These 7 states below are the only states with more than 3million PVC holders. In particular order:

1. Lagos
2. Kano
3. Kaduna
4. Rivers
5. Katsina
6. Oyo
7. Delta.

These states hold about 27million voter's cards, which account for about 30% of all the voter's card in circulation.

Let's try and give a realistic view candidates chances in each states.

1. Lagos state: while APC or any party Tinubu is in has always won Lagos state but there has never been a time Tinubu's party won Lagos convincingly in any presidential election. As a matter of fact, there's a hypothesis that suggest that the results that always pan out of lagos is usually rigged via overvoting for Tinubu's party, while we can't point to any evidence but it's very plausible. This time, BVAS is going to reveal a shocking result in Lagos (TRUST me). Tinubu may or may not win Lagos, if he wins, the margin will not be very wide, it has never been. His win in Lagos will be so close that it won't be relevant. I see Tinubu getting 40-45% of votes in Lagos state. Peter Obi may snatch 35-40% while Atiku will work with 10-15%.

2. Kano
Kano is the turf of kwankwaso, this is his terrain and even if he's not gonna win any state, he will win want to prove a point with kano. I see kwankwaso winning kano massively. He has this cult of followers that are domicile in the state. They see him as a god.
I can place my money on kwankwaso getting 50% of kano's vote while Tinubu and Atiku share the remaining. Tinubu might only be able to get 15-20% here, Atiku will get 20-25%, Obi will be able to get a pattry 5-10%.

3. Kaduna
Kaduna is a battle ground, very unpredictable to call. With the crises in Southern Nigeria and the religious tension in the state, this state has never given block votes to any party. Even Buhari couldn't get block votes here. I don't see Tinubu doing as much as Buhari here, however I think he will get 20-25%, Atiku and Peter Obi will also get about 20-25% each. Kwankwaso should be able to get 15%, kwankwaso is going to steal a lot of votes from APC in northern Kaduna that would have ordinarily given APC the win.

4. Rivers
This is a known PDP state, however things are changing. The governorship aspirant of APC is famous, the G-5 saga is messed PDP chances and the people of Rivers state, however the people of rivers state don't really fancy Tinubu. Their attention seems to be heavily tilted towards Peter Obi.
The obedient structure is strong here, so I see Peter Obi getting 60% of what comes out here. Atiku will get 20%, Tinubu may get 10%.

5. Katsina
Katsina is also a Close call. Kano has a lot of influence on what happens in Katsina, which means that kwankwaso is going to do well here, although it may not be enough for him to win. This is an hausa and Fulani land, I see Atiku getting the most votes of 40%, while Tinubu and Kwankwaso get 25% each. Obi may not get up to 5% here because this state is not as metropolitan as Kano.

6. Oyo state
This is a PDP state, however that won't really influence the presidential election that much. It will only influence the gubernatorial election.
It's a Yoruba state, people will vote along tribal lines however many Yorubas don't want Tinubu, many don't like APC, it means that Obi will be their option.
I see Tinubu winning this state with 50%, Obi getting 25%, Atiku would get from 10-15%.

7. Delta
This is a strong PDP state and even the vice-presidential candidate of PDP is from this state. Although they have a strong APC aspirant for governor, it's not going to play a major influence in the outcome of the presidential elections. This state is obedient, very obedient so a perceive a battle between PDP and LP.
PDP may 35%, LP may get 40% and Tinubu will get 10%

Gbam!!!!
Your analysis is fair enough, I'd agree with most of the things you wrote up there.

!

Highly unbiased analysis.
When a leader emerges, the need for secession is shelved.
Perhaps people have seen a ray of hope in the country.
They have seen that which they thought was impossible; An egalitarian society where equity and justice is actually actualizable.
Vote Peter Obi for a United Nigeria.

Fair enough but Kwankwoso might step down and 60% for Obi in South South is probably unrealistic...

Apophenia24k:
Fair enough but Kwankwoso might step down and 60% for Obi in South South is probably unrealistic...

Nope, I didn't say southsouth, I said Rivers state.

Two different things entirely.

