[quote author=id4sho post=120709148] 2019 Election result
The All Progressives Congress (APC) polled 798,428 votes to beat the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which scored 209,313 votes in Bauchi State.
That was North vs North. And Buhari is force to reckon with in the entire north then.

SpecialAdviser:
Atiku and Tinubu will never take Nigeria forward. EFCC will just be used against anyone opposing them and wine and dine with anyone supporting them.

Get sense. Vote Wisely

hmmm

garfield1:


With obi taking most of his votes from nc,the margin might be above 400k.in a tight nc,an outright victory is not needed,a simple victory is ok.every vote is important.Tinubu might just use nc to cancel or half atiku lead in core north.
Even if he can't,the sw will give the killing blow to atiku.it will now be tinubu vs obi

It won't be above 400k votes as you can say APC didn't lose any voters,plus same faith ticket.
I see AA running away with the north including NC,as in the way Tofa won, although with 171k margin. It's just that SW gives it's own bloc votes, and Obi eating Into PDP traditional strongholds in SS/SE, kills a part of AA chance.
SW may just give Tinubu victory unless the SS caucus of PDP gives their all.
It's still Tinubu vs AA, not Obi

Aiel123:

It won't be above 400k votes as you can say APC didn't lose any voters,plus same faith ticket.
I see AA running away with the north including NC,as in the way Tofa won, although with 171k margin. It's just that SW gives it's own bloc votes, and Obi eating Into PDP traditional strongholds in SS/SE, kills a part of AA chance.
SW may just give Tinubu victory unless the SS caucus of PDP gives their all.
It's still Tinubu vs AA, not Obi

There is no how atiku wins nc.all opinion polls shows him third there which is bad.if he is to win,it is ne/nw.I dont know the calculus you are using to give him nc. Those against mm prefer obi....
True,he may win north like tofa narrowly but tofa lost nc.he lost borno yobe because of kingibe and shettima is still there.
Atiku can still win ss narrowly but his chances are evaporating.you yourself said he will struggle in delta.wike would have come in handy.obi might just have the highest votes

garfield1:


There is no how atiku wins nc.all opinion polls shows him third there which is bad.if he is to win,it is ne/nw.I dont know the calculus you are using to give him nc. Those against mm prefer obi....
True,he may win north like tofa narrowly but tofa lost nc.he lost borno yobe because of kingibe and shettima is still there.
Atiku can still win ss narrowly but his chances are evaporating.you yourself said he will struggle in delta.wike would have come in handy.obi might just have the highest votes

I'm being misunderstood.
I meant AA will win Northern Nigeria ( combo of NE,NW and NC)I wasn't singling out NC as where AA will win because I know the damage Obi will do here, which ordinarily would have been in AA favor,or to some extent narrow APC winning numbers.
But still,it won't be enough as SW is being defiantly ready to get Tinubu to Aso villa, unless the south caucus of PDP wakes up and take this election as if their life's depends on it.
I won't take Obi for granted especially in SS.
Can you explain how Obi can get the highest votes?

Dododawa01:


You be mumu but just note todays date. Atiku or tinubu will be Nigeria President. They will hold 1st or 2nd position. your candidate will be fighting for 3rd and 4th. You will be shocked.

nah u be d real mumu....70 years old man.....Among d 3 candidate who do u think wud deliver.... keep supporting evil cus of #10,000 suffer never tire u.....

Aiel123:

I'm being misunderstood.
I meant AA will win Northern Nigeria ( combo of NE,NW and NC)I wasn't singling out NC as where AA will win because I know the damage Obi will do here, which ordinarily would have been in AA favor,or to some extent narrow APC winning numbers.
But still,it won't be enough as SW is being defiantly ready to get Tinubu to Aso villa, unless the south caucus of PDP wakes up and take this election as if their life's depends on it.
I won't take Obi for granted especially in SS.
Can you explain how Obi can get the highest votes?

There is a strong possibility that se can record a huge turnout like 6 mil and 5.5 going to obi.let's assume turnout in ss is 5 mil and obi gets 3 mil.that is 8.5 mil.I calculate obi to get 1 mil in sw and 1.5 mil up north.that is 11 mil.
Then on the other hand, ne nw records low turnout like 10 mil with tinubu and atiku getting 4 mil each and then each of them gets 1 mil in nc.highest tinubu will get in sw is 3 mil and atiku 1 mil.they obviously won't meet up in se/ss.

garfield1:


There is a strong possibility that se can record a huge turnout like 6 mil and 5.5 going to obi.let's assume turnout in ss is 5 mil and obi gets 3 mil.that is 8.5 mil.I calculate obi to get 1 mil in sw and 1.5 mil up north.that is 11 mil.
Then on the other hand, ne nw records low turnout like 10 mil with tinubu and atiku getting 4 mil each and then each of them gets 1 mil in nc.highest tinubu will get in sw is 3 mil and atiku 1 mil.they obviously won't meet up in se/ss.

