Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis - Politics - Nairaland
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| Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Deprofessional(m): 12:21pm On Feb 01, 2023 |
I have made a detailed analysis of the recent poll conducted by Bantupage. The result of the poll is revealing and may mark a turning point in what we have hitherto known as predictable Nigerian politics. While LP is largely unknown in NE and NW, the votes garnered by the party in SE and SS dwarfs the votes obtained by APC and PDP taken separately. Obi's votes in SE, SS, SW and NC dwarfs all the votes garnered by APC in all regions and PDP in all regions not collectively but separately. LP may not have the required 25% in 24 states but will likely pool the highest number of votes in the event that no candidate steps down for the other. NNPP was not included in the analysis because it is not a force to recon with. This analysis has calculated the number of votes each candidate/party will get if there is a 100% voter turnout. See the attached document for my analysis
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| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by onez: 1:04pm On Feb 01, 2023 |
See below
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| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by BlazinGlory40: 1:07pm On Feb 01, 2023 |
Deprofessional: You people will go to some areas you know Obi won’t do well and poll them instead of having even distribution especially in some NE states and then you will come here and tell us Obi won’t get 25% in 24 states. Una well done oh! |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Apophenia24k: 1:13pm On Feb 01, 2023 |
The major problem here is NC, can Obi get that high number there? Well, let pray PDP snatch more votes from APC. Obi can't still get that number in SE |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by WhizdomXX(m): 1:35pm On Feb 01, 2023 |
The major problem is 25%.. |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Deprofessional(m): 1:37pm On Feb 01, 2023 |
Apophenia24k: |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by wegevv: 2:33pm On Feb 01, 2023 |
They also excluded Rivers state in their poll which has the 4th highest number of registered voters and usually votes similar to SE states. Hence LPs numbers are suppressed in the SS. OP can you please redo the percentages with "undecided" and "undisclosed" voters excluded? That should show a truer percentage to know who is likely to achieve the 25% spread 1 Like |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by wegevv: 2:45pm On Feb 01, 2023 |
I did it myself. Here I've removed the undecided and undisclosed so that the percentage is divided by the 3 candidates instead. Ideally I should also include NNPP but OP removed them and I've just carried on with that. Still you can see that the LP is well below 25% in the NW and NE. Even if LP get 25% in all the states in the other regions, which is unlikely, he would still need 25% from one more state to be able to win at the first ballot. LP are expected to be competitive in states like Kaduna and Taraba though so it is achievable
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| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Deprofessional(m): 7:13am On Feb 02, 2023 |
Apophenia24k: I have assumed a 100% voter turnout which is impracticable. Reduce turnout by 50%, LP will still lead the pack as the party that got the highest number of votes 1 Like |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Deprofessional(m): 10:48am On Feb 03, 2023 |
onez: |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by garfield1: 11:17am On Feb 03, 2023 |
[quote author=Deprofessional post=120597154][/quote] Op,your being clever by a quarter.how come you gave se 100% turnout but refused to do so in ne,ne,sw? Do you realize se usually have the lowest turnout |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Deprofessional(m): 9:00pm On Feb 03, 2023 |
garfield1: I'm not sure you read the post and studied the attached. |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Ennoloa: 9:04pm On Feb 03, 2023 |
Just because Wike might give APC 25% For LP to win on First ballot They need 25% in 2 out of this 3, Kwara, Kogi, Niger They also need 25% in 3 out of this 5, Adamawa, Taraba,Bauchi, Yobe & Borno Then they win on first ballot If not they go against PDP or APC on 2nd ballot Vote Labour party 1 Like |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by garfield1: 9:36pm On Feb 03, 2023 |
Deprofessional: I did.you only gave se turnout 100% |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by garfield1: 9:38pm On Feb 03, 2023 |
Deprofessional: Yes but tinubu will overtake obi |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Sammy07: 9:47pm On Feb 03, 2023 |
What I'm sure is Tinubu is winning 70% SW and 47% North Central. 40% in NE and 35% in NW Probably 30% in SS and 20% in SE |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Deprofessional(m): 9:37am On Feb 04, 2023 |
Sammy07: You don't even understand the gang up against your Tinubu in the north. Is Lagos and Ondo part of the SW states Tinubu will get 70%? |
| Re: Bantupage Poll: An Indept Analysis by Sammy07: 11:08am On Feb 04, 2023 |
Deprofessional: 100% He will get 60 - 70% of the votes in Ondo and Lagos |
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