seunlayi:
It's the unusual way this time -from pdp to APC. I knew money must be involved. No Nigerian with conscience will decamp to APC at this time. It's either to pdp or labour

Keep lying to yourself

ANOTHER TREND TO MAKE OBIDENSE CRY AND WAIL.


NO RELEVANT POLITICIAN WANT TO DEFECT TO A LOOSER PARTY.

Cc agboriotejoye, kyase,trinitycian,satanically

garfield1:
Cc agboriotejoye, kyase,trinitycian,satanically

You didn't see the 145,000 APC members that decamped to PDP? the one the mods refused to move to fp?

And the over 2k that decamped to pdp from apc in Sokoto? Which the mods refused to put to fp?

Trinitycian:


You didn't see the 145,000 APC members that decamped to PDP? the one the mods refused to move to fp?

And the over 2k that decamped to pdp from apc in Sokoto? Which the mods refused to put to fp?

That 145,000 are a combination of all parties not just apc.I was telling you guys that dankwambo is useless in gombe.theres nothing he can do.do not follow politicians by their words but by their body language... Sokoto own is a waste,before the end of the week,there will be a counter defection

garfield1:


That 145,000 are a combination of all parties not just apc.I was telling you guys that dankwambo is useless in gombe.theres nothing he can do.do not follow politicians by their words but by their body language... Sokoto own is a waste,before the end of the week,there will be a counter defection

How many members do NNPP and LP have? APC Decampees should be at least 120k

2k also defected in Sokoto. Still not on fp.

Also note that even those in APC will still vote Atiku.

garfield1:
Cc agboriotejoye, kyase,trinitycian,satanically

Be calming down

Trinitycian:


How many members do NNPP and LP have? APC Decampees should be at least 120k

2k also defected in Sokoto. Still not on fp.

Also note that even those in APC will still vote Atiku.

The report said apc and other parties so you can never tell.nnpp and prp have thousands of members in bauchi.again,those 145,000 is not fresh defections but all that have defected since this year.atiku and the party are officially receiving them...
Also note that many in pdp will vote tinubu and obi

garfield1:


The report said apc and other parties so you can never tell.nnpp and prp have thousands of members in bauchi.again,those 145,000 is not fresh defections but all that have defected since this year.atiku and the party are officially receiving them...
Also note that many in pdp will vote tinubu and obi

Dude, they are fresh defections. They registered 2 days ago. Lol. Go and read the threads.

Trinitycian:


Dude, they are fresh defections. They registered 2 days ago. Lol. Go and read the threads.

Boy,they are not fresh defections. They are all that have joined pdp since January.registering two days ago means nothing.see,you don't know how party politics work.I am a core politician so leave this line.you are just good at posting news of defections so focus on that

garfield1:


Boy,they are not fresh defections. They are all that have joined pdp since January.registering two days ago means nothing.see,you don't know how party politics work.I am a core politician so leave this line.you are just good at posting news of defections so focus on that

Dude, just few weren't fresh decampees, like the speaker and the former deputy governor. Otherwise, majority are fresh decampees. It's necessary for all defectors to receive Atiku. I followed the event live.

Trinitycian:


Dude, just few weren't fresh decampees, like the speaker and the former deputy governor. Otherwise, majority are fresh decampees. It's necessary for all defectors to receive Atiku. I followed the event live.

Oga,they are not fresh decampees.the speaker defected in April,katagum and mustapha defected in early august and most of those defectors are their followers.you see,they are not fresh.

garfield1:


Oga,they are not fresh decampees.the speaker defected in April,katagum and mustapha defected in early august and most of those defectors are their followers.you see,they are not fresh.

I already said it, few aren't fresh. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't join the fresh defectors to welcome Atiku.

Also, not their supporters but REGISTERED APC MEMBERS. Supporters can be registered or not. In fact, most Supporters are usually not registered. The 140k who defected ARE REGISTERED MEMBERS. They are politicians - mainstream, local politicians. If you add their Supporters, majority of whom are not registered, we should be talking of 700k and above.

Trinitycian:


I already said it, few aren't fresh. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't join the fresh defectors to welcome Atiku.

