garfield1:



Sw has the 2nd highest voting strength after nw.since 2011,the turnout from the north has been dropping and it will still drop next year.in 1979,1983,1993,sw had more turnout than ne/nw...in any case,it is not the turnout but margin of victory that matters.awo margin of victory in 1979 almost gave him victory.abiola margin in 1993 in sw was the foundation to his victory.
With obi taking chunk votes in ss/se,gap between atiku and Tinubu will be narrow and insignificant.atiku only hope in south is ss and it is evaporating daily..
Apc lost the defection battle in 2019.pdp has lost the defection battle in the south.moreover,what matters is quality of defections not quantity.majority of the voters are those that are not party affiliated so it will never matter.machinery is not just Buhari or govs,it goes beyond that. buhari or govs do not carry out rigging personally,their lieutenants carry it out.govs have played key roles in elections and will still play next year even if it will be lesser...even if you loom at both tinubu and atiku person structure,tinubu has more resources and foot soldiers to crush atiku who is dependent on ethnic sentiments.
If the three candidates win 2 regions each,it will now be down to who has the highest votes and who has the constitution spread.the latter will be a big problem for atiku.no one can win nc convincingly as it stands but atiku has the least chance of winning there.even atiku and Tinubu cannot win the core north convincingly.while atiku needs a convincing win,a narrow loss is enough for tinubu...

What gives you the confidence that Tinubu will win the south west convincingly?
Afenifere is for Obi
When Tinubu led the onslaught against GEJ in 2015 the marginal difference between PDP and APC was 611777.
Considering that PDP has strong politicians in this zones and the Obi effect,do you still see a massive victory for Tinubu in SW?

Aiel123:

Atiku winning north means a straight victory.
Whatever Tinubu polls in SW will be neutralized by the combo of SE/SS .
On Oyo,I meant the traditional 25%, I'll be crazy to think Atiku will win Oyo.
Atiku winning Rivers is a tall order if his beef with Wike is not resolved.
You see northern APC governors are observing Tinubu body language for now to know whether he's worth their support. The governor's recently passed a vote of confidence on Adamu( You know Tinubu feud with Adamu on the composition of the PCC )
Masari, Abdulrazaq has been the vocal ones in Tinubu camp for now.
The northerners I meant where those in Buhari inner caucuses ( Aso cabals)

If atiku wins the north by 500k or 1 mil and tinubu wins sw by 2 mil or more,that is a tinubu victory.I don't see atiku gapping tinubu by more than 500k in ss/se.while atiku is set to beat tinubu in Enugu and anambra,Tinubu is set to do well in ebonyi,IMO.infact,none of tinubu or atiku will see up to 50k in anambra.in ss,the only place atiku will surely beat tinubu is delta and aks.the rest is dicey.Most of those that will have voted atiku are with obi...
In the north bagudu,matawalle,sani bello,lalong,buni,zulum are on the ballot so they can't do much against him

garfield1:


If atiku wins the north by 500k or 1 mil and tinubu wins sw by 2 mil or more,that is a tinubu victory.I don't see atiku gapping tinubu by more than 500k in ss/se.while atiku is set to beat tinubu in Enugu and anambra,Tinubu is set to do well in ebonyi,IMO.infact,none of tinubu or atiku will see up to 50k in anambra.in ss,the only place atiku will surely beat tinubu is delta and aks.the rest is dicey.Most of those that will have voted atiku are with obi...
In the north bagudu,matawalle,sani bello,lalong,buni,zulum are on the ballot so they can't do much against him

On your last point, Haven't you seen a situation whereby a senatorial candidate wins whereas his presidential candidate loses the Senate zone?
Check Yakubu Dogara constituency ( I know it house of representatives)I only brought it to butress my point.

Aiel123:

On your last point, Haven't you seen a situation whereby a senatorial candidate wins whereas his presidential candidate loses the Senate zone?
Check Yakubu Dogara constituency ( I know it house of representatives)I only brought it to butress my point.

It happens but a gov being on the ballot makes him more committed and his popularity will rub off on the presidential candidate

prodigy22:

Later Una go talk say Obi dey lie. Who tell you say Obi no for get VP slot for PDP? Use your sense, is okowa that was picked a quarter of the man Obi is? At times tribalism to dey blind us to recognize simple facts like the sacrifice Obi made to fight for the turn of another section of the country. You don't have to support him but at least respect his courageous acts.

Ask yourself the courage act is for the good of who? You or his life ? Don’t be stupid

garfield1:


It happens but a gov being on the ballot makes him more committed and his popularity will rub off on the presidential candidate

So we can conclude that since Ikpeazu,Ortom,Ugwuanyi are senatorial candidates their effects will rob on Atiku's performance in their respective senate zone?

Aiel123:

So we can conclude that since Ikpeazu,Ortom,Ugwuanyi are senatorial candidates their effects will rob on Atiku's performance in their respective senate zone?

They are highly unpopular in their States plus they are pro wike and obi tsunami is sweeping their states

garfield1:


They are highly unpopular in their States plus they are pro wike and obi tsunami is sweeping their states

Unpopular?
Tell me again one popular than a governor In his state among his political contemporaries...just one name.
I simply used your analogy and you've changed tone.

garfield1:



Sw has the 2nd highest voting strength after nw.since 2011,the turnout from the north has been dropping and it will still drop next year.in 1979,1983,1993,sw had more turnout than ne/nw...in any case,it is not the turnout but margin of victory that matters.awo margin of victory in 1979 almost gave him victory.abiola margin in 1993 in sw was the foundation to his victory.
With obi taking chunk votes in ss/se,gap between atiku and Tinubu will be narrow and insignificant.atiku only hope in south is ss and it is evaporating daily..
Apc lost the defection battle in 2019.pdp has lost the defection battle in the south.moreover,what matters is quality of defections not quantity.majority of the voters are those that are not party affiliated so it will never matter.machinery is not just Buhari or govs,it goes beyond that. buhari or govs do not carry out rigging personally,their lieutenants carry it out.govs have played key roles in elections and will still play next year even if it will be lesser...even if you loom at both tinubu and atiku person structure,tinubu has more resources and foot soldiers to crush atiku who is dependent on ethnic sentiments.
If the three candidates win 2 regions each,it will now be down to who has the highest votes and who has the constitution spread.the latter will be a big problem for atiku.no one can win nc convincingly as it stands but atiku has the least chance of winning there.even atiku and Tinubu cannot win the core north convincingly.while atiku needs a convincing win,a narrow loss is enough for tinubu...

SW turnout is usually low in elections. After SE, they usually have the lowest turnout.
The North are not going to split their votes the way you think. Atiku will win NE overwhelmingly. That's his base. He will also win the NW too. As for NC, Tinubu has the least chance there. His surest state is Kwara and he'll have to slug that state with Saraki who has an axe to grind with him for his 2019 loss. Atiku did well in Kogi in 2019 and I'm sure he'll improve there because of the northcentric ebiras. In Niger, Atiku will win easily. It's a traditional PDP state which tilted in favour of the North and will stay so. Atiku can bank on winning at least two states in SS while Tinubu can't even hope on any state there. Same with SE. Atiku can boast of two states at least there while nothing for Tinubu. In the SW, while Atiku can't stand any chance of winning any state, he'll get 25% in some.
If the 3 candidates win 2 regions each, it will look like this I think: Atiku NW/NE, Tinubu SW/NC, Obi SS/SE. You can see that the numbers of the regions favour Atiku who has the 1st and 4th, while Tinubu has the 2nd 5th while Obi has 3rd and 6th. But besides that, APC is very weak in two regions while the weakest region for PDP which is NE is the region their candidate comes from and turns the tide in their favour.
No lieutenant northerner is going to be rigging on behalf of a southerner. Most will be largely neutral.
PDP has largest spread and is looking good to take this

Aiel123:

Unpopular?
Tell me again one popular than a governor In his state among his political contemporaries...just one name.
I simply used your analogy and you've changed tone.

That's how he does when you show him how his argument favours Atiku as well

Agboriotejoye:

That's how he does when you show him how his argument favours Atiku as well

You self see am too

Aiel123:

Unpopular?
Tell me again one popular than a governor In his state among his political contemporaries...just one name.
I simply used your analogy and you've changed tone.

How many abians do you see that like ikpeazu? Same for ortom.ugwuanyi is not that unpopular.

Agboriotejoye:

SW turnout is usually low in elections. After SE, they usually have the lowest turnout.
The North are not going to split their votes the way you think. Atiku will win NE overwhelmingly. That's his base. He will also win the NW too. As for NC, Tinubu has the least chance there. His surest state is Kwara and he'll have to slug that state with Saraki who has an axe to grind with him for his 2019 loss. Atiku did well in Kogi in 2019 and I'm sure he'll improve there because of the northcentric ebiras. In Niger, Atiku will win easily. It's a traditional PDP state which tilted in favour of the North and will stay so. Atiku can bank on winning at least two states in SS while Tinubu can't even hope on any state there. Same with SE. Atiku can boast of two states at least there while nothing for Tinubu. In the SW, while Atiku can't stand any chance of winning any state, he'll get 25% in some.
If the 3 candidates win 2 regions each, it will look like this I think: Atiku NW/NE, Tinubu SW/NC, Obi SS/SE. You can see that the numbers of the regions favour Atiku who has the 1st and 4th, while Tinubu has the 2nd 5th while Obi has 3rd and 6th. But besides that, APC is very weak in two regions while the weakest region for PDP which is NE is the region their candidate comes from and turns the tide in their favour.
No lieutenant northerner is going to be rigging on behalf of a southerner. Most will be largely neutral.
PDP has largest spread and is looking good to take this

Sw turnout is not low.they usually have the second or third highest turnout.in 2019,they had the second highest and with a son of the ballot,it will be higher.
Atiku cannot win ne massively esp with borno yobe giving tinubu bloc and gombe.a win in taraba,bauchi and Adamawa cannot give atiku that massive edge esp with Christians there aiming for obi....same thing in ne.saraki can't stop tinubu in kwara.niger is dicey but kure and muazu are not grass rooters.kantigi can't do much.sani bello is on the ticket,sen sani musa also and he is a major supplier to inec so atiku can't have niger.in kogi,the ebiras are tilting towards tinubu plus the okuns.a narrow victory here will suffice.nasarawa is dicey with makura on the ticket and adamu from here,it gets hard for atiku.plateau and benue are going obi buy with their hatred for fulanis and pdp structure against atiku,tinubu will edge him.
Tinubu doesbt need to win any se state.umahi will deliver in ebonyi suppressing atiku,ugwuanyi and ikpeazu are not with atiku.hope is set to push for tinubu in IMO.in anambra,nothing for apc and pdp.in ss,tinubu will do better in rivers,crs,edo,bayelsa.the margins will be close between tinubu and atiku in the two regions.a massive win for tinubu in sw will be the difference

adekolaelect:
who asked you all this stories when you know that politic is not the work for heaven but for this Earth and the reword for hard working on Earth is to get the benefit to make life sweet .Do you now want them to remain where they don't get reword for you to know they are brain alive? Do you want everybody to be like IPOB /Obis supporters who gains nothing in the work of live than just to satisfying their hatred and bitterness emotional feelings? You can't expect everybody to become those that are contributing for Terror who offered them nothing but destruction and unrest for their fathers land. Oga you can only have a say which can never becomes a recommendation for another man's lives . You can only proof brain alive only on your own Wishes which may be Brain dead for another man's reasoning .

Wetin dis emilokan de talk?

