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How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out - Politics - Nairaland

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How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by MrPresident1: 12:26pm On Jan 21, 2023
None of the candidates especially the three frontline ones, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Alhaji Bola Tinibu or Mr Peter Obi will secure the spread to win the elections outright, that is, none of them will secure 25% of the votes in at least two thirds of the 36 states so there will be a runoff. Alhaji Tinibu will not secure outright victory because the votes and the spread in the northwest will be split between him, Alhaji Atiku and Alhaji Kwankwanso.

Alhaji Tinibu's votes in the NW will be split because of mutual mistrust between the Yoruba nation and the Fulani (story of Afonja, Awolowo, Abiola) but he will have majority total votes nationwide because of block votes from the Southwest

In the first ballot, Alhaji Bola Tinibu of APC will come first, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of PDP will come second and Mr Peter Obi of LP will come third

The runnof will be between Alhaji Tinibu and Alhaji Atiku, and the Igbo nation will become the beautiful maiden to be courted by both parties.

By historical antecedents, the Igbo nation (1960, 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999) have always aligned with the North. Alhaji Atiku will promise Igbo Presidency after doing only one term. He also apparently has a better balanced ticket in the eyes of the Igbo nation having a Christian, and an Ifeanyi as vice and the Igbo nation is majority Christian.

The Igbo nation will not trust the Yoruba nation's proposal because of the historical rivalry between both nations (civil war, 20pounds, notions of betrayals). Also, the Kanuri nation will definitely want the Presidency after Alhaji Tinubu's either 1 term of four years, assuming he also promises Igbo Presidency after 4years, or, after eight years completing his constitutionally allowed maximum of two terms and power has to shift to the North. The Kanuri Nation will most likely not allow Alhaji Tinibu to promise 1 term as it will affect their own chances of getting the Presidency.

To the Kanuri nation, the prospects of doing 8years as VP and another 8years as President will be too juicy to be allowed to fail, the reason is the Kanuri nation will not allow the Fulani to take over when its the North's turn once again as both of them are well matched and equal rivals in the North, also sharing mutual mistrust for each other. So, realistically speaking, the Kanuri nation will not allow Alhaji Tinibu to pledge only one term.

In the final analysis, The Igbo nation will pledge their votes to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and in the runnoff, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will win the elections, thus sealing the Fulani as the Master tribe in Nigeria

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Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Pauldollars(m): 12:26pm On Jan 21, 2023
MrPresident1:


Jonathan did not win most core Northern States in 2011, but still won the Presidential Election.

The winner of 2023 General Elections will be whoever has the highest number of votes.

19 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by naIraiaND: 12:28pm On Jan 21, 2023
MrPresident1:


Nice movie. What's the title?


πŸ‘πŸ‘

5 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by MrPresident1: 12:31pm On Jan 21, 2023
NairaIand:


Nice movie. What's the title?

Nigerian Presidential Elections 2023 grin

Na the name of the film be that
Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Qtrpst4: 12:33pm On Jan 21, 2023
Stop abusing drugs

3 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by olayinks007(m): 12:48pm On Jan 21, 2023
Change ur Plug padi. Cos this ur Vision Lasan. cheesy
But Election go get as e be oo truly God spare our lives. God bless Nigeria

1 Like

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by FreedomfromtheT: 12:58pm On Jan 21, 2023
Pauldollars:


Jonathan did not win most core Northern States in 2011, but still won the Presidential Election.

The winner of 2023 General Elections will be whoever has the highest number of votes.
I think the 2023 presidential election is likely to be more religious than regional or ethnic.
Peter Obi is the only Christian among the three or four major contenders.
I see him winning at first ballot.

6 Likes 1 Share

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by MrPresident1: 12:59pm On Jan 21, 2023
Lalasticlala, Seun frontpage
Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Mynd44: 1:00pm On Jan 21, 2023
Lets get this straight.

Atiku and Tinubu will get the required spread

7 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by MrPresident1: 1:01pm On Jan 21, 2023
Mynd44:
Lets get this straight.

Atiku and Tinubu will get the required spread

Please put on FP let's see the debate
Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by ImperialYoruba: 1:53pm On Jan 21, 2023
Logistically, INEC must prepare for election runoff, it does that as a default, and not because of present situation with the leading candidates.

Tinubu is not a lightweight politician, he has experience and knowledge in what he would need to secure the mandatory requirements to win in the first run and avoid a runoff few days later.

