end of a market day. Well, that's wrong as it gives a false impression of a savings account where you keep excess from your sale at the end of the market.
How ECA works is that for a president who wants to save, it's like a piggy bank. Every extra kobo you make on each sale is pushed into the piggy regardless of whether you sell few or many goods. If the price you had in mind is 25 and you sell for 30, you put the extra 5 into your piggy bank. It doesn't matter whether you're able to sell more or less. That extra should go into the piggy bank.
But like I said before, there's no law mandating any president to maintain the account which is why some of them find it so hard to entrench the financial discipline needed to do that. The biggest culprit is Buhari!! He's just an hypocrite who keeps crying about ECA being emptied whereas he has also refused to grow it!
Jonathan's govt after the brouhaha with the govs instituted the SWF which is backed by law. But even that with its legal framework has suffered under Buhari. That's to tell you Buhari's govt generally lacks good fiscal management and strong financial discipline.
https://punchng.com/swf-will-drop-to-201m-after-150m-withdrawal/?utm_source=auto-read-also&utm_medium=web&amp

I can see the last sentence you made is all you've been desperate to say in the last 24 hours. No one is refuting or arguing the fact that buhari failed with you. But like I said, your desperation to make that statement shouldn't push you to the point of refusing to learn/acknowledge basic economic principles.

Anyway, God knows I've tried to explain the basic ECA concept to you. But if you insist that 'excess revenue' can still be made irrespective of whether the country sells a barrel of crude or not, no more words from me. Good day!