Toluwanise247:

Ask yourself the courage act is for the good of who? You or his life ? Don’t be stupid

can you read a man's mind to decipher his intention? You can only judge by evidence. Peter is not a saint but he is has good track record that's why atiku respect him. Tinubu is too old and weak. go on youtube and watch his interview years ago when stating why he didn't support ambode. his hand was already shaking badly then. Atiku shouldn't rule because Nigeria does not belong to the Fulani. Plus atiku is a kleptomaniac. If osinbajo was fielded it would have been a different case...

garfield1:


Sw turnout is not low.they usually have the second or third highest turnout.in 2019,they had the second highest and with a son of the ballot,it will be higher.
Atiku cannot win ne massively esp with borno yobe giving tinubu bloc and gombe.a win in taraba,bauchi and Adamawa cannot give atiku that massive edge esp with Christians there aiming for obi....same thing in ne.saraki can't stop tinubu in kwara.niger is dicey but kure and muazu are not grass rooters.kantigi can't do much.sani bello is on the ticket,sen sani musa also and he is a major supplier to inec so atiku can't have niger.in kogi,the ebiras are tilting towards tinubu plus the okuns.a narrow victory here will suffice.nasarawa is dicey with makura on the ticket and adamu from here,it gets hard for atiku.plateau and benue are going obi buy with their hatred for fulanis and pdp structure against atiku,tinubu will edge him.
Tinubu doesbt need to win any se state.umahi will deliver in ebonyi suppressing atiku,ugwuanyi and ikpeazu are not with atiku.hope is set to push for tinubu in IMO.in anambra,nothing for apc and pdp.in ss,tinubu will do better in rivers,crs,edo,bayelsa.the margins will be close between tinubu and atiku in the two regions.a massive win for tinubu in sw will be the difference

Who had the highest in 2019? You're just making excuses. NW usually has the highest votes.
Atiku can and will win NE with massive votes. He's their son and they've not produced the national leader since tafawa balewa.
Why can't Saraki stop Tinubu in Kwara? You always boast about people like Oshiomole who can get dirty. Can Oshiomole in Edo compare with Saraki in Kwara? Lol. You think Muazu is not a grassroots guy but you're banking on Sani Bello who is not even supporting the guber candidate yet the guy emerged against his preferred choice? Ebiras are always pro-North. The okuns who should vote for APC are majority Christians. Smart Adeyemi who is representing the area for APC in NASs recently introduced a bill prohibiting same faith ticket. Does that not tell you how his people view Muslim Muslim ticket?
Nasarawa has a strong Christian population and is not going to vote Muslim Muslim ticket.
Forget adamu. He's a spent force. The governor is a known failure especially amongst the civil service workforce and he's being courting them lately though I suspect it's too late.
Tinubu needs to win everywhere but we know he can't win the two SS SE regions which is why you're claiming he doesn't need to win. He's the only candidate who can't boast of two strongholds just one.
Nobody is going to deliver good him in any SE/SS states. All those names you're calling can't do jack. He'll not even get 25% in any of those states in those two regions by my estimation because of their dislike for him for the role he played in Jonah's outing and of course his same faith ticket in a 90% Christian populated area.

Agboriotejoye:

Who had the highest in 2019? You're just making excuses. NW usually has the highest votes.
Atiku can and will win NE with massive votes. He's their son and they've not produced the national leader since tafawa balewa.
Why can't Saraki stop Tinubu in Kwara? You always boast about people like Oshiomole who can get dirty. Can Oshiomole in Edo compare with Saraki in Kwara? Lol. You think Muazu is not a grassroots guy but you're banking on Sani Bello who is not even supporting the guber candidate yet the guy emerged against his preferred choice? Ebiras are always pro-North. The okuns who should vote for APC are majority Christians. Smart Adeyemi who is representing the area for APC in NASs recently introduced a bill prohibiting same faith ticket. Does that not tell you how his people view Muslim Muslim ticket?
Nasarawa has a strong Christian population and is not going to vote Muslim Muslim ticket.
Forget adamu. He's a spent force. The governor is a known failure especially amongst the civil service workforce and he's being courting them lately though I suspect it's too late.
Tinubu needs to win everywhere but we know he can't win the two SS SE regions which is why you're claiming he doesn't need to win. He's the only candidate who can't boast of two strongholds just one.
Nobody is going to deliver good him in any SE/SS states. All those names you're calling can't do jack. He'll not even get 25% in any of those states in those two regions by my estimation because of their dislike for him for the role he played in Jonah's outing and of course his same faith ticket in a 90% Christian populated area.

Saraki had been retired for good.he lost everywhere in kwara,oshiomhole on the other hand won his zone.saraki is not forceful or ruthless or brutal like oshiomhole.when last did you see him with atiku? He is not even on the ballot.I repeat,muazu is not a grassrooter.if not for obj,he won't be in politics.he might not support bago but he is fully batified.the okuns are fiercely Muslims and since bello became governor,have always voted apc.the okun may be Christians but they won't abandon their son for a fulani.igala is dicey...the Christians here will side with obi...
Adamu is no spent force.he is the biggest force in lafia zone alongside wadada.ombugadu is pro wike and he is a serial loser.surely he cannot go against gov sule and makura.the Christians here are tilting towards obi.with massive popularity of father alia and the stance of ortom and with akume pushing and the popularity of Daniel onjeh gunning for senate,tinubu will come behind obi in benue.....
Adeyemi was virtually rigged in by bello and he has been discarded.what do you expect from a sore loser? So his views now represent all okun mindset?
There is no unity or oneness in ne.it is not one ethnicity like the sw or se.the fulanis only dominate gombe.that our son thing will not work..why didnt it work in 2007 and 2019? Atiku losing ne and winning se/ss,what does that tell you? The kanuris deliver bloc and they are with tinubu.gombe is tilting towards him.bauchi has a lot of Islamic fanatics who love kwankwaso.Christians dominate taraba and are significant in adamawa and will go for obi.where will atiku win convincingly here?

The ss promised to punish Buhari in 2019.they hate him up till now.i personally was ridiculed during that period.what happened? Bayelsa of all places gave buhari 40%.how manage? You yourself claimed once that defections to apc in 2019 helped buhari to get votes.those people are still in apc for your info.people hardly vote here,votes are allocated by strongmen that is why apc got key figures to defect.if they can't do anything,why was buhari highest votes in akwa ibom from akpabio territory,delta from delta central of omo agege,ogboru and emerhor,edo north of oshio,bayelsa east of sylva,crs central of ndoma egba,hon Alex,usani,clement ebri,rivers east of amaechi and se of abbé? In se, ouk delivered abia north,rochas,hope and nwosu brought votes from orlu,ucha,elechi and ogah brought votes from ebonyi central.the ss and se for the first time will do real voting and it will go to obi.the remaining votes will be gotten by who has more muscles.they have equal dislike for atiku and Tinubu.they will be little or no difference.
Any area that won't vote for a mm ticket will equally not vote for a fulani Muslim.it is a stalemate.it will now go down to a fight which will never favour atiku

garfield1:


Saraki had been retired for good.he lost everywhere in kwara,oshiomhole on the other hand won his zone.saraki is not forceful or ruthless or brutal like oshiomhole.when last did you see him with atiku? He is not even on the ballot.I repeat,muazu is not a grassrooter.if not for obj,he won't be in politics.he might not support bago but he is fully batified.the okuns are fiercely Muslims and since bello became governor,have always voted apc.the okun may be Christians but they won't abandon their son for a fulani.igala is dicey...the Christians here will side with obi...
Adamu is no spent force.he is the biggest force in lafia zone alongside wadada.ombugadu is pro wike and he is a serial loser.surely he cannot go against gov sule and makura.the Christians here are tilting towards obi.with massive popularity of father alia and the stance of ortom and with akume pushing and the popularity of Daniel onjeh gunning for senate,tinubu will come behind obi in benue.....
Adeyemi was virtually rigged in by bello and he has been discarded.what do you expect from a sore loser? So his views now represent all okun mindset?
There is no unity or oneness in ne.it is not one ethnicity like the sw or se.the fulanis only dominate gombe.that our son thing will not work..why didnt it work in 2007 and 2019? Atiku losing ne and winning se/ss,what does that tell you? The kanuris deliver bloc and they are with tinubu.gombe is tilting towards him.bauchi has a lot of Islamic fanatics who love kwankwaso.Christians dominate taraba and are significant in adamawa and will go for obi.where will atiku win convincingly here?

The ss promised to punish Buhari in 2019.they hate him up till now.i personally was ridiculed during that period.what happened? Bayelsa of all places gave buhari 40%.how manage? You yourself claimed once that defections to apc in 2019 helped buhari to get votes.those people are still in apc for your info.people hardly vote here,votes are allocated by strongmen that is why apc got key figures to defect.if they can't do anything,why was buhari highest votes in akwa ibom from akpabio territory,delta from delta central of omo agege,ogboru and emerhor,edo north of oshio,bayelsa east of sylva,crs central of ndoma egba,hon Alex,usani,clement ebri,rivers east of amaechi and se of abbé? In se, ouk delivered abia north,rochas,hope and nwosu brought votes from orlu,ucha,elechi and ogah brought votes from ebonyi central.the ss and se for the first time will do real voting and it will go to obi.the remaining votes will be gotten by who has more muscles.they have equal dislike for atiku and Tinubu.they will be little or no difference.
Any area that won't vote for a mm ticket will equally not vote for a fulani Muslim.it is a stalemate.it will now go down to a fight which will never favour atiku

Retired by who? He ran for president like Akpabio you mentioned. Yet Akpabio is not retired for good to you while Saraki is. Oshiomole who dropped from National chair to IDP is not retired for good to you.
The fact is not on the ballot but on the campaign team of Atiku will give him the leeway to work and work solely for Atiku unlike an Oshiomole who still needs to keep an eye on his own personal ambition. Saraki can work with more focus than Oshiomole can. Besides, in terms of statewide influence, Oshiomole can't hold a candle to Saraki. His fist attempt to play godfather ended woefully.
Saraki was with Atiku in bauchi two days back. When last did you see Oshiomole with Tinubu?

Oga stop yarning dust. Sani Bello is hated in two out of three zones in Niger. He couldn't even install his preferred candidate for gov. He was a mere commissioner when Muazu was governor. Now you're saying Muazu whom they call Talba is not a grassroots guy. Someone who continued to stay in Minna even after 2015 while Sani Bello was shuttling between Kd and London. To even compare Sani Bello with Muazu shows you know nothing of Niger politics. Sani Bello is Abdulsalami's son in law. That's the only thing that got him APC ticket in 2015. He's got no clout politically.
Ebiras are the most pro North part of Kogi. Go and ask anyone who knows Kogi well. They dress, act and think like core notherners. It is Igala and Okun that tend to behave more balanced. Most Okuns are Christians. They won't vote for a Muslim Muslim ticket. That's besides the fact that James Faleke is seen as a Lagosian to most of them. They don't really identify him politically. Which one is their son? Tinubu? Mtcheew.
Nasarawa Muslims are also always playing pro North. That's why the votes are divided because the Christians are usually tilting towards the South instead. The South may vote Obi but will surely not vote Muslim Muslim. As for the pro North part, their votes will go to Atiku. That's why the gov has been courting so many groups in the state cause he knows the ball is not in their favour.
Tinubu will come third in Benue. Atiku will win that state easily because they won't also vote a Muslim Muslim ticket. Obi will do well but he doesn't have the structure on ground. All those names you're calling can't even get the mind to go and tell Tiv or Idoma people to vote Muslim Muslim ticket. They'll just be stoned. Benue are more like igbo in thinking. They despise anything that will push them towards Islam.
Who discarded Adeyemi? Is he not still there senator? He is aware of his people's aversion to Muslim Muslim ticket you're saying he was discarded. By who? To where?
NE see themselves as core notherners too. It's just like the SS/SE fraternity. Same goes for NE/NW. They act as a single political block. In 2019, Atiku lost Gombe and Bauchi to another notherner. If you think same will happen again, you're dreaming. Besides, even Borno and Yobe will deliver better numbers for him this time. He'll win NE with bloc figures. Buhari stayed close to him in Adamawa and Taraba. Such will not happen this time around.
Kanuri are also pro North. So forget all this talk of tilting towards Tinubu. They will prefer a fellow notherner anyday, anytime.