Also, not their supporters but REGISTERED APC MEMBERS. Supporters can be registered or not. In fact, most Supporters are usually not registered. The 140k who defected ARE REGISTERED MEMBERS. They are politicians - mainstream, local politicians. If you add their Supporters, majority of whom are not registered, we should be talking of 700k and above.

Boy,why is it that atiku is welcoming people that defected since April to pdp? They are not welcoming atiku but atiku is welcoming them to pdp officially and not just atiku but the party.it means that majority are not fresh defectors.you dont have any evidence that they are fresh defectors so leave it like that.

garfield1:


Boy,why is it that atiku is welcoming people that defected since April to pdp? They are not welcoming atiku but atiku is welcoming them to pdp officially and not just atiku but the party.it means that majority are not fresh defectors.you dont have any evidence that they are fresh defectors so leave it like that.

Dude, you're diverting as you no get point.

I have proven that those people CANNOT be mere supporters. They are REGISTERED MEMBERS. They are politicians.

As to why Atiku welcomed them, Atiku is a people-centric leader. No pride. No arrogance. Humbling himself to go welcome his precious supporters is one of the traits of a good leader

Trinitycian:


Dude, you're diverting as you no get point.

I have proven that those people CANNOT be mere supporters. They are REGISTERED MEMBERS. They are politicians.

As to why Atiku welcomed them, Atiku is a people-centric leader. No pride. No arrogance. Humbling himself to go welcome his precious supporters is one of the traits of a good leader

Oga,you are the one that is pointless,admit it.atiku and pdp are in bauchi to welcome old and new defectors from January till now.period.for you to even claim that atiku will get 90% in sokoto shows you dont know you are doing.better find something and do

garfield1:


Oga,you are the one that is pointless,admit it.atiku and pdp are in bauchi to welcome old and new defectors from January till now.period.for you to even claim that atiku will get 90% in sokoto shows you dont know you are doing.better find something and do

Simply what I have been saying. Both old and new. All politicians and registered members of APC, and not just supporters, like you claimed.

Very few of the defectors are old. The rest are fresh. Both came to welcome Atiku or Atiku came to welcome both, which ever semantic you prefer.

As for Tinubu, if he sees 10% in Sokoto, he should be declared winner of the election. I am currently in the NW, and Tinubu is unpopular. In Kaduna, I haven't seen 1 person supporting him since I visited. I created threads about it.

garfield1:
Cc agboriotejoye, kyase,trinitycian,satanically

So Tinubu will get four votes in Gombe.
How's that something to celebrate?

Agboriotejoye:

So Tinubu will get four votes in Gombe.
How's that something to celebrate?

As atiku will win sokoto,tinubu will take gombe

garfield1:


As atiku will win sokoto,tinubu will take gombe

Tinubu cannot win Gombe. Did you see the mammoth crowd that welcomed Atiku recently in Gombe? Tinubu went there and he couldn't even pull half of that crowd even with a sitting gov and a visit to the emir's palace

Agboriotejoye:


Tinubu cannot win Gombe. Did you see the mammoth crowd that welcomed Atiku recently in Gombe? Tinubu went there and he couldn't even pull half of that crowd even with a sitting gov and a visit to the emir's palace

Crowd that I can organize with 5 million? That means since obi is pulling crowd all over the nation,he will win

Toluwanise247:

You are senseless if you want to go against politicians go against them obi have been moving from one party to another, lp is the his third political party. What make him different from those thief. Atiku vp in 2019 when he knew he can’t retain the vp slot he move to lp what make him different. Senseless soul.

Later Una go talk say Obi dey lie. Who tell you say Obi no for get VP slot for PDP? Use your sense, is okowa that was picked a quarter of the man Obi is? At times tribalism to dey blind us to recognize simple facts like the sacrifice Obi made to fight for the turn of another section of the country. You don't have to support him but at least respect his courageous acts.

garfield1:


Crowd that I can organize with 5 million? That means since obi is pulling crowd all over the nation,he will win

We're still saying the same thing na. If it is by rally, Obi has won. PDP do not need to organize rallies because their candidate is gathering crowds everywhere he goes especially the north.

