The north
The Northern voters are mostly expected to vote along religious lines with some pockets of tribal sentiments in Kwara and Kogi. This is because of the raging religious disagreement which the Fulani herdsmen militia have escalated during Buhari's regime, so the northern Christians are weary of Muslims and Northerners from Fulani extraction.

1. Northern Christian enclaves.
This places includes plateau state (95% Christians), Benue (90%), Taraba (70%), Adamawa (50%), Nasarawa (30%), Gombe (30%), kogi (40%).

Expect this parts of the north to give a Christian many votes, except fom Kogi which I understand that many Christians here are also Yorubas and will most likely vote for Tinubu for tribal reasons.

2. Northern Muslim enclaves.
This includes every other part of the north. These places are more likely to vote for Muslims.

Data suggests that 50million of the total 93million voters are from thr north.
Christians are about 20% in the north while Muslims are 80% which translates to 10million and 40million respectively based on PVC holders.
Which means 4million and 16million Christians and Muslims are expected to vote respectively.

I project, on the basis of 40% voters turn out that:

1. Peter will get 70% Christian and 3% of Muslim votes which is 3.3million votes approx.

2. Atiku will get 40% Muslim votes and 15% Christian votes, which is 6.8million votes

3. Tinubu will get 35% Muslim votes and 5% Christians (mostly from Kogi, kogi's voting bloc is small), which is 4.4million votes.

4. Kwankwaso will get 22% of Muslim votes, which is 3.5milliom votes approx.

The South

Voting in the south will be more complex, it will be a mixture of ethnicity, religion and competence.

The south about 80% Christians, 20% Muslims, 35% Yorubas, 30% Igbo and 35% other ethic groups. To be realistic, the election in the south is between Tinubu supporters and others basically.

So the question is, where are Tinubu supporters in the south?
They are majorly within the southwestern Muslim demography and also part of the Southwestern Christians.

SouthWest got 19m+ registered voters. Southwest has abhistory of voters apathy, this is due to the fact that many people from Lagos do not end up voting. So I will give southwest a voters turn out of 35%. That's 6.7m votes approximately.

SouthWest is about 50% Muslim, 45% Christians but for the purpose of this analysis, let us assume that is 50/50.

1. Tinubu is going to get 80% of Muslim votes and 40% of Christians, that's approximately 4million votes. (he's going to be getting so much Christian votes for tribal reasons)

2. Peter Obi is going to get 50% Christian votes and 10% Muslim votes making it 2million votes (he's going to be getting so much Christian voted for competence and religious reasons)

3. Atiku will get 10% and 10% Muslim voted, which is 670k votes.

Southsouth and southeast

These regions will vote massively for Christian candidate and again for tribal reasons. Both region together have 25million registered voters.
I also predict 35% voters turnout, which is 8.75million voters.
Let's assume this region is 100% Christians, but I think It's about 95%.


1. Peter Obi will get 70% of votes here, which is 6.1 million votes approx

2. Atiku will get 20% votes here (he's vice is from here and he's a Christian), which is 1.75million votes

3. I see Tinubu getting 10%, Muslim-muslim ticket won't sell and competence is an issue, which is 875k votes.




Total votes Per candidate

Peter Obi: 11.4million votes
Atiku: 9.2million votes approximately
Tinubu: 9.3million approximately
Kwankwaso: 3.5million

weldone

Some people wey no suppose dy put mouth for election go dy do analysis dy mock themselves

peepydelano:
Some people wey no suppose dy put mouth for election go dy do analysis dy mock themselves

I don't expect it to agree with your sentiment

Very realistic.

Children that should be playing outside will be giving analysis.

Stop giving people false hope.


Obi wont win.

The earlier you prepare your mind, don't make people to drink sniper on 27th February..

Why na only religion ipob know

Nice breakdown.

Wow

If Nigerian soldiers prevent Tinubu from using his thugs to disrupt election in Lagos and other southwestern States, Tinubu may lose Lagos which if there is 40% turnout, and Obi gets 55% votes and Tinubu get 40% votes, Peter Obi will not only humiliate him, he will go ahead to expand his lead in Ogun and Ondo. Tinubu can only win Ekiti state without rigging.

frank14011991:
Why na only religion ipob know

Because Peter Obi is still the most competent.