SS have the VP under Atiku. That will count. Coupled with the Muslim Muslim ticket. But of course, Obi will have some influence here.
Besides that, Buhari rigged most of those areas by voter suppression in 2019. With the present situation, rigging will be highly minimised. So all those figures Buhari got will vanish plus the fact that Muslim Muslim ticket will be a hard sell in a predominantly Christian region. All the SS govs except Wike are with Atiku. So he has good structure he can bank on in SS.

Agboriotejoye:

Retired by who? He ran for president like Akpabio you mentioned. Yet Akpabio is not retired for good to you while Saraki is. Oshiomole who dropped from National chair to IDP is not retired for good to you.
The fact is not on the ballot but on the campaign team of Atiku will give him the leeway to work and work solely for Atiku unlike an Oshiomole who still needs to keep an eye on his own personal ambition. Saraki can work with more focus than Oshiomole can. Besides, in terms of statewide influence, Oshiomole can't hold a candle to Saraki. His fist attempt to play godfather ended woefully.
Saraki was with Atiku in bauchi two days back. When last did you see Oshiomole with Tinubu?

Oga stop yarning dust. Sani Bello is hated in two out of three zones in Niger. He couldn't even install his preferred candidate for gov. He was a mere commissioner when Muazu was governor. Now you're saying Muazu whom they call Talba is not a grassroots guy. Someone who continued to stay in Minna even after 2015 while Sani Bello was shuttling between Kd and London. To even compare Sani Bello with Muazu shows you know nothing of Niger politics. Sani Bello is Abdulsalami's son in law. That's the only thing that got him APC ticket in 2015. He's got no clout politically.
Ebiras are the most pro North part of Kogi. Go and ask anyone who knows Kogi well. They dress, act and think like core notherners. It is Igala and Okun that tend to behave more balanced. Most Okuns are Christians. They won't vote for a Muslim Muslim ticket. That's besides the fact that James Faleke is seen as a Lagosian to most of them. They don't really identify him politically. Which one is their son? Tinubu? Mtcheew.
Nasarawa Muslims are also always playing pro North. That's why the votes are divided because the Christians are usually tilting towards the South instead. The South may vote Obi but will surely not vote Muslim Muslim. As for the pro North part, their votes will go to Atiku. That's why the gov has been courting so many groups in the state cause he knows the ball is not in their favour.
Tinubu will come third in Benue. Atiku will win that state easily because they won't also vote a Muslim Muslim ticket. Obi will do well but he doesn't have the structure on ground. All those names you're calling can't even get the mind to go and tell Tiv or Idoma people to vote Muslim Muslim ticket. They'll just be stoned. Benue are more like igbo in thinking. They despise anything that will push them towards Islam.
Who discarded Adeyemi? Is he not still there senator? He is aware of his people's aversion to Muslim Muslim ticket you're saying he was discarded. By who? To where?
NE see themselves as core notherners too. It's just like the SS/SE fraternity. Same goes for NE/NW. They act as a single political block. In 2019, Atiku lost Gombe and Bauchi to another notherner. If you think same will happen again, you're dreaming. Besides, even Borno and Yobe will deliver better numbers for him this time. He'll win NE with bloc figures. Buhari stayed close to him in Adamawa and Taraba. Such will not happen this time around.
Kanuri are also pro North. So forget all this talk of tilting towards Tinubu. They will prefer a fellow notherner anyday, anytime.

SS have the VP under Atiku. That will count. Coupled with the Muslim Muslim ticket. But of course, Obi will have some influence here.
Besides that, Buhari rigged most of those areas by voter suppression in 2019. With the present situation, rigging will be highly minimised. So all those figures Buhari got will vanish plus the fact that Muslim Muslim ticket will be a hard sell in a predominantly Christian region. All the SS govs except Wike are with Atiku. So he has good structure he can bank on in SS.

Always stay one place and stop hypocrisy and double speak like tambuwal.you cannot claim apc structure up north won't work for tinubu up north and claim on the other hand that pdp structure will deliver benue.what lunacy.benue an overwhelming xtian state where the overwhelming voters are with obi? The pdp structure is controlled by ortom and he clearly is not with atiku.moreover,his failure has dwindled his popularity.besides,benue plateau are pro south..the apc structure in benue is united under akume plus the popularity of the apc candidates will deliver votes.no factor in benue is working in atiku favour and that of plateau is with lalong.plateau north dominated by beroms are fiercely anti fulanis,tgey dont hide is.their leader jang hates fulanis.opinion polls in you tube show them going for obi.the influence of dariye in the cejtral will tilt towards apc or labour.lalong doninates plateau south plus he is on the ballot.they will deliver second place for tinubu.besides lolo,apc is more rooted and popular in niger with an enormous structure...
The kanuris are pro north but always vote for their son and where their elites are.their leaders sen bukar Ibrahim,kingibe and Ali sheriff are solidly with tinubu.I have already told you that a larger number of voters here are in idps controlled by govt.there is a reason why tinubu chose shettima and atiku lost vote is here.pdp structure here is almost dead...
The top ebira leaders are in apc.the structure here is apc.who will counter the violent and brutality of bello? Is it akpoti? The okun like the west will go with tinubu.adeyemi is not going for another tenure..
Saraki cannot deliver anywgerevin kwara for atiku.what did he do in 2019 when he was senate president,campaign DG and they were in power in kwara? A politician that is on the ballot will work more than the one that isn't.his popularity will always rub off on his party,this is commonsensical.
Apart from sokoto and jigawa,the structure of pdp in nw is weak.it cannot contend with apc.their son kwankwaso is on the ballot,they will prefer him.he will divide votes just as obi will do in ss.

There was no voter suppression in ss se in 2019 except in rivers.I challenge you to give any examples.the most renowned ones were in oshodi and parts of the north.what has changed from 2019 to 2023 that will make rigging stop? Are the security agents repentant,are the inec agents no more corrupt? Bvas? Rigging may reduce but it will still be there.you cannot expect any miracle.they will be a lot of sabotage from southern pdp.they won't be committed like 2019.diri is faced with massive defection.okowa is being overrun by obidient movement, pdp in akwa ibom is facing crisis,cross river pdp is pro wike.tinubu will humiliate atiku

garfield1:



Always stay one place and stop hypocrisy and double speak like tambuwal.you cannot claim apc structure up north won't work for tinubu up north and claim on the other hand that pdp structure will deliver benue.what lunacy.benue an overwhelming xtian state where the overwhelming voters are with obi? The pdp structure is controlled by ortom and he clearly is not with atiku.moreover,his failure has dwindled his popularity.besides,benue plateau are pro south..the apc structure in benue is united under akume plus the popularity of the apc candidates will deliver votes.no factor in benue is working in atiku favour and that of plateau is with lalong.plateau north dominated by beroms are fiercely anti fulanis,tgey dont hide is.their leader jang hates fulanis.opinion polls in you tube show them going for obi.the influence of dariye in the cejtral will tilt towards apc or labour.lalong doninates plateau south plus he is on the ballot.they will deliver second place for tinubu.besides lolo,apc is more rooted and popular in niger with an enormous structure...
The kanuris are pro north but always vote for their son and where their elites are.their leaders sen bukar Ibrahim,kingibe and Ali sheriff are solidly with tinubu.I have already told you that a larger number of voters here are in idps controlled by govt.there is a reason why tinubu chose shettima and atiku lost vote is here.pdp structure here is almost dead...
The top ebira leaders are in apc.the structure here is apc.who will counter the violent and brutality of bello? Is it akpoti? The okun like the west will go with tinubu.adeyemi is not going for another tenure..
Saraki cannot deliver anywgerevin kwara for atiku.what did he do in 2019 when he was senate president,campaign DG and they were in power in kwara? A politician that is on the ballot will work more than the one that isn't.his popularity will always rub off on his party,this is commonsensical.
Apart from sokoto and jigawa,the structure of pdp in nw is weak.it cannot contend with apc.their son kwankwaso is on the ballot,they will prefer him.he will divide votes just as obi will do in ss.

There was no voter suppression in ss se in 2019 except in rivers.I challenge you to give any examples.the most renowned ones were in oshodi and parts of the north.what has changed from 2019 to 2023 that will make rigging stop? Are the security agents repentant,are the inec agents no more corrupt? Bvas? Rigging may reduce but it will still be there.you cannot expect any miracle.they will be a lot of sabotage from southern pdp.they won't be committed like 2019.diri is faced with massive defection.okowa is being overrun by obidient movement, pdp in akwa ibom is facing crisis,cross river pdp is pro wike.tinubu will humiliate atiku

This boy
You have come again with your childish tantrums and inability to comprehend simple grammar. Where did I say that PDP structure will deliver Benue. I said Obi does not have the structure to win though he has a good chance in Benue. You went ballistic like a child robbed of his sweets. Structure doesn't win elections my boy. What it does is to ensure that you're not robbed of victory especially in your areas of strength, and also helps to limit your opponents' penetration as well as improve your showing in areas you're not so popular. But if you're not popular or acceptable to the general populace, even if you have structure you will ultimately lose. The only way you can win is if your opponent is weak structure-wise, then your structure can rig the election in your favour like Osun, Kano guber recently, etc. Learn this boy. I have taken my time to teach you so you don't throw such tantrums again. PDP had the structure in 2015 yet still lost. Obi would have been the frontrunner for this election easily if not for the lack of structure of the Labour Party. That's why I'm looking at his trajectory with one eye to see what he can build by January next year.

You are the one who have been naming people as structure you're relying on. For example, you actually believe Benue people will not vote for PDP because of Ortom but vote for Tinubu's Muslim Muslim because the APC guber candidate is a Rev. Fr. Same man who cried out recently that they are losing followers to Obi. You're also claiming Akume will talk to Tiv people to vote a Muslim Muslim. You actually think people are zombies who are directed where to vote by their political overlords. We shall see though. The issues that are germane to people of Benue and Plateau are security of their lives and the security of their lands. They will remember that it is APC government who brought Fulani bandits to kill them. They will remember that under a Fulani PDP president Yaradua, they had no such problem. Instead, they were protected with a military outfit. They will also be concerned about the discrimination and marginalization they are suffering by the Muslim Muslim ticket which seeks to relegate them as second class citizens in the Northern political equation. So, Benue people are not so blind to not see that it is APC political machinery that helped Fulani to kill them in their lands and sent Femi Adesina a Deacon of Foursquare to tell them to surrender their lands. They will also realize that it is same APC machinery that is looking to relegate them in the North with Muslim Muslim ticket. They will not forget that Atiku gave Ayu their son party chairmanship while Buhari took a Muslim again as party chair.

APC is not rooted in Niger. All the heavyweight polticians in Niger are still in PDP till now. Talk of Kure, Jerry Gana, even the two generals in Minna are PDP leaning. APC only benefitted from the Chanji of 2015 and bombs that went off in Suleja and Kontangora which made Niger people to tilt towards APC. But under Buhari, they have suffered heavily. bandits have taken over almost the whole state while they are besoughted with bad roads. They will prefer to go back to PDP than stay with APC the blood-sucking party.

The Kanuris occupy only two states in NE and those are not the largest states by voting strength. At that, their being pro North will mean some of them will tilt towards Atiku since he is offering NE presidency while APC is offering them VP.

Yahaya Bello alone cannot be said to be Ebira. Audu was an Atiku guy while he was alive and his political machinery will always tilt towards Atiku. Besides, I don't know why you're banking on violence to win elections. What manner of creature are you? Anyways 2019 is not 2023. If Bello tries to do any violence, he will most certainly meet his waterloo. Okun people will not be deceived by the claims of Tinubu being Yoruba. You already heard Cardinal Onaiyekan a prominent Okun man saying he will not vote for Muslim Muslim. Okun people for your info are also northern Christians who will be marginalized by the muslim muslim experiment. It is in their best interest that it fails which is why you see Smart Adeyemi also making subtle moves to reject the ticket.