So, it is foolhardy to claim only Tinubu and Obi are certain to win because of rallies. My estimation as I told you gives Atiku an advantage. The advantage is that he is poised to win the North and like APC of 2015, his party has a foothold in the South. Tinubu cannot win the South certainly. He is not the frontrunner to win the North except the APC machinery delivers heavily for him. Obi at least based on street and internet popularity is poised to win the south. But he is going to perform very poorly in the North. So the party with the largest spread for this election is PDP and that is why they may clinch it because Nigeria is now divided into three political strongholds reminiscent of 1960, 1979. The northern group won on both occasions.

Agboriotejoye:

We're still saying the same thing na. If it is by rally, Obi has won. PDP do not need to organize rallies because their candidate is gathering crowds everywhere he goes especially the north.

So, it is foolhardy to claim only Tinubu and Obi are certain to win because of rallies. My estimation as I told you gives Atiku an advantage. The advantage is that he is poised to win the North and like APC of 2015, his party has a foothold in the South. Tinubu cannot win the South certainly. He is not the frontrunner to win the North except the APC machinery delivers heavily for him. Obi at least based on street and internet popularity is poised to win the south. But he is going to perform very poorly in the North. So the party with the largest spread for this election is PDP and that is why they may clinch it because Nigeria is now divided into three political strongholds reminiscent of 1960, 1979. The northern group won on both occasions.

You are reechoing what I have been drumming for you.atiku can win the north but not like buhari.he can win the north and still lose depending on tinubu and obi performance.you have conceded that if the apc machinery delivers,tinubu will certainly win the north and this is set to happen so it is advantage tinubu...

What happened in 1979 cannot be replicated again.awolowo and azikiwe were just strong in their home bases and not outside.they were almost non existent in the north except in gongola..awolowo chose his vp from the east and ignored the north.but he trird.,lost narrowly.had he put more efforts up north, he would have won.this is what abiola corrected and Tinubu is doing.unlike awo,tinubu party dominates the north..obi party is set to di well in the nc.
The northern elites in 1979 were with shagari.they virtually made him president.are they with atiku? No.it favours tinubu more

garfield1:


You are reechoing what I have been drumming for you.atiku can win the north but not like buhari.he can win the north and still lose depending on tinubu and obi performance.you have conceded that if the apc machinery delivers,tinubu will certainly win the north and this is set to happen so it is advantage tinubu...

What happened in 1979 cannot be replicated again.awolowo and azikiwe were just strong in their home bases and not outside.they were almost non existent in the north except in gongola..awolowo chose his vp from the east and ignored the north.but he trird.,lost narrowly.had he put more efforts up north, he would have won.this is what abiola corrected and Tinubu is doing.unlike awo,tinubu party dominates the north..obi party is set to di well in the nc.
The northern elites in 1979 were with shagari.they virtually made him president.are they with atiku? No.it favours tinubu more

Atiku winning the north is a massive victory for him if we go by the 2019 results. Buhari won the North by over 6m votes in 2019. If Atiku wins by just 1million, that is a massive reversal of 7m for APC in the north alone which they have to meet up with from the SW. The PDP will surely get some good votes from SS/SE even if they don't win overall which is a worst case scenario.

The possibility of the APC machinery delivering the north is very mute. But it is possible. Nothing is impossible. If they do, then Tinubu is surely President. Nothing else can stop him. But if they lose, which my money is on that they will, then Tinubu has a mountain to climb because of the deficit generated compared to 2019.

Agboriotejoye:

Atiku winning the north is a massive victory for him if we go by the 2019 results. Buhari won the North by over 6m votes in 2019. If Atiku wins by just 1million, that is a massive reversal of 7m for APC in the north alone which they have to meet up with from the SW. The PDP will surely get some good votes from SS/SE even if they don't win overall which is a worst case scenario.

The possibility of the APC machinery delivering the north is very mute. But it is possible. Nothing is impossible. If they do, then Tinubu is surely President. Nothing else can stop him. But if they lose, which my money is on that they will, then Tinubu has a mountain to climb because of the deficit generated compared to 2019.

