Atiku has 21 states sure of 25%, Tinubu has 20 states he’s sure of 25%

With the changing realities in next year’s electoral permutations, there is an increasing likelihood that the first ballot at the February 25 presidential election may not produce a clear winner.

By implication, there may be a run-off in the presidential bout before a clear winner is returned by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Although, with their current standing, the presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, can still boast 21 states, where he is certain to get 25 per cent, while his All Progressives Congress (APC) rival, Bola Tinubu, is confident of 20 states, where he can also pull his weight.

The candidates of Labour Party, Peter Obi, and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, follow as third and fourth in that order with insignificant postings in many states to satisfy the constitutional requirement of 25 per cent of votes cast in 24 states.

This latest development follow a recent THISDAY poll – The Explainer – released by the THISDAY 2023 Election Centre, where a breakdown of the new realities is advanced, with implications for each candidate.

Some of the factors responsible for the new realities include the presence of the candidates in each of the states, their structures and support base, capacity to mobilise, the contents of their respective manifestos, ethnic sentiments, their popularity and name recognition, as well as financial war chest.

While the factors function differently from zone to zone, those responsible for the state-by-state analysis also differ in many respects, with the political parties playing defining roles as well.

NORTH-CENTRAL

In the North-central, there is a mixed bag of factors responsible for candidates’ stand, which is almost defying the previous extrapolation.

Plateau State:

A traditional PDP state currently under the control of the ruling APC, there is a battle to take back the state from APC, even though the ruling party is leaving nothing to chance. Yet, LP is encroaching and making a significant inroad. Here, according to The Explainer, Tinubu is at the moment on 20 per cent, Atiku 35 per cent, Obi 35 per cent, Kwankwaso five per cent, and the others/undecided, five per cent each.

Benue State:

Benue’s situation is close to Plateau, but the candidates stand differently. While Tinubu is struggling with 20 per cent, Atiku is slightly with an edge at 25 per cent, but Obi pushes up to 30 per cent, while Kwankwaso is at 10 and the others/undecided stands at 15 per cent each. The LP advantage may not be unconnected with the position of the governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom, who has publicly declared support for Obi.

Nasarawa State:

Although an APC state, the current realities do not show such advantage. Here, Tinubu is at 30 per cent, Atiku 25 per cent, but Obi is also 25 per cent, Kwankwaso 10 per cent, while the others/undecided 10 percent.

Niger State:

This is one North-central state that has remained largely unpredictable in terms of its behaviour ahead of 2023, even though it is at the moment controlled by APC. Tinubu and Atiku are at 35 per cent each, while Obi, Kwankwaso and others/undecided stay at 10 per cent each.

Kogi State:

For the ruling APC, Kogi is one of those unreliable states as far as 2023 is concerned. Nonetheless, Tinubu and Atiku are at 35 per cent each, Obi boasts 15 per cent, Kwankwaso is at five per cent, and the others/undecided are at 10 per cent.

Kwara State:

Since the journey to 2023 began, Kwara is one North-central state that has remained consistent with PDP and where the party can hedge its bet. With the incumbency factor at play, Tinubu is at 35 per cent, while Atiku is at 40 per cent. But Obi and Kwankwaso are at 10 per cent each, while the others/undecided are at five per cent.

NORTH-EAST

Though, bogged down by insecurity, the North-east comes to the 2023 race with huge strength. The presidential candidate of PDP, Atiku, is from the zone, while the vice-presidential candidate of APC, Kashim Shettima, is also from the same area. This interesting situation also makes the zone somewhat impenetrable for the others.

Borno State:

With the Shettima factor and home zone advantage, Tinubu is at 40 per cent here, Atiku 35 per cent, Obi’s score is infinitesimal, Kwankwaso 15 per cent, while the others/undecided are on five per cent.

Yobe State:

Yobe offers a serious struggle between APC and PDP, with an insignificant impact of the others. Tinubu is at 40 per cent here, Atiku is on 35 per cent, Obi five per cent, Kwankwaso 15 per cent, and the others/undecided are 15 per cent.

Adamawa State:

More than any other time and in addition to the incumbency factor in the state, coupled with the home advantage, Atiku’s influence continues to be on the rise here. Thus, while Tinubu is struggling with 20 per cent, Atiku boasts a comfortable 60 per cent, Obi is at 10 per cent, Kwankwaso five per cent and, the others/undecided share five per cent.