Political analysts see him as the most favored to win. This projection is shifting the landscape as we speak. SDP already announced they will enter alliance with APC. NNPP made statement in Chatham they are looking for alliance that will uplift their value. G5 is delaying announcement but they already hinted to go with APC.

Certain name-recognition politicians will soon begin to shift and publicly declare for APC. It is a rollcall, happens every four years for these political pan handlers. They are influencers, where they go a multitude fans go with them.

The structure is working in favor of tinubu, then popularity is also working in his favor. Forget run off, he will beat Atiku in North.

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Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by 2elliot: 2:06pm On Jan 21, 2023
ImperialYoruba:
Logistically, INEC must prepare for election runoff, it does that as a default, and not because of present situation with the leading candidates.

Tinubu is not a lightweight politician, he has experience and knowledge in what he would need to secure the mandatory requirements to win in the first run and avoid a runoff few days later.

Political analysts see him as the most favored to win. This projection is shifting the landscape as we speak. SDP already announced they will enter alliance with APC. NNPP made statement in Chatham they are looking for alliance that will uplift their value. G5 is delaying announcement but they already hinted to go with APC.

Certain name-recognition politicians will soon begin to shift and publicly declare for APC. It is a rollcall, happens every four years for these political pan handlers. They are influencers, where they go a multitude fans go with them.

The structure is working in favor of tinubu, then popularity is also working in his favor. Forget run off, he will beat Atiku in North.
Bayelsans did it with David Lyon. Even though Bayelsans were largely in love with PDP and hated APC, we still voted for Lyon and he won roundly by popular vote. Sane Nigerians will vote beyond ethnic and religious lines this time, and since we are the majority, Obi will win.

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Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by MrPresident1: 5:24pm On Jan 21, 2023
2elliot:
Bayelsans did it with David Lyon. Even though Bayelsans were largely in love with PDP and hated APC, we still voted for Lyon and he won roundly by popular vote. Sane Nigerians will vote beyond ethnic and religious lines this time, and since we are the majority, Obi will win.

Obi will likely come third

3 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by MrPresident1: 5:32pm On Jan 21, 2023
Working on a very simple template of the number of States that each party presently control, and having the criterion of 25% of two-thirds of the 36 states, APC presently control 21States, PDP 14 States and APGA 1 state, it just may work out that none of the candidates will secure the spread to achieve victory at the first ballot.
Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by bender79: 5:37pm On Jan 21, 2023
ImperialYoruba:
Logistically, INEC must prepare for election runoff, it does that as a default, and not because of present situation with the leading candidates.

Tinubu is not a lightweight politician, he has experience and knowledge in what he would need to secure the mandatory requirements to win in the first run and avoid a runoff few days later. Oga shift one side with your talk. Everytime Tinubu is experienced meanwhile his working very hard because what he anticipated is not what his seeing

Political analysts see him as the most favored to win. This projection is shifting the landscape as we speak. SDP already announced they will enter alliance with APC. NNPP made statement in Chatham they are looking for alliance that will uplift their value. G5 is delaying announcement but they already hinted to go with APC.

Certain name-recognition politicians will soon begin to shift and publicly declare for APC. It is a rollcall, happens every four years for these political pan handlers. They are influencers, where they go a multitude fans go with them.

The structure is working in favor of tinubu, then popularity is also working in his favor. Forget run off, he will beat Atiku in North.
Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Polchiz(m): 5:41pm On Jan 21, 2023
MrPresident1:
None of the candidates especially the three frontline ones, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Alhaji Bola Tinibu or Mr Peter Obi will secure the spread to win the elections outright, that is, none of them will secure 25% of the votes in at least two thirds of the 36 states so there will be a runoff. Alhaji Tinibu will not secure outright victory because the votes and the spread in the northwest will be split between him, Alhaji Atiku and Alhaji Kwankwanso.

Alhaji Tinibu's votes in the NW will be split because of mutual mistrust between the Yoruba nation and the Fulani (story of Afonja, Awolowo, Abiola) but he will have majority total votes nationwide because of block votes from the Southwest

In the first ballot, Alhaji Bola Tinibu of APC will come first, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of PDP will come second and Mr Peter Obi of LP will come third

The runnof will be between Alhaji Tinibu and Alhaji Atiku, and the Igbo nation will become the beautiful maiden to be courted by both parties.

