garfield1:


Not true.from 2007,nw turnout usually equals turnout in se/ss.I already told you that the research in ne was conducted in taraba,Adamawa and gombe where Christians are many.if you add borno,yobe and bauchi,tinubu will smash obi.tinubu win in ne/nw cancels out obi victory in se/ss.they share votes in nc and tinubu beats him in sw.game over

the best he can get from the north west is 2.5 million votes with oboi following keenly with 800k....
so how will this cancel the margin of 4 million in the south south.......

or 3 million in the south east....

in the west the margin of victory won't be up to 1.5million....

so the south south alone has cleared the two regions.....

with about 500k votes left....

In the north east the margin of victory wn't be up to 1.5 million if we are to go with this pool....

and the north central margin of victory won't be up to 200k....

do the maths and this is me being generous.....

now If we go with the pool obi wins n.c....

which is game over....
cus Kwara and the rest don't have the numbers....

is it clear to you now....

lets come back home..

we are expecting 8million votes from the north west....


kwankwanso gets 35% of that vote, obi get 10%...

we are left with 55% between atiku and tinubu....
so who do you think will come out top....

atiku get 30% and Tinubu get 20% is it clear now.....


let's come back a little....

the three kkk states which is the power of the north west....

Kano is in the bag for nnpp they should get atleast 60% of votes here.....

kastina they should get 45%

Kaduna... obi should get 25% here with the other three scrambling for the 75%>>>>

nnpp should top the chart with 30%
Atiku 25% and apc 20....

so I'm trying to work the numbers on your road to Victory and it's not working.....

PDP should get a grip in sokoto.....

so how is Apc going to win this north or get the 40%

so at best Apc is getting here is 2million votes

Donsheddy:


the best he can get from the north west is 2.5 million votes with oboi following keenly with 800k....
so how will this cancel the margin of 4 million in the south south.......

or 3 million in the south east....

in the west the margin of victory won't be up to 1.5million....

so the south south alone has cleared the two regions.....

with about 500k votes left....

In the north east the margin of victory wn't be up to 1.5 million if we are to go with this pool....

and the north central margin of victory won't be up to 200k....

do the maths and this is me being generous.....

now If we go with the pool obi wins n.c....

which is game over....
cus Kwara and the rest don't have the numbers....

is it clear to you now....

lets come back home..

we are expecting 8million votes from the north west....


kwankwanso gets 35% of that vote, obi get 10%...

we are left with 55% between atiku and tinubu....
so who do you think will come out top....

atiku get 30% and Tinubu get 20% is it clear now.....


let's come back a little....

the three kkk states which is the power of the north west....

Kano is in the bag for nnpp they should get atleast 60% of votes here.....

kastina they should get 45%

Kaduna... obi should get 25% here with the other three scrambling for the 75%>>>>

nnpp should top the chart with 30%
Atiku 25% and apc 20....

so I'm trying to work the numbers on your road to Victory and it's not working.....

PDP should get a grip in sokoto.....

so how is Apc going to win this north or get the 40%

so at best Apc is getting here is 2million votes

I already told you yesterday that tinubu I get 2 mil from nw,2 mil from ne...while obi gets 500k.in se obi wins se by 2 mil and ss by 500k-1 mil and tinubu wins sw by 2 mil.always remember that nw equals se ss.

garfield1:


I already told you yesterday that tinubu I get 2 mil from nw,2 mil from ne...while obi gets 500k.in se obi wins se by 2 mil and ss by 500k-1 mil and tinubu wins sw by 2 mil.always remember that nw equals se ss.

obi is winning s.e with nothing less than 3 million....
same with south south....

Why is this not on front page?

Donsheddy:


obi is winning s.e with nothing less than 3 million....
same with south south....

