Ylink4sure:
We have been saying this for Months that Obi will not only come a distant third in the election but that his participation and his performance in the election is the reason Tinubu is the next president.

All Peter Obi will achieve is doom Atiku's chances by taking the votes that have since 1999 gone to PDP. Ask those that label themselves Obidients who they voted for in 2015 and 2019 ,you will realise they voted for PDP! And despite this Buhari still won! There votes is inconsequential. Fitch reiterated the fact that just 36% of Nigerians are online!

So, Tinubu doesn't need these votes and thankfully the votes will now be split between Atiku and Obi,with Obi being very weak in the North and Atiku weakened in the South by Obi, Tinubu will win with his more 'balanced' performance.A vote for Obi is not only a waste it's actually a vote for Tinubu!

Fitch has also speculated that violence will ensue after the election! I have been echoing this! The Obidient will claim that were rigged out rather than unemotionally reasoning the facts we have been tabling before them.



Read the report below:

Fitch, the global rating company has tipped Bola Tinubu, presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress to win the 2023 election.


The statement said “comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources”.

“At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election. Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.


“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress; APC) and Atiku Abubakar (People’s Democratic Party; PDP) were mostly based on responses gathered online. Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.

“Even if these surveys were accurate at a national level, Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority North would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election. Indeed, the North is home to the majority of all voters and turnout in this part of the country tends to be relatively high, underscoring the importance of the Northern electorate.

“According to Nigeria's 1999 constitution, a candidate can only be elected if they both receive the majority of overall votes and over 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of the country's 36 states. Given that Obi’s Labour Party has limited infrastructure in the North, he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement.

“Indeed, the Labour Party is not even running candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives in many northern constituencies. Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South (Anambra State), increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.”

Fitch added that Peter Obi is unlikely to win the presidential election.

It said, “While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.
“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South West and North Central states, while retaining large majorities in the South South and South East.

“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the South South and South East – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country.

“Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.

“Protests and social discontent are likely to increase in the aftermath of a Tinubu win. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.

https://leadership.ng/2023-fitch-solutions-projects-tinubus-victory-despite-obis-exaggerated-popularity/

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/10/2023-survey-reveals-tinubull-emerge-winner-but/