By historical antecedents, the Igbo nation (1960, 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999) have always aligned with the North. Alhaji Atiku will promise Igbo Presidency after doing only one term. He also apparently has a better balanced ticket in the eyes of the Igbo nation having a Christian, and an Ifeanyi as vice and the Igbo nation is majority Christian.

The Igbo nation will not trust the Yoruba nation's proposal because of the historical rivalry between both nations (civil war, 20pounds, notions of betrayals). Also, the Kanuri nation will definitely want the Presidency after Alhaji Tinubu's either 1 term of four years, assuming he also promises Igbo Presidency after 4years, or, after eight years completing his constitutionally allowed maximum of two terms and power has to shift to the North. The Kanuri Nation will most likely not allow Alhaji Tinibu to promise 1 term as it will affect their own chances of getting the Presidency.

To the Kanuri nation, the prospects of doing 8years as VP and another 8years as President will be too juicy to allow to fail, the reason is the Kanuri nation will not allow the Fulani to take over when its the North's turn once again as both of them are well matched and equal rivals in the North, also sharing mutual mistrust for each other. So, realistically speaking, the Kanuri nation will not allow Alhaji Tinibu to pledge only one term.

In the final analysis, The Igbo nation will pledge their votes to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and in the runnoff, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will win the elections, thus sealing the Fulani as the Master tribe in Nigeria
This is the lies you tell Tinubu and he continues to waste his money.

Tell him the truth so that he can save some money, otherwise he will demand for 80% of Lagos IGR after the election.
Lagos debt is about 1 trillion now.

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Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Polchiz(m): 5:43pm On Jan 21, 2023
MrPresident1:
Working on a very simple template of the number of States that each party presently control, and having the criterion of 25% of two-thirds of the 36 states, APC presently control 21States, PDP 14 States and APGA 1 state, it just may work out that none of the candidates will secure the spread to achieve victory at the first ballot.
What is your idea of control?
You think APC will do well in Ebonyi and Imo state simply because the governors are in APC?
You think a Tinibu will win Kano, Katsina and Kaduna because tge governors are in APC?
Is that how you reason?

15 Likes 3 Shares

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Polchiz(m): 5:46pm On Jan 21, 2023
ImperialYoruba:
Logistically, INEC must prepare for election runoff, it does that as a default, and not because of present situation with the leading candidates.

Tinubu is not a lightweight politician, he has experience and knowledge in what he would need to secure the mandatory requirements to win in the first run and avoid a runoff few days later.

Political analysts see him as the most favored to win. This projection is shifting the landscape as we speak. SDP already announced they will enter alliance with APC. NNPP made statement in Chatham they are looking for alliance that will uplift their value. G5 is delaying announcement but they already hinted to go with APC.

Certain name-recognition politicians will soon begin to shift and publicly declare for APC. It is a rollcall, happens every four years for these political pan handlers. They are influencers, where they go a multitude fans go with them.

The structure is working in favor of tinubu, then popularity is also working in his favor. Forget run off, he will beat Atiku in North.
You mean he will win SW?
Tinubu is not winning in any state except SW + Kwara and Kogi State.
Kwankwaso and Atiku are in the race or you guys are dreaming?

2 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by ImperialYoruba: 6:37pm On Jan 21, 2023
Polchiz:

You mean he will win SW?
Tinubu is not winning in any state except SW + Kwara and Kogi State.
Kwankwaso and Atiku are in the race or you guys are dreaming?

Keankwaso stated in Chatham he is looking for an uplifting alliance that will take his party to next level of political power. Twice he has referred to Obi as a trader and a liability for alliance. This means he can only go two ways, to Tinubu or to Atiku. He was caught hinting in Kano that he will resolve differences with Ganduje if only the governor will be open to powersharing. This is revealing of where Kwankwaso is facing for his next step.

SDP also has already declared to public that they will align with APC. So you are not wrong in saying Tinubu will win 8 states as it currently stands. He is also favored to bring in majority votes nationwide. So going by your own post, Tinubu only need 25% threshold in 16 more states. This is far ahead of struggling to meet that threshold in 24 states.

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Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Polchiz(m): 6:45pm On Jan 21, 2023
ImperialYoruba:


Keankwaso stated in Chatham he is looking for an uplifting alliance that will take his party to next level of political power. Twice he has referred to Obi as a trader and a liability for alliance. This means he can only go two ways, to Tinubu or to Atiku. He was caught hinting in Kano that he will resolve differences with Ganduje if only the governor will be open to powersharing. This is revealing of where Kwankwaso is facing for his next step.

