A new state in international relations

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has started a new era in international relations. The Northern European countries including Finland and Sweden preferred staying out of the NATO defense cooperation against the Soviet Union, and then Russia after the collapse of the Union. The last president of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev passed away in the last month, spent an effort to end the cold war between NATO and Russia, and he could manage it somehow. However, there has always been anger growing against him in Russia and blaming him to cause the collapse of the Soviet Union. After 30 years, this anger against the idea of ending the cold war has been transformed into a political power led by Vladimir Putin. Putin, claiming that NATO is threatening Russia by including Ukraine as a new NATO member, decided to invade the country. Consequently, the cold has resurrected nowadays. The Russian army has bombed almost all the Ukrainian cities, and a few hundred Ukrainians are losing their lives every day. The cold war resurrected is quite scary for the Western countries, and they have started assessing this new state of war in the world. Russia has already started implementing cold war policies including stopping sending natural gas to the EU countries.

A new era in the global economy

Putin is quite serious about continuing the cold war. If Russia can resist international pressure on the country, this situation will evaluate into a [url=https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/russia%E2%80%99s-invasion-ukraine-puts-global-economy-risk_en]new era[/url] in the global economy excluding Russia. That would cause a large loss for humanity because Russia and the states moving together with Russia including many Turkish republics, Belarus, and some other countries are natural-resources rich countries. At the same time, Russia and its supporters produce most of the grains produced in the world. The resurrected cold war means the loss of many opportunities for all of us. In another word, the increasing world population will have a relatively larger hunger risk and many other economic risks. The loss in international trade will be larger, and many businesses will be lost. The resurrected cold war means a large loss in global production capacity.

Turkiye: A potential winner or a potential loser in the new era of the global economy

Turkiye is located politically just between NATO and Russia. Turkiye is a NATO member while having strong relations with Russia and the Turkish republics supporting Russia. For instance, Erdogan attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, known as Shanghai five meetings held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and Erdogan seemed quite happy there having a conversation with Putin and other political leaders. On the other side, Turkiye has been selling the Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, even donating one for free. Before the NATO meetings held in Madrid, Turkiye declared that Sweden and Finland are protecting the criminals who were involved in terrorist activities in Turkiye while the bargaining between the parties ended up with an agreement. Turkiye lifted the veto decision on Finnish and Swedish NATO membership in return for certain terror and security guarantees. Turkiye purchased S400 air defense systems from Russia a few years ago, and Russia declared that Turkiye is to buy more S400 missiles which will not be appreciated by the NATO members and the US. Finally, Turkiye has been receiving a large number of financial resources hidden, and it is claimed that they are the wealth of the Russian rich. The political position of Turkiye between NATO and Russia is quite confusing. Even on the same day, it is possible to see a change in the political behavior of Turkiye regarding NATO and Russia.

This situation creates a high level of uncertainty for businesses in Turkey. Turkey needs to create a balance between NATO and Russia. Otherwise, this confusing uncertainty might create a large political loss in international relations for Turkiye which might be reflected in the Turkish economy. In 2023, Turkiye will have the general elections and the presidential election. The results of these elections seem to be one of the main determinants of the political position of Turkiye. The Western countries, instead of moving fast and placing sanctuary on Turkiye, are waiting for the results of the elections in the country, hoping that Turkiye will be back to the previous international policies and be a reliable member of NATO.

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