Obi will struggle in ss.he is not from here,okowa is on the ballot. His party is weak

garfield1:


Obi will struggle in ss.he is not from here,okowa is on the ballot. His party is weak

obi is more popular than okowa in the south south.....

okowa influence ends In delta even in delta self it's still in doubt cus he performed poorly as a governor

Donsheddy:


obi is more popular than okowa in the south south.....

okowa influence ends In delta even in delta self it's still in doubt cus he performed poorly as a governor

True but in ss,popularity is not enough.it is party structure,resources and money that matters.

garfield1:


True but in ss,popularity is not enough.it is party structure,resources and money that matters.

and how do you know structures are not in place....
money also in tact....
alot will change in 2023 alot of people are becoming aware to the fact that selling votes isn't the right thing to do....

coupled with the current economic hardship...

expect alot of miracles in the next election I know what I'm telling you.....

I've engaged with alot of mamas who I know to be staunch Apc members in rivers state....

they are all rooting for labour party...
no Jokes

@Garfield, Apart from the 3K NW states mentioned, the name of states in NE, SE and SW ( excluding Lagos) were not disclosed.. Please where did you get the name of selected NE states..Again, help me with the name of SE and SW states from your source.. Thank you.

Donsheddy:


and how do you know structures are not in place....
money also in tact....
alot will change in 2023 alot of people are becoming aware to the fact that selling votes isn't the right thing to do....

coupled with the current economic hardship...

expect alot of miracles in the next election I know what I'm telling you.....

I've engaged with alot of mamas who I know to be staunch Apc members in rivers state....

they are all rooting for labour party...
no Jokes

I was offered labour secretary in my ward.the party is weak.between 2011 and 2015,lp was very strong in crs and fielded popular candidates but they couldn't win.examples was senator sandy onor who is now in psp representing crs central and hon Alex egbona representing abi yakurr in apc.they couldn't win in labour till they joined bigger parties.how can an outsider like obi now win under labour

garfield1:


You are not getting it.in nw,the projections are tight.nnpp is projected to win by 19%,pdp 18% and apc 17% which is 1% apart which is tight margins.ive alwats told you that results will be tight in core north and the polls were taken in kaduna,kano,katsina and thats where nnpp is strongest.they didnt touch zamfara,kebbi,jigawa where apc is strong.in ne,they touched Adamawa,taraba and Christians dominate these areas.they didn't touch borno,yobe.

Turnout in se/ss is usually low so the bloc votes will be lower than sw or north.

@Garfield, Apart from the 3K NW states mentioned, the name of states in NE, SE and SW ( excluding Lagos) were not disclosed.. Please where did you get the name of selected NE states..Again, help me with the name of SE and SW states from your source.. Thank you.

IAMTHEHERO:


@Garfield, Apart from the 3K NW states mentioned, the name of states in NE, SE and SW ( excluding Lagos) were not disclosed.. Please where did you get the name of selected NE states..Again, help me with the name of SE and SW states from your source.. Thank you.

This people used similar analysis like anap polls.I deduced that they used similar states.in ss,they mentioned 4 States.

When you refused to learn and read, this is what you get.
That's by day way. Nobody is asking you to vote for Peter Obi, more suffering will force you to have sense and vote right.

tsdarkside:
wait wait....
are you sayin because of online polls,we should all change our minds and vote obi....??

YourhealthNG2:
Why is this not on the front page

Is it because it's not pro-Tinubu

Cc:

Seun

Mynd44

OAM4J

They will never push it

YourhealthNG2:

As 2023 general elections draw closer, Nigerians in various parts of the country have mostly settled for Labour presidential candidate Peter Obi as their preferred choice in a physical poll conducted in December 2022, with barely two months to D-day.

The result of polls conducted between the 1st and 4th of December by the media outfit BantuPage, showed that Labour Party’s Obi was preferred by most of the eligible voters in the Federal Capital Territory, Southeast, South-south and North-central geopolitical zones.

The overall poll revealed that 37% of the polled respondent spread in all the geo-graphical zones preferred Ob[/b]i. While 15%, 14% and 4% preferred the APC, PDP and NNPP respectively, 17% of the respondents were still undecided, 9% do not intend to vote with 4% unwilling to disclose their preferred candidates.

