This is not wishful permutations but based on facts. Official INEC data is the basis for this thesis.

1. In 2019, the registered number of eligible voters was 84million but in 2022, we 92.4million, an increase 8 million new voters. Official records reveal that a large chunk of this registration(including de registered voters due to error(s) in their application) occurred in the South. A breakdown of the effects of these registrations in the election amongst the top candidates.

Combined voters from the North East and

North West= 36.77million.
Votes divided by 3 main candidates( Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu)= 12.256million votes per candidate.


South West = 18.3million voters
Divide by Atiku and Tinubu
=9.15million votes per candidate

South South and South East (Bloc votes)
Just one candidate(Obi)
Total votes = 26.6 million voters

North Central = 14.1 million voters
Divided by Atiku, Tinubu and Obi
= 4.7million votes per candidate

Estimated total number of votes per candidate
APC= 26.7million
PDP= 26.7million
LP=30.7 million.



Of course, not everyone will vote. And, it's common knowledge that regional votes do not fulfill the needed 25% win rate required by electoral laws, but this gives political strategists an idea of what to expect in the coming elections. To make this permutations a reality, Obi needs certain factors to stay in his favor.

1. Kwankwaso MUST compete till the end of this election. He is taking votes from apc and PDP in the Northern States where Obi has no chance of getting a decent amount of votes though he won't make a reasonable inroad into the South.

2. Obi must focus on winning States outside his own turf (South South and South East). Added efforts must be included in States where he has significant presence- Lagos, Nassawara, Plateau, Benue and Taraba. He needs to concentrate on winning the States that make up the Middle Belt, thereby spreading his votes.

3. Obviously, not all new/first time voters are voting for Obi but records reveal that he, along other celebrities and social media influencers supporters made significant contribution to creating awareness for new voter's registration. Expect many of these new voters to vote the candidate who motivated them to do the needful.

4. Lastly, The negligence of the APC led FG on key issues affecting Nigerians (ASUU strike, high exchange rates plus inflation, religious non-representation) have led to main APC and PDP supporters, campaigning openly or discreetly for Obi. And if this situation continues unabated, Obi will continue to get the needed support before the elections.

My opinion though,


Mynd44

I want to use this opportunity to congratulate France for winning 1998 World Cup...
I was not privelegded to watch the match then because I was staying with one of my Aunties, and she no like football at all.

Also I never sabi how to use phone that time

Congrats to France once again e no easy to win World Cup

To my fellow punters out there, see the reigning tips to cashout with weekly


Haaland to Score 1.5 goals
Ronaldo to hit posts/crossbars
Darwin Nunez no score
Tottenham VS any club over 1.5 bookings

Total 2+ Odds you hit it 50k, I don give una update way APC or PDP no fit give una

He will.

pleasureosondu:
This is not wishful permutations but based on facts. Official INEC data is the basis for this thesis.

1. In 2019, the registered number of eligible voters was 84million but in 2022, we 92.4million, an increase 8 million new voters. Official records reveal that a large chunk of this registration(including de registered voters due to error(s) in their application) occurred in the South. A breakdown of the effects of these registrations in the election.

Combined voters from the North East and North West= 36.77million.
Votes divided by 3 main candidates( Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu)= 12.256million votes per candidate.


South West = 18.3million voters
Divide by Atiku and Tinubu
=9.15million votes per candidate

South South and South East( Bloc votes)
Just one candidate(Obi)
Total votes = 26.6 million voters

North Central = 14.1 million voters
Divided by Atiku, Tinubu and Obi
= 4.7million votes per candidate

Estimated total number of votes per candidate
APC= 26.7million
PDP= 26.7million
LP=30.7 million.

However, it's common knowledge that regional votes do not fulfill the needed 25% win rate required by electoral laws, thus Obi needs certain factors to stay in his favor.

1. Kwankwaso MUST compete till the end of this election. He is taking votes from apc and PDP in the Northern States where Obi has no chance of getting a decent amount of votes but can't make a reasonable inroad into the South.

2. Obi must focus on winning States outside his own turf (South South and South East). Added efforts must be included in States where he has significant presence- Lagos, Nassawara, Plateau, Benue and Taraba. He needs to concentrate on winning the States that make up the Middle Belt.

3. Obviously, not all new/first time voters are voting for Obi but records reveal that he, along other celebrities and social media influencers supporters made significant contribution to creating awareness for new voter's registration. Expect many of these new voters to vote the candidate who motivated them to do the needful.