A politician not on the ballot will try his best to deliver his candidate so as to have a chance of being a part of the government if the candidate wins overall. It is your assumption that a politician on the ballot will work harder than one who is not. One who is on the ballot will be more emotionally and financially invested in the race, but he can also go rogue if he sees that his party's candidate will be a hard sell. Saraki is already getting the people on his side. Kwarans have deemed Abdulrazaq a failure which is why he has been trying to introduce religious issues into the politics of Kwara. If not for federal might and the financial warchest Tinubu offered in 2019, Abdulrazaq and Lai are ants where Saraki is an elephant. Watch out for 2023. Saraki now has the sympathy of Kwarans. The only thing working in Tinubu's favour in Kwara is the fact that they are majority Yoruba Muslims in Kwara and will easily identify with his ticket as a victory for their religion. But other than that, Kwarans are really pissed with APC.

There was voter suppression and votes inflation all throughout the PDP strongholds in 2019. That was why Buhari despite is unpopularity in such states as Plateau, Benue, Taraba, SS and some SE states still had a good showing in those states. It was a case of inflating votes and suppressing the votes of your opponents. I saw it myself. Most of those states, the use of card reader did not stop them from changing the numbers on the EC8A forms. All such shenanigans will be out the window with BVAS.

Agboriotejoye:


This boy
You have come again with your childish tantrums and inability to comprehend simple grammar. Where did I say that PDP structure will deliver Benue. I said Obi does not have the structure to win though he has a good chance in Benue. You went ballistic like a child robbed of his sweets. Structure doesn't win elections my boy. What it does is to ensure that you're not robbed of victory especially in your areas of strength, and also helps to limit your opponents' penetration as well as improve your showing in areas you're not so popular. But if you're not popular or acceptable to the general populace, even if you have structure you will ultimately lose. The only way you can win is if your opponent is weak structure-wise, then your structure can rig the election in your favour like Osun, Kano guber recently, etc. Learn this boy. I have taken my time to teach you so you don't throw such tantrums again. PDP had the structure in 2015 yet still lost. Obi would have been the frontrunner for this election easily if not for the lack of structure of the Labour Party. That's why I'm looking at his trajectory with one eye to see what he can build by January next year.

You are the one who have been naming people as structure you're relying on. For example, you actually believe Benue people will not vote for PDP because of Ortom but vote for Tinubu's Muslim Muslim because the APC guber candidate is a Rev. Fr. Same man who cried out recently that they are losing followers to Obi. You're also claiming Akume will talk to Tiv people to vote a Muslim Muslim. You actually think people are zombies who are directed where to vote by their political overlords. We shall see though. The issues that are germane to people of Benue and Plateau are security of their lives and the security of their lands. They will remember that it is APC government who brought Fulani bandits to kill them. They will remember that under a Fulani PDP president Yaradua, they had no such problem. Instead, they were protected with a military outfit. They will also be concerned about the discrimination and marginalization they are suffering by the Muslim Muslim ticket which seeks to relegate them as second class citizens in the Northern political equation. So, Benue people are not so blind to not see that it is APC political machinery that helped Fulani to kill them in their lands and sent Femi Adesina a Deacon of Foursquare to tell them to surrender their lands. They will also realize that it is same APC machinery that is looking to relegate them in the North with Muslim Muslim ticket. They will not forget that Atiku gave Ayu their son party chairmanship while Buhari took a Muslim again as party chair.

APC is not rooted in Niger. All the heavyweight polticians in Niger are still in PDP till now. Talk of Kure, Jerry Gana, even the two generals in Minna are PDP leaning. APC only benefitted from the Chanji of 2015 and bombs that went off in Suleja and Kontangora which made Niger people to tilt towards APC. But under Buhari, they have suffered heavily. bandits have taken over almost the whole state while they are besoughted with bad roads. They will prefer to go back to PDP than stay with APC the blood-sucking party.

The Kanuris occupy only two states in NE and those are not the largest states by voting strength. At that, their being pro North will mean some of them will tilt towards Atiku since he is offering NE presidency while APC is offering them VP.

Yahaya Bello alone cannot be said to be Ebira. Audu was an Atiku guy while he was alive and his political machinery will always tilt towards Atiku. Besides, I don't know why you're banking on violence to win elections. What manner of creature are you? Anyways 2019 is not 2023. If Bello tries to do any violence, he will most certainly meet his waterloo. Okun people will not be deceived by the claims of Tinubu being Yoruba. You already heard Cardinal Onaiyekan a prominent Okun man saying he will not vote for Muslim Muslim. Okun people for your info are also northern Christians who will be marginalized by the muslim muslim experiment. It is in their best interest that it fails which is why you see Smart Adeyemi also making subtle moves to reject the ticket.

A politician not on the ballot will try his best to deliver his candidate so as to have a chance of being a part of the government if the candidate wins overall. It is your assumption that a politician on the ballot will work harder than one who is not. One who is on the ballot will be more emotionally and financially invested in the race, but he can also go rogue if he sees that his party's candidate will be a hard sell. Saraki is already getting the people on his side. Kwarans have deemed Abdulrazaq a failure which is why he has been trying to introduce religious issues into the politics of Kwara. If not for federal might and the financial warchest Tinubu offered in 2019, Abdulrazaq and Lai are ants where Saraki is an elephant. Watch out for 2023. Saraki now has the sympathy of Kwarans. The only thing working in Tinubu's favour in Kwara is the fact that they are majority Yoruba Muslims in Kwara and will easily identify with his ticket as a victory for their religion. But other than that, Kwarans are really pissed with APC.

There was voter suppression and votes inflation all throughout the PDP strongholds in 2019. That was why Buhari despite is unpopularity in such states as Plateau, Benue, Taraba, SS and some SE states still had a good showing in those states. It was a case of inflating votes and suppressing the votes of your opponents. I saw it myself. Most of those states, the use of card reader did not stop them from changing the numbers on the EC8A forms. All such shenanigans will be out the window with BVAS.

Rev alia never claimed that apc is losing candidates.the claim was made by Anthony obekpa who is allied to Barnabas gemade.he said apc are losing members to labour in ogbadibo and apc has never won that LGA...
Fulani attacks has always been present in benue plateau.it only got worse in benue under buhari but it reduced in plateau under...the worse of attacks on the plateau happened during the eras of jang and dariye.a state of emergency was declared by obj.jang was even accused of sponsoring attacks on fulanis.the greatest tragedy was the massacre of dogon na hauwa.same thing in southern Kaduna.the primary problem of northern Christians is fulanis not muslins.they no a southern Muslim will never tolerate banditry compared to a northern fulani like atiku..they saw his recant on Deborah.no hope for atiku.they managed him in 2019 but with a better option in obi,they have abandoned him...

Bello is the foremost ebira,the only ebira to ever be governor.they will alwats follow him.since his emergence,pdp has never won in ebira.a defeat for tinubu will mean he cannot install his successor.is cardinal onaiyekan a politician? Does he speaks for the okun? Did PST oyedepo not support atiku,did atiku win kwara? Has afenifere made gej and atiku to win sw? You have no point?

Bvas has been in use since 2020.it has minimized rigging in edo,ekiti,Osun but failed to do same in crs,bayelsa,plateau,IMO.it works mostly in urbanized states/areas and is suppressed at the rural areas.politicians by now will get use to it..there was a rerun election in niger where apc was excluded.the apc supporters supported apga and pdp lost in 2021.I have the link if you want.only a weak party will lose to apga in the north.Jerry gana,muazu are elitist,have never been in touch with the grassroots and will alwats fail.they are abj politicians.bago is a grassrooter,even winning when pdp held sway.same for sen David umaru.
If there was voter suppression,why didnt they raise alarm like in rivers and lagos? I followed the 2019 polls even while working for inec.immediately results were declared at the units from 2pm,it was posted online live before it got to the collation centres.from those results,you could easily see that buhari was doing well in se/ss.immediately my own polling unit result was counted,I posted it here on nairaland,56-26 around 5pm meanwhile in that same unit,gej got over 100 and buhari got 7.does that not tell you that buhari did well with or without rigging? The only rigging I recalled was in yakurr where the minister of niger delta forcefully delivered his ward for apc and I posted the result here.the man is still in apc working for tinubu and ayade is now in apc.who is going to stop them from cajoling people to vote tinubu? Is it sandy that is with wike? There are places where voting will be free and fair,others won't be.there is nothing me or I can do about it.these men will deliver for tinubu and if they can't,elections will be cancelled which will still affect atiku negatively.he just can't win lad...

Many voters in nigeria are largely illiterates or unenlightened.they like voting one way.in 2015 because of buhari,the north voted apc.it helped buhari in 2019 in the south and it will help tinubu up north and ss/se.some voters that will vote ouk in abia north and umahi in ebonyi will vote apc allthriugh.it will come in handy where obi is sweeping everywhere and pdp didnt field popular persons son.

Late abubakar audu is igala not ebira.he was never in pdp but anpp and apc.he was never aligned to atiku.stop talking nonsense..
You betrayed yourself as usual by saying party structure can only win elections in a place where a candidate is weak.pdp is weak in borno,yobe,zamfara,katsina,gombe therefore apc structure will overrun them as it did in 2019.borno,yobe always gives bloc votes.gombe and bauchi gives for buhari and with buhari out,it will divide.taraba,Adamawa always share votes and with obi in play,no bloc votes.atiku might just lose ne.the only party apc has no presence is anambra.pdp will certainly get nothing from here too.in Enugu,ugwuanyi is against atiku.chimatoke nnamani has publicly aligned with tinubu despite being a pdp ticket holder.ken nnamani,Sullivan chime are part of apc council.how atiku go do?

garfield1:



Rev alia never claimed that apc is losing candidates.the claim was made by Anthony obekpa who is allied to Barnabas gemade.he said apc are losing members to labour in ogbadibo and apc has never won that LGA...
Fulani attacks has always been present in benue plateau.it only got worse in benue under buhari but it reduced in plateau under...the worse of attacks on the plateau happened during the eras of jang and dariye.a state of emergency was declared by obj.jang was even accused of sponsoring attacks on fulanis.the greatest tragedy was the massacre of dogon na hauwa.same thing in southern Kaduna.the primary problem of northern Christians is fulanis not muslins.they no a southern Muslim will never tolerate banditry compared to a northern fulani like atiku..they saw his recant on Deborah.no hope for atiku.they managed him in 2019 but with a better option in obi,they have abandoned him...

Bello is the foremost ebira,the only ebira to ever be governor.they will alwats follow him.since his emergence,pdp has never won in ebira.a defeat for tinubu will mean he cannot install his successor.is cardinal onaiyekan a politician? Does he speaks for the okun? Did PST oyedepo not support atiku,did atiku win kwara? Has afenifere made gej and atiku to win sw? You have no point?

Bvas has been in use since 2020.it has minimized rigging in edo,ekiti,Osun but failed to do same in crs,bayelsa,plateau,IMO.it works mostly in urbanized states/areas and is suppressed at the rural areas.politicians by now will get use to it..there was a rerun election in niger where apc was excluded.the apc supporters supported apga and pdp lost in 2021.I have the link if you want.only a weak party will lose to apga in the north.Jerry gana,muazu are elitist,have never been in touch with the grassroots and will alwats fail.they are abj politicians.bago is a grassrooter,even winning when pdp held sway.same for sen David umaru.
If there was voter suppression,why didnt they raise alarm like in rivers and lagos? I followed the 2019 polls even while working for inec.immediately results were declared at the units from 2pm,it was posted online live before it got to the collation centres.from those results,you could easily see that buhari was doing well in se/ss.immediately my own polling unit result was counted,I posted it here on nairaland,56-26 around 5pm meanwhile in that same unit,gej got over 100 and buhari got 7.does that not tell you that buhari did well with or without rigging? The only rigging I recalled was in yakurr where the minister of niger delta forcefully delivered his ward for apc and I posted the result here.the man is still in apc working for tinubu and ayade is now in apc.who is going to stop them from cajoling people to vote tinubu? Is it sandy that is with wike? There are places where voting will be free and fair,others won't be.there is nothing me or I can do about it.these men will deliver for tinubu and if they can't,elections will be cancelled which will still affect atiku negatively.he just can't win lad...