Kwankwaso will never ste down. Passed that stage

Apophenia24k:
Fair enough but Kwankwoso might step down and 60% for Obi in South South is probably unrealistic...

He's stepping down for no one.
And even a blind man knows Obi owns South-East and South-South.

APC will get 40% in Kano. Kwankwanso is popular, but the most popular politician in Kano politics still remain Buhari. Buhari and an incumbent governor will make Tinubu get 40% from Kano.

Kwankwanso struggled to give Atiku 20% in 2019.

Again, Tinubu delivered 59% to Buhari in 2015/2019 in Lagos, Buhari will do same for him next month in kastina.

As for Kaduna, close to call between APC and PDP. but I see APC taking it.

Oyo, Tinubu will dominate it 70%

Delta, Tinubu to get 20-25%.

These people are always funny with their analysis, once they begin their analysis; major target will be to see where they can implant obi by force. Other analysis is not relevant to them until they see where obi can be fixed. Structureless LP party with no root is targeting 40% in Lagos. Joke of the century! Even PDP that has worked tirelessly in Lagos never boasts of 40%, but foreign LP to Lagos wants 40% under one year of noise making and no shi shi.

Is that how it is easy to win by mouth ? LP can't get 25% in Lagos even if all Igbo vote in Lagos which is not possible. It is over rated to think only Igbo votes in Lagos can amount to 25%, no non-indigenes can ever surpass indigene not to talk of other non-indigenes aside Igbos who will vote for Tinubu. How will obi that can't win any local government in Lagos get 25%? Obi should be concern about getting up to 90,000 votes in Lagos and 10,000 vote target in other south west states

ashacot:
APC will get 40% in Kano. Kwankwanso is popular, but the most popular politician in Kano politics still remain Buhari. Buhari and an incumbent governor will make Tinubu get 40% from Kano.

Kwankwanso struggled to give Atiku 20% in 2019.

Again, Tinubu delivered 59% to Buhari in 2015/2019, Buhari will do same for him next month.

As for Kaduna, close to call between APC and PDP. but I see APC taking it.

Oyo, Tinubu will dominate it 70%

Delta, Tinubu to get 20-25%.

dreamer

sreamsense:
These people are always funny with there analysis, once they begin their analysis; major target will be to see where they can implant obi by force. Other analysis is not relevant to them until they see where obi can be fixed. Structureless LP party with no root is targeting 40% in Lagos. Joke of the century! Even PDP that has worked tirelessly in Lagos never boasts of 40%, but foreign LP to Lagos wants 40% under one year of noise making and no shi shi.

Is that how it is easy to win by mouth ? LP can't get 25% in Lagos even if all Igbo vote in Lagos which is not possible. It is over rated to think only Igbo votes in Lagos can amount to 25%, no non-indigenes can ever surpass indigene not to talk of other non-indigenes aside Igbos who will vote for Tinubu. How will obi that can't win any local government in Lagos get 25%? Obi should be concern about getting up to 90,000 votes in Lagos and 10,000 vote target in other south west states

Bet on escrow?
LP will get more than 25% in Lagos. Are you in? 50k

FatherOfJesus:
dreamer

Una no sabi politics.

Una no even understand the mood in the country that favors southern presidency that even the northern governors in APC are working very hard to deliver.

Una eyes go soon clear.

Unbiased analysis

FatherOfJesus:

Bet on escrow?
LP will get more than 25% in Lagos. Are you in? 50k

Unfortunately, I don't engage in betting. However, if you quote my message that day as a reminder with this your moniker when obi scores 25% of votes in Lagos, I will send you N5k credit on your denomination of choice, but if he fails to get 25%, don't send me anything in return just remember I told you noise doesn't win election, just drink coca cola and join hands with Tinubu to build Nigeria instead of exhibiting hatred for another eight years of Tinubu reign

Trollronaldo:
These 7 states below are the only states with more than 3million PVC holders. In particular order:

1. Lagos
2. Kano
3. Kaduna
4. Rivers
5. Katsina
6. Oyo
7. Delta.

These states hold about 27million voter's cards, which account for about 30% of all the voter's card in circulation.

Let's try and give a realistic view candidates chances in each states.

