Base on the ongoing political campaigns and rallies, here is my assessment so far on the coming presidential polls,
Tinubu chances of winning is 40%
Atiku chances of winning is 30%
Obi chances of winning is 30%
Chances of winning are likely to change, base on the defensive and offensive approach on subsequent campaigns and strategies of these candidates and policies of the government, Tinubu chances went down from 65% to 40% because of the CBN policy of naira redesign and lack of the notes in circulations, this gave Tinubu a massive set back, (kudos to the cabals on that) this set back gave Atiku a 10% additional chances and gave Peter Obi 15% chances.
Here is the deal, any of the candidates that can pull the west polls will wins this coming election, the jackpot polls are in the west not in the North as expected, The northern polls has been distributed and allocated among the nothern titans which are the political backbone in PDP and APC, I didn't see Peter Obi pulling nothing more than 12% of Northern polls, while the Eastern polls is not a guaranteed polls for any of these candidates because of the low turnover in voter'sregistration and collections of PVC, plus the crisis of the unknown gunmen, this will affect voting exercise in the East.
Meanwhile Tinubu cannot boast of majority of the western polls anymore because the cabals is on his neck sabotaging every of his plan, Tinubu has a good plan of rigging the western polls to his favour but unfortunately the plans are known to the cabals, last week Buhari transferred the commissioner of police in Lagos and Ogun state respectively and replaced them with those who can dance to the tune of the cabals, this is a big fu*k up to the Tinubu's plan and this could become a big chance for Obi or Atiku to get more chances, if they know their onions well enough. Let's not forget that the South polls that supposed to go for Atiku is now going for Obi and the north centre polls is definitely going to PDP of Mr Atiku, still yet Tinubu has overall chances for now, although anything can still change and chances of winning percentages are likely to change before the election day.

Let's be honest, Atiku is about 60 percentage

Tinubu 40
Obi 35
Kwankwaso 5
Sowore 0.2

E actually no sure for anybody.

Unlike in the past where you already have a very sure grasp of the perceived winner.

This 1? 🤔

The difference between SE 10M voters and SW 12 M voters with PVC collected is SE 10M is not diluted
SW 12 M voters only Lagos has about 7M there and it’s diluted with at least 2.5M from SE, 1M from SS and 800k from NC, NE, NW

This election the North is even predicted to have voters apathy

First there is 3 options
Your brother = Kwankwanso
Your cousin = Atiku
Your business partner = Tinubu

So they don’t want to betray anyone

They prefer not to vote

That’s what even happened in SE for 2019 Election

Even tho Peter Obi was on the ballot they still felt it’s a Fulani Man that’s going to rule

Now their own son and the only way to Presidency and you still believe low turn out


I laugh at your write up

Everyone has equal chance here except Tinubu without sure base in SW Lagos makeup 50% vote & BAT is not sure winning it