Many voters in nigeria are largely illiterates or unenlightened.they like voting one way.in 2015 because of buhari,the north voted apc.it helped buhari in 2019 in the south and it will help tinubu up north and ss/se.some voters that will vote ouk in abia north and umahi in ebonyi will vote apc allthriugh.it will come in handy where obi is sweeping everywhere and pdp didnt field popular persons son.

Late abubakar audu is igala not ebira.he was never in pdp but anpp and apc.he was never aligned to atiku.stop talking nonsense..
You betrayed yourself as usual by saying party structure can only win elections in a place where a candidate is weak.pdp is weak in borno,yobe,zamfara,katsina,gombe therefore apc structure will overrun them as it did in 2019.borno,yobe always gives bloc votes.gombe and bauchi gives for buhari and with buhari out,it will divide.taraba,Adamawa always share votes and with obi in play,no bloc votes.atiku might just lose ne.the only party apc has no presence is anambra.pdp will certainly get nothing from here too.in Enugu,ugwuanyi is against atiku.chimatoke nnamani has publicly aligned with tinubu despite being a pdp ticket holder.ken nnamani,Sullivan chime are part of apc council.how atiku go do?

Whoever made the claim, what is obvious is that the APC is severely divided in Benue and the priest is a suspended priest. How such a divided party that is highly unpopular wants to win with an abominable muslim muslim ticket is what I don't understand. People have been defecting left, right and centre from APC in Benue. Even the present LP candidate is an House of Reps member of APC who defected. APC is in disarray in Benue and their suspended priest and muslim muslim ticket can't help them.

How did it Fulani attacks reduce in Plateau? Were you living under a rock when curfews were imposed repeatedly in Plateau state? One even led to the death of innocent travelers in reprisal attacks! The reason no one is declaring state of emergency is because it is no longer fashionable. If it was in those days, Benue, Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Sokoto and Zamfara would have experienced state of emergency. What is Fulani and what is muslim? Who are those who advised Tinubu to pick Muslim Muslim? Is it not the Fulanis to further their domination agenda? While he might have picked a Kanuri in his mind to break away from them? The fact still remains they are the ultimate winners if the ticket sails through. Their domination agenda through religion is enhanced. Have you wondered why the worst hit areas are places that are Christian dominated?

Bello is highly unloved in Ebiraland. He is seen as disrespectful and high-handed. Besides, Ebira are not the majority in Kogi. It is Igalas. Onaiyekan is not asking anyone not to vote Muslim Muslim. He said it as a personal choice and he is speaking the mind of majority of the Christian Okuns. Oyedepo never said anyone should vote Atiku. Even if he did, he never said they should vote Atiku on grounds of religion. This time around, religion has been introduced into politics with the Muslim Muslim ticket. So, it is trite that people will follow their religious leaders to defend their religion from supremacist agenda.

Share the link. Are you saying APGA is now stronger than PDP in Niger? This dude self. Jerry Gana and Muazu are elitist but Sani Bello whose father has an oil well and is in-law to Abdulsalam is grassroots abi? Umar Bago who is representing Minna the capital in House of Reps is grassroots abi? You're one funny dude. David Umaru was decimated and humiliated by APC in Niger. You are banking on him to support a Muslim Muslim ticket. You're really funny.

There was vote inflation in APC areas of strength and votes suppression in APC areas of weakness in 2019. I witnessed it for a fact. They delayed so many results because of such shenanigans especially at zonal collation centres. The same results you're hyping were the ones rejected by INEC at the SC when they said they had no servers and instead went for the ones that came from the Zonal collation centres. All such shenanigans are out the window since results will be uploaded real time in 2023. So expect surprises like you've not seen before.

The voting patterns will still remain the same. North will voter for their son while the South will do theirs. In that case, Atiku will win 3 zones, Obi 2 and Tinubu 1. Who is the winner. And if we are talking about spread, PDP structure in SS/SE will give them required 25% in at least 7 states out of the 11 there. So it is obvious who the calculations favour overall. Dear boy, APC is on its way out of Aso rock

When did I say party structure will help you win were a candidate is weak. I said were the popular candidate has a weak structure, the party with strong structure can rig to win. Rigging is not winning an election. It is stealing an election.
Apart from Borno, Zamfara and Yobe, all other states you mentioned have strong PDP structure. So rewrite all your nonsense in tandem with that reality.

Agboriotejoye:


Whoever made the claim, what is obvious is that the APC is severely divided in Benue and the priest is a suspended priest. How such a divided party that is highly unpopular wants to win with an abominable muslim muslim ticket is what I don't understand. People have been defecting left, right and centre from APC in Benue. Even the present LP candidate is an House of Reps member of APC who defected. APC is in disarray in Benue and their suspended priest and muslim muslim ticket can't help them.

How did it Fulani attacks reduce in Plateau? Were you living under a rock when curfews were imposed repeatedly in Plateau state? One even led to the death of innocent travelers in reprisal attacks! The reason no one is declaring state of emergency is because it is no longer fashionable. If it was in those days, Benue, Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Sokoto and Zamfara would have experienced state of emergency. What is Fulani and what is muslim? Who are those who advised Tinubu to pick Muslim Muslim? Is it not the Fulanis to further their domination agenda? While he might have picked a Kanuri in his mind to break away from them? The fact still remains they are the ultimate winners if the ticket sails through. Their domination agenda through religion is enhanced. Have you wondered why the worst hit areas are places that are Christian dominated?

Bello is highly unloved in Ebiraland. He is seen as disrespectful and high-handed. Besides, Ebira are not the majority in Kogi. It is Igalas. Onaiyekan is not asking anyone not to vote Muslim Muslim. He said it as a personal choice and he is speaking the mind of majority of the Christian Okuns. Oyedepo never said anyone should vote Atiku. Even if he did, he never said they should vote Atiku on grounds of religion. This time around, religion has been introduced into politics with the Muslim Muslim ticket. So, it is trite that people will follow their religious leaders to defend their religion from supremacist agenda.

Share the link. Are you saying APGA is now stronger than PDP in Niger? This dude self. Jerry Gana and Muazu are elitist but Sani Bello whose father has an oil well and is in-law to Abdulsalam is grassroots abi? Umar Bago who is representing Minna the capital in House of Reps is grassroots abi? You're one funny dude. David Umaru was decimated and humiliated by APC in Niger. You are banking on him to support a Muslim Muslim ticket. You're really funny.

There was vote inflation in APC areas of strength and votes suppression in APC areas of weakness in 2019. I witnessed it for a fact. They delayed so many results because of such shenanigans especially at zonal collation centres. The same results you're hyping were the ones rejected by INEC at the SC when they said they had no servers and instead went for the ones that came from the Zonal collation centres. All such shenanigans are out the window since results will be uploaded real time in 2023. So expect surprises like you've not seen before.

The voting patterns will still remain the same. North will voter for their son while the South will do theirs. In that case, Atiku will win 3 zones, Obi 2 and Tinubu 1. Who is the winner. And if we are talking about spread, PDP structure in SS/SE will give them required 25% in at least 7 states out of the 11 there. So it is obvious who the calculations favour overall. Dear boy, APC is on its way out of Aso rock

When did I say party structure will help you win were a candidate is weak. I said were the popular candidate has a weak structure, the party with strong structure can rig to win. Rigging is not winning an election. It is stealing an election.
Apart from Borno, Zamfara and Yobe, all other states you mentioned have strong PDP structure. So rewrite all your nonsense in tandem with that reality.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nairaland.com/6403658/apga-wins-rerun-election-niger&ved=2ahUKEwiB9Y-pks_6AhWCxwIHHdaXD5sQFnoECBQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2AwO9rj4u9pcEPtmEpsL2e

Thats the link where apc supported apga to thrash your party.bago is more graasrooted than any one in niger pdp...
There is no division in benue apc.it has alwats been under the control of akume,a loyalist of tinubu plus a guber candidate who is widely loved and is the gov in waiting.it is far better than pdp that is not working for atiku.hembe defected because of his guber ambition...
The ebiras may not like bello but they are more apc than okuns and igalas.the igalas who are majority will divide votes thereby giving tinubu a narrow win from okun and ebira votes...we can count the number of fulani attacks under Buhari in plateau but you can't under pdp.plateau will go for labour and then apc.the only pdp senator in plateau is now in labour.pdp and atiku has no rallying force in plateau and benue...
Yobe,borno and zamfara are most crucial states for apc.this is where pdp votes are lowest,it is where pdp are buried.their results always come last.the pdp structure there cannot do anything to stop whatever apc will cook.the votes where will come last as usual to give apc an unassailable lead.pdp had such states in ss/se but they are gone and even Delta is now a battle ground.only place atiku can hope for bloc votes is Adamawa but Christians may spoil that.pdp is very weak in kebbi if not for the defection of aliero.aliero is always selfish,cares about no one and with him not on the ticket might remain aloof.if not for shekarau defection,pdp is non existent in kano.inec hasn't even published a candidate for the party.same thing in Ogun.no one knows where dankwambo stands....

Even though lp party structure is weak in some states,the overwhelming popularity of obi in benue,plateau,fct,SD/se will give him victory....where apc is weakest in Enugu and anambra,obi has neutralized pdp gains.tinubu all the way

garfield1:


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nairaland.com/6403658/apga-wins-rerun-election-niger&ved=2ahUKEwiB9Y-pks_6AhWCxwIHHdaXD5sQFnoECBQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2AwO9rj4u9pcEPtmEpsL2e

Thats the link where apc supported apga to thrash your party.bago is more graasrooted than any one in niger pdp...
There is no division in benue apc.it has alwats been under the control of akume,a loyalist of tinubu plus a guber candidate who is widely loved and is the gov in waiting.it is far better than pdp that is not working for atiku.hembe defected because of his guber ambition...
The ebiras may not like bello but they are more apc than okuns and igalas.the igalas who are majority will divide votes thereby giving tinubu a narrow win from okun and ebira votes...we can count the number of fulani attacks under Buhari in plateau but you can't under pdp.plateau will go for labour and then apc.the only pdp senator in plateau is now in labour.pdp and atiku has no rallying force in plateau and benue...
Yobe,borno and zamfara are most crucial states for apc.this is where pdp votes are lowest,it is where pdp are buried.their results always come last.the pdp structure there cannot do anything to stop whatever apc will cook.the votes where will come last as usual to give apc an unassailable lead.pdp had such states in ss/se but they are gone and even Delta is now a battle ground.only place atiku can hope for bloc votes is Adamawa but Christians may spoil that.pdp is very weak in kebbi if not for the defection of aliero.aliero is always selfish,cares about no one and with him not on the ticket might remain aloof.if not for shekarau defection,pdp is non existent in kano.inec hasn't even published a candidate for the party.same thing in Ogun.no one knows where dankwambo stands....