In the [b]direct physical poll conducted by the media team in the country, Nigerian electorates in the selected States revealed that the preference for their candidates were based on religion, competence and other reasons.

Analysis of the poll results by BantuPage revealed that most respondents representing 19% of the both male and female population within the three selected states of Kano, Katsina and Kaduna preferred NNPP’s Kwankwaso in the Northwest. Though 18%, 15% and 7% had PDP, APC and LP respectively as their second preference, a whopping 32% were still undecided.

The result was however different in Northeast as PDP’s presidential candidate Atiku polled more with 38% respondents choosing him as their preferred candidate while LP, APC and NNPP had 15%, 12% and 2% respectively with 27% eligible voters undecided.

Results from the South-south region, mostly in Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Edo states, LP’s presidential candidate Obi led the way with 66% respondents for voting intent. PDP and APC were both tied at 7% each, while 3 % preferred NNPP and 6% still undecided.

For North Central respondents, 45% intend to vote LP, while 14%, 13% and 3% had a preference for APC, PDP and NNPP respectively with 15% yet undecided.

Southwest respondents preferred the APC candidate with the ruling party amassing 34%, followed by LP and PDP with 23% and 17% respectively. Only 1% of polled respondent intended to vote for the NNPP candidate although 17% were still undecided. While the APC candidate may have won the entire Southwest region, the poll results showed that he actually came in second in Lagos state to LP, polling only 28% while LP had 31%. Further analysis revealed that this LP’s victory in Lagos was influenced by the fact that Lagos is a multi-ethnic city. A drill down on how Yorubas voted in Lagos revealed that Tinubu would have won Lagos with 47% and LP would have been a distant second at only 10%.

[b]The LP also had the highest preference amongst respondents from the Southeast with 72% of voting intentions. The APC and PDP each scored 3% and 2% respectively of voting intent while the NNPP scored zero. Despite voter apathy and security challenges occasioned by the clamour for secession in the South East, there was a very high intent to vote with only 6% yet undecided.

Similarly, result of polls conducted in the Federal Capital Territory gave LP wide edge with 44% while APC, PDP and NNPP got 11%, 10% and 3% respectively. With 11% still undecided.

Areas polled in Federal capital territory were Garki Area 1, Asokoro, Wuse Zone 5, Gudu, Bwari Area Council, Gwagwalada Area Council Zuba, Gwagwalada Area Council Tunga Maje, Gwagwalada Area Council, University of Abuja, Gwagwalada Area Council Giri, Kuje Area Council Kuje Ibi, Kuje Area Council Kuje Market, Kuje Ako, Kuje Area Council Kuje Guduaba, Garki Area 2, Garki Area 10, Garki Area 3, Wuse 2 and Jabi.

Talking about the rationale behind the choice of candidates and voting intentions, the spokesperson for BantuPage in a statement made available Friday, said, “What’s also interesting here is that ethnicity and religion, which are two of Nigeria’s fault lines, had little impact on respondents’ choice of voting intention. Our data showed that of the 59% of our respondents who gave a reason for their voting intentions, only 2% said religion was their motivator, 3% for ethnicity, 1% for party affiliation, 11% for change, 13% for age, and a staggering 70% for capacity and trust.

“Again, we made sure our numbers per area were limited and spread across the cities/states so that our results would be as representative as possible of the demographic area and those who conducted the poll were natives of various zones, we have video evidence of everything.”

“These polling results from BantuPage poll is the first of three series expected to be conducted before the election to gauge the feelings of Nigerians especially to know if the results of the first poll will be replicated or whether voting intentions have changed or some of the undecided voters had settled for a particular candidate as election gets ever closer.

“Our first monthly poll has just concluded, and we are looking to publish these. One thing that is very different from our numbers is that we broke down our interviews in different categories apart from the usual a yes or no on whom the respondents are likely to vote for.

“We intend to run a once-a-month general polling on the above categories, i.e. December 2022 (just completed polls), January, and February just before the election.