1. Lagos state: while APC or any party Tinubu is in has always won Lagos state but there has never been a time Tinubu's party won Lagos convincingly in any presidential election. As a matter of fact, there's a hypothesis that suggest that the results that always pan out of lagos is usually rigged via overvoting for Tinubu's party, while we can't point to any evidence but it's very plausible. This time, BVAS is going to reveal a shocking result in Lagos (TRUST me). Tinubu may or may not win Lagos, if he wins, the margin will not be very wide, it has never been. His win in Lagos will be so close that it won't be relevant. I see Tinubu getting 40-45% of votes in Lagos state. Peter Obi may snatch 35-40% while Atiku will work with 10-15%.

2. Kano
Kano is the turf of kwankwaso, this is his terrain and even if he's not gonna win any state, he will win want to prove a point with kano. I see kwankwaso winning kano massively. He has this cult of followers that are domicile in the state. They see him as a god.
I can place my money on kwankwaso getting 50% of kano's vote while Tinubu and Atiku share the remaining. Tinubu might only be able to get 15-20% here, Atiku will get 20-25%, Obi will be able to get a pattry 5-10%.

3. Kaduna
Kaduna is a battle ground, very unpredictable to call. With the crises in Southern Nigeria and the religious tension in the state, this state has never given block votes to any party. Even Buhari couldn't get block votes here. I don't see Tinubu doing as much as Buhari here, however I think he will get 20-25%, Atiku and Peter Obi will also get about 20-25% each. Kwankwaso should be able to get 15%, kwankwaso is going to steal a lot of votes from APC in northern Kaduna that would have ordinarily given APC the win.

4. Rivers
This is a known PDP state, however things are changing. The governorship aspirant of APC is famous, the G-5 saga is messed PDP chances and the people of Rivers state, however the people of rivers state don't really fancy Tinubu. Their attention seems to be heavily tilted towards Peter Obi.
The obedient structure is strong here, so I see Peter Obi getting 60% of what comes out here. Atiku will get 20%, Tinubu may get 10%.

5. Katsina
Katsina is also a Close call. Kano has a lot of influence on what happens in Katsina, which means that kwankwaso is going to do well here, although it may not be enough for him to win. This is an hausa and Fulani land, I see Atiku getting the most votes of 40%, while Tinubu and Kwankwaso get 25% each. Obi may not get up to 5% here because this state is not as metropolitan as Kano.

6. Oyo state
This is a PDP state, however that won't really influence the presidential election that much. It will only influence the gubernatorial election.
It's a Yoruba state, people will vote along tribal lines however many Yorubas don't want Tinubu, many don't like APC, it means that Obi will be their option.
I see Tinubu winning this state with 50%, Obi getting 25%, Atiku would get from 10-15%.

7. Delta
This is a strong PDP state and even the vice-presidential candidate of PDP is from this state. Although they have a strong APC aspirant for governor, it's not going to play a major influence in the outcome of the presidential elections. This state is obedient, very obedient so a perceive a battle between PDP and LP.
PDP may 35%, LP may get 40% and Tinubu will get 10%

Buhari got 1.127million votes amounting to 69.72% in kaduna in 2015.

Yet you said Buhari has never gotten bloc votes in kaduna?

Obi will not see 25perc in any south west state. He'll not see 25perc in kaduna. PDP will win Delta State. Forget all these empty noise you guys are making on social media. With all those naming ceremony rallies I'm seeing everywhere across Nigeria? You think this is SUG election? Nonsense!

All those states has large population of Igbos with PVCs.

sreamsense:
These people are always funny with their analysis, once they begin their analysis; major target will be to see where they can implant obi by force. Other analysis is not relevant to them until they see where obi can be fixed. Structureless LP party with no root is targeting 40% in Lagos. Joke of the century! Even PDP that has worked tirelessly in Lagos never boasts of 40%, but foreign LP to Lagos wants 40% under one year of noise making and no shi shi.