Taraba State:

With an extended influence of the PDP candidate to Taraba, Tinubu is taking with him 10 per cent, Atiku has 40 per cent, Obi 20 per cent, Kwankwaso 20 per cent, and the others/undecided make do with 10 per cent.

Gombe State:

The zone advantage is still at play for the PDP candidate, where the people would rather choose their son for the number one position than their other son, who is number two. Tinubu has 20 per cent here, Atiku has 40 per cent, Obi 15 per cent, Kwankwaso five per cent, and the others/undecided have 20 per cent.

Bauchi State:

A PDP state, Bauchi is putting its all into the election and giving its candidate his best chance possible. Tinubu is at 20 per cent here, Atiku has 40 per cent, Obi five per cent, Kwankwaso 15 per cent, and the others/undecided are at 20 per cent.

NORTH-WEST

The North-west is about the most important in the equation in terms of votes return. Unfortunately, Tinubu is losing steam here while Atiku and Kwankwaso are gaining ground. This is because APC has put its campaign on the back of governors in the zone, whereas the governors themselves are not that strong, with the planning of their retirement. Importantly, too, the governors are afraid of what happened to former President Goodluck Jonathan, who had 23 governors and eight of the governors lost their states. Above all, the North-west governors are not happy with Tinubu, as he promised a majority of them the ticket to pair with him, but chose Shettima, a Kanuri, instead. That even looks like the most important factor.

Kano State:

With the interplay of interests as the north headquarters, Tinubu is doing 30 per cent here, despite the fact that it is an APC state. Atiku is at 20 per cent, Obi five per cent, while Kwankwaso is at 40 per cent. The others/undecided share five per cent.

Kaduna State:

In Kaduna, Tinubu is doing 30 per cent, Atiku 25 per cent, Obi 20 per cent, Kwankwaso 20 per cent, and the others/undecided five per cent.

Katsina State:

The home state of President Muhammadu Buhari with an APC governor is showing a rather interesting result. In spite of the many advantages, Tinubu is at 30 per cent, Atiku 40 per cent, Obi is not in play, Kwankwaso is 25 per cent and the others/undecided are five per cent.

Jigawa State:

This is an APC state, but PDP is doing well here. Tinubu is at 25 per cent, Atiku 35 per cent, Obi does not seem visible here, Kwankwaso is at 25 per cent, while the others/undecided have 10 per cent.

Sokoto State:

Sokoto promises a close race, with Tinubu doing 35 per cent and Atiku 40 per cent. Not unexpectedly, Obi is also not in play here, but Kwankwaso is at 15 per cent while the others/undecided are at 10 per cent.

Kebbi State:

The race here is similar to Sokoto’s, albeit propelled by dissimilar factors. Tinubu boasts 35 per cent here, Atiku 35 per cent, Obi is non-existent, Kwankwaso is at 20 per cent, while the others/undecided are 10 per cent.

Zamfara State:

Tinubu is doing well here because of Governor Bello Matawalle, who is campaigning seriously for him. In addition, APC has tried to use the court to hold down and remove the PDP candidate, Dauda Lawan-Dare. However, if Lawan-Dare, a former First Bank Executive Director, survives the court battle, Atiku might win Zamfara, with Gen. Aliyu Gasau also fighting for him. But Tinubu is currently doing 40 per cent, Atiku 35 per cent, Obi is out of equation, Kwankwaso is at 20 per cent and the others/undecided, five per cent.

SOUTH-EAST

The South-east is a zone of interest in the 2023 general election. This is because in spite of the multi-faceted security situation in the place, it is looking like a clean sweep for Obi, while the other candidates struggle to get some paltry recognition.

Anambra State:

As a South-east state, Anambra is solidly behind Obi and this is in spite of a recent comment by Governor Chukwuma Soludo. Obi is pitching for a landslide. This is because the average Igbo man just wants to make a statement with Obi’s candidacy. For many here, it is not about Obi winning or not winning. Here, Tinubu is on five per cent, Atiku 10 per cent, Obi 70 per cent, Kwankwaso is not in play, while the others/undecided are at 15 per cent.

Abia State:

The ethnic sentiment is also prevalent here and this sees Tinubu doing 10 per cent, Atiku doing 15 per cent, Obi comfortably on 60 per cent, Kwankwaso is non-existent, and the others/undecided are 15 per cent.

Ebonyi State:

Tinubu and Atiku are at 15 per cent each, Obi is at 60 per cent, Kwankwaso is not visible here, while the others/undecided are 10 per cent.