“We selected three states from each geo-political zone for our polls, normally, not more than 10 respondents in each community or local government with the exemption of Lagos and Kano where the population numbers are quite high. Unlike other polls conducted, 95% of our respondents were recorded (all recordings are available), whilst 5% were voice recordings of polled individuals who didn’t wish to be captured on video recording. In our January polls, we will cover the remaining three states in each geopolitical zone that we did not poll during our December polls, whilst we intend to capture the entire country in one fell swoop in our penultimate polling in February.

“Our polls are the most comprehensive and detailed ever carried out in Nigeria. Our results are peer reviewed for rigour and robustness, and our sampling ensured that any chance of inadvertent bias was eliminated,” the poll coordinators added.

garfield1:


Not true.from 2007,nw turnout usually equals turnout in se/ss.I already told you that the research in ne was conducted in taraba,Adamawa and gombe where Christians are many.if you add borno,yobe and bauchi,tinubu will smash obi.tinubu win in ne/nw cancels out obi victory in se/ss.they share votes in nc and tinubu beats him in sw.game over

They deceive yourself

garfield1:


This people used similar analysis like anap polls.I deduced that they used similar states.in ss,they mentioned 4 States.

Brotherly, this is not true.. ANAP based theirs on 1000 respondents covering all states and geopolitical zones.. Not selected states..Please don’t confuse ANAP poll with Nextier poll..

Labor Party Camping Organization need to do more. I am only hearing PDP and APC camping on radio

IAMTHEHERO:


Brotherly, this is not true.. ANAP based theirs on 1000 respondents covering all states and geopolitical zones.. Not selected states..Please don’t confuse ANAP poll with Nextier poll..

Anap polls is the best.all these others are copying from anap.

garfield1:


This people used similar analysis like anap polls.I deduced that they used similar states.in ss,they mentioned 4 States.

Not only that 4 states were selected in SS but all SW states were used for the geopolitical zone from the information..
l want to establish some undisputed facts before l go into the detailed analysis.. This will reduce counter arguments from you..

IAMTHEHERO:


Not only that 4 states were selected in SS but all SW states were used for the geopolitical zone from the information..
l want to you establish some undisputed facts before l go into the detailed analysis.. This will reduce counter arguments from you..

Oga,they said they used 3 states in each region not all states.

garfield1:


Anap polls is the best.all these others are copying from anap.

Firstly, “the ANAP that you are saying is the best” was disputed and rubbished by APC. They went further to claim that Peterside Atedo is Peter Obi’s associate..

I followed Nextier Poll closely and line by line.. They were more in details than ANAP .. Though they selected 3 states in each geopolitical zone ( excluding the state of the presidential candidates), they reached out to more respondents outside the urban cities..

Now Bantupage.com poll.. Which l will analyze in details

garfield1:


Oga,they said they used 3 states in each region not all states.

You said it by yourself that 4 states were used for SS - Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom and Edo.. Which is true..

Now didn’t you read this in Bantupage poll report:

“While the APC candidate may have won the entire Southwest region, the poll results showed that he actually came in second in Lagos state to LP, polling only 28% while LP had 31%. “

And this is what l’m trying to avoid.. Unnecessary arguments.

IAMTHEHERO:


Firstly, “the ANAP that you are saying is the best” was disputed and rubbished by APC. They went further to claim that Peterside Atedo is Peter Obi’s associate..

I followed Nextier Poll closely and line by line.. They were more in details than ANAP .. Though they selected 3 states in each geopolitical zone ( excluding the state of the presidential candidates), they reached out to more respondents outside the urban cities..

Now Bantupage.com poll.. Which l will analyze in details

Anap is the best for me.they have been consistent since 2015.who knows nextier and Bantu? What is their pedigree

IAMTHEHERO:


You said it by yourself that 4 states were used for SS - Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom and Edo.. Which is true..

Now didn’t you read this in Bantupage poll report:

“While the APC candidate may have won the entire Southwest region, the poll results showed that he actually came in second in Lagos state to LP, polling only 28% while LP had 31%. “

And this is what l’m trying to avoid.. Unnecessary arguments.