Ok
PO should be genuinely concerned on reaching the 25% in two third
And I won't rule out the possibility of Tinubu winning in the north.
You aligns with Stears poll, with high voters turnout, you gave Obi victory.

Aiel123:

Ok
PO should be genuinely concerned on reaching the 25% in two third
And I won't rule out the possibility of Tinubu winning in the north.
You aligns with Stears poll, with high voters turnout, you gave Obi victory.

That is it.what will kills ob's chances is him not meeting the spread or his strongholds recording low turnout.
I am not aligning with stears but the poll looks somehow acceptable just like the Bantu poll and the first anap polls last year.

garfield1:


That is it.what will kills ob's chances is him not meeting the spread or his strongholds recording low turnout.
I am not aligning with stears but the poll looks somehow acceptable just like the Bantu poll and the first anap polls last year.

You said it yourself: Obi chances increases with high turnout in his stronghold and falters otherwise.

Aiel123:

You said it yourself: Obi chances increases with high turnout in his stronghold and falters otherwise.

I pray it doesnt as usual.his inability to penetrate the core north is another issue

garfield1:


I pray it doesnt as usual.his inability to penetrate the core north is another issue

How far he can go in the core north will determine if he's to stand a chance or not.
Digitron,that obidient guy here,so far has been the only one seeing this.
I saw his post telling obidients not to get intoxicated with nextier poll but work more in the north. NC and NE was his consideration.

Aiel123:

How far he can go in the core north will determine if he's to stand a chance or not.
Digitron,that obidient guy here,so far has been the only one seeing this.
I saw his post telling obidients not to get intoxicated with nextier poll but work more in the north. NC and NE was his consideration.

True.Digitron is another objective obidient apart from immaculatejoe.on a flipside,all these polls are like expos for apc and pdp.it has shown them their weakness and strengths.they now know where to hit obi and how to deploy resources

garfield1:


True.Digitron is another objective obidient apart from immaculatejoe.on a flipside,all these polls are like expos for apc and pdp.it has shown them their weakness and strengths.they now know where to hit obi and how to deploy resources

By now I believe people already know who they're voting for. Any other input will only yield little.
Obi really try sha. Look what he's done in little time.

Aiel123:

By now I believe people already know who they're voting for. Any other input will only yield little.
Obi really try sha. Look what he's done in little time.

True.he has tried.but I still maintain that he is not trying in the rural areas.I went to adim community,the biggest in biase lga and the population was divided.I saw only three obi posters.most of those supporting him are non indigenes

garfield1:


True.he has tried.but I still maintain that he is not trying in the rural areas.I went to adim community,the biggest in biase lga and the population was divided.I saw only three obi posters.most of those supporting him are non indigenes

You see this rural areas of a thing is another bottleneck for Obi
Those rural areas votes according to either their ruler or a strong man directive.
Prior to the governorship election in Delta in Ika south,it was heard that a community fined any body that will vote for APC a goat.
Even an APC ward chairman in my ward shared the story of a clandestine plot at night hatched with the PDP to vote for Okowa as their own against Ogboru.
Rural areas shouldn't be downplayed.

Aiel123:

You see this rural areas of a thing is another bottleneck for Obi
Those rural areas votes according to either their ruler or a strong man directive.
Prior to the governorship election in Delta in Ika south,it was heard that a community fined any body that will vote for APC a goat.
Even an APC ward chairman in my ward shared the story of a clandestine plot at night hatched with the PDP to vote for Okowa as their own against Ogboru.
Rural areas shouldn't be downplayed.

That is what I've been telling all these obidients.many rural areas are inaccessible and only apc and pdp knows the terrains and has the resources to penetrate everywhere.again,many of these polling agents were formerly pdp or apc members and will easily sell obi.there are several meetings in my lga and lp isn't being considered except for hon dansuki who is going for senate.sometimes,voters are even coerced or threatened to vote a particular party.yesterday,boys loyal to the deputy speaker of crsha threatened voters planning to vote pdp and attacked pdp excos in akpabuyo.you already know of hon doguwa's threat

Aiel123:

He will be well beaten.
Bauchi, Adamawa, Taraba and Gombe ( a tie) will give AA the edge in NE.
You saw what happened at APC rally in Katsina yesterday shey
I

Gombe is unlikely to be a tie, dem go flog asiwaju for there.

id4sho:
2019 Election result
The All Progressives Congress (APC) polled 798,428 votes to beat the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which scored 209,313 votes in Bauchi State

I get am before no be property.

Atiku is coming

COFFINSELLER:
PART 1


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3-yuso4Khg



PART 2


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJb7fy9G6aE

You people Yoruba Muslims spreading fake news and propaganda, you guys will learn new things

Atiku is still in this race