Enugu State:

In Enugu, Tinubu is doing 10 per cent, Atiku 15 per cent, Obi 60 per cent, Kwankwaso is not in play but the others/undecided are 15 per cent.

Imo State:

The permutations in Imo are slightly different, combined with its peculiar security situation and in spite of the incumbency factor. Nevertheless, Tinubu is at 15 per cent, Atiku 20 per cent, Obi 60 per cent, Kwankwaso is not reckoned, and the others/undecided are five per cent.

SOUTH-SOUTH

Delta State:

The PDP presidential running mate and incumbent governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, has upped the PDP chances in the state. But the opposition still gives a good fight. In Delta Central where Omo Agege comes from, it’s divided between Omo Agege, Ogboru and Ibori, while Delta South and Delta North are essentially PDP strong hold, but very recently, Peter Obi has been making inroads into the north. Here, Tinubu is doing 15 per cent, Atiku is on 40 per cent, Obi 35 per cent, Kwankwaso is not in play, and the others/undecided are 10 per cent.

Edo State:

Although the PDP has always done well in its presidential postings in the state, the game this time is slightly different. Tinubu is on 15 per cent, Atiku and Obi are doing 35 per cent each, Kwankwaso is not in play, while the others/undecided are 15 per cent.

Akwa Ibom State:

A PDP terrain, the governor of the state, Udom Emmanuel, is the chairman of the presidential campaign council. The party looks comfortable here. Tinubu is on 15 per cent, Atiku 40 per cent, Obi 35 per cent, Kwankwaso is not reckoned, and the others/undecided, 10 per cent.

Bayelsa State:

A traditional PDP stronghold, Bayelsa remains loyal to the opposition party, but with strong contest by the others. Tinubu is at 20 per cent, Atiku 40 per cent, Obi 30 per cent, Kwankwaso is out of the equation, and the others/undecided are 10 per cent.

Cross River:

Cross River has a different play, which has defied many guesses and extrapolations. Tinubu is at 25 per cent, Atiku is playing at 20 per cent, Obi 35 per cent, Kwankwaso is not in the equation and the others/undecided are 15 per cent.

Rivers State:

Rivers is going to be one of the most interesting states to watch. There is the possibility that the Wike factor will work against PDP. Wike has not decided yet. He said he would decide in the coming days and he is likely to support Obi, taking after Ortom. So far, Tinubu is on 10 per cent, Atiku 15 per cent, Obi 35 per cent, Kwankwaso is not in contention, and the others/undecided are at 40 per cent.

SOUTH-WEST

Of all the zones, South-west is about the most cosmopolitan with electoral choices, and also tolerant of others, irrespective of their ethnic leanings. This is evident in their pattern of voting.

Lagos State:

This is Tinubu’s base, where he is like a “god” over everything that breathes and non-living. Yet, the threat posed by the opposition is real. With the incumbency factor and home advantage, Tinubu is comfortably doing 45 per cent, Atiku 20 per cent, Obi 25 per cent, Kwankwaso five per cent and the others/undecided are five per cent.

Ogun State:

In Ogun, despite the incumbency factor and fractionalisation in the party, Tinubu is still doing 45 per cent, Atiku 20 per cent, Obi 10 per cent, Kwankwaso 15 per cent, and the others/undecided are at 15 per cent.

Ondo State:

PDP has always done well in the presidential elections in Ondo, the sentiment that Tinubu is Yoruba might have tainted the pattern. Therefore, Tinubu is at 45 per cent, Atiku is at 20 per cent, Obi is 10 per cent, Kwankwaso 10 per cent, and the others/undecided are15 per cent.

Ekiti State:

Recent developments have shown that PDP in Ekiti State has begun to close ranks and work for the success of its candidate. But the newly elected government of APC also has relative control in the state. So far, Tinubu is doing 45 per cent, Atiku is on 20 per cent, Obi 15 per cent, Kwankwaso is not in play, and the others/undecided are 15 per cent.

Oyo State:

The capital of South-west politics, Oyo is also looking in the way of Tinubu and this much the governor, Makinde, hinted at during a radio interview some time ago. Tinubu is on 40 per cent, Atiku 20 per cent, Obi 15 per cent, Kwankwaso 15 per cent, and the others/undecided are also 15 per cent.