Even though lp party structure is weak in some states,the overwhelming popularity of obi in benue,plateau,fct,SD/se will give him victory....where apc is weakest in Enugu and anambra,obi has neutralized pdp gains.tinubu all the way

This boy
You always manage to show your political naivety. First of all, you already said it that APC supported APGA candidate. Not only that, it is obvious the PDP was campaigned against on the grounds of religion which is surely why the election was violent. Lastly, it's obvious the election was rigged using the instrumentality of violence. So I wonder how this shows that APC is stronger than PDP in Niger. You just proved nothing but showed how APC played the religious card.
Bago is even seen as an usurper in APC and Niger South he claims to represent for governor. How can someone who is House member for Minna claim to represent Niger South of Bida? He is largely unknown in Niger South.
Gemade has his own group in Benue APC. Same with Aondoakaa. Yet you say there's no division. Since Akume alone can make one governor in Benue, why did PDP win Benue guber in 2019? Why didn't ACN win Benue when he was with them? You're a joker. Benue will have nothing to do with Muslim Muslim ticket. It's common knowledge. Most Benue are Catholics, winners and Dunamis. Enenche of Dunamis claimed recently that all his church members must be Obidients. Lol. APC will so lose badly in Benue.
The Okuns and Igalas have become opposition in Kogi. All the rigging and vote inflation Bello used to do is out the window with BVAS. He will collect steadily from Igalas and Okuns. Okun will not vote Tinubu. The highest ranking politician from there smart Adeyemi has shown that his people are against Muslim Muslim ticket. What else are you banking on? You think Okun people are pro-yoruba? You don't know them then. They see themselves as Northern Yorubas.
Stop yarning dust. Fulani attacks under APC in plateau is worse than under PDP. Lalong has been suppressing it but it is a fact those people live with and them being majority Christians in the North, will reject Muslim Muslim ticket. Plateau is a traditional PDP state and PDP still remains strong there. PDP will win there convincingly.
When did Yobe, Borno and Zamfara become game changers in elections? They can't even cover Kaduna votes alone. PDP will perform better here than the last two elections due to the spillover effect of a northerner being on the ballot. But they can't influence elections like Bauchi in NE and Kano, Kaduna, Katsina in NW.
You seem to have forgotten that Shekarau is now in PDP in Kano and the Abacha family as well.
PDP now has Aliero and Yahaya in Kebbi. I don't really care for all these names. It's neophytes like you that do. Kebbi will flip back to PDP. They always are pro-North.
Dankwambo openly declared support for Atiku recently under harassment from his followers. That's what I'm telling you about all these names you're calling. Their interests may lie somewhere else but they can't force voters. Same scenario played out with Kwankwaso in 2019 with the Kwankwassiya. They refused to vote Atiku despite his directive.
Even with LP, I can bet PDP will still win SS even if not SE. They still have five govs and four of those are effectively with Atiku, coupled with Rivers where a good number of the politicians are with Atiku. So forget. PDP can boast of hope in 4 regions and thus are the frontrunners.

Agboriotejoye:


This boy
You always manage to show your political naivety. First of all, you already said it that APC supported APGA candidate. Not only that, it is obvious the PDP was campaigned against on the grounds of religion which is surely why the election was violent. Lastly, it's obvious the election was rigged using the instrumentality of violence. So I wonder how this shows that APC is stronger than PDP in Niger. You just proved nothing but showed how APC played the religious card.
Bago is even seen as an usurper in APC and Niger South he claims to represent for governor. How can someone who is House member for Minna claim to represent Niger South of Bida? He is largely unknown in Niger South.
Gemade has his own group in Benue APC. Same with Aondoakaa. Yet you say there's no division. Since Akume alone can make one governor in Benue, why did PDP win Benue guber in 2019? Why didn't ACN win Benue when he was with them? You're a joker. Benue will have nothing to do with Muslim Muslim ticket. It's common knowledge. Most Benue are Catholics, winners and Dunamis. Enenche of Dunamis claimed recently that all his church members must be Obidients. Lol. APC will so lose badly in Benue.
The Okuns and Igalas have become opposition in Kogi. All the rigging and vote inflation Bello used to do is out the window with BVAS. He will collect steadily from Igalas and Okuns. Okun will not vote Tinubu. The highest ranking politician from there smart Adeyemi has shown that his people are against Muslim Muslim ticket. What else are you banking on? You think Okun people are pro-yoruba? You don't know them then. They see themselves as Northern Yorubas.
Stop yarning dust. Fulani attacks under APC in plateau is worse than under PDP. Lalong has been suppressing it but it is a fact those people live with and them being majority Christians in the North, will reject Muslim Muslim ticket. Plateau is a traditional PDP state and PDP still remains strong there. PDP will win there convincingly.
When did Yobe, Borno and Zamfara become game changers in elections? They can't even cover Kaduna votes alone. PDP will perform better here than the last two elections due to the spillover effect of a northerner being on the ballot. But they can't influence elections like Bauchi in NE and Kano, Kaduna, Katsina in NW.
You seem to have forgotten that Shekarau is now in PDP in Kano and the Abacha family as well.
PDP now has Aliero and Yahaya in Kebbi. I don't really care for all these names. It's neophytes like you that do. Kebbi will flip back to PDP. They always are pro-North.
Dankwambo openly declared support for Atiku recently under harassment from his followers. That's what I'm telling you about all these names you're calling. Their interests may lie somewhere else but they can't force voters. Same scenario played out with Kwankwaso in 2019 with the Kwankwassiya. They refused to vote Atiku despite his directive.
Even with LP, I can bet PDP will still win SS even if not SE. They still have five govs and four of those are effectively with Atiku, coupled with Rivers where a good number of the politicians are with Atiku. So forget. PDP can boast of hope in 4 regions and thus are the frontrunners.

Bago that has been in nass since 2011 is not popular,someone that pushed femi in the race for speaker,that won guber ticket against the governors candidate? Are you ok? What childish reasoning is this? Do you know what it means to defeat a govs candidate in a primaries? Cab you count up to 10 people that have achieved that since 1999? Apc dominates Niger and are more grassrooted.how many defections have you seen there to pdp to start with? Kure,muazu,gana are not in touch with the grassroot.if apc is not so strong,why didn't bello lose his second term like apc did in bauchi,adamawa,afterall the pdp candidate has links to ibb? Why couldn't pdp win even one legislative seat? Apc won seats in pdp States delta,bayelsa,abia,ebonyi,crs? Always yarning dust.
Plateau even when it was a traditional pdp States never gave pdp bloc votes.it seems you are far from reality.plateau has tilted to labour.how many times will I tell you that majority of opinion polls in YouTube from plateau says they prefer obi? As they won't vote apc,they won't vote fulwni pdp..
Aondoakaa and gemade are aggrieved aspirants.aondoakaa was brought by akume to contest for guber.gemade left apc in 2019 and then to apga and then pdp and now in apc.there is no faction.even ortom could not snatch the structure from akume before his defection.all factors point to apc finishing second except for sentimental blindness.
In 2015 and 2019,results from borno,yobe and zamfara were the last to bevdeclared.even though apc was in the lead,they cemented everything.kano,Kaduna,katsina only put apc in the lead ahead of apc.them borno buried pdp.go back and check presidential result devlaraton state by state before coming up with baseless arguments.pdp lowest votes are from these areas.ask yourself why.even though with bvas rigging will be difficult,the insecurity and geography will make rigging here easier than other states and will declare last as usual.

Dankwambo declared for atiku is mere political.are you in his mind! Can you see the moves of his followers? You claimed govs are not important yet you boasted that pdp has more govs in ss who will deliver.diri has been accused by seriake Dickson of being in bed with apc.obaseki publicly praised lp and sponsored candidates in lp.he is in between which means he isn't fully committed.only okowa and udom can be said to he with atiku fully by virtue of posts they hold in pdp now.no pdp gov in south csn give apc electorally like wike.diri,obaseki and udom cannot go all out like ayade.even in se,you cannot compare the electoral prowess and desperation of ugwuanyi and ikpeazu to hope and umahi.in any case,they are not with atiku...the apc machinery as usual will overwhelm and bury pdp.

Abacha family has never been a factor in kano elections plus inec hasn't published any name.shekarau can't do anything.very soon,you will mention dangote since you lack what to say...
Aliero alone cannot do it for atiku moreover his allegiance is doubtful plus he isn't on the ticket.the northerners love power but they want a southerner to rule in order to keep the polity stable.less I forget,the popularity of sen hunkuyi will curry pdp votes in Kaduna north to kwankwaso.uba sani owns Kaduna central...in any case,Kaduna,kano,sokoto and ss and will become battle ground which will be settled by borno and co,sw and se

garfield1:


Bago that has been in nass since 2011 is not popular,someone that pushed femi in the race for speaker,that won guber ticket against the governors candidate? Are you ok? What childish reasoning is this? Do you know what it means to defeat a govs candidate in a primaries? Cab you count up to 10 people that have achieved that since 1999? Apc dominates Niger and are more grassrooted.how many defections have you seen there to pdp to start with? Kure,muazu,gana are not in touch with the grassroot.if apc is not so strong,why didn't bello lose his second term like apc did in bauchi,adamawa,afterall the pdp candidate has links to ibb? Why couldn't pdp win even one legislative seat? Apc won seats in pdp States delta,bayelsa,abia,ebonyi,crs? Always yarning dust.
Plateau even when it was a traditional pdp States never gave pdp bloc votes.it seems you are far from reality.plateau has tilted to labour.how many times will I tell you that majority of opinion polls in YouTube from plateau says they prefer obi? As they won't vote apc,they won't vote fulwni pdp..
Aondoakaa and gemade are aggrieved aspirants.aondoakaa was brought by akume to contest for guber.gemade left apc in 2019 and then to apga and then pdp and now in apc.there is no faction.even ortom could not snatch the structure from akume before his defection.all factors point to apc finishing second except for sentimental blindness.
In 2015 and 2019,results from borno,yobe and zamfara were the last to bevdeclared.even though apc was in the lead,they cemented everything.kano,Kaduna,katsina only put apc in the lead ahead of apc.them borno buried pdp.go back and check presidential result devlaraton state by state before coming up with baseless arguments.pdp lowest votes are from these areas.ask yourself why.even though with bvas rigging will be difficult,the insecurity and geography will make rigging here easier than other states and will declare last as usual.

Dankwambo declared for atiku is mere political.are you in his mind! Can you see the moves of his followers? You claimed govs are not important yet you boasted that pdp has more govs in ss who will deliver.diri has been accused by seriake Dickson of being in bed with apc.obaseki publicly praised lp and sponsored candidates in lp.he is in between which means he isn't fully committed.only okowa and udom can be said to he with atiku fully by virtue of posts they hold in pdp now.no pdp gov in south csn give apc electorally like wike.diri,obaseki and udom cannot go all out like ayade.even in se,you cannot compare the electoral prowess and desperation of ugwuanyi and ikpeazu to hope and umahi.in any case,they are not with atiku...the apc machinery as usual will overwhelm and bury pdp.