Is that how it is easy to win by mouth ? LP can't get 25% in Lagos even if all Igbo vote in Lagos which is not possible. It is over rated to think only Igbo votes in Lagos can amount to 25%, no non-indigenes can ever surpass indigene not to talk of other non-indigenes aside Igbos who will vote for Tinubu. How will obi that can't win any local government in Lagos get 25%? Obi should be concern about getting up to 90,000 votes in Lagos and 10,000 vote target in other south west states

Normally zombiediots are delusional clowns

sreamsense:

Unfortunately, I don't engage in betting. However, if you quote my message that day as a reminder with this your moniker when obi scores 25% of votes in Lagos, I will send you N5k credit on your denomination of choice, but if he fails to get 25%, don't send me anything in return just remember I told you noise doesn't win election, just drink coca cola and join hands with Tinubu to build Nigeria instead of exhibiting hatred for another eight years of Tinubu reign

get lost abeg. I need money

Trollronaldo:
These 7 states below are the only states

I can place my money on kwankwaso getting 50% of kano's vote while Tinubu and Atiku share the remaining. Tinubu might only be able to get 15-20% here, Atiku will get 20-25%, Obi will be able to get a pattry 5-10%.

PETER OBI AND RABIU KWANKWASO ARE BOTH WORKING FOR ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU TO ENSURE HIS VICTORY.

THE GAME PLAN IS, A VOTE FOR PETER OBI IS A VOTE FOR TINUBU, THE SAME APPLIES TO KWANKWASO. BOTH ARE OUT THERE TO WRECK PDP AND GIVE APC MAXIMUM VICTORY, ENSURING ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU BUHARI'S SUCCESSOR. AFTER PETER OBI AND RABIU KWANKWASO MUST HAVE FINISHED TEARING PDP TO SHREDS IN THIS COMING ELECTION. SIMPLE COMMON SENSE WILL RETURN TO SOME DELUDED FOLKS.


KingOfAmebo[/b]

I am willing to take on this bet foe every 50K I bet 100K against it.

Peter obi will not get 20% of Bola Tinubu vote in Lagos n he will come a distant 3rd to Bola n Atiku.


Mydd44 Seun please we need you people to help be in charge of all this money you are making me to lose.

FatherOfJesus:

Bet on escrow?
LP will get more than 25% in Lagos. Are you in? 50k

Softmirror:



PETER OBI AND RABIU KWANKWASO ARE BOTH WORKING FOR ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU TO ENSURE HIS VICTORY.

THE GAME PLAN IS, A VOTE FOR PETER OBI IS A VOTE FOR TINUBU, THE SAME APPLIES TO KWANKWASO. BOTH ARE OUT THERE TO WRECK PDP AND GIVE APC MAXIMUM VICTORY, ENSURING ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU BUHARI'S SUCCESSOR. AFTER PETER OBI AND RABIU KWANKWASO MUST HAVE FINISHED TEARING PDP TO SHREDS IN THIS COMING ELECTION. SIMPLE COMMON SENSE WILL RETURN TO SOME DELUDED FOLKS.


KingOfAmebo[/b]

Your level of senselessness is legendary, Your sense didn't tell you all votes will be divided into four as against three as it was in 2019, Even if you subtract Obi and Kwankwaso's votes from the total votes what will still be left will be shared between Tinubu and Atiku, it's not like INEC will dash Tnubu or Atiku any votes meant for Peter Obi or Kwankwaso. Una no just get sense....

sreamsense:
These people are always funny with their analysis, once they begin their analysis; major target will be to see where they can implant obi by force. Other analysis is not relevant to them until they see where obi can be fixed. Structureless LP party with no root is targeting 40% in Lagos. Joke of the century! Even PDP that has worked tirelessly in Lagos never boasts of 40%, but foreign LP to Lagos wants 40% under one year of noise making and no shi shi.

Is that how it is easy to win by mouth ? LP can't get 25% in Lagos even if all Igbo vote in Lagos which is not possible. It is over rated to think only Igbo votes in Lagos can amount to 25%, no non-indigenes can ever surpass indigene not to talk of other non-indigenes aside Igbos who will vote for Tinubu. How will obi that can't win any local government in Lagos get 25%? Obi should be concern about getting up to 90,000 votes in Lagos and 10,000 vote target in other south west states

see this urchin spitting saliva all over the thread. You must be obidient by force come February.