Osun State:

Of all the states in the South-west zone, Osun chose to differ a bit by not weighing too much on Tinubu’s side, unlike the others. With a PDP governor, who is not revolting against the party leadership, it is no wonder that the party is comfortable in the state. Yet, there is a Yoruba movement that wants Tinubu. Here, Tinubu is at 35 per cent, Atiku 35 per cent, Obi is at 5 per cent, Kwankwaso is 5 per cent, while the others/undecided are 20 per cent.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/12/27/thisday-2023-election-centre-why-presidential-run-off-is-increasingly-likely/

There will be no run off Obi will win before 8am on election day.

We give INEC 8am on election day to declare Peter Obi the winner of 2023 election.

we call on president Buhari to place a congratulatory call to Peter Obi by 8:05am.

And we expect urchinsons to commit suicide latest by 8:07am.

INEC also budgeted for a run off...



.

Good analysis No.

After Nigerians have been slaughtered like cows in the hands of a Fulani Muslim President for 8 years, only low IQ Nigerians will vote either a Muslim-muslim or another Fulani Muslim. Because, as it is, just anybody can be the NEXT to be slaughtered.

Nigerians are no more as stupid as they think. 2023 will be a big surprise. Even wise Muslims know that Atiku and Tinubu don't care about Allah. So, they hate them for trying to play dirty politics with their holy religion.

It's why they stoned the Tinubu team in Niger State. They know that voting Buhari couldn't save even Katsinans from bandits. They are wiser now.

If Nigerians miss Obi in 2023, their suffer suffer go last well well. Obi is one big opPOrtunity to stop the suffering.

Nigerians, don't miss it. Macron happened in France. Ruto happened in Kenya. Obama happened in US. All these looked impossible before they happened. So, Obi can happen in Nigeria. Don't mind all these gutter analysts who don't know what's going on on the streets.

Whatever happens in 2023, Everyone needs to know this…

HOW TO BE TOTALLY UNSTOPPABLE IN 2023: 7 SIMPLE POINTS (G. Loreddy)

I learned this recently and you can learn it too: You have a unique opportunity to turn your dreams into reality in 2023 and no other time.

Do these 7 simple things:

1. Don't limit yourself by what you think you can or can't do. You can do almost ANYTHING you set your mind on. Just believing this WITH ALL YOUR HEART will make a lot of difference. So, take time NOW to AFFIRM it in your head and heart.

2. Make up your mind to break up COMPLETELY with your negative past. It can be done. Many have done it. YOU can do it. And, until you do it, don't ever expect any real progress in your life.

3. Visualize EXACTLY how you want your life to be by the end of 2023. Make it as vivid and as colourful as possible. Focus on it so much that you feel you already have it. If you do this well, your emotions will tell you: You'd feel so good that you tend to forget all your past negative experiences.

4. Resolve to let your visualized world reflect in your positive talks ALWAYS. No one whose life is OK talks trash.

5. Make friends with people who are bigger and better than you in the kind of life you visualized. Here's one of the greatest secrets I know to help you connect qualitatively with people who are much richer or better than you.

6. Far above 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, prioritize your faith in the Higher Power. Whatever you call the Higher Power, what matters most is that you prioritize your faith in XYZ (where 'XYZ' refers to your Higher Power).

7. Share this with as many people in your circle as possible. This makes you automatically accountable to them. Thus, when you start slacking mid-year, someone is certain to remind you how you are falling short of what you 'preached' to them.

That's all. Truth is always simple but proved in ACTION. So, don't waste your time: Try it and see it… from NOW.

Did you find this useful or not? Let us know by your comments below and follow us for more insights. Have a great 2023.

SOURCE

Tinubu will win with a landslide and there won't be any runoff or second ballot.

G00DHardDick:


Tinubu will come distant 5th after sowore

Eyaaa.... I can feel your pain and tears as the reality has set in that the pandemic Obituary is in the race but not in the game.

If Thisday that's anti-Tinubu and pro PDP/LP can accept the reality to this extent then Asiwaju has no match in the election.

However giving Atiku 35% each in Borno and Yobe state respectively as against Atiku 2019 earning of 7% and 8% in those states is the most ridiculous projection I've heard in this millennium.

G00DHardDick:
We give INEC 8am on election day to declare Peter Obi the winner of 2023 election.

we call on president Buhari to place a congratulatory call to Peter Obi by 8:05am.

And we expect urchinsons to commit suicide latest by 8:07am.

Well,

There are Contenders and Pretenders for the 2023 presidential election. Run-off seems unlikely.