Abacha family has never been a factor in kano elections plus inec hasn't published any name.shekarau can't do anything.very soon,you will mention dangote since you lack what to say...
Aliero alone cannot do it for atiku moreover his allegiance is doubtful plus he isn't on the ticket.the northerners love power but they want a southerner to rule in order to keep the polity stable.less I forget,the popularity of sen hunkuyi will curry pdp votes in Kaduna north to kwankwaso.uba sani owns Kaduna central...in any case,Kaduna,kano,sokoto and ss and will become battle ground which will be settled by borno and co,sw and se

Bago has been a rep member all his life. He has never vied for Senate not to talk of governorship yet you claim he's more popular than Talba that spent 8 years as gov. Now you're claiming Bago won because he's more popular than Lolo. Is it not a pointer to how politically poor Lolo is that a house of reps member beat him to his guber ticket in a state where he purportedly controls the structure.
You claim to be an APC urchin but know next to nothing. Do you think Bago won only on his popularity? For your info, he won based on support of a general who financially sponsored him. He outspent the failure of a gov to buy the delegates to his side. Even when Lolo was junketing between Kd and London, Kure and Muazu were in Minna. They live in Minna till now. Only gana lives in Abuja among the trio. Yet you claim a Bago who is usually in Abuja is more rooted than they are. I was in Niger in 2015 and I can tell you Nasko was the favorite for guber until the Chanji storm started. Same in 2019. It was even Lolo that sponsored Nasko to come out for PDP since most of the PDP guys had already moved to APC and those who remained were not ready to fight. PDP is fully activated in Niger now and Kantigi is well rooted in Niger South. PDP was abandoned in the most states of the north. Did you see Namadi Sambo and Makarfi campaign for anyone in Kd in 2019? They are seriously campaigning for Atiku in Kd now. APC won seats in southern States because some Southerners moved to APC to survive. It's not because APC was popular or attractive in those areas. We'll see whether APC will retain Cross river and Ebonyi in the guber next year. I'll remind you how it goes.
Who is talking about bloc votes. Why are you so obsessed with bloc votes. PDP will win Plateau as they have always done. All this your story will count for nothing Las Las. It's a testament to the unpopularity of APC there that you're banking on LP to win Plateau for you. Meanwhile you have a sitting governor there and campaign DG.
You like to shalaye. You said APC is united in Benue. I gave you examples of divided people, you now start giving reasons why they are divided. Na wa o. How can APC that have masterminded harvest of deaths in Benue come second? I'm interested to see how they do it with their Muslim Muslim ticket.
What difference did the three states make? That's what I asked. They have been voting for APC legacy parties since 1999 yet never won till other parts of the north joined them in 2015 yet you claim they are pivotal. How? They have voted for the winning candidate just twice out of 6 election cycles and you're here saying they're pivotal. I tire for your analysis o.
Let me tell you, in terms of swing, all candidates that have won presidential since 1999 have won the NC. That's the swing belt of Nigerian national politics.
You have started misinterpreting me again. I never said govs are not important. Listen to what I'm saying. Govs and structure etc are helpful to a candidate only so far as he is popular in their area. PDP is popular in SS true or false? It's still the dominant party there so, it has a good chance of retaining the zone. That's what I said. Learn to understand issues. You're there one who is declaring victory for APC by naming 3 or 4 people in a state.
You're talking of electoral prowess and you're talking of a supreme Court gov. Lol. Even umahi who defected and couldn't get the house and other members of his party to defect with him. You're very funny.
Lol. Shekarau can't do anything. It's Ganduje that's the most powerful politician in Kano. Someone who couldn't get himself reelected.
All those names are your thoughts.
Fact is, PDP will make a strong showing in Kano if not outrightly winning. Same for most northern states controlled by APC.

Agboriotejoye:

Bago has been a rep member all his life. He has never vied for Senate not to talk of governorship yet you claim he's more popular than Talba that spent 8 years as gov. Now you're claiming Bago won because he's more popular than Lolo. Is it not a pointer to how politically poor Lolo is that a house of reps member beat him to his guber ticket in a state where he purportedly controls the structure.
You claim to be an APC urchin but know next to nothing. Do you think Bago won only on his popularity? For your info, he won based on support of a general who financially sponsored him. He outspent the failure of a gov to buy the delegates to his side. Even when Lolo was junketing between Kd and London, Kure and Muazu were in Minna. They live in Minna till now. Only gana lives in Abuja among the trio. Yet you claim a Bago who is usually in Abuja is more rooted than they are. I was in Niger in 2015 and I can tell you Nasko was the favorite for guber until the Chanji storm started. Same in 2019. It was even Lolo that sponsored Nasko to come out for PDP since most of the PDP guys had already moved to APC and those who remained were not ready to fight. PDP is fully activated in Niger now and Kantigi is well rooted in Niger South. PDP was abandoned in the most states of the north. Did you see Namadi Sambo and Makarfi campaign for anyone in Kd in 2019? They are seriously campaigning for Atiku in Kd now. APC won seats in southern States because some Southerners moved to APC to survive. It's not because APC was popular or attractive in those areas. We'll see whether APC will retain Cross river and Ebonyi in the guber next year. I'll remind you how it goes.
Who is talking about bloc votes. Why are you so obsessed with bloc votes. PDP will win Plateau as they have always done. All this your story will count for nothing Las Las. It's a testament to the unpopularity of APC there that you're banking on LP to win Plateau for you. Meanwhile you have a sitting governor there and campaign DG.
You like to shalaye. You said APC is united in Benue. I gave you examples of divided people, you now start giving reasons why they are divided. Na wa o. How can APC that have masterminded harvest of deaths in Benue come second? I'm interested to see how they do it with their Muslim Muslim ticket.
What difference did the three states make? That's what I asked. They have been voting for APC legacy parties since 1999 yet never won till other parts of the north joined them in 2015 yet you claim they are pivotal. How? They have voted for the winning candidate just twice out of 6 election cycles and you're here saying they're pivotal. I tire for your analysis o.
Let me tell you, in terms of swing, all candidates that have won presidential since 1999 have won the NC. That's the swing belt of Nigerian national politics.
You have started misinterpreting me again. I never said govs are not important. Listen to what I'm saying. Govs and structure etc are helpful to a candidate only so far as he is popular in their area. PDP is popular in SS true or false? It's still the dominant party there so, it has a good chance of retaining the zone. That's what I said. Learn to understand issues. You're there one who is declaring victory for APC by naming 3 or 4 people in a state.
You're talking of electoral prowess and you're talking of a supreme Court gov. Lol. Even umahi who defected and couldn't get the house and other members of his party to defect with him. You're very funny.
Lol. Shekarau can't do anything. It's Ganduje that's the most powerful politician in Kano. Someone who couldn't get himself reelected.
All those names are your thoughts.
Fact is, PDP will make a strong showing in Kano if not outrightly winning. Same for most northern states controlled by APC.

I never said lolo is rooted,that bago never contested for senate doesnt mean he isn't popular.it is all about calculations.for him to be the only opposition winning elections in niger shows how strong and popular he is...like I said,if lolo is poor politucall,he would have lost re election.pdp would have won at least one seat.how can apc win the entire 25 seats and pdp couldn't win any? This proves apc dominance.in sokoto,Kaduna,kebbi,jigawa,nasarawa,gombe,bauchi,pdp won something.that one is a governor doesnt make one popular.dont mistake notoriety for popularity.muazu was never liked.you can only be popular as a politician if you perform well.abaribe isn't a governor but he is more popular than ikpeazu...

Apc winning elections in ss/se is because they fielded popular candidates,something pdp has failed to do up north.this is another reason why tinubu will garner votes in se/ss as obi tsunami is changing the dynamics.saying pdp will win plateau because it is its tradional stronghold is like saying pdp will clear se/ss.this is beyond party in christian dominated areas.the masses,voters at the grassroots in plateau and benue want obi.tinubu will likely muscle the leftover votes...votes taken by obi in plateau and benue and north generally are indirectly good for tinubu as most of these votes would go to atiku.
As a worst case scenario,most states in the north like sokoto,kebbi,kano,Kaduna,taraba,gombe,plateau,nasarawa,Niger,jigawa etc will be turnedvto battlegrounds and hotly contested going by permutations currently and kperogi postulations.states like zamfara,borno,yobe,Adamawa,benue,kwara,katsina will now decide the winner up north and you know its tinubu emerging with sw burying atiku or the other way round...
The areas of the 4 govs you are calling in ss are besieged by obi fans.edo south where obaseki hails from,delta north of okowa,rivers east of wike are major bases of obidients.se/ss are the main pushers of the obi revolution.most of these govs are not even on the ballot and equally face stiff resistance from apc elements in their states...atiku is not popular there so they cant help him.
Even a child knows that makarfi and sambo are spent force,irrelevant in plateau.csn they win their units? The only popular person outside apc is sen hunkuyi and he is nnpp.he will gather votes for kwankwaso hitherto meant for atiku.atiku lule

garfield1:


I never said lolo is rooted,that bago never contested for senate doesnt mean he isn't popular.it is all about calculations.for him to be the only opposition winning elections in niger shows how strong and popular he is...like I said,if lolo is poor politucall,he would have lost re election.pdp would have won at least one seat.how can apc win the entire 25 seats and pdp couldn't win any? This proves apc dominance.in sokoto,Kaduna,kebbi,jigawa,nasarawa,gombe,bauchi,pdp won something.that one is a governor doesnt make one popular.dont mistake notoriety for popularity.muazu was never liked.you can only be popular as a politician if you perform well.abaribe isn't a governor but he is more popular than ikpeazu...

Apc winning elections in ss/se is because they fielded popular candidates,something pdp has failed to do up north.this is another reason why tinubu will garner votes in se/ss as obi tsunami is changing the dynamics.saying pdp will win plateau because it is its tradional stronghold is like saying pdp will clear se/ss.this is beyond party in christian dominated areas.the masses,voters at the grassroots in plateau and benue want obi.tinubu will likely muscle the leftover votes...votes taken by obi in plateau and benue and north generally are indirectly good for tinubu as most of these votes would go to atiku.
As a worst case scenario,most states in the north like sokoto,kebbi,kano,Kaduna,taraba,gombe,plateau,nasarawa,Niger,jigawa etc will be turnedvto battlegrounds and hotly contested going by permutations currently and kperogi postulations.states like zamfara,borno,yobe,Adamawa,benue,kwara,katsina will now decide the winner up north and you know its tinubu emerging with sw burying atiku or the other way round...
The areas of the 4 govs you are calling in ss are besieged by obi fans.edo south where obaseki hails from,delta north of okowa,rivers east of wike are major bases of obidients.se/ss are the main pushers of the obi revolution.most of these govs are not even on the ballot and equally face stiff resistance from apc elements in their states...atiku is not popular there so they cant help him.
Even a child knows that makarfi and sambo are spent force,irrelevant in plateau.csn they win their units? The only popular person outside apc is sen hunkuyi and he is nnpp.he will gather votes for kwankwaso hitherto meant for atiku.atiku lule

Lol. Lolo is no longer rooted. So, if Lolo is not rooted how is he the gov of APC the dominant party? Can a party that's dominant produce a gov that's not popular? The answer is in the Chanji storm. What calculations made Bago never run for Senate or governor since 2011? Since you say he's popular, can you tell me his base? Because he claims to come from Bida yet he's representing Minna. I've never heard of a popular politician without a base. It's just like saying James Faleke is popular in Kogi
I already told you it's a certain general that's sponsoring him and he outspent Lolo the dummy in the primaries. Lolo in his usual presumptive and condescending manner thought he can just pick someone and everyone will follow. He forgot there are godfathers in Niger. I was in Niger in 2015 and I can tell you nobody knew any Lolo 3 months before the election. It was Nasko all the way. Lolo like most other APC govs benefited from the Chanji tsunami. If he won on his own merits, how come simple primaries, he can't deliver? Him and El-Rufai are two guys I'm very sure will get the shock of their lives next year. As a matter of fact, I suspect that's why El-Rufai is taking backstage. He knows he doesn't have the grit politics wise. All those guys benefited from Chanji. Niger is one of the states whose gov chose to sabotage PDP from within. Even Talba lost his bid. And Talba is a far better gov than Lolo can ever dream to be.
It is even funny you say Talba was not liked. Is it Lolo that is now loved? He's easily the worst governor Niger has produced since 1999.
APC winning elections in SS/SE is because they incorporated rigging and violence through use of thugs. I don't know who the popular candidate is that they fielded. APC took over the violence PDP used to be known for in SS. Most thugs in SS are in APC camp. From dokubo to Kabaka to ayiri. APC is the new party of thugs.
PDP will win Plateau and the SS and Benue. Mark it down. If Obi wins those places, then he's surely on his way to claiming an unlikely victory. Obi will do well and affect both PDP and APC. In Benue and Plateau, most of those defecting to LP are from APC not PDP.
Lol. You're back to Borno, Yobe and Zamfara of the paltry 400k votes. I guess 400k wins elections.
PDP will win the North. Nothing like battleground anywhere. It's flogging all through for APC. There North will not abandon their own no matter how much you wish it.
The SS and SE are no-go areas for APC with their Muslim Muslim ticket. The improvement Buhari showed in those areas will wither away.
Atiku will win the North andv have a good showing in the South. APC will only win SW. All your calculations is on Obi. Same Obi your urchins are de-marketing everyday. You hardly see PDP attack Obi. It's always APC goons.
We'll see if Makarfi and Sambo are spent next year. It's just a few months. They didn't campaign in 2019. Now, they're doing so vigorously.
APC will become a regional party after 2023. They'll become AD classic