SDP also has already declared to public that they will align with APC. So you are not wrong in saying Tinubu will win 8 states as it currently stands. He is also favored to bring in majority votes nationwide. So going by your own post, Tinubu only need 25% threshold in 16 more states. This is far ahead of struggling to meet that threshold in 24 states.
Calling Obi a trader is out of envy.

What is delaying the alliance with APC?
Election is coming in few days and Kwankwaso is campaigning aggressively in NW.

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Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Polchiz(m): 6:50pm On Jan 21, 2023
ImperialYoruba:


Keankwaso stated in Chatham he is looking for an uplifting alliance that will take his party to next level of political power. Twice he has referred to Obi as a trader and a liability for alliance. This means he can only go two ways, to Tinubu or to Atiku. He was caught hinting in Kano that he will resolve differences with Ganduje if only the governor will be open to powersharing. This is revealing of where Kwankwaso is facing for his next step.

SDP also has already declared to public that they will align with APC. So you are not wrong in saying Tinubu will win 8 states as it currently stands. He is also favored to bring in majority votes nationwide. So going by your own post, Tinubu only need 25% threshold in 16 more states. This is far ahead of struggling to meet that threshold in 24 states.
Bros, from analysis, Obi is the candidate with majority votes.
Obi has 11 states in his pocket already.
He is sure of 25% in SW.
He is also winning Benue, Plateau & FCT. 25% is sure of 25% in Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Taraba and Kaduna.
Tinubu will most likely get the national spread but honestly, he us not getting the majority votes.

Atiku and Kwankwaso should be blamed for this.
If I were Tinubu, I will save my money and hope for the worst.

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Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by ImperialYoruba: 10:13pm On Jan 21, 2023
Polchiz:

Bros, from analysis, Obi is the candidate with majority votes.
Obi has 11 states in his pocket already.
He is sure of 25% in SW.
He is also winning Benue, Plateau & FCT. 25% is sure of 25% in Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Taraba and Kaduna.
Tinubu will most likely get the national spread but honestly, he us not getting the majority votes.

Atiku and Kwankwaso should be blamed for this.
If I were Tinubu, I will save my money and hope for the worst.

Obi has majority noise, this does not translate to votes. Obi would not get 10% of SW votes. Who is going to allow Obi take his state, is it Sanwo, Dapo, Makinde, Oyebanji, Adeleke or Akeredolu?

6 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by MrPresident1: 10:13pm On Jan 21, 2023
Polchiz:

What is your idea of control?
You think APC will do well in Ebonyi and Imo state simply because the governors are in APC?
You think a Tinibu will win Kano, Katsina and Kaduna because tge governors are in APC?
Is that how you reason?

Apparently you did not read the opening post, you wouldn't be asking questions the come out of faulty reasoning. Go over the opening post again
Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Chuksaluta(m): 10:19pm On Jan 21, 2023
MrPresident1:
None of the candidates especially the three frontline ones, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Alhaji Bola Tinibu or Mr Peter Obi will secure the spread to win the elections outright, that is, none of them will secure 25% of the votes in at least two thirds of the 36 states so there will be a runoff. Alhaji Tinibu will not secure outright victory because the votes and the spread in the northwest will be split between him, Alhaji Atiku and Alhaji Kwankwanso.

Alhaji Tinibu's votes in the NW will be split because of mutual mistrust between the Yoruba nation and the Fulani (story of Afonja, Awolowo, Abiola) but he will have majority total votes nationwide because of block votes from the Southwest

In the first ballot, Alhaji Bola Tinibu of APC will come first, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of PDP will come second and Mr Peter Obi of LP will come third

The runnof will be between Alhaji Tinibu and Alhaji Atiku, and the Igbo nation will become the beautiful maiden to be courted by both parties.

By historical antecedents, the Igbo nation (1960, 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999) have always aligned with the North. Alhaji Atiku will promise Igbo Presidency after doing only one term. He also apparently has a better balanced ticket in the eyes of the Igbo nation having a Christian, and an Ifeanyi as vice and the Igbo nation is majority Christian.