Entire doesnt mean they used the six states in the se sir.they can always use 2-4 states to rep a zone

37% of the polled respondent spread in all the geo-graphical zones preferred Ob[/b]i. While 15%, 14% and 4% preferred the APC, PDP and NNPP respectively, 17% of the respondents were still undecided, 9% do not intend to vote with 4% unwilling to disclose their preferred candidates.

The above statement is deep..It means none of the other candidates got up to half of Peter Obi’s vote.. Barring last minute change, it means this election is as good as won/lost. What PDP/APC should be praying is for Peter Obi not to get the constitutional 25% in 2/3 of the 36 states. ( that’s 25% in 24 states).

garfield1:


Entire doesnt mean they used the six states in the se sir.they can always use 2-4 states to rep a zone

I did not mention SE and read what l quoted.. Well, take whatever that suits you. The document is there for all to read..

garfield1:


I already told you yesterday that tinubu I get 2 mil from nw,2 mil from ne...while obi gets 500k.in se obi wins se by 2 mil and ss by 500k-1 mil and tinubu wins sw by 2 mil.always remember that nw equals se ss.

State-------------VoteCount-------VotesToPreferedCandidate
Abia--------------391045------------94.18%
Anambra-------670675.9---------98.52%
Ebonyi----------363888------------88.94%
Enugu-----------573173-----------96.48%
Imo--------------702964-----------79.55%

Total -----------2.701.745,9

So, let's interrogate the facts and figures regarding your claim. In 2015, according to INEC numbers, as I outlined above, the total votes cast in SE were 2.701.745.9. Now, Let's keep in mind that SE and also SS always voted in tandem. Votes cast are estimated to rise by nearly 42% in this election cycle.

If we are to be conservative in the estimation of expected LP votes and assign 79% of votes cast, 2.701.745,9 * 79 / 100 = 2.134.379,261.

Please tell me, where did you get your imaginary 500.000,00 from?.

Anyone that reads the Bantupage.com poll report with open mind, without sentiment and emotion should know everything they put there is not far from the reality..

Take a look at Lagos.. Check all the polls being conducted by different TV media on who Lagosians will vote in the 2023 presidential election on YouTube .. Alimosho, Ikorodu, Oshodi, Igando, Iyana Ipaja etc it is either Peter Obi won it or ran neck to neck with Tinubu.. Why the every week rally being carried out by APC in Lagos? They are being done as result of fear ..Why is APC trying to activate the violence button as the last resort in Lagos?

00FFT00:


State-------------VoteCount-------VotesToPreferedCandidate
Abia--------------391045------------94.18%
Anambra-------670675.9---------98.52%
Ebonyi----------363888------------88.94%
Enugu-----------573173-----------96.48%
Imo--------------702964-----------79.55%

Total -----------2.701.745,9

So, let's interrogate the facts and figures regarding your claim. In 2015, according to INEC numbers, as I outlined above, the total votes cast in SE were 2.701.745.9. Now, Let's keep in mind that SE and also SS always voted in tandem. Votes cast are estimated to rise by nearly 42% in this election cycle.

If we are to be conservative in the estimation of expected LP votes and assign 79% of votes cast, 2.701.745,9 * 79 / 100 = 2.134.379,261.

Please tell me, where did you get your imaginary 500.000,00 from?.

No,am estimating on a 4 mil turnout

Further analysis revealed that this LP’s victory in Lagos was influenced by the fact that Lagos is a multi-ethnic city. A drill down on how Yorubas voted in Lagos revealed that Tinubu would have won Lagos with 47% and LP would have been a distant second at only 10%.

Take a look at the above statement.. At the onset of the campaigns, most Yorubas were going for Peter Obi based on competence and integrity, but now ethnicity and propaganda have caused most of them to change their minds. Though some attributed it to the way some Igbos and Obidients abuse them in comment sections. Also some of them are being threatened in some Yorubas groups, they are being called unprintable names..

nlfpmod fp please