Since APC made it a religious battle with the Muslim Muslim ticket, we Will beat them in their own game.

Great work.

Workch:
Because Peter Obi is still the most competent.

Since APC made it a religious battle with the Muslim Muslim ticket, we Will beat them in their own game.

shebi next week no far, if una fit believe say dem clone buhari, una go believe say obi go win

FatherOfJesus:
The north
The Northern voters are mostly expected to vote along religious lines with some pockets of tribal sentiments in Kwara and Kogi. This is because of the raging religious disagreement which the Fulani herdsmen militia have escalated during Buhari's regime, so the northern Christians are weary of Muslims and Northerners from Fulani extraction.

1. Northern Christian enclaves.
This places includes plateau state (95% Christians), Benue (90%), Taraba (70%), Adamawa (50%), Nasarawa (30%), Gombe (30%), kogi (40%).

Expect this parts of the north to give a Christian many votes, except fom Kogi which I understand that many Christians here are also Yorubas and will most likely vote for Tinubu for tribal reasons.

2. Northern Muslim enclaves.
This includes every other part of the north. These places are more likely to vote for Muslims.

Data suggests that 50million of the total 93million voters are from thr north.
Christians are about 20% in the north while Muslims are 80% which translates to 10million and 40million respectively based on PVC holders.
Which means 4million and 16million Christians and Muslims are expected to vote respectively.

I project, on the basis of 40% voters turn out that:

1. Peter will get 70% Christian and 3% of Muslim votes which is 3.3million votes approx.

2. Atiku will get 40% Muslim votes and 15% Christian votes, which is 6.8million votes

3. Tinubu will get 35% Muslim votes and 5% Christians (mostly from Kogi, kogi's voting bloc is small), which is 4.4million votes.

4. Kwankwaso will get 22% of Muslim votes, which is 3.5milliom votes approx.

The South

Voting in the south will be more complex, it will be a mixture of ethnicity, religion and competence.

The south about 80% Christians, 20% Muslims, 35% Yorubas, 30% Igbo and 35% other ethic groups. To be realistic, the election in the south is between Tinubu supporters and others basically.

So the question is, where are Tinubu supporters in the south?
They are majorly within the southwestern Muslim demography and also part of the Southwestern Christians.

SouthWest got 19m+ registered voters. Southwest has abhistory of voters apathy, this is due to the fact that many people from Lagos do not end up voting. So I will give southwest a voters turn out of 35%. That's 6.7m votes approximately.

SouthWest is about 50% Muslim, 45% Christians but for the purpose of this analysis, let us assume that is 50/50.

1. Tinubu is going to get 80% of Muslim votes and 40% of Christians, that's approximately 4million votes. (he's going to be getting so much Christian votes for tribal reasons)

2. Peter Obi is going to get 50% Christian votes and 10% Muslim votes making it 2million votes (he's going to be getting so much Christian voted for competence and religious reasons)

3. Atiku will get 10% and 10% Muslim voted, which is 670k votes.

Southsouth and southeast

These regions will vote massively for Christian candidate and again for tribal reasons. Both region together have 25million registered voters.
I also predict 35% voters turnout, which is 8.75million voters.
Let's assume this region is 100% Christians, but I think It's about 95%.


1. Peter Obi will get 70% of votes here, which is 6.1 million votes approx

2. Atiku will get 20% votes here (he's vice is from here and he's a Christian), which is 1.75million votes

3. I see Tinubu getting 10%, Muslim-muslim ticket won't sell and competence is an issue, which is 875k votes.




Total votes Per candidate

Peter Obi: 11.4million votes
Atiku: 9.2million votes approximately
Tinubu: 9.3million approximately
Kwankwaso: 3.5million

This is the most reasonable analysis I have seen in recent times.

However, this time around, South East will have more than 35% turnout out of which Obi will get nothing less than 90%.

A false hope.

frank14011991:
shebi next week no far, if una fit believe say dem clone buhari, una go believe say obi go win

You and who believe, you dey make jargons up

Wow this is sure truth