Agboriotejoye:

Lol. Lolo is no longer rooted. So, if Lolo is not rooted how is he the gov of APC the dominant party? Can a party that's dominant produce a gov that's not popular? The answer is in the Chanji storm. What calculations made Bago never run for Senate or governor since 2011? Since you say he's popular, can you tell me his base? Because he claims to come from Bida yet he's representing Minna. I've never heard of a popular politician without a base. It's just like saying James Faleke is popular in Kogi
I already told you it's a certain general that's sponsoring him and he outspent Lolo the dummy in the primaries. Lolo in his usual presumptive and condescending manner thought he can just pick someone and everyone will follow. He forgot there are godfathers in Niger. I was in Niger in 2015 and I can tell you nobody knew any Lolo 3 months before the election. It was Nasko all the way. Lolo like most other APC govs benefited from the Chanji tsunami. If he won on his own merits, how come simple primaries, he can't deliver? Him and El-Rufai are two guys I'm very sure will get the shock of their lives next year. As a matter of fact, I suspect that's why El-Rufai is taking backstage. He knows he doesn't have the grit politics wise. All those guys benefited from Chanji. Niger is one of the states whose gov chose to sabotage PDP from within. Even Talba lost his bid. And Talba is a far better gov than Lolo can ever dream to be.
It is even funny you say Talba was not liked. Is it Lolo that is now loved? He's easily the worst governor Niger has produced since 1999.
APC winning elections in SS/SE is because they incorporated rigging and violence through use of thugs. I don't know who the popular candidate is that they fielded. APC took over the violence PDP used to be known for in SS. Most thugs in SS are in APC camp. From dokubo to Kabaka to ayiri. APC is the new party of thugs.
PDP will win Plateau and the SS and Benue. Mark it down. If Obi wins those places, then he's surely on his way to claiming an unlikely victory. Obi will do well and affect both PDP and APC. In Benue and Plateau, most of those defecting to LP are from APC not PDP.
Lol. You're back to Borno, Yobe and Zamfara of the paltry 400k votes. I guess 400k wins elections.
PDP will win the North. Nothing like battleground anywhere. It's flogging all through for APC. There North will not abandon their own no matter how much you wish it.
The SS and SE are no-go areas for APC with their Muslim Muslim ticket. The improvement Buhari showed in those areas will wither away.
Atiku will win the North andv have a good showing in the South. APC will only win SW. All your calculations is on Obi. Same Obi your urchins are de-marketing everyday. You hardly see PDP attack Obi. It's always APC goons.
We'll see if Makarfi and Sambo are spent next year. It's just a few months. They didn't campaign in 2019. Now, they're doing so vigorously.
APC will become a regional party after 2023. They'll become AD classic

Talba performed better than lolo but like lollo,he isn't grsrooted.apc is more rooted in niger.bago is a nupe,he can represent anywhere he likes within nupe land or Niger.in cross rivet,hon essien ayi the most popular pdp politician is from odukpani but represent a different constituency within same senate zone.hon Chris agara plays his politics in two lgas in central cross river.hon Jude ogbeche representing ogoja yala is from ogoja but claims yala.senator gershom bassey is from odukpani but plays his politics in calabar.the popular yayi is representing lagos central but is set to extend his grip to Ogun.tinubu nko? Aregbesola nko? As usual,you have no point.you enjoy whining in frivolities.

What evidence do you have that el rufai took a backstage? Must he make noise in the media? He is a member of the campaign council,his son is on the ballot and uba is his stooge he cannot stay away.being on a quiet mood doesnt mean anything.a lot of govs osuooorting tinubu are on the low key after a campaign is just starting.apart from the sai chanji,el rufai is politically strong and rooted.it was not just buhari that brought him to power.he crushed yero a godson of makarfi and sambo with an unprecedented margin in a difficult state like Kaduna where religion and ethnicity is sensitive.buhari lost in Kaduna 2003,2007,narrowly won in 2011.gej got 25% in 2015..if it was chanji,why did inuwa not win gombe in 2015? Why did dankwambo win him considering that buhari has neverblost in gombe,he wins there heavily.el rufai even trued mm ticket and even won in 2019 even when ashiru is from kad north? El rufai may be controversial but a large number of Muslims in Kaduna love him.his greatest challenge is hunkuyi who is out of pdp.
There is no indication that pdp will win north save that atiku is from the north.unfortunately,kwankwaso is from the north too and appeals more to northern Muslims.atiku is not very popular compared to buhari and pdp cannot boast of the machinery of apc up north.you yourself said apc machinery can make tinubu win.we are in a changing and dynamic society where sentiments is waning and party loyalty is shaky.the north might just vote along the 1993 pattern.if atiku wins the north,it will be very unconvincing and States like borno,yobe,zamfara and maybe katsina which is close to 2 million will upturn the lead.the ordinary voters in benue,plateau want obi not atiku.just like you accepted the loss of se/ss,you will accept this one eventually.

Apc success in se/ss is primarily down to popularity of their candidates.in delta central,omo agege is the most pooular.in abia north,it is ouk,in abi/yakutt,it is hon Alex egbona,in orlu,it is rochas,in okigwe,it is araraume,in obubra,it is egbe jabengo,in boki it is chief mature.in ikot ekpene,it is akpabio,in bayelsa east,it is timipre and degi.in bayelsa central,Lyon.in ebonyi south,it is umahi.in edo north,it is oshio baba.rigging is just an addition to counter pdp.dokubo was originally a pdp thug who just started supporting tinubu.since you say most thugs in ss are in apc,you ate accepting that it will be difficult for atiku to win tinubu.pdp is set to finish third

garfield1:


Talba performed better than lolo but like lollo,he isn't grsrooted.apc is more rooted in niger.bago is a nupe,he can represent anywhere he likes within nupe land or Niger.in cross rivet,hon essien ayi the most popular pdp politician is from odukpani but represent a different constituency within same senate zone.hon Chris agara plays his politics in two lgas in central cross river.hon Jude ogbeche representing ogoja yala is from ogoja but claims yala.senator gershom bassey is from odukpani but plays his politics in calabar.the popular yayi is representing lagos central but is set to extend his grip to Ogun.tinubu nko? Aregbesola nko? As usual,you have no point.you enjoy whining in frivolities.

What evidence do you have that el rufai took a backstage? Must he make noise in the media? He is a member of the campaign council,his son is on the ballot and uba is his stooge he cannot stay away.being on a quiet mood doesnt mean anything.a lot of govs osuooorting tinubu are on the low key after a campaign is just starting.apart from the sai chanji,el rufai is politically strong and rooted.it was not just buhari that brought him to power.he crushed yero a godson of makarfi and sambo with an unprecedented margin in a difficult state like Kaduna where religion and ethnicity is sensitive.buhari lost in Kaduna 2003,2007,narrowly won in 2011.gej got 25% in 2015..if it was chanji,why did inuwa not win gombe in 2015? Why did dankwambo win him considering that buhari has neverblost in gombe,he wins there heavily.el rufai even trued mm ticket and even won in 2019 even when ashiru is from kad north? El rufai may be controversial but a large number of Muslims in Kaduna love him.his greatest challenge is hunkuyi who is out of pdp.
There is no indication that pdp will win north save that atiku is from the north.unfortunately,kwankwaso is from the north too and appeals more to northern Muslims.atiku is not very popular compared to buhari and pdp cannot boast of the machinery of apc up north.you yourself said apc machinery can make tinubu win.we are in a changing and dynamic society where sentiments is waning and party loyalty is shaky.the north might just vote along the 1993 pattern.if atiku wins the north,it will be very unconvincing and States like borno,yobe,zamfara and maybe katsina which is close to 2 million will upturn the lead.the ordinary voters in benue,plateau want obi not atiku.just like you accepted the loss of se/ss,you will accept this one eventually.

Apc success in se/ss is primarily down to popularity of their candidates.in delta central,omo agege is the most pooular.in abia north,it is ouk,in abi/yakutt,it is hon Alex egbona,in orlu,it is rochas,in okigwe,it is araraume,in obubra,it is egbe jabengo,in boki it is chief mature.in ikot ekpene,it is akpabio,in bayelsa east,it is timipre and degi.in bayelsa central,Lyon.in ebonyi south,it is umahi.in edo north,it is oshio baba.rigging is just an addition to counter pdp.dokubo was originally a pdp thug who just started supporting tinubu.since you say most thugs in ss are in apc,you ate accepting that it will be difficult for atiku to win tinubu.pdp is set to finish third

This boy
You always expose your political naivety with your very poor understanding of events and issues.
Is Minna that Bago is representing in the House part of Nupe land? Are Minna and Bida the same senatorial zone? If Bago is popular, why didn't he run against Lolo since you say he can represent any part of Niger? Why is he claiming Niger South now to run for gov just because he now has backing of a general who wants to "teach Lolo a lesson"?
Stop saying Talba is not a grassroots guy. It shows you know nothing about Niger. Of all the govs since 1999, he remains the most popular whether in office or out of office. He's totally incomparable with Lolo.
I don't know much about you CR politicians but the moment you mentioned yayi and Aregbe, I just Lol. Has Aregbe ever won any election outside of his godfather, Tinubu? If Tinubu says yayi should not pick the ticket for 2023, will he dare to? And you're counting them as politicians who are popular in their own right. Tinubu's base is Lagos. It is from Lagos he spread to other parts of SW and Nigeria in general. So I don't know why you're bringing Tinubu into the mix as if he doesn't have a base.
If El-Rufai is popular, why didn't he run for election in 2007 and 2011? He said it himself that he wasn't thinking of running for guber until Buhari told him to. That's the man you're claiming is popular and grounded in Kd politics. At least he was in PDP in 2007. Why didn't he contest for guber then? You knows nothing boy. El-Rufai benefited from Chanji which is why he has been playing religious and ethnic politics since he assumed office in Kd. It's a plot to boost his popularity and it has not worked.
There is every indication PDP will win North. You heard what Gumi said. And Mahdi too in a mosque recently. The religious bloc in there North that were solidly behind Buhari are shifting to Atiku and not Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso will affect Tinubu because Kano and Jigawa where he has the biggest influence used to give Buhari bloc votes. I never said APC machinery will make Tinubu win. What I said is he is relying on the machinery delivering heavily for him to win. APC machinery which you're talking about is on shaky ground because as the elections draw near, the notherners will begin to shift more towards Atiku moreso as they see the South is divided. A divided South is always a prey for the North.
The North will not vote along 1993 pattern because then, Tofa did not even have the resources and party machinery that Atiku has. So to think Atiku will run a tame campaign like that of Tofa is a huge joke.
Where asari just joined or not, it is obvious all the thugs are now in APC. Omo agege stole the Senate Mace. Okorocha is well known to have his thugs same with ararume. Even Umahi after joining created a thuggish outfit called ebube agu. Oshiomole has come to rely a lot on Kabaka in Edo.
Las Las, PDP will win North and SS and take home the victory. The statistics and dynamics of 23 elections favour PDP. If they win just four states out of six in the SS and even just one in SE, with whatever they get in the North, they're are back at the centre and APC will become a SW party