Let’s wait and see.
February isn’t far anymore

Amotolongbo:
Well,

There are Contenders and Pretenders for the 2023 election.

Let’s wait and see

Others are inconsequential. Atiku will come second, kwankwaso will come third, sowore will come fourth while Tinubu will struggle to maintain the 5th position after sowore

Aufbauh:
Tinubu will win with a landslide and there won't be any runoff or second ballot.

Tinubu will come distant 5th after sowore

This day analysis report is closer to truth rather armchair experts giving imaginary polls sitting in mama's house.

In Tinubu and Atiku's strongholds, they didn't give them 70% winning margin in any state. But in the South East which is Mr. Pandora Greengory's stronghold, they are giving him 70% winning margin. But anything to raise the hopes of these wishful thinkers is welcomed.

Here this....

Atiku will win the election at the first ballot
Pandora Greengory will not win a single state
Zombiedients will wail and wail and end up saying Pandora "tried"
Igbos and UGM will go on an agitation and killing spree.
South East will be further depopulated
Pandora will try to come back to the PDP and negotiate for a ministerial slot.
Atiku will go on to become the best president since the beginning of the fourth republic.


Congratulations to PDP

Atiku no get Opposition

Power to the people
North 2023

E too sure Walahi

February e go clear


May .. make Una go stop swearing in

Reality go reset urchins and bingos ..

Thisday is an arm of PDP.

Asiwaju wins landslide, once and for all.

No run off

Stopped taking the analysis serious when I saw Atiku 40 and Obi 30 in Akwa Ibom state. No way Atiku is getting more votes than Obi except its rigged.

EKONGKING:
This day analysis report is closer to truth rather armchair experts giving imaginary polls sitting in mama's house.

When it favours your god you say positive things.

Useless propaganda

This one na PDP analysis

ijustdey:



Atiku has 21 states sure of 25%, Tinubu has 20 states he’s sure of 25%




https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/12/27/thisday-2023-election-centre-why-presidential-run-off-is-increasingly-likely/

Edo State:

Although the PDP has always done well in its presidential postings in the state, the game this time is slightly different. Tinubu is on 15 per cent, Atiku and Obi are doing 35 per cent each, Kwankwaso is not in play, while the others/undecided are 15 per cent.


Nlfpmod

Lols this one na beer parlour analysis. If Obi no get 75% for Edo mk I know wetin cause am.

This analysis is obviously a paid one.

G00DHardDick:


Others are inconsequential. Atiku will come second, kwankwaso will come third, sowore will come fourth while Tinubu will struggle to maintain the 5th position after sowore

Comedian

Starcrest1:


Lols this one na beer parlour analysis. If Obi no get 75% for Edo mk I know wetin cause am.

This analysis is obviously a paid one.

You dey mind those clown?

Obi will get over 98% votes here in Edo State. Ignore those urchins trying to console themselves

Kwara PDP, thisday is mad. Even with your analogy Tinubu wins.

Quack analyst

Even though, we have begin to see where the pendulum go swing, it's still difficult to bet a candidate with my life savings

If una like make oduduwa and danfodia come and do 2023 analysis, OBI IS A GOAL





We say no to touts apc/PDP!

Come 2023, we want to try another person Obi/datti 2023 is a sure banker. Full cashout

PDP lied for 16yrs and apc is mad for 8yrs

Labour Party./Obi/datti 2023 done and dusted.

Salamalekum
Ndewo
Ekuche

If there's a runoff. Wouldn't atiku emerge since OBI won't be in the ballot?

Ok

I stopped reading when I saw Kwara 40% for Atiku 30% for Tinubu.


Nduka Obaigbena is smoking igbo


Osun my state, werey Obaigbena is telling me Tinubu and Atiku are both on 35% each, orie ti daru.

There'll only be a runoff if there were up to 8 heavyweight candidates with wide national appeal. As it stands now, there's no state where the person who emerges the overall lead will not have at least 25%.

Oniranu

Jack005:
When it favours your god you say positive things.

Hello boss , I don't support anybody.

Unless there is restructuring of the country ,nothing will work.
This election is just a time pass activity ,which will lead country to nowhere.

Abeg make February come, make this election pass joor.

The Noise from various quartersis disturbing joor.

Make we do election, make we know the next thing joor.

Though I am a Peter Obi supporter , if we go with the current political trend your analysis seem perfect but we hope for a good shift soonest .