If atiku wins the north by 1 million and loses the sw by over a million,he loses.mind you,it is ne/nw because he will certainly lose in nc.the margin of victory over tinubu in ss/se will be insignificant as obi is overrunning the region.
The apc machinery will always deliver.it has been activated already.the only state atiku has gained more defections than apc(since you measure strength by defections) are Kaduna,bauchi and Adamawa.in 2019,the apc machinery overrun a united pdp.now that pdp is divided,it is a foregone alternative.even if they are united,atiku and pdp just doesnt have the resources to counter

garfield1:


If atiku wins the north by 1 million and loses the sw by over a million,he loses.mind you,it is ne/nw because he will certainly lose in nc.the margin of victory over tinubu in ss/se will be insignificant as obi is overrunning the region.
The apc machinery will always deliver.it has been activated already.the only state atiku has gained more defections than apc(since you measure strength by defections) are Kaduna,bauchi and Adamawa.in 2019,the apc machinery overrun a united pdp.now that pdp is divided,it is a foregone alternative.even if they are united,atiku and pdp just doesnt have the resources to counter

U never factored in a scenario of sabotage.
PDP 2014/15 comes to mind.
You see if Tinubu wins the north,He wins it's that simple.
Anything short of that spells a big humiliation.
You know one thing I will like about Tinubu winning is that some northern politicians wings will be clipped ( You know who I have in mind)
PDP on the other hand are playing a big gamble : Concentrating on the north and taking the south for granted.
Rivers, Oyo is slipping away...
If at all we can get Makinde, I'll be happy.

garfield1:


If atiku wins the north by 1 million and loses the sw by over a million,he loses.mind you,it is ne/nw because he will certainly lose in nc.the margin of victory over tinubu in ss/se will be insignificant as obi is overrunning the region.
The apc machinery will always deliver.it has been activated already.the only state atiku has gained more defections than apc(since you measure strength by defections) are Kaduna,bauchi and Adamawa.in 2019,the apc machinery overrun a united pdp.now that pdp is divided,it is a foregone alternative.even if they are united,atiku and pdp just doesnt have the resources to counter

How? What is the voting strength of the SW compared to North? Besides, Atiku still has hope in two southern regions while Tinubu has only the SW. If Atiku loses SW by 1million, it's a massive victory for him as he can easily make up that number in SS/SE which gives him victory.
Why are you removing NC? Buhari used to lose NC but still win North overall. Besides, NC is an uphill task for Tinubu with his Muslim Muslim ticket. Even if he wins NC, he can't win convincingly. Obi will do well no doubt. But he can't win both SS/SE in my estimation. Anything that makes him win both, we have a run off automatically. In a three horse race, you need three regions to win. If we call NW/NE for Atiku, NC/SW for Tinubu and SW/SS for Obi then it's a run off we're looking at.
APC machinery can't deliver North. Buhari the moving factor is out of the equation while the govs are generally clueless
APC has lost the defection battle already. Go and count the defection threads.

Minatouchiha:
Na dem. This is what they've turn the country to. When they don't get what they want, they defect. It's like changing women or a job for them. And some people tied in local slavery, with no innovative ideas will give their lives up for these old guys. Young vibrant men, supporting these men with brain dead cells. You know why? Because their brain is dead as well.

who asked you all this stories when you know that politic is not the work for heaven but for this Earth and the reword for hard working on Earth is to get the benefit to make life sweet .Do you now want them to remain where they don't get reword for you to know they are brain alive? Do you want everybody to be like IPOB /Obis supporters who gains nothing in the work of live than just to satisfying their hatred and bitterness emotional feelings? You can't expect everybody to become those that are contributing for Terror who offered them nothing but destruction and unrest for their fathers land. Oga you can only have a say which can never becomes a recommendation for another man's lives . You can only proof brain alive only on your own Wishes which may be Brain dead for another man's reasoning .

Agboriotejoye:

How? What is the voting strength of the SW compared to North? Besides, Atiku still has hope in two southern regions while Tinubu has only the SW. If Atiku loses SW by 1million, it's a massive victory for him as he can easily make up that number in SS/SE which gives him victory.
Why are you removing NC? Buhari used to lose NC but still win North overall. Besides, NC is an uphill task for Tinubu with his Muslim Muslim ticket. Even if he wins NC, he can't win convincingly. Obi will do well no doubt. But he can't win both SS/SE in my estimation. Anything that makes him win both, we have a run off automatically. In a three horse race, you need three regions to win. If we call NW/NE for Atiku, NC/SW for Tinubu and SW/SS for Obi then it's a run off we're looking at.
APC machinery can't deliver North. Buhari the moving factor is out of the equation while the govs are generally clueless
APC has lost the defection battle already. Go and count the defection threads.