Superwave16320:
I am willing to take on this bet foe every 50K I bet 100K against it.

Peter obi will not get 20% of Bola Tinubu vote in Lagos n he will come a distant 3rd to Bola n Atiku.


Mydd44 Seun please we need you people to help be in charge of all this money you are making me to lose.

great finally, someone with guts.
Open an escrow account here https://www.escrow.com/what-is-escrow

They will hold the money for us and deliver it to the account of the winner automatically. Let me know when you open it so we can proceed with payments.

KingOfAmebo:


Your level of your senselessness is legendary, Your sense didn't tell you all votes will be divided into four as against three as it was in 2019, Even if you subtract Obi and Kwankwaso's votes from the total votes what will still be lleft will be shared between Tinubu and Atiku, it's not like INEC will dash Tnubu or Atiku any votes meant for Peter Obi or Kwankwaso. Una no just get sense....

ALL APC VOTES REMAIN INTACT JUST LIKE THERE ARE NO CRACKS IN THE RANKS OF APC GOVERNORS SUPPORTING ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU. ONLY THE PDP VOTES OF 2019 WILL BE DIVIDED BY ATIKU'S FORMER RUNNING MATE OF PDP BUT NOW LABOUR PARTY, MR PETER OBI. THE SAME APPLIES TO KWANKWASO. IT'S SIMPLE COMMON SENSE. BUT MOST OF YOU ARE LIVING IN SELF DECEPTION..

Trollronaldo:
Nope, I didn't say southsouth, I said Rivers state.

Two different things entirely.

Kwankwaso will never ste down. Passed that stage

Why are you replying him?

Are you saying Peter Obi cannot get 60% of Southsouth votes?

sreamsense:
These people are always funny with their analysis, once they begin their analysis; major target will be to see where they can implant obi by force. Other analysis is not relevant to them until they see where obi can be fixed. Structureless LP party with no root is targeting 40% in Lagos. Joke of the century! Even PDP that has worked tirelessly in Lagos never boasts of 40%, but foreign LP to Lagos wants 40% under one year of noise making and no shi shi.

Is that how it is easy to win by mouth ? LP can't get 25% in Lagos even if all Igbo vote in Lagos which is not possible. It is over rated to think only Igbo votes in Lagos can amount to 25%, no non-indigenes can ever surpass indigene not to talk of other non-indigenes aside Igbos who will vote for Tinubu. How will obi that can't win any local government in Lagos get 25%? Obi should be concern about getting up to 90,000 votes in Lagos and 10,000 vote target in other south west states

It is not only Igbos in Lagos that are voting Peter Obi. I see 80 to 90% of Christians in Lagos from North, East, West and South voting for Peter Obi. Thank you.

I don't think Obi will win Lagos but he will get atleast 25%

FreedomfromtheT:
It is not only Igbos in Lagos that are voting Peter Obi. I see 80 to 90% of Christians in Lagos from North, East, West and South voting for Peter Obi. Thank you.

Keep dreaming, how sure are you? Who is telling you it is a Christian project? Your eyes will soon be cleared on 25th Feb, you are making assumption that is too far from reality

Softmirror:


ALL APC VOTES REMAIN INTACT JUST LIKE THERE ARE NO CRACKS IN THE RANKS OF APC GOVERNORS SUPPORTING ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU. ONLY THE PDP VOTES OF 2019 WILL BE DIVIDED BY ATIKU'S FORMER RUNNING MATE OF PDP BUT NOW LABOUR PARTY, MR PETER OBI. THE SAME APPLIES TO KWANKWASO. IT'S SIMPLE COMMON SENSE. BUT MOST OF YOU ARE LIVING IN SELF DECEPTION..

What about the APC members defecting to PDP in millions? Their votes remain intact abi? You need brain surgery....

He

sreamsense:

Keep dreaming, how sure are you? Who is telling you it is a Christian project? Your eyes will soon be cleared on 25th Feb, you are making assumption that is too far from reality

Whether you like it or not, a lot of non Igbos in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria are voting Peter Obi. Thank you.

