1. The first thing is to know the estimated number of voters

In Nigeria you can fairly estimate that to be 100 million (around 96 million actually see
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1343781/annual-number-of-registered-voters-in-nigeria/)

The second thing to note is voters turnout rate.

This is estimated at 30-35% (see
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanguardngr.com/2021/02/nigeria-voter-turnout-hovers-around-30-35-inec/amp/.)

Thus, the total voters turnout expected for 2023 will be around 33 million.

Note, each election comes with very strong, emotive reason why we should ordinarily expect 70-90% voters turnout. 2007 was described as do or die. 2011 as fresh air 2015 as change, etc. At the end we are who we are. Only the figures are redistributed but every election cycle remains under 35%.

If you go beyond this, it is allowed in social discussions but not in science where empirical evidence and data counts. And it is actually not worth arguing about because it is purely wishful thinking

The 3rd thing is voters turnout per region.

NW 7. 8 million plus
NC 5. 2 million plus
SS 5. 1 million plus
NE 5. 5 million plus
SW 5.7 million plus
SE 4. 2 million plus
Total 33.5 million

See Nigeria Presidential Elections Results 2019 by BBC.
APC 15,191,847 PDP 11,262,978
Approximately 27 million.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-f0b25208-4a1d-4068-a204-940cbe88d1d3

If we project 33.5million for 2023 it means there will be approximately 6 million new voters. This more than account for any euphoria or hysteria of a new transition.

There is a formidable 3rd force. At this stage so the 33. 5 million will not be split 2 ways as usual. The 3rd force will take significant chunk (some believe it will be the deciding chunk) . So the winning candidate is not likely to get up to 15 million voters.

This is where pollsters talk about the math of the demography. You may be very popular but if the demography that favours you do not have the numbers then the math is not in your favour.

Looking at the voters distribution
Who ever takes 50% of NW (4m) and NE (3m) and either of NC (3m), and SS (3m) will certainly be the winner. the combination gives 10 million votes. He will only need a handful of 3.5 million votes from the remaining 3 geopolitical zones clinch a marginal victory.

What is clear.
The 3rd force holds the balance of power. In a parliamentary system, he will join the either of the top 2 to form a coalition government. In a presidential system, the winner takes all.

As of now only one party has got the math. But governing a nation as complex as Nigeria, we have learnt is not a game of numbers.

Truthfully this underlying stats should be the basis of any reasonable and practicable projection.

The prediction is correct after all.

TruthAdvocate:
The prediction is correct after all.

On the issue of 25% of 2/3 of the States of the Federation and FCT, the law does not intend to elevate and cannot elevate a unit of the Federation to an electoral college there by making the voters within the unit Super delegates of super voters in a democratic process. That will ordinarily violates section 42 of the constitution which prohibits discrimination.