Sw has the 2nd highest voting strength after nw.since 2011,the turnout from the north has been dropping and it will still drop next year.in 1979,1983,1993,sw had more turnout than ne/nw...in any case,it is not the turnout but margin of victory that matters.awo margin of victory in 1979 almost gave him victory.abiola margin in 1993 in sw was the foundation to his victory.
With obi taking chunk votes in ss/se,gap between atiku and Tinubu will be narrow and insignificant.atiku only hope in south is ss and it is evaporating daily..
Apc lost the defection battle in 2019.pdp has lost the defection battle in the south.moreover,what matters is quality of defections not quantity.majority of the voters are those that are not party affiliated so it will never matter.machinery is not just Buhari or govs,it goes beyond that. buhari or govs do not carry out rigging personally,their lieutenants carry it out.govs have played key roles in elections and will still play next year even if it will be lesser...even if you loom at both tinubu and atiku person structure,tinubu has more resources and foot soldiers to crush atiku who is dependent on ethnic sentiments.
If the three candidates win 2 regions each,it will now be down to who has the highest votes and who has the constitution spread.the latter will be a big problem for atiku.no one can win nc convincingly as it stands but atiku has the least chance of winning there.even atiku and Tinubu cannot win the core north convincingly.while atiku needs a convincing win,a narrow loss is enough for tinubu...

Aiel123:

U never factored in a scenario of sabotage.
PDP 2014/15 comes to mind.
You see if Tinubu wins the north,He wins it's that simple.
Anything short of that spells a big humiliation.
You know one thing I will like about Tinubu winning is that some northern politicians wings will be clipped ( You know who I have in mind)
PDP on the other hand are playing a big gamble : Concentrating on the north and taking the south for granted.
Rivers, Oyo is slipping away...
If at all we can get Makinde, I'll be happy.

I factored in sabotage.atiku is more likely to be sabotaged than tinubu.a lot of southern pdp members have already started just like it happened to gej in 2015 up north.apart from el rufai,yahaya,badaru abubakar,I dont see any Northerner sabotaging tinubu.
Tinubu doesnt necessarily need a win up north.a narrow lose is ok as far as its narrow and he wins sw convincingly while staying close in ss/se.atiku needs to win the north massively and compete well in the south.he can't afford to concede any grounds while tinubu can.

Oyo is not slipping away,it was never for atiku.atiku and obi cannot win anywhere in yorubaland whether makinde is with him or not.rivers looks obidient as it stands.even if atiku wins rivers,it will be narrow...
I dont know who you have in mind in terms of clipping the north.

garfield1:


I factored in sabotage.atiku is more likely to be sabotaged than tinubu.a lot of southern pdp members have already started just like it happened to gej in 2015 up north.apart from el rufai,yahaya,badaru abubakar,I dont see any Northerner sabotaging tinubu.
Tinubu doesnt necessarily need a win up north.a narrow lose is ok as far as its narrow and he wins sw convincingly while staying close in ss/se.atiku needs to win the north massively and compete well in the south.he can't afford to concede any grounds while tinubu can.

Oyo is not slipping away,it was never for atiku.atiku and obi cannot win anywhere in yorubaland whether makinde is with him or not.rivers looks obidient as it stands.even if atiku wins rivers,it will be narrow...
I dont know who you have in mind in terms of clipping the north.

Atiku winning north means a straight victory.
Whatever Tinubu polls in SW will be neutralized by the combo of SE/SS .
On Oyo,I meant the traditional 25%, I'll be crazy to think Atiku will win Oyo.
Atiku winning Rivers is a tall order if his beef with Wike is not resolved.
You see northern APC governors are observing Tinubu body language for now to know whether he's worth their support. The governor's recently passed a vote of confidence on Adamu( You know Tinubu feud with Adamu on the composition of the PCC )
Masari, Abdulrazaq has been the vocal ones in Tinubu camp for now.
The northerners I meant where those in Buhari inner caucuses ( Aso cabals)