Trollronaldo:
These 7 states below are the only states with more than 3million PVC holders. In particular order:

1. Lagos
2. Kano
3. Kaduna
4. Rivers
5. Katsina
6. Oyo
7. Delta.

These states hold about 27million voter's cards, which account for about 30% of all the voter's card in circulation.

Let's try and give a realistic view candidates chances in each states.

1. Lagos state: while APC or any party Tinubu is in has always won Lagos state but there has never been a time Tinubu's party won Lagos convincingly in any presidential election. As a matter of fact, there's a hypothesis that suggest that the results that always pan out of lagos is usually rigged via overvoting for Tinubu's party, while we can't point to any evidence but it's very plausible. This time, BVAS is going to reveal a shocking result in Lagos (TRUST me). Tinubu may or may not win Lagos, if he wins, the margin will not be very wide, it has never been. His win in Lagos will be so close that it won't be relevant. I see Tinubu getting 40-45% of votes in Lagos state. Peter Obi may snatch 35-40% while Atiku will work with 10-15%.

2. Kano
Kano is the turf of kwankwaso, this is his terrain and even if he's not gonna win any state, he will win want to prove a point with kano. I see kwankwaso winning kano massively. He has this cult of followers that are domicile in the state. They see him as a god.
I can place my money on kwankwaso getting 50% of kano's vote while Tinubu and Atiku share the remaining. Tinubu might only be able to get 15-20% here, Atiku will get 20-25%, Obi will be able to get a pattry 5-10%.

3. Kaduna
Kaduna is a battle ground, very unpredictable to call. With the crises in Southern Nigeria and the religious tension in the state, this state has never given block votes to any party. Even Buhari couldn't get block votes here. I don't see Tinubu doing as much as Buhari here, however I think he will get 20-25%, Atiku and Peter Obi will also get about 20-25% each. Kwankwaso should be able to get 15%, kwankwaso is going to steal a lot of votes from APC in northern Kaduna that would have ordinarily given APC the win.

4. Rivers
This is a known PDP state, however things are changing. The governorship aspirant of APC is famous, the G-5 saga is messed PDP chances and the people of Rivers state, however the people of rivers state don't really fancy Tinubu. Their attention seems to be heavily tilted towards Peter Obi.
The obedient structure is strong here, so I see Peter Obi getting 60% of what comes out here. Atiku will get 20%, Tinubu may get 10%.

5. Katsina
Katsina is also a Close call. Kano has a lot of influence on what happens in Katsina, which means that kwankwaso is going to do well here, although it may not be enough for him to win. This is an hausa and Fulani land, I see Atiku getting the most votes of 40%, while Tinubu and Kwankwaso get 25% each. Obi may not get up to 5% here because this state is not as metropolitan as Kano.

6. Oyo state
This is a PDP state, however that won't really influence the presidential election that much. It will only influence the gubernatorial election.
It's a Yoruba state, people will vote along tribal lines however many Yorubas don't want Tinubu, many don't like APC, it means that Obi will be their option.
I see Tinubu winning this state with 50%, Obi getting 25%, Atiku would get from 10-15%.

7. Delta
This is a strong PDP state and even the vice-presidential candidate of PDP is from this state. Although they have a strong APC aspirant for governor, it's not going to play a major influence in the outcome of the presidential elections. This state is obedient, very obedient so a perceive a battle between PDP and LP.
PDP may 35%, LP may get 40% and Tinubu will get 10%

Most incoherent analysis I’ve seen on Nairaland

ashacot:


Una no sabi politics.

Una no even understand the mood in the country that favors southern presidency that even the northern governors in APC are working very hard to deliver.

Una eyes go soon clear.

And u don't know the mood against APC coz of the hardship, suffering and hunger in Nigeria.
U don't know the mood against a Muslim-muslim ticket in a country made up of both Christians nd Muslims.
U don't know the mood against electing an old man again after what we passed through with Buhari.
I Sha won't talk much till the results starts creeping in.
U really need to leave ur safe zone and ask around so u will see how people see both the candidate u re supporting and his party too

Without doubt I know this is com8ng from one of the Nyamiri dumbass

Poor and unreliable analysis