The Igbo nation will not trust the Yoruba nation's proposal because of the historical rivalry between both nations (civil war, 20pounds, notions of betrayals). Also, the Kanuri nation will definitely want the Presidency after Alhaji Tinubu's either 1 term of four years, assuming he also promises Igbo Presidency after 4years, or, after eight years completing his constitutionally allowed maximum of two terms and power has to shift to the North. The Kanuri Nation will most likely not allow Alhaji Tinibu to promise 1 term as it will affect their own chances of getting the Presidency.

To the Kanuri nation, the prospects of doing 8years as VP and another 8years as President will be too juicy to allow to fail, the reason is the Kanuri nation will not allow the Fulani to take over when its the North's turn once again as both of them are well matched and equal rivals in the North, also sharing mutual mistrust for each other. So, realistically speaking, the Kanuri nation will not allow Alhaji Tinibu to pledge only one term.

In the final analysis, The Igbo nation will pledge their votes to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and in the runnoff, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will win the elections, thus sealing the Fulani as the Master tribe in Nigeria

You don't have an idea of who goes for a run off. The first person with the highest vote count, then second person will have won the highest states. Obi will win more states than Atiku.

2 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by zabson(m): 10:25pm On Jan 21, 2023
Polchiz:

Bros, from analysis, Obi is the candidate with majority votes.
Obi has 11 states in his pocket already.
He is sure of 25% in SW.
He is also winning Benue, Plateau & FCT. 25% is sure of 25% in Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Taraba and Kaduna.
Tinubu will most likely get the national spread but honestly, he us not getting the majority votes.

Atiku and Kwankwaso should be blamed for this.
If I were Tinubu, I will save my money and hope for the worst.

You're delusional grin even obi will not believe he's got a chance. Continue deceiving yourselves

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Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by MrPresident1: 10:38pm On Jan 21, 2023
Chuksaluta:


You don't have an idea of who goes for a run off. The first person with the highest vote count, then second person will have won the highest states. Obi will win more states than Atiku.

It is going to be very difficult for Obi to win more states than Atiku. PDP already controls 14 states while LP controls none

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Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by sapele914(m): 11:01pm On Jan 21, 2023
Polchiz:

What is your idea of control?
You think APC will do well in Ebonyi and Imo state simply because the governors are in APC?
You think a Tinibu will win Kano, Katsina and Kaduna because tge governors are in APC?
Is that how you reason?
Only wishful thinkers like yourself without any party structure are not aware that all politics is local.

Peter Obi will win the election, mind you we are yet to see Peter Obi campaign along side with any other contestants from the Labor Party?

One foolish idiot is telling the Zombidients that him alone without political party members will change a nation of over 200 million negroes?

And the ipobians turned Obidients sheepishly believe?

3 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Zelenskyy(m): 11:05pm On Jan 21, 2023
Atiku Abubakar will win the upcoming General Elections at the first ballot..

One touch..... No Run off
Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by mycar: 11:11pm On Jan 21, 2023
febuary is not far again
Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Winnersunited: 11:36pm On Jan 21, 2023
sapele914:
Only wishful thinkers like yourself without any party structure are not aware that all politics is local.

Peter Obi will win the election, mind you we are yet to see Peter Obi campaign along side with any other contestants from the Labor Party?

One foolish idiot is telling the Zombidients that him alone without political party members will change a nation of over 200 million negroes?

And the ipobians turned Obidients sheepishly believe?
Insults insults everywhere. You can make your inputs without insulting others. It will make you a better person.

1 Like

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Zelenskyy(m): 11:44pm On Jan 21, 2023
Chuksaluta:


You don't have an idea of who goes for a run off. The first person with the highest vote count, then second person will have won the highest states.

Obi will win more states than Atiku.
Yen Yen Yen Yen Yen

See your face...

Obi will win more states than Atiku in your dreams

You think say politics is all about Online Gra Gra

Even the South East is still not sure for Obi...

Igbo people have not fully rallied behind Peter Obi and they are expecting non Igbos to rally round Obi ?

Chuks.... You better Wake up from your dreams and face the reality on ground..

Which is...

Peter Obi is going nowhere near the Presidency.

3 Likes

Re: How The 2023 Presidential Elections May Likely Play Out by Zelenskyy(m): 12:02am On Jan 22, 2023
Polchiz:


Obi has 11 states in his pocket already.


See your face

Peter Obi has 11 states in his pocket already

And the remaining 25 States in his Black Boxers short

And if they ask you to list the 11 states in his pocket, I know you will mention Delta State as one of the state.

Nor worry..

February 25 is not far again...

You and your likes will know that there are no polling stations Online..

2 Likes

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