4. Lastly, The negligence of the APC led FG on key issues affecting Nigerians (ASUU strike, high exchange rates plus inflation, religious non-representation) have led to main APC and PDP supporters, campaigning openly or discreetly for Obi. And if this situation continues unabated, Obi will continue to get the needed support.


Mynd44

This is obviously wishful permutation.
Mark it, obi will not get up to 5 million votes in total.

BabaO2:

This is obviously wishful permutation.
Mark it, obi will not get up to 5 million votes in total.

. I stated mine with facts, data obtained from INEC. Again, it just October. Expected that 5million voters to increase before february but can you say same for the APC?

Ur analysis is so brilliant pls keep it up.

Will unknown gunmen allow you guys to vote?
Lol, this election is just Atiku’s election to lose. Forget what you are seeing online, on the Election Day, you will see it yourself. It is not about making noise online, it is about structure on ground.

pleasureosondu:
This is not wishful permutations but based on facts. Official INEC data is the basis for this thesis.

1. In 2019, the registered number of eligible voters was 84million but in 2022, we 92.4million, an increase 8 million new voters. Official records reveal that a large chunk of this registration(including de registered voters due to error(s) in their application) occurred in the South. A breakdown of the effects of these registrations in the election amongst the top candidates.

Combined voters from the North East and

North West= 36.77million.
Votes divided by 3 main candidates( Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu)= 12.256million votes per candidate.


South West = 18.3million voters
Divide by Atiku and Tinubu
=9.15million votes per candidate

South South and South East (Bloc votes)
Just one candidate(Obi)
Total votes = 26.6 million voters

North Central = 14.1 million voters
Divided by Atiku, Tinubu and Obi
= 4.7million votes per candidate

Estimated total number of votes per candidate
APC= 26.7million
PDP= 26.7million
LP=30.7 million.



Of course, not everyone will vote. And, it's common knowledge that regional votes do not fulfill the needed 25% win rate required by electoral laws, but this gives political strategists an idea of what to expect in the coming elections. To make this permutations a reality, Obi needs certain factors to stay in his favor.

1. Kwankwaso MUST compete till the end of this election. He is taking votes from apc and PDP in the Northern States where Obi has no chance of getting a decent amount of votes though he won't make a reasonable inroad into the South.

2. Obi must focus on winning States outside his own turf (South South and South East). Added efforts must be included in States where he has significant presence- Lagos, Nassawara, Plateau, Benue and Taraba. He needs to concentrate on winning the States that make up the Middle Belt, thereby spreading his votes.

3. Obviously, not all new/first time voters are voting for Obi but records reveal that he, along other celebrities and social media influencers supporters made significant contribution to creating awareness for new voter's registration. Expect many of these new voters to vote the candidate who motivated them to do the needful.

4. Lastly, The negligence of the APC led FG on key issues affecting Nigerians (ASUU strike, high exchange rates plus inflation, religious non-representation) have led to main APC and PDP supporters, campaigning openly or discreetly for Obi. And if this situation continues unabated, Obi will continue to get the needed support before the elections.

My opinion though,


Mynd44

so in your warped mindset obi will win all south east n south south state even with no elective office holder
Now I am beginning to believe many of u are first time voters who doesn’t know how an election process works

BATified2023:
so in your warped mindset obi will win all south east n south south state even with no elective office holder
Now I am beginning to believe many of u are first time voters who doesn’t know how an election process works

Asiwaju swine

BATified2023:
so in your warped mindset obi will win all south east n south south state even with no elective office holder
Now I am beginning to believe many of u are first time voters who doesn’t know how an election process works

Did Buhari win in 2015 solely with elected office holder(s)? In 2019, Obiano (an elected official) supported Buhari to spite Obi, who won his state? You need to understand that having an elected principal(s) as supporters doesn't necessarily guarantee victory. There are certain factors involved. Moreover,An incumbent elected official can be voted out despite his "structure". The Osun elections is still fresh in the minds of Nigerians.

In addition, voting patterns differ depending on the position at sake. For example, APGA usually wins the governorship elections in Anambra State but it's House of Rep is dominated by PDP. It's the same situation in Edo State. Both states voted for PDP despite being an APGA and APC controlled state in 2019. Expect the same scenario in 2023 but this time, they prefer Obi at the presidential polls